Episode Transcript
[00:00:03] Speaker A: Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast, episode number 47. As always, recorded in the UPL studio. I hope you're having a great, positive Friday. I've got Trent Clarenbach with Clarenbach Research. He's joining us in Drumheller. He's going to give us a little bit of a teaser here in this week's episode. We're going to talk about the conference in Drumheller. I've got more details for you. We've got the latest on crop marketing. What the heck is going on with wheat prices across the prairies? What is going on with fertilizer markets? And hey, what's even going on with how to buy canola seed right now? Let's talk about that in episode 47. So buckle up. Let's get going. Let's get after it.
Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast, where we break down complex market trends into simple, actionable advice. It's your quick guide to better farming decisions.
All right, folks, welcome into the episode here, episode 47. I'm feeling a little bit rusty after taking a week off last week. I'm not sure if you guys missed the show or not, but we had, you know, a loss in on my wife's side of the family, spent some time in Saskatchewan, which, you know, is, it was bittersweet. It led to some positive moments as well, which you'll see later on in this episode. But I back behind the microphone a little rusty, trying to get the, the kinks worked out here and get back into that groove, right.
So, of course, I've, I'm your host here of the what the Futures podcast. I have spent my career working with farmers across the prairie provinces, helping them with their crop marketing decisions as a buyer, coach, analyst. Even led a group of analysts for a little while there with FBNA and decide to do the what the Futures podcast here. It's going to be a year coming up in just a couple of weeks, right? November of 2023 is when we got started. So lots to go over in this episode. Lots to talk about.
I can't believe we got Trent Klarnan back with us, but I can't believe I'm so excited.
We have Roxane liverse with Rob o bank, the head of Rob O Bank Canada.
She's going to join us for the first night of the make crop marketing cool conference in Drumheller, and her presentation is off the charts. It's. I am so pumped for night one of the conference.
I've been watching Yvonne and the marketing team put together some of our content that we started to put on social media here finally. And the reason I say finally is because you guys have responded like, you guys are buying tickets, booking hotel rooms. It is filling out applications. It's phenomenal to see. And so we were talking, like, do we even have to promote this on social media, really? But we have been, and the stuff's awesome. Anyways, I am so pumped for the conference. Trent and I are going to talk about it as well in this week's episode. And I've got some updates for you as well over the next few minutes in regards to the conference and other things. And each and every week, I say a big thank you to John Deere for your support of the what? The Futures podcast. So big shout out to you guys. I wanted to just spend a quick second here.
We think of John Deere. We think of the wonderful equipment, the x nine, so on and so forth. But John Deere also has harvestprophet.com, harvest profit, uh, where you can go and get set up for your, for your profit cost and profit tracking. You can go and get set up for your cost of production planning. Right now, it's super important. You're making fertilizer decisions, seed decisions. You're already in mode for next year, at least. I am. I know you are, too, and I am. So go check out harvestprophet.com and check out that great software they have for farmers, uh, farmers who care about that stuff. Let's get into it.
All right, folks, I have Trent Clarenbach with Clarenbach research joining me on the podcast. Trent, how's your week going?
[00:04:15] Speaker B: All the week's going great. It's, you know, we're in Saskatoon here. It's nice out. And the markets, they're always exciting. So.
[00:04:22] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, you bet. We've had an, like, incredible week of, or a couple nice days of weather. Anyway, it's been a nice little surprise for October.
[00:04:31] Speaker B: Yeah, for sure.
[00:04:32] Speaker A: So, Trent, I'm excited that you're on the podcast this week because we've been working hard in the background on putting together the conference here in December in Drumheller, the make crop marketing cool conference. You're coming to the conference, which is so exciting. And we've been asking farmers, I know it's not the most popular thing, but we've been asking farmers to apply to the conference because we want farmers in the room. Okay? We don't want just industry folks there. We want farmers in the room. And so farmers have been applying, and we've been asking them. I think there's nine categories. What do you want to hear or what are you most excited to see?
And technical analysis comes up in the top two out of nine. What do you think about that?
[00:05:19] Speaker B: Well, I'm pleasantly surprised. I would never have guessed that. But I'm glad it's getting some recognition and people are taking interest.
[00:05:29] Speaker A: Yeah. I think you're going to have a very engaged crowd for you in Drumheller. So that's exciting.
