A Merry Christmas From What the Futures!

[00:00:00] Speaker A: Welcome into episode 57 of the what the Futures podcast. You've got Ryan and Wilhelmina with you today. Can you say good morning, everybody? Good morning. Good job. All right, so I'm not in studio here once again, usually hanging out in the UPL studio, but it is the holiday season and it's snowing outside. Is it? Oh, boy. Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast, your quick guide to better farming decisions. [00:00:39] Speaker B: Hey, folks, welcome into episode number 57 of the what the Futures podcast. Of course, recorded in the UPL studio. And the folks over at UPL want to wish you and your farm a very, very merry Christmas and a happy holiday season. I promised one quick little episode here before the end of the year. And all we're gonna do today is just review my predictions from. The predictions I made was like, January 16, 2024, I said Christmas Eve, the price of canola wheat, so on and so forth. In Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, will be this price Christmas Eve. [00:01:17] Speaker A: We'll talk about that. [00:01:18] Speaker B: We'll talk about a few other things I said 12 months ago in that podcast as well. You know, predictions, they're weird. They are. I'm trying to. I'm trying to think of what actual value comes out of some of that, and I don't know, we'll talk about it more in just a minute. I also recorded a little bit with my kids. I don't know how Augustine, the editor, will incorporate that over the. The short episode here, but we did try a few things with Willa and. And Finn jumped in at the last minute there. So we'll see where. Where that comes in, but we'll have some fun with it. So we got letters to Santa, we got those predictions, and you know, folks, at the end of the day, if you're hanging out with me in minute two of this podcast, it's just to wish you and your family a very merry Christmas from. From me and my family and the what the Futures podcast. [00:02:12] Speaker A: It. It's been a. [00:02:13] Speaker B: It's been a heck of a year. It's been a really fun year. You know, it. Maybe we'll do some. Some reflection a little bit more in January here on the year, but crop marketing, it wasn't. It wasn't easy in 2024. It never is easy. I don't think you disagree with that. It's never easy. But, you know, in 2024, we did. We saw a very traditional market pattern. And what I mean by that is trend down, which we all, you know, we knew. We had a good feeling that that was going to be the trend throughout 2024. And then we got those opportunities. We got the spring rally, we got the summer rally, you know, that August rally. We even had that harvest rally in the wheat market as well. We have those, you know, pretty standard rallies, I would say, pretty standard marketing conditions. Okay. But we're still, you know, as a farming community in western Canada, as farmers out there, you're still, you're trying to thaw out. We've been frozen here. Our crop marketing skills froze up after 2021. A little complacent in rallying markets as well, into 2022. And then there's been a lot of hope. Hope for prices to recover to past levels. And, you know, times are different now. Times have changed and your marketing plan. [00:03:44] Speaker A: Needs to adjust with that. [00:03:46] Speaker B: Alrighty. So from our family to your family, we wish you a very, very merry Christmas. And let's get into some of these letters. [00:03:56] Speaker A: So I've got Willamina here with me this morning. Willa, how old are you? Four. Good job. If you're watching on YouTube, Willa had all four fingers out there. And so Christmas time is coming. [00:04:07] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:04:08] Speaker A: How many sleeps? One more sleep after this one. [00:04:13] Speaker C: Hey, Christmas Eve. [00:04:16] Speaker A: So, Willa, I asked farmers to send in their Christmas letters to Santa. Okay. Now it'd be a farmer. It could be a farmer like grandpa or papaya. But I got these Christmas letters that came in and, and I wanted to read a couple of them. But before, before I do, I would like to hear what you asked Santa for Christmas. [00:04:40] Speaker C: So I asked him for a robo car. [00:04:44] Speaker A: Oh, a robo car. [00:04:46] Speaker C: And I asked him for a train set. [00:04:49] Speaker A: A train set? Really? Okay. And what are you working on right now? [00:04:55] Speaker C: I'm Queenie. Gingerbread house. [00:04:57] Speaker A: A gingerbread house live on the show. Wow. [00:05:00] Speaker C: Thank you. [00:05:00] Speaker A: You're doing a great job. [00:05:02] Speaker C: It's really hard to get the icing out as a fast warmer. [00:05:05] Speaker A: Yeah, the icing is going to be a little bit tricky here. [00:05:07] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:05:08] Speaker A: Today. But we'll, we'll figure it out. We've got instructions. [00:05:12] Speaker C: We got instructions. [00:05:13] Speaker A: Yeah, I got one that came in from Graham and Graham farms in Alberta. And the letter says, dear Santa, how are you? I Hope you and Mrs. Claus are very well. I've been very good this year. So I have some ideas for my Christmas presents this year. For the farm, I would like a 520 quad track. [00:05:35] Speaker C: Oh, that sounds good. [00:05:37] Speaker