Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Hey there, folks. Welcome to episode 50 of the what the Futures podcast. The last episode of season one, the Halloween episode. That's why I'm dressed as an octopus, thanks to my four year old. Hey, we're gonna reflect on season one just a little bit here. In the episode we got Chuck Penner with left field commodities. We're gonna talk about the Canola market and some of the risks out there for prairie farmers. We're also going to talk about pulses. Get everybody up to speed on lentils and yellow peas. And hey, why not talk about the conference in drum Heller? All right, folks, buckle up. Let's get after it. Episode number 50.
Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast where we break down complex market trends into simple, actionable advice. It's your quick guide to better farming decisions.
All right, folks, welcome into the episode here recorded in the UPL studio each and every week, of course, what the Futures is your weekly dose of clarity in the complex world of crop marketing. I am your host, Mr. Octopus/ Ryan Denny. I spent my career working with farmers across the prairie provinces, trying to have a little fun at times as well and giving guidance on crop marketing for the last, I don't know, 14ish years. So it's been a lot of fun and excited that the podcast turns one year old. We've got Chuck Penner joining me once again here as he does regularly. And you know, we're gonna talk, we're gonna get a little spicy on the Canola market in this episode, okay? Because. Because there's some stuff going on. There's lots of people with opinions, lots of different advice out there and I'm going to stick my neck out here just a little bit as well on what I think might be happening in this Canola market in the near future. We've got a couple things around the conference. Ticket prices have climbed now as of October 31st, and I've got a few little updates around that, of course, positive moments. And I'm going to put in my reflection here of season one. All right, and then of course we got a little bit of homework for you when it comes to the eating your veggie section. So let's get into it now. Episode 50 with Chuck Pinner.
All right, folks, let's welcome back Chuck Penner with left field commodities for episode number 50. Chuck, this is the last episode of season one. It's been quite the journey this year. Wow. It's the last one. So you're. You're the guy.
[00:02:40] Speaker B: Happy anniversary.
[00:02:41] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, thanks. Thank you. So much. A lot of reflection in this episode for me. I spent some time listening to the first couple episodes from last November and, you know, it's going to continue to get better. But yeah, the first ones are a little interesting, quality wise. So, yeah, it was good.
[00:02:58] Speaker B: Well, and how can it get better than, you know, you're dressed up for Halloween. I've got my pumpkin shirt on. So we're all set.
[00:03:04] Speaker A: Yeah, There you go. This was picked out at Dollarama the other day by my 4 year old, so I have to thank her for the great costume. And I get to wear this in public today, which we're recording. It's not quite Halloween yet, but I get to wear this out in public. And she asked if I would wear it on the drive into Irish class as well today. So, you know, if you're in Short park and you see this guy beside you, just. Yeah, watch out.
Oh, man, I do feel like a Jamaican octopus or something with the dreads here. So I gotta move them out of the. Out of the way.
[00:03:41] Speaker B: It's those dreads. Yep.
[00:03:42] Speaker A: Yeah. DJ octopus maybe is kind of the look I'm going for. But anyway, I've been asking everybody. So you're coming to the conference in Drumheller, which I really appreciate, Chuck, you making the journey from Winnipeg. I've been asking everybody, like, what's, what's your walk up song like when you, when you come up to present, like, what's going to get the crowd going for Chuck?
[00:04:03] Speaker B: I'm terrible at that kind of thing, Ryan. I mean, just before we got on this call, I was listening to some Steve Miller band, but I can't even name the songs that I was just listening to. So I'm afraid I'm pretty hopeless that way.
I thought you might. Do I have to come up with one?
[00:04:19] Speaker A: No, I will come up with one for you. But then you're at my mercy. Right. Of what I come up with. Well, that's fine. It won't be acdc because everybody wants ACDC so far. So. Yeah. Okay, so I'll find some old like gangster rap or something for you.
[00:04:34] Speaker B: Yeah, I'm afraid I can't help you with that.
[00:04:36] Speaker A: All right, so you're coming out to Drumheller. You're doing a little bit of a different spin on your presentation from what you normally do. Can you give us some Cole's notes on what you're going to talk about at the conference?
