Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Brian Como with Ireland. Como Lafoy joins me this week. Of course, Brian, an analyst out of Winnipeg, Manitoba. Today we're going to talk about seeding delays in Western Canada. Could it have any positive impact? Is it impacting Canola? Today we're also going to talk about U.S. growing conditions. Is it going to get worse? Will it rally markets further? What can we look at for spring wheat? That and so much more. Episode 123 coming at you right now.
Hey folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast, your quick guide to better farming decisions.
All right, folks, welcome into episode 123 of the what the Futures podcast. Of course, I'm your host, Ryan Denis. Thank you for joining us this week. Of course, each and every episode recorded in the UPL studio. And when I think about nitrogen use efficiency, I think about a product like Wave. All right, Wave is a bio stimulant phenomenal product that we actually use on our farm as well here in 2025. And we have it in the plans here for 2026. Yeah. If you want to learn more about Wave, check it out. Is a, it is a easy to use product. It's consistent in its performance and it helps plants manage stress. All right. And again, improve that nitrogen use efficiency. Reach out to your local retail or UPL rep to get more information. All right, folks, we had Josh Linville on Cup of Coffee earlier this week. If you want to hear all things fertilizer. What can we anticipate fertilizer prices to do this summer? What are some of the key factors that could lead to higher or lower prices? Go and check that out. Of course, it's on the YouTube channel or wherever you get your podcast. And while you're there, why don't you do me a favor and hit that subscribe button or join the the email list. If you're not a YouTuber going and you prefer to read stuff, go check out the email. Ryandini Ca There's a button for it says click here to get on the email list. I put in usually a couple of creative memes in there and some crop marketing tips. All right?
Now as of this, as of recording, the farm is around 3% planted. It is May 20 and the one thing is, as I said here is I always worry about safety and I always worry about what is involved when you need to take a large heavy piece of equipment and move it out of a spot.
For all of you out there that are working in the muck, farming is already a dangerous occupation. All of you working in the muck Stay safe out there. If you can pause and just think through the, the exercise that you're doing, the, the task that you're doing in your head, just kind of run through it quick before you, before you attempt it and just, you know, get to that finish line in a safe way. You're, you're going to be putting in longer hours. I know farms are increasing their, their days. You know, that means less sleep, stay caffeinated, take a break whenever you can. Remember, getting your home safe at the end of the day is, is the most important, very important to get the crop in. But we need you at the end of the day to be home. So do it as safe as you can. Get the crop in and get things done. We're reaching a critical, a critical mass here, especially on the farms in northeast Saskatchewan, portions of northern Alberta as well. We are a rain event away from not being able to utilize our tools and equipment to the best of our ability. We're at the point here where one more rain event means that we have to go and figure out a different way to get this crop in the ground.
And so we started doing a little bit of homework here on if we can't get our equipment across the land, what could we do? Of course, many farms float crops on. That is definitely the angle that we're looking at here. But we are a rain event, a moisture event away from some further delays. Our confidence is still very, very high with the long range forecast.
Our confidence is high, our spirit is there.
The guys are doing what they can to get the crop in.
But there's a portion of acres here in the prairies that are one more moisture event. And, and that percentage of crop planted in June just goes up significantly. All right. I don't necessarily think that this translates to higher markets, you know, for crop prices, but I'll let Brian talk, sock his way through. Brian Como with ICL is going to join us here in just a minute and cover some of that off. So yeah, we'll, we'll do a quick positive moment. We will get to Brian. Nice long, longer conversation. Went through lots of different topics with Brian this week. And so a must listen for those that are crop marketing right now. And then of course, eating your veggies is coming at you here as well later on in this show. All right, folks, pause a moment for this week. The drive and the determination, you know, on the farm and the optimism as well, like, don't, don't get me wrong, you know, when you are like 3% planted on May 20, like the stress level has, has escalated, but you know, just the, the fact that the guys are just, you know, determined and, you know, we, we are assessing and analyzing and trying to figure out, you know, Plan B and Plan C, but Plan A is still very much in focus. And yeah, their determination and actually the goals that they've, they've set up here is just really, really, really encouraging and positive for them. So Mother Nature cooperates. We're in good shape. I don't know, I just think you can get down on yourself a little bit. But as of May 20, we're staying optimistic, at least in, in the RM of St. Louis, Saskatchewan. All right. I talked to a few of the neighbors as well the last couple days, just again, trying to figure out, you know, Plan B. They're also figuring out Plan B. So just collaborating to say, okay, what are you guys thinking? Like everybody, very, very optimistic, and that's great. Yeah. On the home front here, we've got, you know, kids in swimming lessons right now. Willa just finished her swimming lessons and has made great, great strides in the water. So that was a very positive moment for us this week here as well. I can't remember if I talked about kindergarten, but we have a very excited kindergartner starting in, in September here. So anyways. All right, folks, let's get into it here with, with Brian Como. We're going to talk through many different topics. Let's get into that next.
