Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Well, folks, we have show favorite Chuck Penner with Left Field Commodity research joining us here in episode 99. We talk Durham, we talk lentils, we talk 2026 acreage and unfortunately we also talk about 30% tariff coming down the pipe from India in regards to Canadian yellow peas starting November 1st. All that and more, including the Harvest Hustle winner, which we announced Wednesday night. So that much more here. Episode 99. Let's get into it. Welcome to the what the Futures podcast.
Hey folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast. Your quick guide to better farming decisions.
Well, folks, welcome into episode 99 of the what the Futures podcast. Of course, recorded each and every week in the UPL studio. And I was on the road, I've been on the road a little bit doing some post harvest meetings with some growers.
Actually, I'm heavily focused on 2026, but you know, the seed cleaners are out, the plans are being made and we talked about Rancona Trio from upl. We talked about how easy it is to use and actually these farmers were talking about some custom seed treatment. Seed treating, I should say that they got done. And it's just, you know, it's just a reminder. The 2026 planning is in full force. And don't forget about Ran Kona Trio from upl. It is the seed treatment now registered on Faba beans, but you can use it on cereals and pulses. Keep life easy and use some Rancona Trio.
Reach out to your local retailer for more details. Because I don't know how to say the big words, all the fancy words on the label. I can't say that. So talk to them. Alrighty, folks. Well, you know, we talked, we talked fertilizer last week. Of course we have Chuck Penner coming up this week, but we talked fertilizer last week on the show. And I really appreciate the, the emails, the communication coming back. And I, I apologize, I'm, I haven't responded to everybody yet.
Yeah, I need to set aside more time for that. But anyways, so I got an interesting email and then I was looking at some research and some analysis online as well when it comes to the fertilizer market.
And this isn't an episode about fertilizer by any means.
We're going to talk about 2026 in acreage numbers with Chuck Penner, but it's not about fertilizer, but it's interesting in some opinions of out there. So globally, you know, high urea price, terrible commodity prices and so less demand for urea in 2026. That's one of the narratives out there from some of these analysts which, which just on very simple terms, it just makes sense, right? It's, it's an expensive product. The margins aren't there. I'm going to use less of it. Like, that is a pretty, that's a pretty, you know, I think, safe and easy way to think about it. But, but also the other thing that's creeping into the marketplace here is that the prices, even they may not drop much further from where they're at now, but they may, may not climb as much as people think going into spring. Doesn't that sound completely dangerous? Doesn't it sound scary and dangerous to sit there and like, not, you know, commit to fertilizer, to pay the same amount in the spring and, and save some of that interest? I can't do it. Like, I can't do it on the farm. I'm too, I'm too proactive in everything else that I couldn't sit here and not have it planned. But it's interesting, it's an interesting thought that prices, you know, may not climb as much as people think. Now don't get me wrong, Western Canada, we tell a story, we'll get the violin out. You know, that sad story about how it's hard to move product, all this product in a short time frame and, you know, therefore prices need to climb between January and April. Like I. Okay, sure, I get it. The violins will be out and I'm sure prices will climb to some degree. But it's very, very interesting. It's very interesting. Now this is my last thing on fertilizer. And then we'll get into it here with, with Chuck Penner.
But on. So I again, been on the road a little bit, meeting with some farms, figuring out some plans and, and I also posted this question into the, the Lunchbox crew because what happened on Friday? So chatting with a farm, going over some fertilizer quotes. So we've been talking for the last couple weeks, but on Friday, Friday was the day. Just think about this as a farm. So traditional, this farm, two suppliers, local suppliers, you know, if you look at history, have done most of their purchasing from one of those two buyers.
Right? You know, the story you guys are, you're nodding your head like, yeah, I kind of buy from my guy. I buy from my, my person over there, that company. Right? So we're sitting there and we get the quotes. And out of the two, the one quote is just crazy high and not, not willing to budge. The next quote is quite a bit lower, but not our Favorite supplier, right? So then we started hearing some prices come in from other companies. We actually had a third offer on the table as well from, from a company, an aggressive type company that wants to do the business. But we hadn't bought farm, hadn't bought from them before. So we got three numbers, all right? And then we get the notification message and alert a text message from another retail. Out of, completely out of the blue, completely out of nowhere, you get the message, say, hey, I got a fert price. You know, here's some numbers. And it blows the other ones all out of the water. And then we get another one and that one comes in lower.
And then we get. Now we have six quotes and that one comes in lower. So between actually the high quote and the low quote on Urea that day on that farm, $90 a ton difference and the, those three lower quote, those three quotes that came in lower. There's some excitement, some buzz around those ones because those organizations were excited to go try to get some new business, go take, you know, get a new customer. That's what happens in these environments, right?
Loyalties can shift in this type of pricing environment.
But like it was exciting. And then the one, the one company, the. Oh man, I wish I could say the name. I'm just going to get in too much trouble though, if I do. But the one company comes in and they put a deadline like you are the original three. The one says, you have to commit to this by 5 o'.
[00:06:51] Speaker B: Clock.
[00:06:51] Speaker A: Well, what do we do? We say, hey, you know, your 5 o' clock deadline's great, but we're going to pass because now we have a lower quote and then we have another lower quote and then we have a third lower quote. And it was weird. It wasn't, it wasn't like a very proactive, like we're going to go in and try to grab these prices and see what we can do in this market. It was more just, hey, I heard you're looking for a quote. I was talking to this farmer. Here's my numbers. I hear they're good. Away we go. Like not, not proactive on our side at all. So the deadline goes out the window. But the deadline company, you know what they say? And I put this with the lunchbox career. I said, when somebody, oh man, how do I say it? When somebody matches a quote, you give them the business. So like let's say for example, your, your quote is, you know, the company's quoting at 11 just for a number. The next company comes in at 10 and the $11 company says, oh, I'll match it. Like, do you award your business to that farm? And so I threw that out to the lunchbox crew. Out of curiosity, is it A hundred percent? 100% says the next quote needs to beat the current leading quote. So matching, you know that there's no such thing as matching. So I, you know, I thought that was interesting. But the company decided to match. We sent them three numbers. They matched all three. And I'm like, wait a second here. Like, this isn't how this is done. You got to come in with your low. You got to come in with your best offer, not just this matching business.
So I was curious. I said, wild week of fertilizer in negotiations with prices dropping each day. When it comes to quotes, I'm curious on tactics.
One company in particular needs to make T shirts that say, I'll match it. And I said, that's a little bit greasy to me. So does the next quote need to beat the current leading quote, or do you allow some of these? I said, wise guys, I'm in a. We got Moose Jack coming up. I'm in an Al Capone theme. So I said, wise guys, do you allow them to match it and reward them with your business? And nobody voted for that one. So.
All right, so now I did. Some farms have said, well, Ryan, we're not seeing, we're not seeing that same type of price action on fertilizer in our area.