[00:04:49] Speaker B: Well, I'll try. So normally, you know, you get up there and you say, well, blah, blah, blah. This is what's going on in the canola market and you know, China, Japan, you know, Australia, you know, whatever, or lentils, and you talk about India, so on and so on. This is going to be a little bit more about, more of a how to type of a thing. And some ways it's based on some work that we've done. We've done a few things in the last little while and I would call them thought experiments where, you know, we've kind of wondered stuff and then we have all this data sitting there. So then we test it and we see whether it, it actually makes sense. So I'll give you just a quick example. One is this idea, you know, when you get into the summer and prices are going, you know, just chugging down and things like that, and then the grain buyers start to say, geez, you know, they're just going to keep going and it's, they're not coming back. So we decided to test that, you know, is that true or not? So we looked at prices, you know, when they, when they typically bottom out in the year and how often and how strongly and whatever they come back from those. And so we run that across all of the different crops that we cover, all the grains, the oil, seeds and special crops and that sort of thing. And there's some interesting results there. But I don't want to give away the, don't want to give away the answer right now.
[00:06:03] Speaker A: No, don't, don't keep, keep the secret stuff for the, for the conference.
[00:06:07] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, but so, so those kind of things. And so it's about using data to help improve decision making. And so, you know, you know, the title that I'm using is called what are the Odds? And so, for example, for that particular thought experiment, it's like, what are the odds that prices come off the lows or come off, you know, once they hit that normal seasonal low, what are the odds that they actually are going to turn higher again and again? It varies by crop and sometimes don't want to give away too much. But yeah, so it's a little bit about some of the stuff that the data reveals about how markets move. They don't always move that way, but you know, what's their tendency, how often some of those kind of things. So yeah, we'll look at, we'll look at how data can be used to provide a little more sanity or a little more rational thought in terms of where markets might be going.
[00:07:03] Speaker A: Awesome.
[00:07:03] Speaker B: Yeah, so we'll see how that goes. I really got to get busy I've got all of the thoughts rattling around in my head, but it's a matter of getting them into, onto some slides.
[00:07:12] Speaker A: And I got a few presentations I have to build as well. And I'm a classic procrastinator, but I'm trying not to be for these ones, so.
[00:07:20] Speaker B: But the positive thing is, is you work best under pressure.
[00:07:23] Speaker A: That's right, yes.
[00:07:24] Speaker B: So.
[00:07:25] Speaker A: So that's a good thing on the 11th hour. Yes, for sure. Well, that's great, Chuck. I, you know, when I looked around at the conferences this winter, not to, you know, not to, you know, make little or pick on any of the other conferences going on, but I just noticed a lack of education type content or a lack of, you know, skills, you know, enhancing our skills. And that's why I've asked everybody coming to Drumheller to, you know, focus on that. Because at the end of the day when you do a market outlook, I love them, I appreciate them all the time, but that information expires. Sometimes it expires even before we get a chance to present it. This is going to be really good. So I really appreciate that.
[00:08:06] Speaker B: Yeah. And I'm looking forward to doing things a little bit differently because my goal in this or point in this is that as you said, the market conditions will change the next day or the next week or whatever. But if there are some principles that you can use that you can use for over the years rather than just the next week, here's what I'm going to do. That's a good thing. So with you on that, that's how.
[00:08:29] Speaker A: It'S been built out so that it's going to be awesome. So cool stuff there. Chuck, do you have anything else you're looking forward to in Drumheller? Have you looked at the town at all? Have you. Are you going to set some time aside to see some dinosaurs? What do you got on the schedule?
[00:08:43] Speaker B: Well, it's been a few years since I've been through there, but yeah, I don't know. The problem with our, the problem with our type of work is that you just, you, you just have to keep writing reports all the time. So it's kind of, it's a real drag that way. Like, you know, the things are. Anyway, whatever, not going to whine about it. So I will have a certain amount of time there, but, you know, won't be able to like just kick up my, or put up my feet and sit back and relax just when you're on stage.
[00:09:11] Speaker A: That's all right. I got, I got you covered. Everybody attending is getting a ticket to go and climb the world's tallest dinosaur and take a picture or selfie. So I had a. And it's 30 seconds from where the conference is, so you might get there. You might get to see a real tall dinosaur yet, Chuck.
[00:09:30] Speaker B: All right.
[00:09:31] Speaker A: Okay, man. You know, when you're on the show, we talk all things marketing. This is the Halloween edition and also a little bit of reflection on the year. But I'm going to get this one out later on Halloween. But I've been getting the ghosts. The Canola ghosts have been coming across here. And it's not that I want to pick on the buyers like I did last week, but, you know, I got a G3 notification about, hey, next week the tariffs are coming on. I got the Viterra. Hey, the boat sales. October 31st is fine, November 1st it isn't. I even have Cargill coming and saying, hey, the US Is not going to be accepting Canadian canola oil anymore. And I'm like, what?