All right, folks, I've got Brian Como here with Ireland Como Lafoy joining me once again. Brian, it's the first time that we, that we actually record something since you took over a cup of coffee last month. How, how was that experience for you?
[00:07:00] Speaker B: Hey, that was great. I mean, you know, it's a little, a little nervous stepping into somebody else's shoes, but, but it was fun. I, I enjoyed the stress.
[00:07:09] Speaker A: You did awesome. Live stuff always has little wrinkles in it. Right. But it's, it's exciting. You did a great job and big thanks to you. Big thanks to Sarah Koshay as well from Trigger Game for, for jumping on that second week. So I certainly appreciate it. And I know that the farmers did, too, because our numbers popped. I don't know what you were cooking up there, Brian, but our numbers popped. You must see. Must brew at least a good cup of coffee or something because it was great to see.
[00:07:38] Speaker B: Thank you.
[00:07:40] Speaker A: All right, so, Brian, you guys obviously have farms across the prairie provinces all over the, all over the place, but you also have farms like my farm in the northern part of Saskatchewan that is facing some delayed seating conditions here. Can you just get us up to speed? You know, what are you kind of hearing out there? What are you expecting over the next week or so? Any implications to markets that you could
[00:08:07] Speaker B: think of last week or the week before the long weekend? You know, there was some concern about delays in a lot of areas. I was probably trying to calm, calm down, calm some folks down and say, hey, look, it's still early. It's May. You know, no need to panic. I think the long weekend coming early this year, you know, kind of provided that reason to get, you know, a little bit, you know, antsy. Right. You're, you know, a lot of, A lot of folks use the, the May long weekend as the, as the gauge as to how much they should have done by that point in time and things like that.
Yeah, so that came early. We're coming into the week after May long, which is, you know, kind of traditionally what we're seeing. But we're, you know, planting progress is super slow in, in all areas of the prairies that, you know, like, some areas are better than others. You know, southern Alberta still is, still is above the low year, I suppose, but, but everywhere, yeah, everywhere is just delayed, including, you know, Manitoba and, and all those areas. I would say the yellow headquarter of Alberta, Saskatchewan continues to see rain and even snow. I think there was last week.
[00:09:15] Speaker A: There was.
[00:09:16] Speaker B: So I think there's. There's definitely some concern.
I do think that we are seeing some of that in the Canola market. Like, it's pretty much the only market that is really Canadian focused. Right. Like, you could say spring wheat to some degree, but I think spring wheat has its own things going on being correlated with, with the winter wheats. But I do think we're seeing, you know, Canola is trading, trading near highs or at least the November is trading near recent highs. And I think that the weather is part of the reason for that.
[00:09:44] Speaker A: I've kind of got that kitchen window bias because, you know, our farm here, we got, we got rolling, so we're 1.4% planted or seeded. We got rolling here yesterday when we should have waited one more day, but multiple machines stuck all day yesterday, like just a mess trying to figure out where to go and how to. How to go about it. Lunchbox crew guys were sending their, their pictures with the snow. So, yeah, certainly raised race tensions out there.
Canola skyrocketed yesterday. We're recording this on Wednesday. Tuesday it played catch up to some of the US Markets. Now we're at the higher end of the range here, Brian. You feel like if we get any further delay that Canola could have a bit more spark to it, to the upside yet or do you think that this is kind of it?
[00:10:36] Speaker B: I think there's three factors with Canola. I think the weather is, is one of them for sure.
We also saw last week in the, in the COPA or the Canadian Oilseed Processors association, we saw a huge crush number come out of copa at like 286,000 tons. I think it was somewhere in that range. That's a record. That's large. It, it beat. It beat the previous record by like 61,000 tons or something or. Yeah, I put it in, I put it in my YouTube video yesterday. But it was like some crazy number of, of B trains. If you kind of put it down to B trains, I think it was like 600B trains worth of Canola was crushed more than the previous record.
So just huge. That's thanks to the crush plants that were, we were kind of waiting to get online. Like the Regina crush plant for that Cargill has and then the LDC crush plant in Yorkton. So we're firing on all cylinders now. The, you know, the total crush capacity is almost 16 million and you could round it up to 16 million. It's like 15, 95 or something like that.
