10 Crop Marketing Topics & A Look at the Future

[00:00:00] It doesn't matter who you speak to across the prairies, if you're growing a wheat crop here in 2025, there's a good chance you're undersold. If you're a buyer, you have nothing bought. And if you're an analyst, you're sitting there saying, what the heck did I do? Well, the answer is nothing or very little. We're all in this together when it comes to wheat marketing. Let's try to change that for you and your farm right now at episode 88. Let's rock and roll. [00:00:30] Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast, your quick guide to better farming decisions. [00:00:43] All right, folks, welcome into episode 88 of the what the Futures podcast. Of course, recorded each and every week in the UPL studio. And. And it's. It feels good to be back in studio. I know it's still shambles back there. I promise you one day I will find the time to tidy this thing up. But it feels good to be back in studio. Thanks for tolerating the quality of last week's short episode. You know, sometimes you're on the road and you gotta. You gotta get something down, and it's just the way to go. I want to give a shout out here, a big shout out to upl. They are stepping up in a big way for the Crop Marketing Made Cool conference happening in Moose Jaw. They're going to be our stage sponsor. We will be having the conference on the UPL stage down in Moose Jaw. So big thank you to them. Don't forget about your UPL reps at harvest time, folks. Reach out to them, talk about the products you use, the performance. Start to build that plan for 2026 as well. We have a doozy of an episode here. I've actually, I. Oh, man, I chicken scratched this out, but I. I've narrowed it down to 10 crop marketing things that, that we're going to talk about. That's a heavy list. But I. I feel like last week we didn't really get into it much, so there's a lot of things to cover. All right. I was a bit of a. I don't know how to say this. I don't want to curse on the show, but a couple things I did that, you know, caused a few to raise eyebrows. I want to talk about that and I want to talk about all sorts of things. Harvest pressure, weather. I got some weather stuff to throw out there. Basis on wheat. Big beautiful put how that's going. Yeah. Freight costs. There's. There's lots on the list here this week. It's been, it's been active, it's been busy and in fact, you know, my bag behind me is packed. I'm, I'm, I'm going to do a presentation here on Thursday. I'm heading out to Jacob's. Jacob brings together 400 of his closest friends in the shop and throws a hum dinger of a party. [00:02:41] And I get to take the stage after Trent Clarenback. Trent Clarenback's definitely the, the highlight speaker at this one, but I'll be there as well. Having a good time talking market. So I've been a little bit inspired after putting some content together together for that. All right, so hang out with me here for episode 88 and we'll get into that in just a few minutes. Before we talk markets, let's get some of these odds and ends out of the way. [00:03:08] Now please do me a favor. You guys have been doing actually fantastic. By the end of summer, I want to have 500 subscribers on YouTube. I don't know where we're at. I have no clue. But I know that it's going up. So give us a follow, a subscribe a like even a review. Give me a review. Apple, Spotify, you can send me an email. Ryan, the futurespodcast ca Just let me know what you think of the show. [00:03:30] And I don't know why we ask for those, but I apparently they are important at times, but it gives me a. Hey, a little pulse on what you're feeling out there. Okay, so send in those reviews or post them. [00:03:45] Heck, even go on X. If you want to roast me on X, have at it. That'll be fun. All right, so throw some reviews out there. I appreciate that. I've got four, I'm going to say four packages left. So two hats, a what? The futures flag and a T shirt were thrown in there. T shirts actually came in today. So I've got four packages left. Two hats, flag, t shirt, 100 bucks. I pay the shipping again. Email me Ryan, what the futurespodcast ca all the money is going to the Canadian center for Agricultural well being. We've raised 10 grand for that organization here over the last month. [00:04:21] And just wrapping up the last of the great hats here from our designer paisley and the fun we had at Egg in Motion. Now harvest is on because Carl. [00:04:33] So I've presented a Jacob's thing a couple times, right? And so last year I had a picture of Carl. [00:04:41] He was harvesting already and I guess this is normal for his neck of the woods in southern Saskatchewan. But he's out harvesting as well. And we thought it would be a good week here to launch our Harvest Photo Contest. All right, so hang out here for a second. We're going to do your pictures. You got to submit them. Ryand ca photo contest or photo dash contest. You can see it on the website. Not hard to find. And submit your photos. That gets you entered to potentially win a VIP trip. All right? We're talking airplane here. We're talking a little vacation time for you and your partner, your