And, you know, that's under understandable. I, I like, I want to put this into perspective. Like, if you're getting quotes, the highest urea quote in my area of Alberta is 8 95. That is the highest quote. That is the quote that people don't even, they don't even really look at anymore. They're okay in. My lowest quote delivered to farm in this area is 779 is the lowest that I've seen as of recording. Can it come in lower yet? We'll see. But, but that's where we are. Like that. That is a. That is a range, folks. That is a, a range. Now, within there, you've got a couple others that. That's 116 bucks a ton for urea. All right. With all very, very similar terms. Very, very similar terms. But within there, the majority of your quotes, like if I have eight quotes here, the majority of those quotes are going to be right in that $800 level. Right. And then there was a, like a 790 and a 785. Yeah. You know, you're gonna have A few of those. One low and a high and. But everything's right around there. Okay. There's an 810 in the mix. There's an 8, I think an 825 in there as well. Right. So I'm not. There are extremes. There's the high and the low, but there's a bunch of stuff going on. So to, for me, the excitement is also like, I'm getting excited about 20 bucks a ton. Right. You may not be excited about 20 bucks a ton, but I'm sitting there watching this market develop. And I said it, I, I said it last week. I'm going to end it here. But to me, there's a lot of chaos going on. It's the title of last week's episode. There's chaos out there. You guys are holding some of the leverage right now for the time being. It still doesn't feel good because it's still expensive stuff. You know, I was looking at my fertilizer budgets this morning. Yeah, it's still going to be expensive. So it's not that fun, but it is coming down.
So my final take on this for, for this week is that, you know, generally speaking from an urgency perspective, the majority has said no urgency. You don't. There's no urgency for you to take this price from me today. You don't. There's no deadline. You don't have to take this by five o'. Clock. Here's, here's the number, which is a lot different than you guys remember. Remember at egg in motion, like, all you guys wanted to do is talk fertilizer at egg in motion.
And it was, here's 400 tons. You have until 5 o'. Clock. If you don't take it, I'm phoning your neighbor and selling it to them. I remember those conversations as well. Those were very fun. That's an interesting tactic. Im.
You should, you should flip the tables now and say, you know what? Here's my price demands. If you don't give it to me, I'm going to go buy it from your competing neighbor by 5 o' clock or something like that. Silly, isn't it? All right, folks, I want to talk crop marketing here. After the, the Chuck Pinner interview, we'll have positive moments. Harvest Hustle winner. All that good stuff here coming up for you a little bit later on. There is a lot of crop marketing, in my opinion, that needs to happen over the next couple of weeks here.
And we are seeing a little pop in the canola market. We are seeing a little bit of strength in the wheat market. Finally, we are seeing some higher prices, and I believe that you will want to be a bit more aware and aggressive against cash flow needs over the next couple of weeks here. So we'll talk about that. But let's get into it with Chuck Penner from left Field commodity research.
Alrighty, folks, I have Chuck Penner with Left field commodity research joining me here on episode 99. Chuck, can you believe it?
[00:12:37] Speaker B: Wow, you're on the Gretzky episode.
[00:12:39] Speaker A: You're on the Wayne Gretzky episode. Hey, there you go. Well, thanks again for joining us, Chuck. You're definitely a fan favorite of the listeners out there and so much so I had an email the other day from a listener saying you got to get Chuck on pretty quick here because you're not talking about lentils and Durham enough. So here we go, Chuck. Here we go. We'll talk about that.
[00:13:00] Speaker B: Like what I have to say, but okay.
[00:13:02] Speaker A: Yeah. Hey, well, we need an update. Apparently we need an update. So.
All right, Chuck, thanks. Thanks again for coming on.
So before I hit the record button, you were sharing a little bit of news with me that just came down the pipeline. We're recording this on Wednesday, October 29th, folks. So, of course, you won't hear this until Halloween. But, Chuck, what did you. What did you hear across the wire? What came across the wires?
[00:13:28] Speaker B: Well, you know, it's one of those cases where no news is good news. And so when you get news, it's kind of. Ugh.
But, yeah, I was all excited on, on the weekend, I saw this. These. I was getting these WhatsApp messages from these people in India. They were sending me these government notices and they were saying that tariffs on peas and on lentils and chickpeas and whatever were going to stay at their current levels until. Until whenever. For yellow peas. That was end of March.
[00:13:55] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:13:56] Speaker B: So that was zero tariffs on yellow peas in March of that. Great. There's that uncertainty is now that cloud is no longer hanging over the market. And then about an hour ago, I saw that, oh, they've decided to put 30% tariffs on yellow peas starting November 1st. You know, I'm trying to check a few bids, but had the phone ringing a little bit and telling me that some bids have dropped 50 or 60 cents a bushel overnight or during the day today, I guess.
[00:14:22] Speaker A: Sure.
[00:14:23] Speaker B: In response to that. And so, yeah, as if that market didn't need another kick in the teeth, it got one. And so, you know, we really better hope that Mr. Carney plays nice with Mr. Z and get some sort of resolution there because otherwise I don't know where these P's are going to go.
[00:14:41] Speaker A: So, you know, we have had, you know, this fall, we have had decent, you know, decent movement and decent opportunities. Do you think that was going to India, you know, as a, in the, as a destination or, or did. Were we trying, were we getting something done into China at these values?
[00:14:59] Speaker B: Well, I don't know. I don't think to China because like China's September imports, they imported about 160 or 180,000 tons, and almost all of that came from Russia. Okay. I think Russia is able to supply that market. And so that was September. No, I think a lot of this was going to India. And it may be one of the reasons why they decided to impose tariffs now is because. So this is any bills of lading November 1, after November 1 or November 1 and later. So it may be that because there are large volumes of peas already heading to India and, you know, and that helped us get to 750 and, you know, bids and stuff like that, that they are deciding that, no, it's time to shut the door now. And the other negative part of that is if it wasn't. That wasn't negative enough is that Australia has 2 million tons of desi chickpeas sitting or about, in being harvested or about to be harvested, and, and that's going to hit that market or be available. They might get hit with tariffs too, at some point. I don't know.
[00:16:03] Speaker A: Sure.
[00:16:04] Speaker B: And then, of course, then they. The automatic next question is, are they going to do something to. Something more to red lentils? Right now it's 10% and are they going to do something more? So, yeah. Yeah. So, you know, I was kind of optimistic earlier this week, and now it's just kind of, oh, man, you know, I'm just going to pack up and go home. I mean, for me, it's just like, I don't like to see that by any means, but it's not really hitting my pocketbook for the farmers.
[00:16:30] Speaker A: Sure.
[00:16:30] Speaker B: They're the ones who get smacked with it.
[00:16:33] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:16:33] Speaker B: And it's. Yeah, we were kind of nervous about that happening earlier. And then they said on the weekend, okay, zero tariffs, good, we're good to go.
[00:16:42] Speaker A: But they did, and they did kick that can down the road a few times. Right. I remember chatting on the podcast, you know, prior months and saying, oh, there's a deadline coming up and we'll see. But, you know, maybe tariffs will be back on or, you know, it's up for renewal here. And so I think they surprised us a few times by kicking it down the road further.
But here we are now, like from your, from the, you know, you said on the weekend some different messaging now today, Wednesday, this messaging. Is there a chance it's that this could be reversed in the next couple days by the time we send out the podcast?
[00:17:19] Speaker B: Well, let's hope so. Yeah. Yeah, let's hope so. Because when you read these kind of things, you kind of. Because it comes out on official government letterhead, you think, okay, yeah. And so, yeah, I'm asking my contacts out there, like, what's going on? I want to really confirm this, but, you know, the fact that bids have dropped suggests though it's something's there, the real deal. Yeah.
[00:17:42] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:17:42] Speaker B: All right.