[00:11:37] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:11:38] Speaker B: Yep. So and then we're, you know that last week was 93% of capacity, which is actually quite high. Like generally we are somewhere around 88% or something like that. So just a phenomenal week of crush last week. I think that's supporting Canola as well.
And then there's kind of the third, you know, the third party or the secondary effects on the soybean market because of the Trump and G positivity that came out last week as well.
[00:12:03] Speaker A: Sure.
[00:12:03] Speaker B: So, you know, lots of, lots of good things going on for Canola right now. It still does ebb and flow, but it does seem to be making, you know, higher highs and, and then higher lows. So that's still a good looking, good looking market.
[00:12:17] Speaker A: Speaking of that crush plant in Regina, have you heard at all like how it's going? Like do they are they at the point where things are, are flowing quite nicely now? They got all the, the bugs worked out, things like that. Have you heard any update at a Regina?
[00:12:34] Speaker B: Not firsthand. I mean, you know, when you ask the folks that work there, they're usually pretty, you know, positive about what they say about the, about, about it. So. But I think that, I think the proof is in the numbers, right? So, you know, the crush that we saw yesterday, like, I don't know, there obviously wasn't any bugs in the system, you know, in the pre. In the previous week or that reporting week. The only thing I could say maybe is that, you know, the, the week prior to this record was, was really, who knows, maybe there was some like, reporting delays and really we should be averaging out the two weeks. I don't know. But, but I think it's positive either way. I think, you know, it's.
I think the only thing that could really deter crush now is the farmer ability to deliver.
You know, once in May and June when you're seeding and spraying, you don't, you don't want to be, you don't want to be delivering. You don't want to be worrying about delivery. And that can, that can get the, the inventories in the crush plants or even in the elevators lower. And then, you know, the stats, you know, crush numbers and stuff like that can fade.
[00:13:41] Speaker A: Speaking of that window for, for delivery, have you, have you seen any, like, I saw some mace premiums here maybe last week or the week before. Have you checked in. It's early in the week. Have you checked in on anything this week? Any premiums out there for delivery in May or June?
[00:13:58] Speaker B: Some premiums. I think, you know, there's more premiums for that particular period than there is July forward, kind of. Obviously August is usually a slow month anyway, so. Yeah, and they're not throwing out a whole lot of premiums for new crop yet either. But the premiums that we would normally see in a normal year are kind of muted. I think there is a, you know, we produced a lot of canola last year. Even the spreads between the July and November kind of suggest that there isn't any panic to, to access supply. So I think the premiums are, are just there to kind of, you know, tip over the scales a little bit to get, to get farmers to sell if they have, if they have, you know, kind of targets.
[00:14:36] Speaker A: Fair enough.
So just one last one here on, on planting pace for the Canadian prairies. I just threw this into Grok as we were, as we were chatting. It came back with 2022 as the, as the. As a comparable or a comparison year for the slope planting pace here. So it says Manitoba 40% seeded as of May 31 in 2022 and Saskatchewan 76% seeded as of May 31. I'm looking at the canola chart from NAV of 2022. Canola chart we have a market spike in, in April that year, another one May 17th. And then of course, we all know in 2022, we. We unwound some very high positions. I'm not saying these markets are the same, but I thought that was. Was interesting. I keep looking back at comparable years and even when I look at. And we'll talk US Crop conditions in a second, just seeing like, what did the markets do when we saw something similar? I don't know what I was doing in 2022, but I don't remember the slow planting pace of 2022. Brian, do you remember that year?
[00:15:43] Speaker B: I do. It was slow. And I mean, this year right now is slower. You know, as far as all of Alberta goes, right now we're kind of on par with 2022 as a Alberta as a whole. It's the areas like, like we were talking about the, you know, I guess what they would call like northeast or northwest Alberta, which would kind of be from Edmonton to, you know, vermilion in that area. That's where the big delays are. Also the peace, the Peace river. Those were areas in 2022 that, that were, you know, very, very slow.
The one thing about comparing analog years is to be aware of is that 2022 was the year that Russia invaded Ukraine.
And the market, the market went crazy on a lot of different fronts in that time period as well.
And so, yeah, I mean, seasonally, this is the time of year where we tend to see the highs, you know, in markets, you know, prior to, prior to harvest. So there. And there's always some reason for that, which is, you know, unknowns around planting yield.