A: Graham would like cattle prices to stay high. And he's also looking for Santa to bring world peace. How's that sound? [00:05:49] Speaker C: That sounds good. [00:05:50] Speaker A: Yeah, I think, Graham, I appreciate you sending a letter in and I think what we're going to do is we're going to have Santa link up with our friends over at John Deere and see what they got on on tracks for you and get something lined up for you that way. So great letter from Graham. I got another one here that came in from Colin and Colin farms in a spot called Tramping Lake, Saskatchewan. So he also writes the same thing at the beginning this year for the farm I would like to have. And he says, I would love for Ryan to tell me when 1450 canola is going to hit so we can sell the last bit and maybe get in one of those vacations on a beach this winter. So Colin wants a vacation and he also wants to sell his canola for 1450 a bushel. All right. If Santa is really generous, I'd like 80 by 100 heated shop with semi length pit would be awesome. Or just some what the future's hats for the kids. All right, Colin, that's a great letter. Thanks for sending that in. What do you think of Colin's letter, Willa? Love it, Love it. Yeah, I think we got to get him one of those vacations. Hey, beach vacation. Okay, so I got a couple more letters that came in. This one came in from Crystal. She farms in Hilda, Alberta and she says that she would like the barn rewired and completely cleaned out. Interesting. Hey, she must have animals. She wants a new to me air cart for my Morris drill and a new chicken coop. Oh, and a new dump trailer to tag behind my spray water tankers. Chicken coop. She wants a chicken coop as well. Who else wants a chicken coop for Christmas? [00:07:41] Speaker C: We want one. You see what the next letter. [00:07:46] Speaker A: All right, so this last letter I have or second last one here, this one came from, his name is Leo and he's five. So he's just a little bit older than you are and his farm is in unity. [00:08:00] Speaker C: Is he bigger than me? [00:08:01] Speaker A: Well, probably a little bit bigger. He's a little bit older than you. So he's asking Santa so he would like a tractor with tracks. So that's two letters now with tracks. We're definitely going to have to get Santa and John Deere hooked up here. So he would like a tractor with tracks. He would like cheaper seeds to plant on his farm. He's looking for a new trailer for our sprayer and he would like more rest for daddy and he writes. Think that's all. Thank you. What do you think of Leo's Christmas list to Santa. Yeah, I like that. He wants more rest for daddy as well. That's nice. So I had a couple other housekeeping things to get through today. So, Willa, thank you so much for joining me so far. Want to hang out for a little bit longer? Yeah. Okay. So we Back in January, I made some predictions, I made some guesses. Back in mid January, I was at the Manitoba Egg Days and I made episode of predictions for 2024. I think my Captain obvious prediction was that we would have volatile weather. And you know, if you thought about that in June, late June wasn't a big deal. We weren't seeing that. But all of a sudden July hit and a volatile weather continued. This isn't a predictions episode. Predictions are, you'll see in a second. It's kind of ridiculous here. A lot can change. But you'll see how far off I am on, on some of mine. But I did say that so the weather would be volatile. And I think my, I, I mentioned one of my bold, my bold prediction was there would be a insurance for grain contracts, which is not quite there. Well, it is there now starting in January, but it wasn't there in 2024 like I thought. So anyways, on that episode, I, here's. [00:09:57] Speaker B: What I A couple things that I'm. [00:09:59] Speaker A: Going to pull away from that. So I said that farmers would average, you know, 13.50 on canola when they were done their crop marketing. That's where they would average. Now, I believe most of you are doing a little bit better than that, but it's not, it's unfortunately not that far off. My bottom of the market, I said would be 12 bucks. And certainly we have hit that and that level has held. Anyways, I thought that was kind of interesting. But on I, I in that episode, I said in Saskatoon, I'm going to use the Vitera. You can add a little more. If you're G3 location, you can add a bit more to it. But said I'd use Vitera or I said I'd use Saskatoon. So I'll just use Vicera, the big facility there. And so here I said on Christmas Eve, which we're recording the day before, I said the price of Canola would be 1290 for January delivery. Okay. The price of canola delivered to Saskatoon Vitara, Saskatoon, right now 1281. So, you know, for 11 months, 11 and a half months in advance. That's a little bit sad that I was that close. But there we are. All right. So pretty darn close on that one for wheat. I Said the price of wheat would be 765 and for January delivery in Saskatoon it's currently 780 on the posted bid. Now you know I don't think anyone's selling weed at 780 but you know I didn't say, I just said what it would be posted out. [00:11:31] Speaker B: Right. [00:11:32] Speaker A: I start to fall off the rails though. So I'm pretty good on canola, very good on canola, pretty good on my wheat