[00:10:18] Speaker B: I haven't heard that one.
[00:10:19] Speaker A: Yeah. So anyways, all these different things with this negativity out there, and for me, if I. Let's not. Let's park the Cargill one, because I told the farmer, I'm like, I'm going to have to do some Googling to figure some of that out. It wasn't top of mind for me. But let's just talk about China specifically. I think the easy thing is to say, hey, at some point they're going to announce something that's going to be negative. Right. But are you. Have you had any, any insight on when that could be? Have you seen any change in tensions between China and Canada? Is there anything that we can warn the farmers on the Halloween edition about the Canola market?
[00:11:01] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean, we were just. We were just talking about how quickly market conditions can change. And so hopefully by the time this goes to air, things won't have, you know, made me look stupid in the meantime.
[00:11:11] Speaker A: Oh, it's happened to me already, so don't worry about it.
[00:11:14] Speaker B: Yeah, so. So I think you're right. It is a given that it will happen at some point. It's just a matter of when that is. And, you know, and truth be told, I think. I think there are, you know, there is more. There are more of these reports, these rumors, these, these kind of things that are filtering out. So I think just based on frequency, it. It seems to be leading in that direction that it could be sooner rather than later. I think there are.
[00:11:40] Speaker A: Where there's smoke, there's fire, Is that what you're saying?
[00:11:42] Speaker B: Yeah, those kind of things. Yeah. Rolling Stone, I don't know. Or. Yeah, whatever. But, but yeah, it's, you know, I think the, I think, for example, the Canola Council, you know, is always talking back and forth with the Canadian government and trade people there and stuff like that. And so that can filter out to the members of the Canola Council and, you know, or maybe the merchants are talking to their counterparts in China and they're some stories that way. So who knows how it's coming out, but it seems to be coming out more and more. And somebody told me that there is based on the trade rules, if they're whatever they're worth, but the trade rules is that November 6th or 7th or whatever is the soonest that China could announce something. So who knows, Maybe that's what they're talking about. Maybe they're just speculating based on that that, you know, next week sometime, that's when that could change. So, yeah, it's quite possible. And I mean, we, we're, we're almost certain that it will happen. It's just, it's just the timing.
[00:12:45] Speaker A: Yeah. Yeah.
[00:12:46] Speaker B: And whether, and even then, once they announce that, you know, do they have a certain whatever to get the boats loaded? You know, is it those types of things? And you know, if they're, is there a period or, or yeah, if sales have been made, you know, already, like, you know, a few weeks ago or a couple months ago for delivery in November, December, whatever the timeframe, are those still. Okay. Are those still. We don't know. Right. So there's all kinds of uncertainty about it. But the most certain thing is that it probably will happen at some point. When the Canadian government a couple of weeks ago talked about they, you know, that they would, they were kind of softening the tariffs on EVs or I guess aluminum and steel, those kind of things, and allow some exceptions. You know, there was some hope that that might ease things. But yeah, I'm not sure the bigger one in my mind and. Well, just to finish that thought and I think if there is a tariff put in place, it's not going to get dropped quickly. So the question is how long does that last? And so on. You know, you're. But the point you raised about canola oil to the US that one is, that one to me would be a way bigger deal.
[00:14:05] Speaker A: Actually, the grower I spoke to, I said if, if that were the case, and I'm sure I'm taking this out of context a little bit but if that were the case, like, I would consider not growing canola, like, you would have to, like, if that would be a complete game changer in that market moving forward. So I think what, I think what's maybe coming out of that, you know, if I'm trying to read through this, is that there's the talk about, you know, the used cooking oil coming into the US and trying to see which government will be elected and then in the US and then who will, you know, stop that from coming in. But that would be bullish soybean oil. I would think so. I don't know.
[00:14:53] Speaker B: Yeah, it would. That would really cause a lot of disruption because the canola oil that gets produced in Canada, the output, the crushers output, what's the Number now? About 3/4 of it gets exported. Of that oil gets exported and almost all of it to the US These days.
[00:15:10] Speaker A: Yeah. So it looks like the lion's shares to the U.S. so, I mean, the, it is true.
[00:15:17] Speaker B: I mean, Donald Trump has talked about across the board, tariffs, 10% tariffs from. Well, who knows? On, on all products from any country. So. Yeah, yeah, so that is, I guess that's. Maybe that's what they're talking about. Yeah, I could be, I don't know if a 10%. Well, 10% tariff would be pretty damaging.