This year we have, you know, some geopolitics sprinkled in, although that seems to be becoming more calm, but.
[00:17:00] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, yeah, definitely. Or desensitized or something.
[00:17:04] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, exactly.
[00:17:05] Speaker A: No fair. Actually, I want to maybe before us growing conditions. Let's switch to that real quick. But I put in my notes here, like, you know, as a, as an analyst, are you.
Are you marketing like differently in 2026 than you would normally? Or maybe that's not a fair question to ask. But the reason I want to sprinkle this in here is because of, you know, the. All the talk of, of how bullish commodities, you know, could be or should be or however you want to frame it. Do you kind of sit there and say, you know what, There, there is a. There's more at stake this year. There, there is more potential or, or, you know, upside than normal years. Like we're going to be a Bit more cautious or, or am I completely out to lunch? Or you're like, ryan, I kind of stick to my, stick to my, my roots, my guns, no matter what. And I have a plan regardless.
[00:18:02] Speaker B: Yeah, I would say we have a framework of a plan and then we kind of react depending on, on what's happening inside of that framework. So with Canola, you know, the new crop pushed up towards, you know, 750 the first time, we felt that that was an excellent place to layer off some risk whether or not the market was still, still bullish. Yeah. You know, in. The nice thing about Canola is that using, you know, risk management tools like options, things like that is getting, you know, more accessible. It's getting more, it's getting cheaper as far as, you know, because more people are using it. So we're utilizing that.
The problem, the hard part has been wheat because, you know, since wheat moved to the Myax as opposed to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, the options market is basically non existent. And the OTC providers that provide it are, you know, are pricing in that fact as well as, you know, extra, extra spread just to cover their risk. And so, so in those markets we've had to be a little bit more, you know, in tune with, you know, cash prices and exactly when to, to take some risk off.
[00:19:10] Speaker A: So yeah, fair.
[00:19:11] Speaker B: In the wheat markets, we probably were later than, than we normally would have been and maybe a little bit less aggressive because of course, you know, pricing ahead of harvest does have production production risk. Nobody, nobody likes buying out of a contract. And so we, we try to avoid that at all costs.
[00:19:30] Speaker A: Speaking of, of the price of wheat, Minneapolis wheat options or.
Yeah, Allison Thompson brought this up on the show a couple weeks back, but I got a quote for a put option through a line company the other day, and it was a dollar a bushel to do that.
[00:19:46] Speaker B: Canadian or us?
[00:19:48] Speaker A: That was Canadian.
[00:19:49] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:19:50] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, that was Canadian. But that took the fun out of it, Brian. I'm not gonna lie. It took the fun out of it.
[00:19:58] Speaker B: Yeah. You know what I think, and that's exactly the question you gotta ask is like, at some point do you just like if you're wrong, if you price and it's profitable, you know, you just gotta know yourself and say, well, if it goes up another buck a bushel, am I going to be upset with myself?
Um, you know, and a lot of, I think a lot of folks actually have more regret when the market moves higher than they do when it moves lower. And it's hard to explain that to some degree, but I think, you know, at a dollar Canadian you can, you can stomach some pretty big swings before, before it makes, makes a difference.
[00:20:36] Speaker A: That's what I thought too. I, I was like, well there's a lot of room here so I'll leave it alone for now. But on that point actually this morning, I know we, we tend to do this but like, you know, when markets go up, that's where I guess the emotion kind of, kind of comes in. Right. And, and as we're recording, I'm actually getting some messages here from a grower just comparing the high that we're at today because Canola is, you know, just below the, the highs here and average price that, that he sold at. And it's a conversation about the difference and strategy around, you know, how to narrow in that gap. It's a real thing, right. And it just, as we're recording it just, it's coming at me right now. So yeah, it's interesting. Now speaking of kind of strategies here and we'll move on to US conditions but we're at the higher end of the range that we've been in the last while. I guess maybe my one question is have Canola put options? Have they gotten more expensive in this rally? Are they less expensive or it's a premium less than what it's been.
Have you looked at any of those in the last week or so?
[00:21:43] Speaker B: There's a couple of different ways to look at it. It's one is the nominal value, right? Like so how much dollars per ton is do they cost? Right. The other way to look at it is how, how much do they cost as a percentage of the total of the total value of, of Canola? Another way to look at it yet is how much do they cost versus a, you know, the last call it year between the, you know, the low and the high, what percentage of your are you protecting there?