prediction. But it gets, I fall off the rails here. So I said the price of oats would be $5 in Yorkton. I didn't actually check to see that but I, it's not that it's what four, maybe 460, 470, something like that. So I'm definitely off on my oats and then it gets much worse. Yellow peas I said would be 825. They're currently 1033. I did not believe that India would hang out hang on as long as they have. And I, if you remember that episode I was not friendly towards yellow peas at all or even green peas. My biggest miss as I said green peas would be nine bucks for January delivery and let's double it, let's say there, let's call it 18. So a full 100% miss in the green pea market. And that's why you know I go back to some of these predictions predictions and they're silly and a little bit crazy at times and I think for January I'm not going to do a predictions episode because I, well maybe I'll talk about some type of predictions but instead I'm going to make a tweak because in the episode that I recorded in front of that x9 combine in, in Brandon I said a couple things about you know, capturing from a marketing perspective to be ready to capture margin, you know, in, in your wheat marketing your wheat and you know when profitable sell and I said something about you got to be Johnny on the spot or something like that when it comes to marketing wheat because we are in a downtrend and we obviously have been and are right and so like that is not very specific advice but in May when the wheat market in early June when the wheat market was alive and you know, flourishing like we had farms here that were locking in futures first during that time that have just started to price basis, you know what that wheat is priced at, it's nine and a half dollars a bushel. There's going to be some ten dollar weed out there as well. Basis continues to improve people, farms are locked in Futures first and weighted on basis there's going to be ten dollar wheat out there and there was ten dollars wheat way back, but there's going to be ten dollar wheat, you know, from summer forward here. All right, so anyways, not gonna do, not gonna do a big predictions episode, but instead I'm gonna dial it down to advice and how to steer that marketing plan here. That's going to be my Christmas gift to those listening. And I hope that doesn't sound as arrogant as it sounded coming out of my mouth, but I'm going to try to dial in that crop marketing plan and give you some real advice here for 2025. Because at the end of the day, predictions, yeah, sure, getting close on the Canola, whatever, but that didn't, did that help you, right? Did you listen to that episode and say, oh, this guy's, you know, telling me Canola is going to be 1290 in December. I'm going to take action. I, I doubt it. Right. I don't think so. I wouldn't have. So instead I'm going to try to just give you more actionable advice on your crop marketing plan and we'll throw some couple of different predictions in there that align with that. But just doing a predictions episode just doesn't make a, doesn't make a lot of. It's okay for content, but it doesn't help from, you know, like, look how far I, I was off on green peas. You know what, what help is that? So anyways, we're gonna do some, something different here in 2025, in the middle of January. We'll, we'll dial in that crop marketing plan. Whoa, buddy. That's pure sugar, my man. Hey, you're gonna be wired. The gingerbread episode Christmas episode coming at you. We are full on in the gingerbread episode Christmas letters. I'm gonna send a little gift package over to Leo in Unity. I've got some kids T shirts left from the conference, so I'm gonna get those over to Leo. Thank you for sending in the letters. And Graham, sorry, Denny, I have a problem back here. [00:15:59] Speaker C: Sorry. Happy chaos. Backyard. [00:16:02] Speaker A: All right, so Graham, we're gonna get a little package over to you as well. So thanks everyone for submitting your letters. Also Chris, you were a drumheller. You went up the dinosaur and took a selfie. We're gonna get something over to you as well. That's Chris. Can't remember where you farmed, Chris, but I thought you were in like northeast Saskatchewan. Anyways, you were in Drumheller. We'll get you a little conference. Pardon me? A little what? The futures package here as well. What else do we have? [00:16:29] Speaker B: Oh, yeah. [00:16:29] Speaker A: Lunchbox crew. You can join the lunchbox. We close that off at midnight Christmas Eve. And if you want conference tickets For Moose John 2025, they are 8.99 until until midnight Christmas Eve as well. After that, the price goes to 1199. All right, folks. From my family chaotically building a gingerbread house. We wish you a very merry Christmas. [00:16:56] Speaker C: Merry Christmas. [00:16:57] Speaker A: Happy New Year. [00:16:58] Speaker C: Happy New Year. [00:16:59] Speaker A: All the best in 2025. [00:17:04] Speaker C: Need this cuckoo guy to get out here, Finley. I'm turning off the show. Bye, folks. [00:17:12] Speaker A: All right, folks, all the best in 2025. I will be back with an episode. I think the Friday might be January 10th. That's when you'll get a fresh what? The futures episode from me. So thanks for bearing with us here, folks, again. Merry Christmas and we'll see you in 2025.