[00:15:38] Speaker A: Yeah, so.
[00:15:39] Speaker B: So if that's the case. Yeah, that's, that's, that's a real risk as well, too. But on the positive side, let's have some.
[00:15:46] Speaker A: I was going to say let's go see if there's anything positive here.
[00:15:49] Speaker B: Yeah, sure. Well, you know, in the last few years, Even before the 21 drought, Canadian canola prices were going like this. And to a large degree, Canadian canola was at a premium to a lot of other locations, like particularly Australia as a key export competitor. But Canadian canola now has dropped off, and Australian canola stayed largely steady. So right now we're right in the same ballpark in terms of prices. So what that means is from a competitive perspective for places like Japan and Mexico, which used to be large buyers of Canadian canola, they would both take about one and a half million tons, give or take, or they would each take that much. Last year, it dropped off considerably because they were shifting to Australian canola. And so now that we're competitive again, we're probably in a position to regain some of that market share. And we're also going to be exporting more to Europe this year. We could probably export a bunch to UAE now and they would crush it. And you Know that could be another million tons. Crush that, sell the oil to China, you know those, those types of things. So there are other outlets but yeah, there is risk in the market.
[00:17:10] Speaker A: Our next segment here. So what's cool in crop marketing this week? You know, as we chat with Chuck Penner here, we talked about, you know, pulse markets being a little bit quiet right now. Maybe prices pulling back in in a few of those red lentils, some of the green lentils now have pulled back and yellow peas are quiet as well.
I'd call the wheat market even though basis levels continue to improve like I, I'd call it. Well futures obviously pulled back. You guys all, all saw that. So it's been a little challenging to line up futures and basis. You almost have to catch a futures rally of 30, 40 cents, lock that in and then wait on basis. And I did talk to a few growers here the last couple weeks. They did implement that strategy earlier this year, you know and some guys were talking about the north of nine dollar wheat that they had locked in, which is fantastic. But the wheat market's been a bit tricky. Now the one thing that stands out, another thing that stands out for me this week is that the wheat price in parts of Saskatchewan and parts of Alberta actually very, very close to each other, which is not normally the case. So I don't know if it's the Saskatchewan buyer being a little under bought that's paying a bigger premium or if it's the Alberta side where they are paying a little less premium because maybe they have some coverage on or less demand. I'm not sure but I'm used to seeing you know, 50, 60 cent spread and some examples. It was 10 cents and some examples were the same. So it's something's a little bit fishy there in the wheat market. Now from a wheat futures perspective, I know the Kansas, the US winter wheat crop is, is pretty terrible From a good to excellent perspective here the crop rating is not very good at all. And not saying it'll be the worst crop rating of the year, but there are rains and have been rains for that winter wheat area of the US and so maybe the crop ratings wouldn't surprise me if they're going to get a little bit better here again. We'll see. It doesn't really matter till next spring with what all, what all happens. It's been very dry in the US during harvest. Quick harvest pace and less moisture in that crop as well. So wheat, I've got some something for you and eating your veggies there but on the wheat side, again, futures pulling back, basis, improving, trying to figure out that way to market that crop. What else is cool in crop marketing? I would say there's been a lot of chatter here about, you know, some of these bonus type contracts. And I did put it in the email the other day to you guys, to the listeners, but, you know, I know a few of you reached out, one in particular and said, what's the. What's the trick here? Like, I don't understand why I'm getting this premium. Like, what. What am I missing? And, you know, at the end of the day, to me, there's no. Nothing, nothing shady going on here. There's nothing spooky going on. You know, for the Halloween episode, it's. It's using a market. So in the example, I believe it's called a premium offer. You know, the canola market was $14. The premium offer was a $700 strike for next fall, which worked out to above $15 as well. So kind of 15 for both years.