spouse, right? We're going to send you to Halifax to take in the entirety of the 2025 Montana's Canadian curling Trials, tickets to every single draw. So if you're a curling fan, this is right up your alley. And, Mom, I know you're listening, you do not qualify. All right? We've talked about this, so appreciate you helping us organize this, but you're. [00:05:52] You don't qualify, all right? My mom's a huge, huge curling fan. So you get two full event tickets, all right? Every draw, you get access. VIP access to the lounge now in the lounge, three square meals a day, all right? So all the food included as well at the event in that lounge. There's also a $200 shopping spree that you're going to go on. This is for merch. We're going to pay for your flights. And I am on it. I booked the hotel as well. So you got eight nights in the hotel. [00:06:25] So all of that, that's the package we're giving away. It's going to be. [00:06:30] We're going to draw for this thing in mid October. But the event is, I believe, November 22nd to November 30th, right around there. All right? So end of November is when you'd have to be available again. [00:06:41] Submit your Harvest photos to ryandani ca photo contest, and let's have some fun with it. If you want to tag us on social media, by all means, put your photo out there. Tag us. Carl, if you're listening, I know you've been slugging it out there with the P's, sending some of those pictures, man, and start getting your name entered for the contest. There's no restriction here. You submit a picture, and that's how you get entered, all right? They can't submit the same picture over and over, but submit a picture, and that's how you get entered. I promise you, folks, the odds will be phenomenal. All right? It'll be phenomenal. So if you're a curling fan, this is for you, all right? [00:07:22] I don't know what the heck happened. I don't know why I spooked you guys with the whole voicemail thing on the website. It's not that hard, okay? You just click a button. You'll see in a second. Wilhelmina did it today. It's very simple, all right? My four year old going on five here in the next couple weeks, she figured it out. But did I scare you with the question? Did I scare you with you having to say something positive about your crop marketing service, your subscription, your analyst, your advisor? Just a little something, like something cool that they picked up on that made you some money in the last year? I don't know, maybe that was too complicated. So we're gonna. We're gonna slow it down. All right, I'm gonna pause for a second here. Let's get Wilhelmina's version, and let's see if you guys can. Can get going here for this week. I've got a different question for you. So hang on. Let's turn it over to Wilhelmina for a second. [00:08:18] This is Finn and Willa. [00:08:20] And what do you guys do? We, Finley, love to play chapters. No, you're supposed to say, I listen to the what the Futures podcast. I listen to the what the futures broadcast. And Finley likes chapters. And I like Barbies. Woo. And Finley also likes cars. [00:08:38] It's that easy, folks. It is that easy. You click a button, you say what you want to say, you put in your name. It's actually optional to put your name in there, but your name in your email. Yeah, you can win some wrenches. 11 piece metric wrenches. The big ones are in there. Even the big wrenches are in there. It's not the small ones, it's the big ones. These are good wrenches, folks. Great John Deere wrenches. And my kids are winning and I need these. I actually want these for myself. So my kids are winning right now and I have no shame. I will. They will win these if you guys don't step up. All right, so for this week, all you have to do is go to the whatthefuturespodcast ca website, click on the voicemail button and say, hey, hey, Ryan. Hey, what the futures. My name is Blah. I am from town, here, wherever, and I listen to the what the futures podcast. That's it. That's all you have to say. Put in your name, your email. You'll be entered in to win these wrenches. And we're drawing for that. I think I said August 29th, right? Yeah, I did. So there we go, folks. That's all you need to do. Don't be afraid. We may play a few on the episode. We may not. Right? So don't be shy. If Willa can do it, you guys can certainly, certainly do it. Of course. The voicemail. [00:09:59] The weekly voicemail challenge here is sponsored by the Crop Marketing Made cool conference happening December 9th to 11th in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan. Temple Garden Spa is where we're staying. [00:10:12] And we're going to be announcing some of the agenda and the speakers here, some of the topics by the end of the month, by the end of August here. We're just finalizing a few things now. We also have one of our partners for the conference. They've stepped up here. We're going to do a webinar. I know you hear webinar and you cringe. [00:10:33] Maybe. What's a fancier way to say that we're going to have an online meeting. Is that better? I don't know. I'll think about how to word that properly. But we have a partner that there's a topic so important that they