The metric that you can use, I guess as far as what denotes a cheap option or a low cost option versus high cost option is a lot of times the implied volatility metric will tell you that. You know, implied volatility during the initial parts of the Iran war shot up significantly. You know, they were, you know, shot up to about 26% or something like that. It's come back down to 20%. So the fact that we are making close to new highs and the implied volatility has dropped to those six points compared to the end of March when Canola kind of did make that big high on 9 March, using those risk management tools are A significantly lower cost because of the drop in implied volatility, but also because we are two months later in the year, you don't have to pay for as much time value.
[00:23:07] Speaker A: So. Right.
[00:23:07] Speaker B: Yeah. I still think that hedging canola using put options is a, is a, is a very good idea. Particularly as we move towards the end of May here when production risk is a real thing.
[00:23:20] Speaker A: I'm French, right, Brian. So like I'm a big emotion guy. I'm going to throw the word love with the puts here. Like I love, I love the Canola puts right now. The reason is that this is an example from this last week or so, but pretty normal situation I would say. But you know, canola margin and your, your wheat margin, yes, the wheat margin has improved from where it was.
But still for many that canola margin has to just kind of come over and cover off some of the wheat margin. Like it's still, it has to for, for many. And so it's very important. You can't, you can't screw up the canola marketing because it, it's offsetting some of the other crops. Right.
And so you know, this farm at the comfort level, percent sold wise physical, you know, they're seeding it's busy crop, you know, conditions aren't quite ideal but yet that price is so important that 750, $760 a ton is just so important the put and if, if the cash price, if futures go up, that's okay, they can price out those futures at the higher value. If the market goes down, they are protected. I love puts right now. I just, I think they're depending on your risk on your farm. A no brainer for those that want to make sure that they don't sell for below these values. So there we go.
[00:24:37] Speaker B: I mirror your, your feelings about it.
Some of our clients are sold up to their crop insurance levels using, using puts. And when I say sold I just mean risk covered because you don't have to.
[00:24:48] Speaker A: Not physically. Sold.
[00:24:49] Speaker B: Not physically. Exactly. And yeah, and I mean, you know, once the crop emerges and you feel good about it, you can take some of those hedges off and maybe even you know, if the, if the crop, you know, starts flowering or whatever and you feel more confident you can take some of them off. Like you don't, it's not at all or nothing thing.
[00:25:07] Speaker A: It's. Yeah, exactly.
[00:25:09] Speaker B: Managing risk.
[00:25:10] Speaker A: Yeah. Yeah, perfect. All right, let's, let's move over to wheat now. And as of recording this, I've got Casey wheat down about oh 7 cents here this morning. Chicago wheat's down 10 cents. Minneapolis wheat. So we're below the highs here from last week.
Minneapolis down about a nickel here as well. Crop conditions in the US came in lower, 1% lower in the good to excellent category. Anything around those crop conditions. Brian, do you feel we have more to feed the bull here? What do you see in the U.S.
[00:25:42] Speaker B: uSDA hasn't started reporting harvest progress yet, but we probably will have, you know, once they do probably have a harvest percentage from Texas specifically and even maybe from Oklahoma. Kansas may not have started yet, which is probably why the USDA isn't reporting it. But I mean, the yield is probably set here right. Like it's, it is going to be what it's going to be. And you know what's interesting is there was a wheat tour that went through Kansas recently. They, they assessed the yield at 38, I don't know, round 38 and a half or something like that per acre. And the USDA in their most recent WASDE or crop production report rated it at 37. So the crop tour rated it higher than the USDA did, which is kind of backwards. Usually it's the opposite where that happens. The USDA is relatively delayed in moving yields lower. So part of me feels like, you know, that this market is that the, the drought is getting baked in at least for the, for the springtime. The only thing I think that could, that could change that is that the drought isn't widespread. And I mean the SRW crop in the, in the eastern parts of the, of the US Are probably still a little bit better off. But you know, the spring wheat side, like, you know, the Montana crop ratings are falling now and that's spring country. And a lot of it, sure, a lot of it is Durham and things like that. But yeah, you know, we could, not that. I'm saying it's a foregone conclusion, but if we start to see production issues in, in the dark northern spring areas of the US or even in Canada, that could, that could have an effect as well, similar to, I don't know if you remember back to 2017, maybe I'm dating myself now, but that was the year that there was a big spring wheat drought where the northern parts of the US And Canada were void of moisture and that helped rally wheat markets as well.