[00:17:43] Speaker A: All right.
Okay. So, you know, we did have the yellow pea market surprised me this fall in a way. Like, sure, we had that harvest low come in and it was a tough low to, to see. But then we, we had that little rebound across the prairies. And you know, I was fortunate I got a chance to do another sale in that little rebound, you know, post harvest rebound or whatever you want to call it. So, yeah, it's tough news for sure. It's going to be a tough winter of marketing yellow peas of this is status quo between India and China until the end of March here. But I feel like I did have some chances at least. So. Yeah, yeah.
[00:18:21] Speaker B: But everybody has high hopes, right?
You know, that's part of being a farmer and you know, and an analyst, frankly, is you've got high hopes and sometimes you're too, too optimistic instead of trying to sugarcoat things or you, you don't want to be brutally realistic and, and so you try and anyway, Yep.
[00:18:41] Speaker A: Well, this one surprised me for sure today. So anyways, I wanted to, I did want to talk about general like, you know, the commodity trend out there. If you were feeling like, you know, with the 2025 harvest, you know, for the most part behind us, I know a few folks listening this week will put their hand up and say, hey, Ryan, I'm not quite done yet, but you know, generally behind us, very good crop across the prairies from all accounts here. Are you feeling optimism in just a general basket of commodities moving into the winter months?
[00:19:13] Speaker B: I think so. And probably more for the cereal grains.
We're seeing wheat exports like running full tilt. Last year was record. This year's even better.
Barley exports are like a record by a wide margin.
So that would be China for the barley side of the market. Those two are kind of leading the way in my mind. We're hearing about better basis on wheat or getting more phone calls from buyers saying, hey, do you got some, including some CPS or, you know, hardware spring and CPS 80, you got some and you know, so some specials that way. So that's positive. And you know, and in Alberta getting feed barley back up above five bucks and you know, or up to five bucks or maybe a bit better, like those kind of things. And it's still early in the year. Yep, Those to me would be the more bright spots. And then in the Canola market, you know, it's chugging higher. I guess it's up a couple of bucks again today.
On Wednesday, it's nudging its way higher as well too. And again, it's early in the year.
And again everybody's holding out this hope that there's some sort of resolution with China. If that doesn't happen, it'll just, you know, we'll just keep chugging along. But I think there's still like there's, there is this. When you get to. Around these harvest lows, that's when the pessimism gets the worst, in my experience anyway, that's when everybody's the most negative. And, and yet in most years, you know, when we've worked out some of these numbers and things like that, in like eight or nine out of 10 years, prices do move higher off of those harvest lows. Like you get some of these scare tactics. I remember seeing some earlier this fall on wheat saying, geez, it's, you know, like, you sure you don't want to set some targets? Because it's just bearish and it's just going to get worse. And if you want to get some movement before, you know, still in this, in, before January, you better book it now. And you know, and then if a few weeks later you're again, they're, they're, they're a little more motivated to buy your wheat than they were before. So there is all this psychology that goes on in the market, which.
Not a psychologist, but, you know, I'm an observer of human nature. And yeah, for a lot of these crops we've. Because they're big. Like you were saying, we've, you know, we've been expecting, you know, okay, yeah, you'll get a move off of the harvest, off of the bottom off the harvest low, but it's going to be pretty modest. Yeah. And so that's kind of been our approach or our, our thoughts toward, toward the. Most of the Markets. The other bit of bright news, and it might affect a number of, cut across a number of markets.
Bright news for, for us are these concerns about China and getting the corn harvested there, getting even some of the spring wheat harvested or the quality of their spring wheat crop, getting their winter wheat planted for next year. And so, you know, there's a few of those little tidbits that are, you know, that, that are a little more optimistic and you know, what's your market stance? Can you find, can you find something to support it? Sure you can.
[00:22:10] Speaker A: So, yeah, yeah.
Well, I, you know, just going back to some of the cereal grains there. I like the barley. The demand for barley was a nice little, nice little, not maybe, not maybe surprise, but it just allowed farms to move, move some, some decent barley yields off, off the combine or quickly after and get some cash flow going. Like that was a nice benefit. And we're starting to work back in my area to those, not quite there, but getting close to those levels again. And then of course, the fascinating strategy of buying wheat across the prairies, not, not in every area, but in most areas where, you know, here is my price to fill these cars at, you know, seven, whatever it's going to be. And then, right, you know, the slightly faded font right behind is the six something posted bid. Right. And so this is the strategy. This has been the strategy for over a year now. The question I have to ask the merchandising group out there is, do you not like, are you okay just being stressed out to fill your trains every couple weeks, or do you not want to get a book of business done and just set a price and get after it? But that's, that's how it is out there now. And so we're all trained to just sit here and wait and then they'll phone like the other day, we need this train sitting here. We need wheat. What's it going to take? And the farmer's like, well, you know, no one's offered me 775 in a while. How's that sound? Yep. Is your. Can you load your truck right now? Let's get going. 775, right? And away he went.
He's like, what do I do now? I'm like, wait for the next train, I guess and let them know to call you again.
[00:23:51] Speaker B: Like, well, it's, it's part of it is too, is, you know, and it's been a long time since I've worked in a, in a grain company and that sort of thing. But that communication that happens between the Merchant. And then the local guys can be. Some companies is better, some companies, it's worse. Right. In terms of telling them what their needs are, things like that. So I recall it, you know, in. At times that wasn't. That communication wasn't great.
And it also may be too, that. That the merchants sitting in. In their offices are just getting these sales, like the, you know, these sales from China or to China or whatever are just happening so quickly that, you know, they don't know what their book needs to be, what their coverage needs to be well in advance. So I don't try to give them the benefit of the doubt, but sure. No, absolutely. That habit of buying that way sure gets ingrained in people. I mean, their job is always to buy it as cheap as possible.
That's their job.
[00:24:46] Speaker A: And there is bushels out there, right? So they're sitting there thinking at some point these bushels will come. And so, you know, margins. Are margins tight or not right now, I. With the demand out there for some of these crops, I would think margins are decent. But I could be wrong on that.
[00:25:00] Speaker B: I mean, there's always this debate too, about, you know, or you hear this, whatever, farmers are just price takers.
And yeah, to some degree that's true, but they have an influence. They can really have an influence.
For canary seed, if it wasn't for farmers locking their bins, those prices would be 10 cents a pound, not 20.
[00:25:18] Speaker A: Yeah, right. Yeah.
[00:25:19] Speaker B: So they do have an influence.
[00:25:20] Speaker A: Yep, for sure. Yeah.
All right, let's turn our attention here. I want to talk about the Durham market. I want to talk about lentils. You've done some great presentations on seasonals, you know, where at times of year, where do the markets find themselves? You know, if I want to isolate it down to those two, and maybe I can't even do lentils. Maybe it has to be green lentils and red lentils separate. But what are you seeing there from those markets? From a seasonal perspective, is there any recovery around the corner here? Where are we at?
[00:25:53] Speaker B: Yeah, there is a boy. I hesitate to say for Durham, I think there is a recovery, but it's gonna be really quiet, typically. And prices don't follow the seasonals every year. I fully acknowledge that.