want to discuss here with us that will have an impact on your farm financials for 2026, that we're going to put this meeting on early because it can't wait for until December, needs to happen in the next probably a month or so. So we're working on those details right now. Those that have a ticket will be invited to this event and we'll be invited. If you have a conference ticket, you'll be invited to this online meeting, fancy meeting, or get the recording so that you can listen to it multiple times while you're harvesting. [00:11:16] But that was a cool development here over the last couple days, so stay tuned for that. All right, let's talk crop marketing here. We're what, 10 minutes in, 12 minutes in. Let's talk crop marketing now. I've got my list of 10 things and it, like, I'll just start off with folks. Like it is. [00:11:33] Like, it's. It's been busy. Like, it's. It's been. [00:11:37] I just think of even today, you know, the stuff that we were working on today with, with some of the clients and, and with the lunchbox crew. Like, it's. There's a lot going on here. It's been busy. I feel like. I know that maybe wheat sales generally are shy, but other than that, I feel like in a pretty good position ahead of harvest lows, if we want to call it that. So it's been busy. I think that what makes it busy is that you are seeking these little Victories and you're making a bunch of maybe tinier decisions that you are looking at for that to lead to some positivity on the balance sheet, some positivity in your cash flow, some positivity in your margins. And so it's not as easy as being in a bullish market where, you know, you just wait and wait and wait. Or. Yeah. Or being in a straight bearish market where you just sell as fast as you can and get ahead of this thing. Like it just hasn't been that easy here the last number of months. It's been lots of small decisions adding up here and just takes more time, takes more energy and yeah, you just have to be on top of it a bit more. So I'm going to put my foot in my mouth here right off the start again, I got about 10 here, so we'll call this number one. But I took a screenshot as well. We have a weak contract for 842A bushel. All right, now, you know, five, six, eight years ago I would have took that screenshot, put it on X and said, hey, look at this 842 wheat contract. Four people would have responded, where did you get that? That's baloney. [00:13:16] And yeah, I would have had to explain it and whatever. [00:13:21] Now I have 842 wheat, I have farms I work with that have north of $9 wheat. [00:13:28] 908 is one that I wrote down here. Hard red spring wheat. We have CPS wheat in the high eights. And you know, the reason I'm saying I'm putting my foot in my mouth is there's no, there's. Those contracts aren't. They aren't big enough. They aren't big enough. You sit there and you look at them and say, well, that's going to be my high of the year. Right? In crop marketing, you have a high and a low. You have a contract that's the best and one that's the worst every single year. [00:13:54] And I can just sit here and say, well, those are, you know, not far from $2 a bushel better than posted bids. I'm, um, yeah, I'm going to chalk those up is probably the highs that I'm going to see for the 2025 wheat crop. But the reason that I brought it up is that I've talked about this on the pod the last couple of weeks. But there's carry in this wheat market. [00:14:18] Futures are paying you to store it. And that carry goes into next year, into next fall, into. You're going to grow another crop before that, you know, before that month expires. So there's carry here and what I want to highlight to people in conversation is that the market gives you these opportunities and you have to, you know, consider them like for example, and this was, this happened back in the day as well. But the problem with these contracts is that we could only accomplish this in a few spots. We could accomplish this at like this, our 842 contracts at G3. The 908 is at G3. G3. Patterson couldn't really get this done at Vitarra because these futures were locked in in May and June of last year. Right. A long time ago. Over a year ago is when these futures were locked in. Where else did we do these at G3? Patterson, you could have done this with Cargill as well. And so the reason a brick comes up, I want to bring it up in conversation is that, you know, if you look, if you looked at next year and you know, I'm not, this is not a recommendation on that. I want you to, to take today from, from me. But if you take spring wheat, for example, and you look from September to September, we're talking about 75 cents of carry, 75 cents a bushel. If someone offered you 75 cents a bushel more today for your wheat that you haven't sold yet, that you're about to harvest, you would be like, you'd be taking that, right? And so like when I look at the 645September futures, the 660December 2026 futures, like that's $8 wheat. In Alberta, spring wheat maybe a little bit better. You don't know, you don't know what basis is going to do. But you know that that's the path of, of something around that. Which means in Saskatchewan, I'm