And the way they're doing that is they're selling that call and taking that premium and paying you for it now, so moving you from 14 to 15. All right? Give or take. And then with that, you have that commitment, that offer that may or may not strike may not hit for next fall. And so if you want to find, like, where's the rub here? Where is the problem is that it may never strike at the 700. It just may never get there. And you kind of wish it would have in that scenario. Or, you know, at times it can blow above that, and you sit there and say, darn it, I sold this at 700 when the market's now 800 or whatever. But I love it. I love the strategy. I really love it. In a. In when you have a trading account, this is not a recommendation by me to go and do that in a trading account. But if you are working with Cargill or Viterra or Bungie, you can say, hey, what. What's going on here? How do I extract this premium? And why would I do it? Or why not? And to me, for our farm, you know, you get the premium now, and I am super comfortable, super comfortable with the offer out there at 650, 675, or 700. I can, you know, we can talk about how to navigate and manage around that in the future. Like, how do we protect ourselves if the market's going to 800? What can we do? Because there are strategies you can look at there, but I believe not. I Believe I still remain bearish. The Canola market into next fall and my bearish stance is changing a little bit, but still lower. Generally speaking, I just think it's a thing that you can look at and consider. All right. Especially with those grain buyers. Reach out to them and say, hey, let's throw money at the wall here. Like what's the good and the bad here? And please explain it to me. And of course you can email me as well and I can see if I can help you out. What else do I have here for what's cool in crop marketing? I think that, I think I'm going to leave it at that. Chuck had a lot this week, so let's leave it at that. He's got what's cool in crop marketing as well. Little spicy there. Now a quick word from our show sponsor, John Deere. Did you know that you have a precious commodity on your land? I'm not talking about crops. I'm talking about your data. Every day your fields and machines are giving you valuable data and what do you and what you do with it affects costs, can affect costs and yield potential. Thankfully, there's John Deere Operations Center. It's an online farm management platform where you can connect your equipment, your fields and your operators. It's a single place to stream all your data. A place where you can monitor equipment, track work in the field, even analyze your results. Check it out at John Deere CA all right folks, do me a quick favor here. When you get a chance, go and hit that subscribe button, all right? Wherever you get your what the Futures fix. If you're on YouTube, you're seeing me in this green octopus costume thing and not the fanciest thing. It's just a hat that my daughter picked out. But go hit the subscribe button on YouTube. You can go to the website Ryan, Denis ca get our latest updates. I'm. I'm emailing weekly at a, at a minimum and stay up to date with what we have going on here at the what the Futures podcast Housekeeping. This week we have some tickets to give away for November 8 to the professional bull riding event here in Edmonton. When I originally bought these tickets, I thought we would host like a one year anniversary party for the podcast. So it's. Yeah, it's kind of, it's kind of that.
But it's going to be a heck of a, heck of a an event. It's gonna be a lot of fun and looking forward to hanging out with John, Scott and Tom have all won tickets to the PBR event. They've all been notified as well. And so thanks everyone that participated. Of course all you have to do is text in Bull to 1 855-606-1889. That is the what the futures text line. And you can text me anything on there if you want to. If you have a grain marketing question now, we can talk about it there. If you have some comments about the show, hey, send them in. That's how you can get a hold of me. All right. What else do we have for housekeeping? Well, the conference, you know, I'm recording this on Wednesday, October 30th.
It is not sold out as of recording but it is approaching that. Ticket prices have climbed now to $999. So we are selling tickets here until November 15th. So just a couple of weeks left. You want to attend the conference? We will, yeah. Close those sales off here on, on November 15th. So a little price increase there to 9.99 and again head over to Ryandini CA. You can apply.
There's a lot of applications floating out there so I am assuming that people are going to hit that button to buy and yeah, we'll see here. Approaching that sold out level for sure.
Other than that for housekeeping this week the Lunchbox Crew closes November 1st.
We had a nice, yeah, a nice little run here this week of farms joining the lunchbox crew to gain some crop marketing advice. Got the latest canola and yellow pea recommendations there as well. And as one farmer said, just looking for a little bit more guidance here in some of these markets and been talking a lot of strategy here as well the last little while.
What else? I think that's about it for housekeeping. Yeah, let's wrap it up with that.
How about in regards to Canadian production? Have you, you know, we're just over a month away from a Statscan production update, but have you taken a look at production totals and come up with any different numbers on that side?
[00:27:14] Speaker B: Oh, we got lots of different numbers.
[00:27:18] Speaker A: Throw darts and pick one.
[00:27:19] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, it's you know, like the last statscan number was 18.9 million tons. And most people think, well that's probably on the high side and there are some really, really low ones. There's ones in the like 16s. You know, I don't think I can quite go there either. We're in the mid, the low to mid 18s would be our guess typically like because StatsCan will put out their next one in December.
But that's based on a farmer survey. It's completely different method for calculation than the ones they did in August and September. So it's completely different. I would not at all be surprised to see that number drop from like their estimate is going to drop like this.