I want to know, man, do you have, like, if you were, you know, you're, you're at the back of the room, you're about to go on stage. Like, do you have a walk up song that you'd want, like play? Is there anything that stands out for you?
[00:05:47] Speaker B: I should have. That. I should have an entrance song that would get me pumped up. It can be a little.
Well, it's getting easier, but, you know, the first few times I've walked up on stage, it's. You're kind of, you're shaking, you're sweating. It's nerve. And this could be a tough crowd. It could be a tough crowd and drum heller, too, so we'll see.
[00:06:06] Speaker A: Well, I. Yeah, you know, I didn't like public speaking at all at the start of my career. I would just, I'd lose sleep the, the night before and I'm an easy blusher as well. Right. So I get on stage, I'm red as a tomato. No matter what happens, I'm red as a tomato. So. Yeah. But now I love it. So I've been, I've been looking at my presentation, starting to build mine, and I'm incorporating a lot of music into my presentation for the one night. And I've been trying to pick walk up songs and man, I think I've got 50 to pick.
It's been lots of fun. Yeah. So, no, Jordan Heller is going to be an absolute blast. So can you without giving it away here. But is there anything in your presentation that you could give us a bit of a teaser or just a couple of highlights on what you plan on covering in Drumheller?
[00:06:58] Speaker B: So the title of my presentation will be a cheat code for grain marketing. And it sounds a little clickbaitish and it sounds, maybe it's supposed to get your attention a little bit, but it's what I really believe is what, a cheat code for grain marketing and investing or even stock trading for that matter. And basically it's a breakdown of trend analysis, how to identify where you are in the trend and how to identify entry when you want to enter the trend and where you want to exit the trend. And also I discuss the emotions commonly felt in each of those, each part of the trend cycle or the four stages of the market structure. And the reason I do that is I think to be successful in business and life is to really, you really need to understand who you are and the better understanding of who you are. I think you'll be more successful with decision making. So I discussed that in my presentation and bring some attention to it.
[00:08:01] Speaker A: Awesome. Well, that sounds fantastic. And we want farmers to come and sit and learn, take notes. And it looks like you're going to definitely check the boxes for that. So that's great. Have our first night, our keynote. I don't want to announce it quite yet, but their presentation is on each individual's not risk tolerance, but how you evaluate risk as a person, because we're all different. And so I think that and your presentation actually kind of lines up a little bit there, too. So cool.
All right, so you put out a ton of information and folks, Clarin back research. That's where you have to Google and get on Trent's website and get some of it, get some of his information going. You're putting out a lot of stuff. I've been reading a pile of your stuff here lately. Anything kind of stand out from a market's perspective? I noticed a few things myself, but I want you to share with us what you're seeing out there.
[00:09:01] Speaker B: Well, it's interesting time. So the overall trend in most of these markets remains down. So basically I'm bearish on the longer term timeframes. I need to respect the primary trend, which is down. However, we're seeing, I feel beginning and maybe I've actually already seen it, is what I call a bear market rally. So we're actually seeing a rally in, well, probably all the commodities and off this low from this late summer. And, and it's starting to, you know, you want to use the term green shoots, see some green shoots. Maybe you're starting to see some reasons to think this could, this rally could sustain itself further into the later fall, maybe the new year. There's some heavy lifting overhead. There's a lot of supply overhead, most of these markets, but a lot of them are at technical and, you know, resistance levels. So I don't think it's going to, if it goes up, it's not going to go up in a straight line. But I think there was a bit of a capitulation moment, late summer, maybe early harvest. And I think that typically symbolizes a bottom of the market. So we'll see if that holds true or not.
[00:10:14] Speaker A: I've noticed in your research the short term, maybe neutral bullish stuff. And then long term, I keep seeing the bearish and I'm like, I can't wait till he turns that one into neutral or bullish for us because that's the big one that I want to see on that.
All right, folks, what's cool and crop marketing for this week? Well, a hodgepodge of things here. Number one, we should talk about fertilizer here. Like I'm recording this Wednesday afternoon, Hurricane Milton is about to make landfall here, somewhere between Tampa Bay and Sarasota. Josh Linville with Stonex has been all over this here the last four or five days, obviously, Florida phosphate, key area of production there. So we're seeing phosphate prices climb across the prairies. You're seeing urea values climb as well. You've got tension war, I should say tension war in the Middle east.