going to be at around a 750. Now my fertilizer costs looks like they're going up. We're going to try to hold them as close to the same as possible, but probably going up 5%. Right. So at 750 in Saskatchewan, when I, when we have had years where we're just not getting the, not getting the yields, not getting the weather to get the yields we need, it's really, really hard to go and forward contract that that's been one of the problems this year. All right, but that doesn't mean that there won't be an opportunity here over the next couple of weeks. In fact, we already have some, we contracted for next year. You know, if I'm speaking truthfully here, we we do have something done. We have done, yeah, some stuff for next year already. And that looks like it's going to line up to be in the mid eights in Alberta and low eights in, in Saskatchewan. But you know, you go back here, What, July? [00:17:16] Yeah, July 10th. Pardon me? July 3rd. July 10th. I think we're trading around 690. You know, you add 30, 40 cents to this and there may be a path for you to get some contracting done. So my, my final point here on this one is, is that you just, you have to look, you have to be a little bit more creative here and if there's something that lines up in the future to do some contracting, then there you go. I'll tell you for me, not today, on August 6th, but I've been a bit more aggressive for next year. Going back, going back a couple of weeks here, going back a month or so, been a little bit more aggressive than I was for the 25 crop. We'll see, we'll see if that pays off. But again, many different ways to manage this and trying to build a baseline price. So anyways, we'll leave it at that for now. All right, So I know that this is number two, all right. I know that when you look at wheat marketing and everybody you talk to is in the same boat as you, I guarantee you that there's somebody out there that's been a bit more aggressive. In fact, I talked to a farm today that I do some work with and we were reviewing percent solds and they were north of 50% sold on wheat, which is awesome. So it exists. But generally speaking, we're all in this together. When you talk about wheat marketing and you know, I looked at some of the big, the big popular analysts out there as well across the prairies and there's just not a lot done, Just not a lot done from them, not a lot done from farmers. And the buyers have nothing bought. The problem I have with this, the concern I have is that, and I was asked this question this week, if I have to pick between canola and wheat and I need to market something for cash flow, do I market my canola or what should I market? Was the question out of those two. You know, before this little sell off, canola was the answer. You're closer to the high of the market. You could sell at a profit in this scenario. They could sell at a decent profit. You know, it's the one that, that made sense. That's what we're going to do across the prairies. We're Going to try to sell some peas and some lentils. We're going to try to sell some malt barley. We're going to try to sell crops that we are looking at breakevens or maybe some profit and get those sold first. We're all gonna sit on our wheat. I listened to a respected broker I respect today just talking about their conversations with farmers of everyone's storing wheat and wheat marketing in the winter. Say last year's a little bit of an exception. It's not that fun. [00:19:54] Like, it is not that fun looking for a wheat futures rally in the wintertime when there's just not a lot of wheat grown during that time. Like, there's always a wheat crop being harvested, but it's, it's Russia, it's Ukraine. Those, you know, when those crops are growing, like, okay, maybe we get a little winter wheat planting action here, some concerns there. But you know, during the month of October, November, December, January, February, like, it is tough wheat marketing. You guys know this, this isn't new. And so now I'm going to tell you that we're all going to put our weed in the bins and we're all going to try to market our weed at the same time this winter. This doesn't work. This doesn't work unless a demand story presents itself that just shocks us and comes out of nowhere, I guess, to move this market in a big way. Like, and I'm with you folks, I'm with you. Like, we had our farm meeting yesterday and what was a wheat price worth looking at? 6. Oh, man, 665 or something like that. Like, you know, yeah, there's nothing, not much going on there. But I just, I want to say if we're all in this together and you're all going to bin your wheat, I just don't expect, I'm not expecting any miracles here from a price perspective. Okay? You're gonna have to string together multiple decisions here to build your wheat price. [00:21:26] This is for those of you that have Nothing sold on August 6th. Looking forward, like, you're gonna have to make multiple decisions here, multiple moves, multiple strategies to build a price. And that might involve things like selling futures or buying puts or looking for to add 25 cents on a play that you know where futures are dropping or maybe you