And in a year where prices or supplies are heavier, then that seasonal move is less noticeable. But the seasonal high for Durham tends to be in November, and then it goes lower from there. I've watched this market often enough, even in years where supplies have been fairly snug. You know, forget 21, 22. But other years where supplies have been snug and you keep waiting for Durham prices to really pick up, especially in spring when Thunder Bay opens up and you know, and all of that and it doesn't do it very often. Like, it's not very often where you see a spring rally in Durham. Now you could have real problems with, you know, with winter, you know, with European winter Durham crop or things like that.
But it's really tough to get a rally in spring. And so again in this year where you have pretty heavy supplies and the quality is, you know, there's all kinds of ranges of quality and all that, but it's gonna be. It's gonna be tough to get much of a rally out of the Durham market this year.
And you know, so. So if there are some requests, if you get some calls, you know, in November again to try and get stuff into Thunder Bay before the freeze up, that sort of thing. I mean, it doesn't apply to the western Durham crop, but. But you know, some of the eastern stuff would certainly go that way.
[00:27:34] Speaker A: Sure.
[00:27:35] Speaker B: You know, probably do reward that. Those. Those phone calls with some sales anyway, would be my suggestion.
[00:27:43] Speaker A: And we did see was it Algeria that stepped up with a big Durham purchase or Tunisia.
Okay.
[00:27:51] Speaker B: And yeah, that tender was. I'm trying to remember now, but the tender was at the same level as it was a year ago, like in fall of 2024.
[00:27:59] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:28:00] Speaker B: Which is. But. But bids to the farmer at that point were closer to 8 bucks versus, you know, 750 or whatever.
You know that. So. But that's also a reflection that last year supplies were tighter, this year more plentiful. So again, buyers, if they don't have to pay more, they won't.
So. So that's. But it's. Yeah, it was a little bit of. A little bit of a positive thing. And that also tends to be the low point in the season for. For Durham tenders is. Is in the fall, which makes sense.
[00:28:33] Speaker A: Okay, sure. All right. What about lentils?
Green lentils may be a little scarier of an outlook on green lentils price wise.
[00:28:42] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah. That one I think is one that can go flat, can stay flat for a long time, frankly. And you know, when we had the harvest and then prices for large greens, for example, dropped to, you know, 23, 24, that kind of price. And then it came back by two or three cents and everybody's going woohoo. You know, it's really time. And then they just kind of, you know, they got to there and then.
And even this last week slipped a Little bit more again. But yeah, those, those green lentil supplies and maybe even more so small greens, like just, there's just so many of them out there this year. I think that market is just going to stay flat again. You know, buyers will, you know, when they got a, when they have a shipment, they may, you know, phone their friends or phone their closest customers and say, yeah, I got an extra cent or cent and a half and things like that and buy it that way.
But in terms of like an overall market rallying, no, I think that's, that's not the case. There is a, there is a slight chance of some improvement. They've had some really wet weather in India just as they're harvesting their pigeon pea crop. So prices for pigeon peas have gone up a little bit there. It's not a, not a crazy rally or anything like that. So that could allow India to start importing a little bit more green lentils, but they can also import pigeon peas from East Africa and that sort of thing. So they do have options. So there is not going to say there's absolutely no chance, but it's a pretty small chance.
[00:30:16] Speaker A: Sure.
[00:30:17] Speaker B: Yeah. And on red lentils, the seasonal highs and red lentils tend to be April, May.
[00:30:23] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:30:23] Speaker B: For that reason alone, I would probably not be as panicked or as worried about making red lentil sales.
Now, that said, we just saw India put a tariff on yellow peas. They could do the same thing to red lentils. That's always a, you know, a cloud hanging over the market. And so that's, that's certainly a possibility. But places like Turkey, uae, Egypt, Bangladesh, like, there are other, other buyers of red lentils. And the other thing is too, is that, you know, for a number of crops like lentils right now, you know, even for canary seed, some of these low prices can add a few more tons anyway of demand just because these countries can afford to buy more now. And so lower prices, let's be a little more aggressive buying. So that can help clear things a little more earlier or a little earlier than you would have otherwise. So the red lentils, I think there's a little more life possible as long as India doesn't drop a tariff on that.
[00:31:27] Speaker A: Sure. And just going back to Australia for a second, things lining up very, very well for a really good crop down in Australia, for the most part.
[00:31:35] Speaker B: Yeah. Although if there is an exception to the Australian, like, overall crop outlook, it kind of is. That lentil growing area in South Australia and Victoria, like, there are parts of that lentil belt that have, have stayed Dry or are getting rains now when you really don't need them or want them.
[00:31:55] Speaker A: Sure.
[00:31:57] Speaker B: So much. So.
Yeah, it's the lentil. Some of their crops are their canola, their barley, their wheat. Yeah, those are all good. But kind of that lentil belt there is, is, is. Is pretty spotty, I would say. Or just.
[00:32:14] Speaker A: Yeah, okay.
[00:32:15] Speaker B: It's kind of like, you know, you had good, really good lentil crops in a whole bunch of western Canada, but that southwest was still.
Southwest Saskatchewan was still a challenge. Right. So, you know, it's not fantastic everywhere.
[00:32:28] Speaker A: Yep. Okay. All right, fair enough. Well, let's, let's turn our attention now to your.
To your. You did a 20, 26 seeded acres.
Do we call it a guess? I guess early on. I think you said many disclaimers involved on this early one. This is. You normally. You don't do in October, do you?
[00:32:50] Speaker B: No, but we were starting to get. People were asking us like, okay, we want to plan our planting for next year and so on. And then of course, the accountants want to have a number that they can throw into the budgets and those kind of things. So, yeah, we've started to do an early one, but it's not based on, like, the ones we do later in the year are based on some gross margin comparisons and those kind of things. This was based on kind of what are we hearing? What are we feeling? You know, one of the, one of the things that's probably a bigger factor this year is how much, like, which crops will be. Will farmers be sitting on at the end of the year? Like, sure, you know, yeah, they're still going to be sitting on a whole bunch of green lentils or on, on peas and, you know, that sort of thing.
[00:33:36] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:33:37] Speaker B: So I think that's going to come into play in some of the planting decisions, too. So, yeah, they were even with yields and all of that kind of stuff. I use the word guesstimate a lot.
[00:33:46] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:33:46] Speaker B: Because, like, just to be honest, like, nobody knows. Exactly. And, and, you know, I don't want to say there's some super duper mind behind all of this or some econometric model or, you know, all of those kind of things.
[00:33:59] Speaker A: They're a very expensive crystal ball in the back, on the back shelf of the Office Magic 8 Ball. What are we going to do with Canola Acres next year?
Ask me later.
[00:34:10] Speaker B: Here's the exercise, Ryan, because we're doing a couple of seminars this winter, one in Manitoba and one in Saskatoon, and it's about. We call it Planning Without Prediction. So, like Stop trying to predict what the market is going to do. So if I were to ask you, okay, what factors influence canola acreage or canola prices? What factors influence canola prices? You would say things like fertilizer cost. Fertilizer costs.
[00:34:37] Speaker A: Crop rotation.
[00:34:38] Speaker B: Crop rotation. So in terms of. In terms of prices, what. What influences canola prices? Well, the Canadian crop.
Size of the Canadian crop. What's. What makes up the Canadian crop? Well, there's acres and there's yields. Well, what determines yields? Well, there's rainfall and there's temperatures too high or too low.