Lots of things happening that I sit here and I kind of want to dig in my heels and say, well, economics are terrible, fertilizer prices need to come down. But yet environmental factors are changing that. Geopolitical events are changing that.
I have to eat crow here a little bit or I have to pivot from my cockiness of, oh, we're going to wait and we're all going to band together and we're going to wait, and this fertilizer market is going to come down. We waited. Fertilizer market stayed steady. But things are starting to happen now, which, again, I don't like, I don't like changing my position here like this. But you know, what is going to, what's going to allow fertilizer prices to drop? Maybe your real prices don't climb very much, very fast, but what's going to lead to it dropping? And I'm trying to figure out what that is. What I'll say to you, though, is things are evolving here. And, you know, I think it's, I don't think it is worth a review of your plan when it comes to fertilizer. Okay. Now I've got a presentation here in December about efficiencies when it comes to fertilizer at the conference.
I'm hoping to get that individual on pre conference to talk about it a little bit. But efficiencies, that's very important for 2025. But I just think that are happening here in the market, out of our control, that can lead to higher prices, and we have to talk about it.
Wheat basis continues to improve. But in some parts, parts of the prairies, that nearby demand is kind of filled up. You know, you saw targets hitting. You saw lots of movement for wheat. That movement's still there, and targets are still very effective. In fact, I like having a wheat target in place right now, 40, $0.50 above the market, depending on where you're at, just because they seem to be triggering. And as a, as and as Trent Clarenbach said, the wheat chart looks pretty good, too. You might say, well, Ryan, that's kind of crazy. Why would you throw a target out there when the market's looking healthy? And the reason I do is because you want to grab. They're not just changing basis willy nilly across the prairies. They're not just changing basis here and saying, oh, here's a better basis for you. Like, away you go. Like, the way they're doing it is they're, they're doing it through targets first. And then once they get kind of, that's done, they've bought what they can, then they go and improve basis after that. Or think about it. So it's not just happening. You got to have it on a target to get some action there. I forgot my buddy just texted me as I'm recording. My other puzzle moment is I get to go to the Oilers game here on Wednesday, the home opener against Winnipeg. And I'm wearing my western Conference championship hat from last year, but I get, he won a package. I get to go and tour Roger's place, like in the behind the scenes on game day. So I'm super pumped for that. He just sent me a text, wheat. Lower protein. Wheat.
It is being bought in portions of the prairies with no discount. So what I mean by that is posted bid for a 113 five, and you have a 112 five. They're not discounting you in portions of the prairies. Okay? So if you're sitting here under with some lower protein, it's now at the point, and I said this right a while back, that we might see this while starting to happen. Now our protein discounts are, are, are not there. They're, they're, they're void.
You can haul a twelve five against your 13 five with no discount in portions of the prairies. Okay. Seeing some of this in Alberta, seeing some of this in Saskatchewan. If you're in this situation with some low protein stuff, worth the conversation with your buyers. All right, 2025, fall of 2025, offers are coming out, lots of action.
CPS prices, hard red prices, canola prices. Things are happening with many companies now for next year, again, financial plan break even. What are you staring at for margin? Then you can go and start working your plan on the sales side. I know some of you don't like that. You don't want to forward contract. You don't have maybe the confidence to forward contract. I get it. I understand.
I'm not the one who had to write the biocheck, right? You did, potentially. But you're going to come to Drumhall, or you're going to learn how to tackle that and how to gain some confidence in that plan. All right. But 2025 offers are exciting because we get a chance to start getting some margin locked in. Right? Am I excited to lock in a loss this early? No, it's one of my crop marketing rules. You know, I don't lock in a loss this early in the marketing plan unless I really think this thing doesn't have any more life to it. But so much stuff can happen, uh, during the growing season. If I'm staring down a loss, I just leave it for the time being until I get that crop much closer to, uh, to harvest yellow peas. Just wanted to make a comment on this, and, you know, I'll let you shrug your shoulders on this one a little bit. But. So, back in the day, as a buyer, so yellow pea bids are, they're kind of stagnant. They're, they've rallied and then just kind of backed off here, or, pardon me, held for the most part. But someone asked me, like, Ryan, yellow pea should be climbing. Like, what's up? Why, why aren't they climbing anymore? And so what can happen is when, when your merchant comes to you as a buyer, they'll say, hey, you know, we, we have a chance at some more peas here. Let us know what volume, how many cars could you buy? Could you do a full train of peas at a set price? And then you, as a buyer, you might phone a few farmers and test the waters and see what they say.