[00:27:41] Speaker A: Yeah, when I look at the long range forecast, it's really, really interesting to see what could be coming here for June and July. And I'm with you. So I think you have the biggest like correction of yield and so now there could be a little bit of tweaking with quality or abandoned acres a little bit. I don't think it'd be big. You know, you chop it down by that much once, like, I don't know, I don't expect to see another chop down like that again. I think it's there. So we've rallied on that news and it's, it's kind of done. And now all of a sudden this week I'm hearing wheat is a global crop. Remember, wheat is a global crop. They have it in Australia, they have it in Argentina. You know, it's everywhere. So everybody settled down. But you know, I, I look at what's going on in the northern plains, I think in western Canada as well. Unfortunately we are going to have some stress points of, of dryness. I hope not. But it seems like it could be there and then, and then, you know, Australia, it's too early to get too excited and ramped up to rally spring wheat prices today. But there's a few things brewing here that could lead to some higher prices. It just may not be the Kansas crop anymore. The winter wheat crop, I should say. Anymore.
[00:28:58] Speaker B: Yeah, well actually the, you know, some positivity in the China US meeting was that, you know, the 17 billion in agriculture products, which I mean is still lower than it was at its peak. But you know, there, there was wheat mentioned in there and if the US wheat crop is going to be significantly lower, not only because of yield but because of acres and if China is going to, you know, honor a commitment due just for diplomatic reasons, that's going to create some demand from the U.S.
wheat is a global crop. But let's be honest, traders focus more on the US the futures markets are domiciled in the US A lot of traders don't look past the continental US borders as far as market signals. So the US story is important and it is more important than global in a lot of ways. Sometimes when the markets go down, you know that you're right, the analysts, even me, I'll say, you know, well, global pressure, you know, like there's. But the US is always a high priced island, right? It's always the kind of the seller of last resort. But this year they're just not going to have as much as much there. And if we do see an increase or the US does see an increase in demand from China like they're, you know, that could shrink the balance sheet pretty significantly in the U.S. now, I
[00:30:12] Speaker A: don't want to get everybody bowled up, but Brian referenced 2017 and so we start January of 2017. We start at 5:40, we'll call it on the, on the spring wheat chart. And then it takes until May 31st. May 31st, we're trading at 570. So we trade basically that sideways range all of 2017.
And then for some darn reason on June 1st, the market just kind of wakes up to 571.
It rallies in the eights, the low eights. So just over $2 or $2.50 a bushel and finds its peak on July 3rd. So I didn't look past that. I guess I could look a little bit further, but yeah, so again, not to get everybody bowled up, but just, you know, the spring wheat rally can activate if it is there in the cards, it can activate a little bit later. So there you go. All right, Brian. Well, we kept you overtime already today, buddy.
Anything else before I let you go? It looks like China's coming in buying a bit more barley from us. I got a hot offer here, 575 off the combine in north central Alberta I guess we'll call it.
Anything else catching your attention here this week?
[00:31:33] Speaker B: I mean, I love that you mentioned barley.
Our exports of barley this year have just been off the charts. It's been amazing. I think that's a really good bright spot in the western Canadian agriculture sector. So yeah, I hope that continues. I think barley acres are going to be lower this year. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong, but we probably will see a reduction in production just on the yield coming back to mean or back to average or somewhere closer to average. So could be, could be if we continue to see exports like this, we could continue to see good bids for, for barley for sure you have a
[00:32:08] Speaker A: chance to, to lock in some decent values here. And I'm, I'm a bit more aggressive. Out of all my crops, I have more barley sold, feed barley sold. Than anything else. But yeah, it is, it is nice to see. We, we did see a575 a few weeks ago, but it's nice to see it back. Lastly, acreage changes. Like I, I was even a part of a conversation yesterday with the prairie farmer. Just it's just the cereals basket. That's all that I've really. I heard a little bit more canola with the delayed planting in the north. I heard a bit more canola maybe going in, but farms that were plant planting oats, barley, wheat, they've been juggling and maybe taking those oats out or reducing that.
Anything in your conversations, I Know, it's super late to talk acreage, but the
[00:32:55] Speaker B: planting delays always raise the raise the issue of acres. And generally if there is delays, you tend to see more cereals because they can, you know, they mature earlier. Right. So particularly in areas that are prone to frost, you know, in September, let's say, like that could be, there could be guys who are, who are thinking about reducing canola acres as a result. And you know, I think at this point, the 20th of May, you know, that's probably not happening. But if we get into the 30th of May and there's still no canola on the ground like that, that might, that might swing something. So that's less than two weeks away, right?