You know, all of those kind of things. And then there's a Ukrainian crop and then there's a European crop, and then there's government policy. And. And like, there's a whole multitude of factors.
[00:35:06] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:35:07] Speaker B: And then how much weight do you put on each one of those? Like, how much weight do you put on Canadian acreage and how much. What. What effect is that going to have on prices?
And what effect is the US Soybean crop going to have on Canadian canola prices? It will have an effect, but is it. Yeah, big effect.
[00:35:25] Speaker A: Little, small effect.
[00:35:26] Speaker B: There's. There's a. There's a whole multitude of factors that will determine whether next fall we have $15 canola. And so I'm not big on, as, you know, not big on. On predicting because, like, there's. There's 50 things that can affect the Canadian. The canola price next fall.
And you have to predict every one of those within some degree and how much each of those things has. So there's my rant.
So anyway, so that's why we're big on things like price history and how have prices, you know, how things. I'm trying to run some calculations now in terms of figuring out was it better to forward price or to price within the crop year.
Has anybody done that before?
Everybody has their gut feelings and there's reasons for doing it this way and that way. But has anybody sat down with years worth of prices and figured out is it better to do it this way or better to do it this way? Or is it just a mixed bag and some years better, some years worse? And I think that's. We'll see. But I like to look at what's happened in the past as your guide for what might happen in the future.
[00:36:39] Speaker A: Yeah, sure, sure. It's, you know, I do a crop rankings calculator as well that I adjust.
Apparently I'll have to adjust my LOP number down maybe as of this afternoon, but, you know, farms again with with planning. Yeah, like it, you know, the actual dollar, like per bushel on each commodity.
Like with fine, it's okay to put a number in there and all and all that stuff, but at the end of the day it's looking at that, you know, chance of profitability or that chance of a positive margin or what is that? Negative margin. What could it be?
And seeing like what, you know, is there something you can eliminate or change?
But I've said it on the show before and I'll say it again in the future, like on our farm, you know, 10,000 acre farm, gonna put in 4,000 acres of wheat or 3,000 or 3,500. Right. We might change it a little bit here or there, but even when it projects a loss, there's still. It's a wonderful day on the farm when the sun's shining, the combines are rolling in a wheat field and you're going back and forth, the bushels are coming in. It's a great day. Are you making money? No, but it's a great day. So anyways.
[00:37:57] Speaker B: Yeah, anyway, so. So, yeah, so these that long way around of whatever is to say that, yeah, they're guesstimates, they're not. They're not some rigorous whatever. You have a bit of a gut instinct over the years. You develop that and a bit of a gut. And just frankly, you've got it laid.
[00:38:15] Speaker A: Out kind of nicely. Like when it comes to like the wheat, you know, the wheat acres, the coarse grains, change in coarse grains, change in oil seeds, change in special crops. Is there anything that, that stands out early on in that report? Because I'll.
Your special crops are down 8% in give or take. Right, but 8%. And canola's up.
Pardon me. Oil seeds are up 2 or 3%. But is there anything that's kind of standing out early on? I'll tell you what stands out for me, but I'll let you go first.
[00:38:47] Speaker B: Well, I think for me, and maybe this latest news from India will just accentuate that, but the drop in pulse acres, I just think again, there's going to be people sitting on a lot of peas and lentils at the end of 25, 26. And if they're looking at their bins and seeing all of this stuff in there, do we want to add to those piles and so on. I certainly would agree with you though about the rotations. And you know, it doesn't change radically from year to year, but it's that tweaking. But, you know, the pulse is down a certain amount, John. And I debated, you know, okay, well, is Canola. What's canola going to do? Or things like that? And we're also hearing from people like yourselves and others out in the country and what they're thinking and, you know, and I think, you know, we're going to see, like, some of the crops that have good movement, like barley and wheat, you know, will just. That movement alone will help.
Strong movement will help encourage a few more acres, too.
[00:39:53] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:39:53] Speaker B: So the cereals up pulses down.
Not more canary seed.
[00:39:59] Speaker A: That was the biggest decline.
[00:40:01] Speaker B: More canary seed.
[00:40:02] Speaker A: Yeah. Largest decline in acres was canary seed, followed by fall rye.
[00:40:07] Speaker B: Yeah, well, in rye we're hearing that too. Is, you know, that.
But. But who. Yeah, we're hearing that in terms of seed sales and, and things like that.
[00:40:16] Speaker A: So, yeah, yeah, that that window has passed. And, you know, if I was chatting with four fall rye growers last year, is there one left out of those four? I don't think so this year, but again, we're not talking about thousands and thousands of acres, so.
[00:40:32] Speaker B: No.
[00:40:33] Speaker A: Yeah, so.
[00:40:33] Speaker B: So, yeah, it's, you know, I don't know. What did you see in there that was stood out?
[00:40:38] Speaker A: My, my one thought that keeps rattling around in, in my tiny little brain here is like, is fertilizer. What impact does fertilizer, the cost of fertilizer have on the pulse acreage?
And you know, will a farm sit there and say, Man, I'm $800 urea. I'm not paying that for this or, or whatever it goes up to.
I'm not paying that. You know, I'm. I'm going to put in more pulses. Like, my fear is that people, farms out there still go and put in as much or the same Pulse acres as this last year, which, which to me is messy. And of course I get the odd, well, I'm going to do what nobody else is doing and I'm going to put in a bunch of yellow peas. And I'm like, oh, please, please. No.
[00:41:25] Speaker B: Well, there is that too.
[00:41:26] Speaker A: Yeah. But yeah, you know, it's interesting because.
[00:41:29] Speaker B: A few years ago, I'm trying to remember how many years ago was three, four years ago.
My memory is a little bit faulty is we had sky high fertilizer prices, nitrogen prices then, too.
[00:41:40] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:41:40] Speaker B: And I expected it to have a large influence on, On Pulse Acres, and I think they actually went down that year.
[00:41:46] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:41:47] Speaker B: So.
So I think it does affect some people and, and so on, but again, within that rotation that they're trying to maintain and so on. I don't know. I was Fully convinced we'd see a whole bunch more pulse acres that year, and it didn't happen.
So I'm a little. Little cautious about that.
[00:42:08] Speaker A: Yeah. Like, the more I think about it, the less convinced I am that the high fertilizer cost will change the acre decisions around a whole bunch. I think nobody will like it, and it won't be great. But even if you think about it, I believe the price of urea this spring was $1100 a.
And right now it's seven something.
You know, like, it's not 1100 right now. If you're planning like, you can buy it for less than what some people paid this last spring. So, you know, I don't know. The more I think about, the less convinced I am that high fertilizer is going to have a big impact. But I am scared of it. Halloween is here. I'm scared. That's my fear for this, for this Halloween. I think the oat acreage, like, you have to look at what acres did this last year. So you might say, yeah, we expect barley to be up 6%, but the acres were down this last year and down quite a bit from the past couple of years. So even that recovery in barley acres is not. Not a scary number by any means. It's just a kind of a healthy recovery. I'm a little bit interested to see what the new crop oat prices do to see if there's a little bit more of an uptick in oat acreage. But those oat millers, they sit back. They like to sit back as long as they can. So.
[00:43:23] Speaker B: Yeah. And then they complain that they can't buy it or that farmers are planting oats. Yeah, like, come on, you guys.
[00:43:30] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, they can go and get. Get what they need.