But if you're, if you as a, as the buyer, if you come back and you don't have confidence in that price, then that train doesn't necessarily get booked, or it doesn't get booked. Right. And so for some regions, I'm not saying that we've run out of yellow peas, but we've shipped a lot more yellow peas than I think, what a lot of people assume, and so do the buyers, and the merchants have confidence that they can go and get what they need at a certain price. So things are just kind of quiet. Farmers aren't really selling. The merchants aren't super excited, getting everyone excited on the buy side. So, you know, I think we just need to see some confidence from the merchant that they're going to be able to buy at that next level. And because as a farmer, are you going to sell it? That's what I asked the other grower. I'm like, if they came at you with twelve, are you selling it? He's like, I don't know. I'm like, exactly how do you think the merchant feels on that side? So I don't know, something to think about there, maybe shrug your shoulders at that one. And then lastly, I had red lentils here making a move, 32, 32 and a half cents. Some portions of the prairies again coming out of a bit of a seasonal bottom here. I thought production was good on lentils. I thought Australia looked pretty good. But hey, a little bit of demand here, you know, leading into red lentils. And in my opinion, it's giving you a selling opportunity here. I like getting some red lentils sold at these values. I was a seller before this. I'm still a seller at where we're at today, canola. I didn't have much. I saw no beans were pulling back. Some of the bullish oilseed stories have relaxed here a little bit.
You've got, well, China and the financial stimulus package. Everyone looking for a bit more there and didn't get it. So China, the recession over there or the economic issues that can kind of weigh. You've got a good window for soybean harvest in the US. Nice open window there. So that's putting a bit of pressure on beans, I'll say, on canola.
You know, I've been a fairly, I was a heavier seller earlier this, well, late spring, early summer and a bit more here last August and August. I haven't done anything on the canola side here for 24. I've been picking away at 2025 sales.
But I just don't mind the setup here. I know the charts pulling back, but I don't mind the setup right now on the chart. And I just see these lower canola yields across the prairies and I just, to me, the stats can number is going to come down again. All right. So that's why I'm not too eager there. Uh, that's it for what's cool and crop marketing this week. And uh, yeah, we'll see what we can come up with for next week. And now it's time for one of my favorite segments of each and every week. Positive moments of course, a chance where I get to overshare with you. But anyways, this week, I've got a couple here.
First of all, Finn. So Finn is. He's going to be two in January, right? And so it's so exciting to watch these small children, watch them evolve. But he has now strung together two words, and it has been life changing for all of us in the house. Okay? Can you guess what those two words are?
So what he's doing now, he's roaming around the house in the yard, and he looks at something. Then he looks at me, looks at it again. Then he looks back at me and says, what's that?
That's it. What's that?
Instead of grunting and pointing or whatever, what's that? You should see the explanations that I have to come up with now. There's a few things where I'm like, what's that? I I don't even know what that is, dude. But anyways, what's that? It's been blowing our mind here over the last week. Uh, it's been. Yeah, life changing. Uh, second positive moment. So, like I said earlier in the episode, you know, we, La Chantelle's grandmother and her gathering was last week, funeral and celebration of life and all that stuff. But I also.
I got to be on the farm for the last day of harvest, which was not in the plans originally, and weather was part of that, and travel was part of that. But we got to be there. Finley and I were there for the last day of harvest. We got to be in the field with the demo combine. We had an x nine out. Finley's been pretty spoiled just cruising in x nine's all fall. It was x nine's with Rick and Scott and the farm, and so he's pretty spoiled, but we got to be there. We got to throw the hat in the combine at the very end. And, hey, the yield was. Yeah, it was actually pretty good the last couple days on the canola, as well. So that was a nice, pleasant surprise. So it was really. I haven't been on the farm but the last day of harvest in quite a while, so it's pretty cool, uh, to be there and to have, you know, our machines, the demo, and the neighbors. You know, the goyers were over helping, as well. So there was, you know, five combines out there, two grain carts, three semis, and it was chaos, and it was just so cool and fun to be out there.