[00:33:34] Speaker A: So our, our, our farm, we figure like, if we got another inch of rain, like at any point in the next two weeks, like, we are like, we are floating the crop on. Like we're just, we're a moisture event away from just a brutal, brutal 20, 26 here. So the crew is going hard right now trying to get things sorted out. And, and the other thing too is the markets. You know, we, in one sense, you know, farmers will get picked on for all these fancy equipment and all this equipment they have. And then in the, the other sense, in the other comment, you know, markets are like, well, we're not going to rally because the farmers can get it done. They got all the stuff, they got all the equipment. They could do it as, you know, faster than ever. I'm like, come on guys, let's not pick on them then for having all this nice equipment because they're getting it done when it, when the time is, is here that they need to get it done. So anyways, yeah.
[00:34:30] Speaker B: Oh yeah. The dollars per hour that it costs to run equipment must be super high. But you know, the cost of not having it is probably even higher. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[00:34:39] Speaker A: All right, man. How could people check out your stuff? You guys are doing great work there at icl.
[00:34:45] Speaker B: Thank you. Probably our biggest public place to find us is on YouTube, which is YouTube. Anadianagmarkets.
[00:34:53] Speaker A: Awesome. Good stuff, man. And you still running a little free trial as well? I saw a 10 day free trial the other day. Is that still out there?
[00:35:01] Speaker B: It is still out there.
[00:35:03] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:35:03] Speaker B: In most of our videos we link it in the description. Sometimes I forget. But if you go back through the catalog, you'll probably find it there somewhere. And which, that's a good reminder. I'll put it in my video today.
[00:35:15] Speaker A: Awesome. And I will try to remember to link it in the comments section of this video as well. So awesome. Brian.
[00:35:21] Speaker B: Thanks, Ryan.
[00:35:22] Speaker A: Appreciate your time. Have a good rest of your week.
[00:35:24] Speaker B: You bet.
[00:35:28] Speaker A: All right, big thanks to Brian once again for stepping in and hosting a cup of coffee there back in, in late April. He does a great job on, on his channel as well. And I highly recommend if you're looking for, for just a really nice audio end of the day, I want an update here in the afternoon markets are closed. His channel does a great job of that. So that and many other things. We went through all sorts of stuff in that conversation. They do good work over there. Of course. Do need to give a shout out here to our show sponsor, John Deere. You know, I know when you guys think about John Deere, you think about green paint, which. How can you not. I took my little guy, Finn. We went to the dealership, had to get some, some parts, had to get some oil as well, some oil filters, you know, went and, and did the old parts run. And as Finn gets older, he's over three now. His excitement in that store is just, honestly, I think it's better than going to Disneyland for him at, at that age. One of the differences this time around in the dealership is that he went and explored it a little bit on his own.
I didn't abandon my child in the dealership. But he said, dad, can I go see that? Go for it, buddy.
As a three year old, they stay close to mom and dad, right? He went and I could just hear him. I could just hear him. He'd go around the corner and it just, wow, look at that.
And so he just went through it and then of course he pointed out everything he already had. I have that, I have that. I've got that. And then when he didn't have something, oh, dad, that's the one. We don't have that one. Right. And so, so yeah, he's, that was a great, great time. We have to do it regularly because it is that much fun, his winning, his winning item that he, he's decided he's going to save his money because we're doing chores and allowance. All right. You might think that 3 is, is too young, but I tell you, he, he can empty the dishwasher as good as anybody. You know, at our home. He can help me bring the garbage bins out or the garbage out or whatever it is. Like there's chores. Mopping the floor. Phenomenal job mopping the floor. All right, so we're working on allowance. We're working on. And so he's saving up x9 combine, it's got two headers. That was very big deal for him that it had both headers in there and that it had tracks. It needed to have tracks on the front of the combine. That was a big deal as well. Now you guys think about green paint, which I get. Love it. Got my, oh, I got this hat there too while I was there. I think of, I think of John Deere operations center and I think of harvest profit. All right, John Deere operations Center. Number one tasks staying on the same page especially as the, as the crew is pushing these late hours and these big days. Where's central command? How can we figure out where everyone's at, what they're doing? John Deere operations Center, that is the spot. But then also while everyone is running the longest hours, getting the job done, markets are rallying just that peace of mind in harvest profit. To say how does this impact our financial picture right now? What is my percent sold? Should I be taking action? Why or why not? That's what we have going on in harvest profit. You can check all that out. Harvest profit.com deer cat for John Deere operations Center. And of course why don't you go. I know you're already going and having a cup of coffee at the dealership, but go and enjoy it like, like through the eyes of a three year old. All right, have fun with that. I'm just checking some, some market prices here. Like I mentioned with Brian, we've got that, that feed barley market kind of popping here once again.