get. We are gonna have rallies, folks. I'm not saying we're not, but we're gonna have rallies. But, you know, we're trying to piece together these little 25 cent moves to build a decent price, all right? And if we're all putting it in the bin, folks. [00:22:07] Oh, man. Yeah, it just doesn't turn out. It does not turn out that well. So my number three is basis. You know, basis, contract. Do I put things on a basis contract? [00:22:19] I believe basis is going to have a little pop here. I believe it's already been happening. [00:22:25] A little pop, a little gain. [00:22:28] And it's that little gain that's to get those first trains filled. It's the buyer's saying, hey, you know, we're. We're going to try to get something done here, get something on the books. One farm I, I was working with here this week, you know, we were dealing with bungay, vitera, bungay, bungee, vitera. And, you know, they came with a. With a weed offer that, that made sense for that farm to move. Move wheat in the fall here off combine. So there's some negotiation there happening. So that pop is already there. It's already coming in for some of you. And then if the wheat crop is looking pretty good or looking, you know, quite strong, then that's gonna fade away. [00:23:13] And so I'm not a big. I'm not bullish. [00:23:17] I'm not really bullish basis after this little pop here in the next days or maybe weeks for some of you. [00:23:24] After that, we'll see. We'll see what happens with harvest, we'll see what happens with yield. But I would expect some wheat to make it to market here and pressure basis a little bit more. I also, from a currency perspective, I don't look at the Canadian dollar in the sense of a big downward trend here to help us export. I don't know. [00:23:48] I don't see that either. So I think basis has a quick pop, then I think it relaxes. And I just am not confident that we'll see huge base gains until later on in the spring or. Or if we have a really wonky harvest. All right, so my point here is basis, quick pop and wheat now, not. Not later, not in the. [00:24:12] Not at harvest time, but now instead. Now you may sit here and say, well, Ryan, if we all throw it in the bin, then they have no choice but to basis. Well, yeah, maybe. All right, number four here is just about weather. And I don't want to talk about this one. [00:24:27] Oh, man. [00:24:28] The one thing that could have an impact on wheat here is weather. And what I mean by that is it's been a moment, it's been a minute since we've had a really strange grade pattern. And there's one broker, I was reading their update Today and their updates are phenomenal. They're very good. But today was all about harvest weather and quality concerns. And it was like Durham quality concern, Fusarium lentils. Quality concern, bleaching, you know, green peas, bleaching. [00:25:04] I think there was a mold discussion somewhere in there. Like it was all this like wet and I get it. Some of you have received. [00:25:12] Well, yeah, like a crazy amount of moisture here this week and, and more coming. The long range weather forecast into August 20th is quite wet, which is very good for the north where the fires are up north. It's very good for, for next year's crop. I just, I don't think there's a lot of benefits anymore for this year's crop. [00:25:39] And I know in our farm meeting yesterday, my brother was like, you know, the dryer, the drying system, they've spent a lot of time and energy in that over the last five years and they're ready to use it. My brother said it's ready to rock and roll and he's made some improvements this year, so he's looking forward to it. So we use our dryer every year, but this year I just wonder if we might use it a bit more. We'll see. [00:26:07] So the weather could have an impact to grade spreads. And that's where I could sit here and say, hey, maybe there are some premiums for some number two wheat. If, if we have a bunch of number three hard red out there, maybe there are some premiums for some higher protein. [00:26:24] Like at this point prices are, are so terrible. If you don't need the, the space, then I could say the argument not to do anything right now is to just see how harvest plays out. And maybe the long range forecast is total baloney. Maybe it that rain isn't coming and we have a beautiful fall and beautiful harvest weather. But if we get wet weather or wet fall grade spreads and that could be interesting thing to look at if you can be out there early, get good quality. [00:26:55] Yeah, maybe you will get paid for that this year. It's been a while, but that's something that I'm definitely watching. All right, number five targets. [00:27:05] Probably my favorite question right now is targets, where would you target Ryan? Where would you target a wheat sale? Where would you target a canola sale? [00:27:13] So this one, I split it into two because my target, depending on when you are going to want to generate the cash, my target's different. [00:27:24] So when a farm comes to me and says, hey, I need a target here, what are you aiming for to make a sale? Like if you Said Ryan Canola. What target will you put in on Canola here to