Last positive moment, uh, for the week, and I'll just see if I can pull this up. It's from the lunchbox crew, but this came from one of the guys in the lunchbox coup, and he says, thank you for the Tim's coffee and doughnuts. I'll talk about that another day. It was nice. It was a nice treat in the middle of harvest. Also, thanks to the lunchbox crew for helping to provide information and confidence to execute our grain marketing plan. All of our grain is in the elevator. We finished with a 1394 per bushel average on canola and a 902 bushel average on wheat, hard red spring wheat.
So the reason that this is in my positive moments is because we all have different plans. Okay. Like.
Like, these folks move everything in the fall very, very quickly. A 902 average, and it's all in the elevator. Like, that's incredible.
But the. The key here is they executed their plan with confidence, finished their crop marketing year how they wanted to finish. And, hey, with those prices, I think that's pretty cool, as well. So I thought that was a really nice, positive moment for the week and a little feather in the cap for the lunchbox crew, as well, and for the farm, for. They're the ones doing all the hard work out there, but they executed their plan and got it done, and that's why it's positive.
If you look at commodities as a whole, is there. Is there any one that is performing maybe more, a little different than others? Is there one that's showing maybe more life or less life? Anything kind of stand out the last couple days?
[00:25:04] Speaker B: Well, canola, you know, gets our attention, and, you know, we saw that rally in canola and found resistance right where we anticipated. It was a technical level of resistance, and we're getting that pullback now.
I like how that canola chart feels to me. I think there's opportunity for some higher prices there. But, I mean, everything from the wheats, hard red spring wheat in particular, probably looks the best, in my opinion, off the cuff. Best, in my opinion. So I'm excited about that one.
[00:25:39] Speaker A: Yeah, I'm with you. I was looking at the Wechat this morning and thinking, hmm, this one's interesting. It's not as. Doesn't seem as scary as. As it was. So. All right, now, I want to switch gears just a little bit here, and I want to give listeners just a peek at how you deliver your information as well. I feel like you've made a little tweak here lately on how you deliver your info. Is there, Mike? Is that something real, or am I just kind of dreaming that?
[00:26:07] Speaker B: No, I think you can. That's a fair assessment. So when I first started, I was concerned about too many emails, too much content, and I was publishing basically when I saw something that was interesting to me, I was just cognizant of not putting out too much information. And then I started getting feedback people wanted. You know, I like to see more content. It's been a week or a two weeks since you've talked about red lentils, right. So I started publishing more frequently. We started producing videos, I think, back in May, and I quite enjoy doing the videos and getting more comfortable in front of the videos. And I also believe that's a good way of learning. I seem to learn best from the combination of visual and hearing, actually listening and sight.
What I started doing is I started doing more frequent newsletters, trying to cover all the newsletters in a timely fashion, and incorporated videos with a summary in the newsletter. So the newsletter, the print portion, I'll call it, is shorter than it used to be, but it contains a summary of the video and I'm getting positive feedback with that also. So I think people are in their machines, they're driving down the road, they can listen, they can, you know, watch if they're in their combine or something, I guess. And it's, it seems to be a good way to deliver. So I've really amped it up that way. So.
[00:27:36] Speaker A: Yeah. Awesome. Well, I, you know, I, I like being able to pick and choose and so you send it out and some stuff. I'm like, yeah, I really got to read that now or so listen now or watch it now and then other things I, okay, I'm going to check that one out a little bit later or it's not as urgent for my operation. So that's great. Okay. So I just want to go back here just a little bit as well, you know, for yourself. Coming out to drum Heller, is there anything you're looking forward to specifically by making the journey out to Alberta?
[00:28:05] Speaker B: I really enjoy being in a room of progressive thinkers and I like what you're doing. I know some of the people who are using your service, your lunchbox crew, and, you know, and I see what you're doing. I like what you're doing. I champion what you're doing. I see other people who are, you know, or following along and joining your team and I, you know, I just can't stress enough how I just enjoy being in a room full of progressive farmers and I think you're attracting them. So I'm really looking forward to Bromheller.
[00:28:41] Speaker A: Yeah. Yeah, me too. We've got, Yvonne's been putting just a pile of effort in the background. She helps me with all the marketing stuff and she keeps everything organized and moving for me. And like, we are just really dialed into even the small details. And I'm, I'm going to be super excited watching people, you know, walk in with a smile on their face and, and see what comes out of it. I know that there's going to be a lot of positive that comes out of it and that everyone's going to take away some learnings and some education and it's going to make them even better crop marketers in 2025 and beyond. And so that's what I'm really excited about, too.