You know, I'm recording. I've got canola down a couple bucks a ton here at the higher end of the range, which is a sell signal to me or at least a hedge signal.
I spent most of my morning just chatting with, with clients about, and farms about, you know, how important is this for you? And here's some tools that you can look at to hedge and protect yourself. Wheat markets continue to pull back here. We haven't as of recording, we're almost in the danger zone here. It's not, not quite, but it's getting close to a further pullback. We're 40 cents off the high, 50 cents off the high in Kansas wheat. Chicago wheat hanging in a little bit better. That chart actually looks, you know, kind of healthy overall. So we'll see. Maybe that'll do some of the heavy lifting. And like we talked about, maybe spring wheat finds its, its legs a little bit later on. But that chart looking in the short term here, at least a little bit toppy. We'll See it, it's not bad, but, yeah, off about 30, 35 cents from the highs there. All right, targets. Targets have been so effective. I'm going to make that number one in eating your veggies here for this week. So, yeah, speaking of eating your veggies here, talked a lot about tractor cap math the last couple of weeks and writing down some of these numbers as you are, you know, getting further and further planted and as we get further and further into the growing season, you know, markets can, can find reasons to pull back. When the unknowns become known, they can find reasons to pull back. I really like right now, you know, setting some targets up, especially on canola and wheat. Just putting numbers out there that, you know, maybe they're. They're numbers that you heard triggered and you said, oh, man, I wish I would have done something around that. Or, or maybe you're looking at the higher end of the range.
I know that we often, you know, we'll pick on targets, but I like having them, especially futures. First, targets. I think there's a reason here to lock in futures, at least target that level and leave some basis open for the demand side of this equation. All right, But I like targets. I like targeting some futures specifically and moving that kind of along.
The second thing I'd like to do, and it may be a little bit early for this, but we did do this in our risk management meeting here earlier in the week, is just, you know, continue to talk through for us.
You know, the unseated acre is becoming a bigger part of the conversation.
And so we are taking yield down a little bit. And you might sit here and say, Ryan, my, my seating window was phenomenal. Like, I'm, I'm done or close to done. I'm as normal as can be here. I'm good with conditions.
You're already assessing it yourself, right? You don't. It doesn't mean it's an assessment down. It could be an assessment higher. But I like doing in May when it sounds crazy to do it, but just a little bit of a yield projection update.
How am I faring here? Towards the end of May, did things go really well? Can I look at average or higher crops right now? You know, if I get good conditions moving forward, and if I am in an area that is struggling to get the crop in, should I start to reduce some acres or yield expectations just a little bit? I don't have to make drastic cuts just a little bit. All right, so I like that. For number two, just assessing your yield. In number three, I Can't harp on this enough, but I said it already. I'm just going to throw it in there, the Canola put.
Talk to your local line company about strategies around those put options.
Again, folks, if it goes to 800 bucks, that's great. You can sell it at 800. A put just protects your worst case scenario. So I'm going to put that as number three. Okay, folks, we're getting towards the end of the show. Of course, I've got the playlist on YouTube music what the Futures hashtag, plant 26.
And I'm going to put my song of the week. I'm going to go with the Macarena. All right, do you guys remember the macarena from the 90s? You know, you do the. I can't remember all the moves, but you could be in the tractor cab doing the Macarena. I think that would be a lot of fun. And the one I put in there is the version.
It's got a little spice to it, right? It's not, it's not like the boring Macarena. It's a fun one. And so I think it's a fun one anyway. But I'd like to see some tractor cab Macarenas going on. All right, so that's my song of the week. You can check out that playlist and my old ones all the way to 2021. They're all there. If you type it and it pops up. All right, and it's free.
It's got ads if you don't have an account, but you can go and snag it there. All right.
Okay, folks, if you want a futures update from me, ryanothefuturespodcast. Ca. That's my email. You just go and say, ryan, I wanna get added to the futures list. We still have room. You get canola, wheat, corn, soybeans, Canadian dollar, crude oil, just three times a day, Pop. There you go. I send you an example first so you know what you're kind of committing to.
But I have some capacity. I'm happy to share it with you there. If you found this episode useful, tell a friend, tell a neighbor, appreciate it. And of course, strategy can change. Things can change, prices can change by the time you listen to this. So have a good weekend. Stay safe, folks. For the what the futures podcast. My name is Ryan and. That's right, I'm out of here.