No, I like your flax. I like the flax being up 20%. You know, that's a big number that stands out.
[00:43:40] Speaker B: But, yeah, that one, that one. I mean, flax prices are all. Even in the last. Since we did that report have come off a little bit off a bit. Yeah. It might not be quite as enthusiastic. I mean, I have a soft spot in my heart for flax, but.
And I've overestimated barley acres for I don't know how many years in a row now. So. Yeah, that's why. Probably a little more cautious this year.
[00:44:00] Speaker A: Yeah. You know, I think when it all kind of boils down here, like, I look at the biggest, I don't follow canary seed at all, but obviously there's a need for that acreage. To take that decline and then just right below that, mustard seed, which is another market. I don't follow a whole bunch. And that's your largest increase in percentage wise? Percentage wise, yeah.
I'm not sure what stands out in the mustard market, except my buddy Nathan grew some for the first time ever and I think he was quite happy with it.
[00:44:32] Speaker B: Well, you know, the prices are not where they've been either before or after the 21 drought.
You know, they've been a lot lower and they've been a lot higher, But I think they're reasonable prices. And you know, part of it too is that farmers yield outcomes in this last year might color that a little bit too.
You know, color their view and with their penciling out their budgets and things like that.
You know, I think it's important because, you know, some of those guys have had low, low mustard yields or lentil yields for 3, 4 years in a row. And then all of a sudden they got a nice, much nicer crop. And so they might be more optimistic and put that in the, in the rotate, Keep it in the rotation.
[00:45:21] Speaker A: Yeah, I've, I've been going back to crop insurance index levels, like for planning, like just a little tweak on those. But I'm like, all right guys, like, great year for some of these crops, but let's not, let's not budget the 65 bushel canola. Like let's. Maybe your crop insurance index says 48. Let's go and do that one for now.
[00:45:41] Speaker B: So until proven otherwise, five year averages or whatever. Some kind of average.
[00:45:45] Speaker A: Yeah, some kind of average. Yeah.
[00:45:47] Speaker B: You know, one, one that we use in Our S&DS is we call it an Olympic average. We look at the last five years and you drop the high and you drop the low. And so it's basically the three middle years of the last five years. I think that's not a bad approach to use either.
[00:46:00] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. The other thing that stood out in the report was the, you know, some of the budgeted prices that again, that you're, you're using not far from some of the numbers I had. But I know that, you know, some growers that I, that we both know, you know, read this and, and we're feeling like a little better about 20, 26. So they, you know, it's just a little better. Not, not like, not scared, not worse, just, just a little bit better. And I thought that was interesting.
[00:46:34] Speaker B: Well, you know, again, you know, they're probably the perspective that they're looking at it from when this came out is kind of still at those harvest lows, so anything that's right is looking up. Right?
[00:46:43] Speaker A: That's true.
[00:46:44] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:46:45] Speaker A: Yeah.
All right.
[00:46:47] Speaker B: Hopefully I'm all wrong. And. And there's a drought in the rest of the world and Canada.
Canadian farmers make out like bandits.
[00:46:56] Speaker A: Yeah. Like, you know, things happen. These markets do. They do move. And.
And sometimes it's, you know, a dry little forecast for a few weeks and you get a spike that you can take advantage of. Sometimes it's something bigger. But, you know, I think we'd all just feel a little bit better if we could get some of this trade, some of these trade issues behind us. Like, you know, is the India tariff, is that going to go away on. On yellow peas anytime soon? Well, it's just being implemented, so, you know, let's see.
[00:47:28] Speaker B: Not.
[00:47:29] Speaker A: But if, you know, if we could get some. Some type of, you know, we got a lot of trade negotiations to go down with the US if we could get some clarity around that, some positivity there, you know, something with China, like, you know, we. We send over government officials, and then we. We don't hear much of anything or nothing at all or very little.
And, you know, did they leave the hotel room while they were there? Did they. What did they accomplish? You know, did they say hi to anybody? Like, where?
[00:47:59] Speaker B: And.
[00:48:00] Speaker A: And, yeah, it gets frustrating, right? As farmers, it's frustrating to. To not see action. Farmers are. They go out and they do it right. They. They have to go and do something. They go do it and they get it done, and they do it good. They do it well. They move on to the next thing, you know, government stuff. We all know it takes.
[00:48:19] Speaker B: Well, yeah, I mean, the alternative is to have your. Your prime minister or whatever tweeting, you know, his every, you know, stream of consciousness.
That's. That's not very helpful.
[00:48:29] Speaker A: No, that's not. Yeah, yeah, I don't want more of that. We have enough of that. Yeah.
Oh, man. You know, if you could just get a little heads up on that next tweet, Chuck, you know, we wouldn't be having this call today. It'd be on. On your private island somewhere, so.
[00:48:44] Speaker B: Yeah, well, I haven't been down to Mar a Lago, so I can't. I'm afraid I can't help you there.
[00:48:49] Speaker A: Fair enough.
All right, Chuck. Anything else? I do want to just thank you. You've done generously donated to our. Our online auction here starting up next month for the Canadian center for Agricultural well Being. So that, of course, all those monies that we collect in the auction will be, will be there to support the, the farmer crisis, mental health pharma crisis line. So really appreciate your support and, and your, your donation to that, to that event. So thank you.
Yep. All right, Chuck, have a great end of October. You watching the Blue Jays a little bit like the rest of the country.
[00:49:26] Speaker B: Where you have to spend the money on a SportsNet subscription for seven games of baseball. So. Yeah, you know, I'm just too cheap that way.
[00:49:35] Speaker A: So you're getting more sleep than the rest of us is what you're saying.
[00:49:38] Speaker B: Perfect. Yeah, well, for sure. After the one game. Yeah.
[00:49:41] Speaker A: All right, Chuck, take care. Okay.
[00:49:44] Speaker B: See you, Ryan.
[00:49:47] Speaker A: Alrighty, folks. Always great to have Chuck Penner join us on the podcast wealth of Knowledge. And breaking news for us on the India tariff as well. I tried to do some Googling after that interview and I didn't see it pop up anywhere quite yet. So of course by the time you hear this, it will be, it will be common knowledge.
All right. I just want to give a plug to the crop Marketing made Cool conference happening in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, December 9th to 11th. We actually, we, we have a pre conference zoom with all attendees. We were getting that firmed up in the calendar. Do a little zoom call before everyone heads down to Moose Jaw just to, just to make sure everyone's, you know, prepared, ready to rock and roll, uh, get some of the housekeeping stuff, uh, out of the way. And so, uh, head over to Ryandini Ca. We still have tickets available. We will still accept applications as well.
It is, you know, it's just at that fine point here we met with the, the hotel, I guess that was late last week now, but we did get one more table and so, you know, we're just kind of down to the, to the nitty gritty.
Then we'll keep you posted when we're sold out. As of recording here on October 28, we are still selling tickets. All right. Okay. Anything else conference related?
No, just that I, I need to get my, my butt in gear. I've got lots to do on my list for Moose Jaw, so hope to see you there. Positive moments for this week. Well, very happy Halloween. I, I dressed as what, a squid Last year on this podcast for the show.
No costume recording today, unfortunately. But I did, I did go to my kids preschool Halloween party on Wednesday and I did dress as a shark.