[00:29:19] Speaker B: I agree. I think it's a great concept and I think it's, I think it's going to be a great event. Looking forward to it.
[00:29:24] Speaker A: All right. We've talked about some markets, you know, that are, you know, turning a little friendlier in the short term here. We've talked about the conference. We're going to work on your walk up song. We'll see if we can get something for you and Drumheller, anything else you want to cover off today? Trent, I really appreciate you coming on.
[00:29:40] Speaker B: Well, I just, I'm thankful for the opportunity, Ryan, I always enjoy our conversations and I, you know, again, I like what you're doing. I, you know, I got respect for what you're doing.
I was telling someone the other day that, yeah, this Ryan, he's solid is what I told him.
[00:29:58] Speaker A: I appreciate that. Yeah.
[00:30:00] Speaker B: And, yeah, so it's good.
Again, I'm looking forward to drum howler. I think hopefully my presentation there, it'll provide a different spin to brain marketing. And I do believe that we're emotional creatures and we really, we can understand how we feel, what we're feeling and why we're feeling that way. I think we can make better decisions, just not only in grain marketing, but our economic decisions and maybe our land purchases, machinery purchases, everything else. So I think it's a concept that's often overlooked and underestimated. When I first started trading, for example, I didn't understand that. And it's critical to really have some understanding of emotions and develop some sort of control over them.
[00:30:48] Speaker A: Oh, yeah, I'm an emotional person. You know, I'm french, so I'm an emotional person. And yeah, there's certain times where I get caught for sure, where I'm emotionally invested in, you know, what I think this market's going to do and it does the opposite. And I sit there frustrated, wondering what, you know, why didn't I see that? Or what am I missing here? But it happens to me as well. All right, Trent. Well, I can't wait to see in Drumheller. We got a room full of great farmers coming to the conference, and I really appreciate taking time jump on the podcast this week.
[00:31:20] Speaker B: Well, thank you very much, Ryan. And I look forward to Drumheller also. It'll be a good time.
[00:31:24] Speaker A: Take care.
[00:31:25] Speaker B: Thank you.
[00:31:29] Speaker A: So for housekeeping this week, couple things here. I'm gonna. I'm gonna spend most of the time here talking about some conference stuff. But before we get to that, you know, I'm traveling between Edmonton and Saskatoon and seeing the amount of canola and oats left to harvest. So I think we got to keep the song of the week going. For those of you that are grinding it out into Thanksgiving weekend and beyond, I know it's not over for many of you. You'll be going here mid to late October as well. So, you know, stay after it. You're doing a great job out there. But my song of the week is beds are burning by midnight oil. And if you're like me, you sit here and say, what is he talking about, burning? Beds are burning. Just once you hear it, you're like, oh, yeah, that song. It's one of those that you just don't, you don't think about very often. All right, so we got that. Now can we talk just for a second? I just want to slip this in here because it's a little bit of like a trade industry secret. I'm a grain guy, right? I've been selling grain and advising farmers, like, that's what I do. But I've always worked with farmers to help them increase the bottom line on the farm. Okay?
Increase, you know, margin. And so sometimes we talk about the purchase side of things on the farm. And I just want to tell you about a little canola seed story here from the last couple of days. Number one, when it comes to canola seed prices, as a farmer, as a buyer, the early bird does not get the worm in the canola seed game. So back, I worked for a company back in the day, and I got exposed to the canola seed side, actually, with two different companies, and everybody sits and plans all year long about price and what price is going to be. And then they. Okay. And then they finally, they put the price out there. All right? They put their price out to. Out there to farmers. And it's always the highest price. It's the highest one. Okay? Because then the. The intel starts coming in. The intel comes in. Whoa, that guy's. That company's lower there. Oh, well, they're higher, okay. It starts to roll in, and it moves. The market moves, okay? It always moves.