make a sale? Well, I'd come back at you and say, oh, well, we're trading 662 as of recording this podcast on the November contract. I'm going to target 6 90, 6, 95, something like that, right. [00:27:52] 6 92. I don't know in there, but if you, if he said, well, you know, Ryan, I just, I've got lots of cash flow. I got lots of movement here for fall. I'm good till Christmas. Like, what's your target then? Well, then my target's going to change. My target's going to say, well, hey, let's get to our harvest lows and then let's see where we go from there. Like, Maybe there's a 7, 10 or 720 involved. Hey, maybe my target is 750 if it's late winter, right? I, I don't know. It changes. So when, you know, I get that asked the question a lot at this time, and my response is, well, if you need to sell it in September or need the money in September, October, then there's no target. [00:28:39] You know, we're, we're, we're pricing it now. Like, you might wait a day or you might wait a couple days for like a little bump here, but really there's no target. [00:28:49] Like if, if you said, hey, Ryan, August 6th here, we're trading at 662. What's my target? I want to get this sold. Well, then I'm just targeting a six. [00:29:00] What, a six 72, something like that? Maybe a 675, right? Tight target, like eight bucks a ton. What is that even worth it? Right? Is that even worth doing at that time? So let's, you know, I love talking targets. I love talking about this, but, you know, when you have your markets are in a downtrend spring, wheat's in a downtrend canola here, you know, it's facing some pressure here right now. The target is no target. If you need to generate the money for fall off combine, something like that. If you need the money next spring. Totally different conversation. All right, number six, Canola. Downside. Now, you know, I'm here and talk of some technical terms out there. I'm hearing head and shoulders pattern, something for us to monitor. I'm not smart enough to know what that is. You know, I take the chart and I just draw a human and I'm like, that's the head and shoulders. Okay. I don't know what it all means, but downside targets here for fall. [00:30:00] Is it going to get scary? I don't know. I know farms I've been chatting with in the lunchbox crew are looking to get out of futures here. They shorted futures right around the 700 and they're looking to get out at 650, 645, something like that. Canola has traded as low as 580 in the last six months. [00:30:24] And in order for that to happen, like I see when I look at a chart, I see, you know, 650 being 645, 650 being a level of support. I think, you know, if you're, if you're sitting here sold at 700, then you know, taking profit at that 650 level, that would make sense to me. And then you might be prepared to short it again. But you know, if you're a farm, you're gonna be long canola. So I, you know, I'm probably holding that short until you're wanted to sell, right, or make that sale. I had a great job with a farm today. A little bit of old crop canola left 60 ton. They had shorted the market, you know, more than 60 ton. I 400 ton short. And I said, well, why don't you just reduce your position to 17 contracts and you know, sell the 60 ton like you hedged yourself anyway a buck higher than where we're at. Just reduce it a little bit, I said, or keep it and protect more new crop. So it's a hedge and I don't think you have to be in too big of a rush to get out of it. But yeah, 650 after that. Just remember folks, we have been as low as 580. But it's policy, biofuel stuff, China stuff like that's what pushes the market lower. That stuff can still come out and happen. [00:31:40] China will make an announcement at some point here on tariffs or on the anti dumping stuff. Right. So it can happen. I just think first level is around that six and a half and then we'll, we'll see from there. I would be surprised to get a little canola recovery mid August into September, long weekend, like that's pretty normal for that to happen. [00:32:00] And then, and then go make that harvest slow. All right, number seven, this is a topic I need to, to dive into. But I, I just saw like my local bungay vitera in Melford, Saskatchewan has a terrible canola basis, absolute terrible canola basis. And I hope it's just new organization getting things figured out. But it came up in, you know, higher CN CP freight rates, you know, kicking in August 1st. [00:32:30] That came up as one of the reasons. And again, I haven't done any research on this yet. I'm going to look into it. But my comment on this is if that is the case, if it was freight rates, then why did my wheat basis get better by 10 bucks, 15 bucks a ton, maybe even 20 bucks a ton now at that same location again, you know, maybe there's something in the background there, part of the basis calculation that that's all been accounted for. But yeah, obviously freight rate definitely comes into play. Freight rates have been going up. It just, yeah, canola basis is terrible. And it came up like, hey, we need to fix our, our issue with, with trade. We need to fix our relationship with China. [00:33:13] Yeah, like, I totally