I went to Value Village with my wife. She loves Value Village. She loves goodwill and couldn't believe it. Found a shark costume that fit me within like 10 seconds. Of being there. Done. Everyone was calling me baby shark, though, which I was like, I think more daddy shark, everybody. But whatever, it was good. It was fun. It was Finley's first party.
Of course, he'll be three in January, and he was exhausted, which will be the theme the rest of this week. Halloween and small kids equals exhaustion.
Because we. We have to dress up 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 times.
Could be five different costumes, could be five of the same, but we'll be. We will be dressed up five times this week. So very happy Halloween to everybody. Looking forward to all the candy the kids are not going to eat and that I'll be consuming. All right.
Also, a very happy anniversary to the one person in the world who does not listen to this podcast on a regular basis in my life. You know, some of my family members will tune in from time to time. You know, in laws will tune in from time to time, but my lovely wife Chantal does not listen to the podcast. But I am going to wish her a happy anniversary. 15 years of wonderful marriage. Of course, everybody knows you've got ups and downs. You go through challenges throughout life with your partner, and we've been through a lot, a lot. And.
And we're still here, still going strong. And you know what?
At least on my side, I know I'm a. I'm a lucky guy and I hope she feels the same way, but I'm a lucky guy and very happy to celebrate 15 years of marriage this week on October 30th.
Now, we did get married in Jasper, Alberta. All right, this is like, we're both French, French, French, Metis, and we have big families.
So we went to our folks and said, hey, everybody, you know, we are going to get married. We're going to get married in Jasper because we love the mountains. And instead of the 450 people that you would normally want us to invite, we're going to invite 40 people to this to the wedding. So my grandpa came out on my dad's side. He had never seen the mountains before, and so that was very special for him to come out to the wedding and make that journey and see the mountains for the first time.
And one final little story about our wedding day. So we're getting married in Jasper, and we had got a puppy late that summer, so it was maybe end of August and it's end of October, and so we wanted to just throw the dog. We brought the dog with us to Jasper, but we thought we would kennel it, right? So we went to Hinton, we booked a kennel in Hinton for the dog.
And so the morning of, I'm like, you know, problem? I'll get up that morning, I'll drive to hinton. It's like 30 minutes, drop off the dog and come back to Jasper and continue on. So my brother jumps in with me. It's like, I'll go for a ride. We'll pick up some McDonald's, you know, have a egg McMuffin, coffee and just talk shop and make our way. Well, unfortunately, on our way to Hinton, there's a severe accident that shuts down the highway.
And so we're stopped on the highway.
And if you travel that road, there's no cell service. Okay.
Or there's spots where there's no cell service. And that's where we were. So we're on this highway, terrible accident, and the highway shut down.
And we're just. We're sitting there and we've got this dog and trying to figure out what to do. And we said, well, let's keep going. Like, the wedding's not till later this afternoon, so we'll keep going and it'll be fine that we'll drop the dog off. And as soon as we get to cell service, we'll let them know we're running late. Well, my. My dad calls and he's like, hey, guys, we're trying to get a hold of you. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, sorry, it was an accident.
You know, highway was shut down and we're on our way back and he's like, okay, good, good, Ryan. Because we. We were starting to wonder if he started traveling east and weren't coming back. So. Yeah. So a little funny story on. On wedding day. Not funny, unfortunately, but I was a little delayed getting back to. To the wedding. Now let's listen to just a couple of voicemails here from. From this week. We got some enthusiasm coming through, so let's cut to that for just a second.
[00:56:36] Speaker B: Hi, Ryan.
[00:56:36] Speaker A: This is Jacob calling from Milt, Alberta.
[00:56:41] Speaker B: Just wishing the Blue Jays, Go Jays, go. And bring her home.
Have a great day.
[00:56:47] Speaker A: Bye.
[00:56:49] Speaker B: Go Jays, go. Help me.
[00:56:51] Speaker A: Go, Jays, go.
[00:56:54] Speaker B: We're all for the Jays, Canada's team. Woo.
[00:56:58] Speaker A: Where do you farm?
[00:56:58] Speaker B: Oh, and we farm in Carstairs.
[00:57:01] Speaker A: Go, Blue Jays.
[00:57:03] Speaker B: Bring home the pennant.
[00:57:04] Speaker A: My daughter and I are cheering you on from Carstairs, Alberta, where we farm.
I appreciate you guys putting that effort in and especially to.
To Linda.
Linda, you.
Yeah, you're killing it there. Great voicemail. Thanks for sending that in. And we're going to pick our winner next week. Some Support coming out of. Do you guys hear Carstairs? I think I heard Carstairs there as well. So thanks for doing that. Of course. Voicemail sponsored by the Lunchbox Crew. I think this month, if I would look back at old episodes, that's my guess anyway. And all you have to do is go to the website with the Reachers podcast. Ca click on the send voicemail button, give me a Go. Blue Jays go series tied 2 2. As of recording, we are going to pick a winner next week.
You tell us where you farm and it's just for fun and we may play your voicemail on one of the podcast episodes as well.
So there you go, Lunchbox Crew. If you've seen our email or social media, I think we have room. We said five farms. It looks like there might be room for one or two more farms. If you want to join the Lunchbox Crew and partake in my version of crop marketing for this.
Well, for this winter, I guess for, well, for whenever it's a one month or one year subscription. So there you go. Check that out at Ryan Denis, ca couple things markets wise now, okay? Just, I don't want to get everyone like super excited and super hyped up. I think the tricky thing about recording this week is that in the next few hours, Trump and Xi are going to sign what could be some impactful trade deal of some sort.
And so it's a little tricky because what I think can happen here is a deal gets signed and the markets could pop and go and find that next level of resistance. Trent, last week on the show says, hey, you know, these, looks like these markets are going to be looking for a story right away because they're, they're, they're going up and sure enough, they did find their story as well. But yeah, even technically here it's positive things happening in the Canola market, positive things happening in the wheat market and some strength. And I just wonder if a China trade deal with the US can help provide that boost. And then if it doesn't, then, you know, do we see a pullback here? Technically things are looking okay, but do we see a pullback based off that? So it's tricky this week because I'm, I'm entering close to entering some, some sale zones here, some spots to get some, some crops sold. I'm looking at some gains here in wheat to, to see if I can extend sales there. I'm looking to gain a little bit more in Canola to see if I can extend some sales there. I don't want to say it all hinders on this deal, but it seems to be somewhat related.
All right. Anyways, a couple of things that stand out for me this week, been a little bit of export business that's been done here in the month of November for Canola seed. I'm seeing multiple locations, multiple companies, multiple locations with again, a better than posted price offer for Canola. You know, is it a number that gets you excited? Maybe not, but it's a positive sign that we have a little bit of export business happening.
You know, it, it's been all crush, all crush for a while here. A little bit of line company stuff, but not much. Then finally this week it, it kind of, you know, didn't break open, but it, it kind of break open for a little bit of movement into some of the, you know, the G3s, some of the, the bungies out there. Yeah, just seen a little bit of action. So that, that's good. Right, let's see if there's more to that. And then the other thing with the wheat market as well, you know, it's, it's slowly, slowly trending higher. Demand for wheat's been very strong as Chuck mentioned as well.
And we are seeing some of the, not quite the prices like rate heading into harvest, but not far behind. It's very close now. It's very close.