And this is what's happening this week. Now, I. It's not gonna be a surprise to you, listening, but if you're in a spot where a company has high market share, so they have done their work to grow their market share in your area, their prices are. They tend to be higher for you. So, you know, call it seed a, b, and c. They are different all across the prairie. See, everybody knows this, right? But the area where everyone has decided that that's the one that they like the most and are buying, your price is the highest, which you might think that's. Well, Ryan, that seems backwards, but no, it's. You're already going to book it. Any or not that you're going to book it anyway, but you're booking that. You know, your market share's there, the data is there. That's the one you like, your area likes, so your price is higher, and then all of a sudden, you have areas where they're trying to increase market share, and that's where the prices are lowest. All right? And so we saw some action here in Saskatchewan this week where one area, again, price is high. Got some data for some lower prices out of another area. And, yeah, there's. There was some price change of, um, a $50 a bag. Uh, $50 a bag. What was that? Five ish percent of the, uh, you know, five, six and a half percent, something like that, of the price, uh, changing. Uh, but we're seeing prices evolve. Okay? And, you know, this is a podcast about crop marketing, but this is a podcast about, uh, know, transparency and as much as we can in agriculture across the prairies. And, you know, I've said it last year as well. Like, we'll. We'll pick out things that are. That are interesting. So my, you know, my rant or not my rant, but my rambling here just means that if you. Once you get your quotes out there and you get them back from a few companies, you know, just. You don't have to. You don't have to jump right away. You can revisit and. And see what transpires. The lunchbox crew, again, the power of information and a network.
We. We talk about different things. We had a great discussion about yield and. And what varieties performed in what ways across the prairies. And as you can tell, like some varieties perform very well in some areas and not as great in other areas as very interesting to see. But it was farmer to farmer conversation and farmer to farmer reviewing results. And then, of course, we've been talking about some other fertilizer prices and canola seed prices. And, you know, yeah, it's the power of a network and just kind of grounding what we're seeing out there. And again, it's really fun to watch. Really, really fun. So that's kind of my canola seed thing for this week. Again, I'm not trying to throw anybody under the bus. Everything I said, there is common industry knowledge, but the early bird doesn't get the worm. In this case, it never does. So just circle back, you know, do a bit more digging. And it wouldn't surprise yourself, like, if you had a farming family member, like, in another part of a province, and you were like, hey, by the way, would you care to tell me, like, what did you get for this variety? You might be surprised. That difference in price in my region as well. I know who is the most aggressive. I think I know who's the most aggressive on price. And it's something. It's interesting. It's fun to watch. All right, let's talk about the conference here and a couple things. So again, thank you. Your enthusiasm, excitement, your willingness to apply is just phenomenal. And I want to talk about some of these applications anonymously in just a second because there's a theme here, and you might be sitting on the fence thinking, well, I don't know if this conference is for me, but I want you to hear why some people are coming. I also want to say before I get to those, is that we are having a pre conference Zoom call, some pre work. It's going to be mid November here, and we're going to do an hour, maybe an hour and a half. We're going to record it. So if you are registered for the conference and can't make it, we'll get that recording to you. But it's for people that are registered to come to the conference. We want everyone to have a certain baseline of knowledge and also just things that you can prepare at home in preparation for the conference, because I think there's little things that you can do to get yourself ready. And we kind of will start the work a little early because I'm just realizing, you know, two ish days of content spread over three, I don't know, two days on a night, I guess. But, you know, we could go a week, right, and still not cover everything. So we're going to do a pre conference and we're going to do a post post conference Zoom call as well, just to see how everyone's making out with their crop marketing plans. And just to again, share some expertise from some of the great folks across western Canada.
Here are a couple of applications that came through. And again, I'm not going to say names, it's not important in this area, but we asked one of the questions, what challenges are you currently facing in crop marketing? And this answer came through. We asked, I don't know, a dozen questions here or so, but.
So what challenges are you currently facing? Crop marketing. Executing on sales and getting over the feeling of, you know, what if it goes higher, right. That emotional side, that's a very, very big one and a very difficult one to cover. Not sure where to begin to make a crop marketing plan. Like what is a crop marketing plan and how do we, where do we start? We're going to talk about that at the conference. I have a trading account, but I want to gain confidence in how to use it. That's a huge one. The next one, the next application here. What challenges are you currently facing? Reluctant to sign up for targets when these markets are so volatile. Confidence in the ability to make good marketing decisions. What challenges are you currently facing? Market volatility. You know, what do you hope to achieve by attending the conference? A better understanding of hedging.