agree with that. But we have exported a tremendous amount of canola seed this year. You know, the talk out there is we're not going to have enough to export for this next year. So I don't know if that's it. I don't know if we need to fix our relationships 100%. We need to get our trade tariff stuff put to bed. We need support. We need strong voices from our government. [00:33:41] We need to get a trade deal done with the US but freight rates, I don't know if that's it. On that canola in Melford again. I'll try to dig into that number eight here. Big, beautiful put again. I don't think that, you know, I, I don't think that the canola market is, is going to be your concern for this year. But the reason I brought it up is that you, you just can't, you can't screw up your canola marketing, okay? You. [00:34:14] I. Well, we can't on our farm. Let's. Maybe that's. Maybe I should just say that we can't screw up our canola marketing because we're not going to get the yields, you know, this year that we want. We just didn't have the growing season for that. [00:34:28] And so your canola marketing, for many, it could be a specialty crop. It could be, might not be canola for you. It could be a green lentil, it could be a Durham, it could be whatever. You have your crop, malt barley, like you have that crop that pays the bills on your farm. You got to spend some time and energy in that area to make sure you capture that margin. All right? Now, the big beautiful puts, I've got a bunch running. [00:34:53] And you know, they aren't, they aren't saving the farm quite yet, but they are. [00:35:01] You know, we get the statement here over the last couple days and that dollar figures climbing and that's just offsetting the unsold canola on the farm that is our safety. You know, I have referenced clients a lot this episode, but, you know, I had one client, they're like, what's, what's our average price on canola right now? Like, where are we at? And this is a client I work with on a daily basis, basically. But, you know, I, I said you, you don't have to worry about an average under 15 bucks a bushel. Like even moving forward today. [00:35:33] If it went to $10. Like you're at 15, it was like 1510 or something like that. Like that's where you. Nothing can hurt you. And you have upside. You have upside yet on that. So anyways, the puts are running. Yeah. I would just say there's still time to get some canola protection in. [00:35:53] Yeah. Again, I don't think the canola market is anyone's real scare, but if this head and shoulders pattern were to materialize and break down and some of the numbers that were thrown around there was, you know, canola going to 600 while my. [00:36:09] Yeah, my 7 37, 27, 37, 40 puts look pretty darn good in that, that scenario. So it wouldn't be a good situation if we lost our canola margin or any margin in your crop. That big crop for you. That, that just wouldn't be a good thing. You need that here for 20, 25. [00:36:29] All right, number nine. [00:36:31] You know, lots of talk around these big U.S. crops. They are big crops. All right. Like, we'll get more crop tour stuff, but it's not in the bin yet. But the crop in the US Is really darn good. I know people will post pictures of poor pollination or whatever it is. I'm not an agronomist, but they're good. Are they 187 of corn? I don't know. Probably not. But these folks spend a lot of time and energy and you look at the weather that they've received and it, it sets up for that big crop in the U.S. so I, we can nitpick it a little bit. Is the number too high in the estimates? Maybe it is, but not by much. [00:37:07] And could it get higher yet? It could, Right? Those crops look pretty darn good. And the influence that you're seeing right now is that feed barley in southern Alberta has dropped $25 a ton over the last couple weeks. Something like that. But of course you were alerted on the what the futures podcast. So you took action and you're in good shape. So all good. And my last one here for my, for my crop marketing rundown this week is oats. [00:37:39] And I just wanted to give like a, maybe a slow clap or shout out to farmers in the Peace region. Your oat price up in the Peace is the same price as central Alberta and that never happens. And so for some reason, you've got some good export programs going on. It's a good sign. [00:38:02] I saw oat prices rising across the prairies here a little bit. [00:38:08] I've been friendly, neutral friendly towards oats. [00:38:12] And as harvest, you know, is around the corner, it's interesting to see those prices pop up. [00:38:18] And of course, I heard about some quality concerns in the oak crop, so maybe that is the reason. So oat prices we're not too scared of right now and they are showing signs of strength. All right, folks, that's my crop marketing rundown. I hope you enjoyed that for, for this episode. Now, if you have a crop marketing question, send it in. The mailbag has been quiet this summer, but I'm always happy to try to tackle your questions or bring in a friend, somebody smarter than me. I know a lot of people in the industry and I can rely on them for some answers if I don't know how