And you know, I think of some of the strategies here, you know, over the last couple months. But you know, we talked about selling, you know, early and then reowning wheat on, on paper with call options or something like that. You know, if you would have sold the wheat, also sold the market, sold futures or sold puts or pardon me, bought puts, you would have gained in that environment. But here's where those reownership strategies can be revisited because you're getting close to that break even point on your early fall sale. But the benefit is that that wheat's been gone for probably six, six weeks for some of you, money's been in the bank and just now you can look at reowning that wheat and participating in upside. So just lots going on here in these markets. Very, very busy. You know, I said two weeks ago I wasn't having fun.
Well, I'm having a bit more fun now because I'm certainly doing some stuff until the fall of 2026 here as well. Just a couple, let's just go through some of the smaller acre crops real quick. But I am seeing a very wide range in flax bids, in brown flax, so maybe 16 on the low end, but there was a 19 out there not long ago as well.
So maybe it's 18 now, but somewhere in there. So a wide range of flags. So just do your due diligence in that market. Feed barley markets starting to pick up here just a little bit. Chuck mentioned that as well, but starting to pick up just a little bit. Again, working out of a harvest low.
Not big gains expected, but again, a little bit of a rebound. So if you're looking to generate some cash flow, you know, there you go, it's coming. Canola basis, slight improvements out there. Again, not gonna, you know, light your socks on fire, but it is improving.
P Market. I really need to just park right now with this India thing again. Seeing some, you know, some markets holding like green peas and maple peas, but really need to digest this and figure this one out. Oats were quiet this week, guys. I didn't see much on oats. Lentils are very quiet for me as well. So, yeah, lentils, yeah, pretty quiet. Pretty quiet there. Let's get into eating your veggies here for this week. So I. I think I have four, but, you know, one thing I do, this is, number one, is about reflection. It's reflecting on the year itself. I don't think we brought this up last week, but this is something I do. It's number one agenda topic. Like, if I meet with a farm, there's a set agenda. There's always a set agenda. There has been for over a decade. But it's number one, just reflecting on the year. I call it the good, the bad, and the ugly. But just talking through what went on, you know, what some of the wins are or is there anything new that we tried that we want to make sure we duplicate and. And continue to do that moving forward? Is there something that we've been trying that just isn't working, but just some reflection about how the year went? How did our. How did we feel about the year? How did. How does the year look financially? You know, how is the stress level decision tree? Like, how did that go down? Was it something that was manageable?
Did any team member get, you know, too much stress or pressure or not enough? Maybe in some cases not stress, but, you know, I don't know if that makes sense. But yeah, you know, maybe everyone contributing in a similar way or something like that. I don't know if I'm saying that properly, but just some. Some good, honest reflection on the year and some hard conversations as well. It can lead to some hard conversations. You know, I'm hearing all sorts of scenarios out There all sorts of decisions needing to be made and some of them are exciting and some of them are heavy. All right, number two, you know, I think that I've got some target stuff hereafter, but let's switch to just making that crop marketing plan for next year. I had a great conversation, lots of great conversations lately, but actually just a back and forth on email about some marketing decisions for the 2026 crop. Dwayne with Grain metrics. He's a solid dude. He'll be at the conference presenting.
Just a really, really good person to have on your crop marketing team. We're just talking about the markets and, and I, I appreciate his insight, but we were just talking him through some, some scenarios for the 2026 canola crop and the wheat crop as well.
And you know, just reminded that some of our wheat sales for, for next year, you know, they happened this past May and June.
You know, it just kind of came up that, oh yeah, I was doing this back in late May and I'm like, oh yeah, right, I forgot about some of those wheat sales that are already on the books at, you know, 40, 50, 60 cents higher than current, current values. Right. And so to sit down, I'm not sitting saying that you have, you know, you have to sit here and, and, and you know, think you're behind. That's not what I'm saying.
What I'm saying here is that you have, you have hopefully an opportunity to sit down and start to create that marketing plan. If you haven't done one already, start create that marketing plan for this next year, you know, your November 1st. Where, where do you want to be for sales for canola and for 2026 crop or weed or whatever you're growing? You know, is there a specialty crop where you want to start finding production contracts or you know, start to build your case on how much you want to have sold, how much you should have sold, how that ties into your cash flow needs, but start to create that crop marketing plan if you haven't already. It's just sitting with farms. The last, you know, last number of weeks. The agenda. If there's 15 items on the agenda, five of them are 25 crop. It's all old crop. I'm already, it's already very old crop to me. And it's all about next year. It's all about 2026. Everything else on the agenda is all forward thinking. All right, so that's where my state of mind is. Number three targets if you need to generate cash flow. Well, most of us Most of us do. Just getting those targets in place, being proactive, getting the dollars in place before you actually need them, and just getting those targets out, get them sprayed out there, get them figured out, get them out there and, and get yourself in a position to manage your cash flow stick, handle your cash flow needs. And then the other one. Canola targets for the fall of 2026. I was talking to a farm today about a 1475 target for next fall for off combine. What happens if there's a positive trade update here between China and the US what happens if this market magically pops 25 cents and that's a 15.
Like we're going to do a 1475. We're going to do something there for sure. But, you know, like, now it could be a time there's good carry in this market. Could be a time to get some of this, some of this done, some of this going. So just getting those canola targets, get some of that profitability locked in for the fall of 2026. Doesn't have to be a bunch, can just be a starting point. But I like doing that as well. All right, folks, I just want to end this week's episode 99. We'll do something fun for episode 100. But for 99 here, I want to end by thanking everyone that entered the harvest hustle contest.
62 farms participated. Some farms sent in multiple pictures. They're all on the website.
Over a hundred pictures. Great shots from across the prairies. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta.
Some stories to go with it.
And I just appreciate everyone that participated sent in those photos. You'll see them on our social media, you know, over the next little while, uh, you'll see them come across just some phenomenal photos. Like, if you guys want to, you know, look at a career in photography at some point, maybe in your retirement years or something like that, there's some absolute great shots. All right, so we, we went, we looked through the pictures. We all picked some of our favorites. Amanda, Yvonne, myself, I emailed everyone to see, like, who out of those, like, who would be available to attend the event in Halifax, the curling trials, right? Curling tickets, flights, hotel meals. And so some people were honest and said, you know what? I'm going to struggle with child care. You know what, I got another thing going on that week, or, you know, thanks for, for picking me into the final round here, but I just can't do it. And it's so totally fair. It's a big commitment. So again, we did that. At the end of the day, we spun the wheel. Congratulations to JC Lebra. They farm out in, I'd say the Arbor Field, Saskatchewan area, Northeast Saskatchewan.
JC Is our winner for the Harvest Hustle contest.
Sent in a great shot. You'll see it on our social media. But they got their little one there and in the background, the combines going by and just it's a great shot and a great story from their farm. They, they grow many different crops. They're involved in the, in the the bee industry as well.
And big congratulations to JC again, JC LeBroff out of the Arborfield area and Northeast Saskatchewan. You're our winner for the Harvest Hustle contest. And thanks again to everybody that participated. All right, folks, that's it for episode 99 of the what the Futures podcast. Thanks for hanging out with me this week. Any questions, comments, concerns? Ryan what the futurespodcast CA that's my email. Happy to connect and look forward to talking to you again here in episode 100 for the what the Futures podcast. I'm out of here.