If we, if we talk about who's coming as teammates as well. There's lots of parents and, and their, their kids that, well, you know, some kids are my age, right? Like there's a few or my dad's 60 something, I'm 30 something. We're coming to the conference. There's a lot of that. What do you hope to achieve by attending this conference? New strategies to help with cash flow and reduce risk. What challenges are you facing? Being profitable. You know, worried about buyouts. That comes through quite a bit here. What challenges are you facing?
Time is so limited. Plus I don't have the best idea on when or what to sell. So simply deciding to sell when price is higher and cash is required doesn't sound right. That's a lot of stuff coming here as well as selling when they need, when you need cash, we, of course that's important.
Know, I talk about it all the time with the banker. You got to keep the banker happy, but usually the selling decision. And when you need cash flow, you have to separate those out. In many cases, lots of, you know, learning more about options trading. A futures account that comes through on a lot of applications, understanding the jargon in marketing, all the different terms out there, what are you currently facing for a challenge? Uh, well, they've got a diverse farm with different, you know, parents and, and kids involved, and everyone's got a different level of understanding of markets. This, this is all the stuff coming through in the applications, folks, and I'll continue to talk about these stories over the next couple of weeks. But again, this conference is, is made for you. It's made for farmers across the prairies. It's farmers in the room. And those are some of the challenges and some of the things that people are, are looking to take away from the crop marketing conference here in Drumheller.
The last thing I want to say on this and I'll move on, is the agenda.
We have a lot of areas covered off here, but I'm just curious if there's anything else, top of mind, you can email me, Ryan, at whatthefuturespodcast dot CA and say, ryan, you need to cover this topic. You need to cover this in Drumheller. Let me know what that is. And hey, we'll try to make sure we can get that covered as well, but we have a huge agenda here already. Okay. Yeah, that's it for housekeeping for this week. All right. For eating your veggies this week, brought to you by the crop marketing made cool conference in Drumheller. Head over to Ryan Dinny, CA. You'll see 2024 conference. You can go there, you can apply for the conference, and we can get you set up to buy some tickets there as well. Four things this week. Number one, fertilizer needs. You got to review those needs, and you have to consider booking your fertilizer. We talked about it enough today. You've been hearing about it all over the marketplace. I do think you have to do that as well. Number two, canola seed again, um, maybe that segment rubbed a few people the wrong way. We'll see. But, uh, uh, you know, you can grind a little bit there and get some of those prices down. 2025. So, uh, eating your veggies. Number three, your 2025 crop plan. Take a look at it, update it, do a little cost of production work. You know, it's, we've been working on the 25 plan for months already. If you haven't, you gotta take it out, get it going, dust it off. Let's time. All right, booking fertilizer, booking canola seed, booking wheat seed. All sorts of things happening for next year. You got to get going. And that 2025 crop marketing plan getting, that's number four. Getting some targets out there and building a plan with, with margin and confidence for next year. Just, you're going to look at your crop plan, your numbers, flip that, get some sales done as well. And I know it might feel early for some of you, but there's good carry in these markets, folks. We've had some rallies. Price outlooks, outlook still bearish, but price in between has rallied a little bit. Again, some of you are staring down $9 hard red for next fall. $8 hard red. Nine dollar hard red. I will find me a scenario where it's under $8 for hard red for next year across western Canada. Find me that scenario for fall of 2025. Why aren't you considering those sales? Right.
All right. In closing, if you found this episode useful, please share it with a friend, neighbor, colleague in your local ag community.
Also spread the word on the conference as well. I appreciate that. Again, I expect we're going to sell out. That's not a sales tactic. Um, it's just reality. Um, and so if you know someone that needs to be at that conference or you think they do, hey, let them know. And if you're an egg company, you're like, okay, Ryan's not inviting us as industry to the show or to the conference, but, you know, we still want to participate. Email me, reach out and hey, maybe we can, you can get some tickets for some of your customers or something like that. There's still a way. If you're an egg industry company that wants to participate in the conference, hey, just reach out and we'll see what we can do together. Of course, prices and strategies may change by the time we record and send this out. It's recorded usually Wednesdays for Friday release.
Stuff happens. Things change. If you want to be a guest on the show, send me an email as well or head to Ryan Denis, CA have a great weekend, folks. Have a great positive Friday.
I'm out.