to respond. All right, so send them in. Ryanothefuturespodcast CA Now, I want to put a little shout out here to John Deere as they just announced their 2026 combine lineup. [00:39:12] And yeah, the future is here. Over at John Deere, we're talking about predictive ground speed control, automatic harvest settings, autonomous turning, and real time grain sensing. Basically a machine that thinks ahead, makes adjustments on the fly and takes some of the mental load off your plate. [00:39:35] I think I could even operate one of these. My brother will be happy to hear that. So I was thinking if you've got young operators or you're stretched thin at harvest, this kind of automation, this kind of technology might save you some time and cut loss, cut costs, especially when conditions are changing fast. [00:39:57] Word on the street is that pre orders are opening soon. [00:40:01] And so I'm curious on who the early adopters will be and how this tech plays out in the real prairie conditions. So the brand new John Deere lineup 2026 lineup out and available for pre order shortly. [00:40:18] All right, folks, let's go now to eating your veggies. Now, I've got three written down for you this week. I wanted to put some lighter cash flow Review. Everyone has a different way to tackle this and maybe a different approach, but, you know, be proactive at this time of year. Like, I beg you to be proactive. I've been begging you all summer to be proactive on cash flow review, but it's the worst phone call to get. Like, for me, as an. As someone that works with farms, that's the. Oh, I hate this one. I hate this one where it's like, hey, I need, you know, X amount of dollars, and I need it in two weeks. [00:41:04] Like, we are. Our advantage is out the window. We are at the mercy of. Of what we can accomplish. [00:41:13] And in the best case scenario, we. It's a hedgeable crop. We sell it, we reown a portion of it on paper or through a strategy or something like that, but it's not good. It's never good. [00:41:26] And, you know, when you got elevators a little bit jammed up, you got maybe a bit of a glut. Like, it. It's just. It's not good. So just review it now. I. [00:41:37] I got a message today saying, hey, Brian, I need to generate a little bit more money here by November 30th. Perfect. [00:41:43] It's August 6th. [00:41:46] I love talking about November 30th cash flow, and you should be as well. All right, number two, your bias, your market bias. [00:41:56] You've got targets out, maybe you have targets out, maybe they haven't hit. [00:42:00] If you still. If you need to make that sale, if that sale has to happen for a 0.1 cash flow, what are you waiting for? All right, what's your bias in these markets? I ask you to check your bias all the time. If it hasn't hit yet, if you threw a $9 wheat target out and it hasn't hit yet, what the heck? And you need to make the sale. What the heck are you waiting for? All right, are you bullish on $9 wheat? Because Ryan said it's gonna rain and harvest is gonna be a bit of a struggle, and quality spreads. Okay, well, maybe, but, yeah, like, what's your bias? Cause if you're trying to be bullish here over the next couple months, seasonals tell you, history tells you that's not the right time. All right, so just check your bias and your timeline on when you need to generate that cash. Check those targets out. All right, and then the last one, I just. I put canola protection in here. I know I said you guys aren't worried about it, but, man, as I said that, I just came back and wrote it down because we really can't screw that one up. [00:43:00] You really can't screw up your canola marketing. For if you're one of those farms, 40%, 30, 40, 50% of your acres are canola, maybe a farm in the northern part of the prairie provinces. You can't screw that one up. All right? Screw that one up and it's gonna be a lot of craft dinner this winter. All right? So spend some time on your canola marketing. [00:43:21] All right, folks, that's it for episode 88 of the Wet the Futures podcast. I did save my paused a moment for the end here. [00:43:30] I want to congratulate my sister Bridget and her husband Brady. [00:43:36] They welcomed their first Brinley, arrived earlier this week, baby girl, 5 pounds 12 ounces. [00:43:45] And came three weeks early. Everyone's doing fantastic. And yeah. So I want to give a congratulations to Bridget and Brady. It's been, you know, long time coming for them and I'm just over, over the moon, overjoyed and excited to have a niece and see them as first time parents. So congratulations to them. [00:44:10] All right, folks, that's it for this week's episode. Thanks for hanging out with me next week. I got a little vacation plan. I'm doing pretty well on the vacation this year. We did a lot of camping. [00:44:23] Going to do one more camping trip next week. So you probably get, with any luck, with any luck, I'm going to be in a brewery sipping, I don't know, some cold beer. Recording episode 89. [00:44:36] Fingers crossed. All right, we'll see what we pull together for next week, but thanks for hanging out for the what's the Futures podcast. My name is Ryan and I'm out of here.