[00:28:00] Speaker A: I think so too.
[00:28:01] Speaker B: And I don't want to say that farmers are sandbagging, but they're sandbagging. They always do. Because out of the last 10 years, every year StatsCan has had to go back and add more supply, add more production in after that survey.
So they'll probably drop in December and then sometime six months or a year from now, they'll raise it back up again. So that would be the.
But whether it's going to actually change. I think there's all this other stuff going on that the size of the Canadian crop is actually one of the least important variables in the market.
[00:28:38] Speaker A: Well, I think the, like, if I have to, you know, I'm pretty open on the podcast. So like when I, when I look at marketing Canola right now, I feel like we're getting the best of everything right now. We have the best export numbers, we have the crush is just doing its thing, cruising along. We don't have any tariffs. We have these rumors of the slower crop. Like this is all baked into the market right now. And I sit here and think, well, geez, why, why would I risk, why would I risk more here? If the canola market's 14ish, maybe a bit under, a bit over depending where you farm, you know, why wouldn't I continue to move this physical stuff out? And if I want to be bullish, if stats can surprises the heck out of us, I can do that on paper all day long. And so I've given up some basis. I think potentially we'll see next spring and summer by locking some basis in, getting some puts on continuing to sell. And my consulting clients, we've been uber aggressive on paper, we can do our thing after, but the physical stuff, there won't be a drop on farm here in the next month or so. It's going to be gone. So not saying that's the right thing. It's not the right thing for every farmer. And I don't want to go and say that. It's just when the downside risks, when those headlines come out or those updates come out, it's going to be a bad day and a bad week.
[00:30:21] Speaker B: Yeah, it's, it's, it's whether that's gonna last for a while. Like if that reaction is just a, you know, it's just a, you know, like when they first announced that they were investigating Canadian Canola. You know, you saw the price go, you know, it worked its way back. Higher.
[00:30:38] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:30:38] Speaker B: Is this going to be the same thing?
I don't know. You know, but I would agree with you, though. I would say that if anybody really has. Doesn't have much sold, I don't think you want to be going into, you know, I think you'd want to be looking at some of these. Some of these bids that are, you know, that are these, these companies are so generously at this point and actually take some advantage of those to get caught up to, you know. You know, to not be completely hanging out there in the wind.
[00:31:08] Speaker A: Yeah. All right. Okay. So that's great. I think we talked about a lot of Canola stuff there. The, the Pulse markets seem quiet to me. Are they. Or what's going on with pulses?
[00:31:20] Speaker B: Yeah, when it comes to some of the. There's a little bit of wait and see going on in the Pulse markets. And maybe that's one of the best ways to describe it. When I think about lentils, for example, I mean, green lentils. Let's just put these aside first. Green lentils, green peas. Those prices are still, you know, very firm. I saw some green lentil bids this last week. This last week, a number of companies, you know, dropped their green lentil bids by a couple of cents. And I think that's just because, you know, they've been buying like crazy and the pace has been so, so crazy. And now those overseas buyers are going, okay, we're full for now. And so it's just a bit of a. Bit of a breather. I don't know that we're going to see a huge rally. So, you know, I think at some point, both green peas, green lentils, they do kind of just level off instead of doing, you know, just rallying like that. Right. So. So that's. That's fine. I don't think there's much downside in those, though. But when you look at red lentils, for example, you know, the market got up to 35 and, you know, or whatever, either side of 35 cents. Right. And it's. It's kind of just sat there and even. Even come off that a little bit. Those 35s, I think, are a little harder to find again. So it's what we're. What we're waiting for there. The wait and see part is a. How bad is the Australian crop because of frost and drought? How much did they lose? And then a little bit beyond that. How are Indian farmers going to plant their lentil crop, which will be in a few weeks. They're going to be. Well, they'll be starting any day now, actually, with planting their red lentil crop with pretty good moisture conditions. So how does that play out in the next while? So that's going to be the, that's the wait and see part. And I think in the short term, you know, those mark, that market is going to kind of just keep going sideways as well, too. Like, I don't think there's a huge rally there. That's. That's how I'm reading it. Unless there's a big weather problem in India that shows up at some point in their growing season. For yellow peas, though, like, that would be the other one, I guess the other big one. There is a bit of just like canola. There's a bit of risk in that market as well, too, and that's that India will, will put these tariffs back on again after December 31st. That's when they have zero tariffs now. And so that's a risk. Now, we've been moving a whole lot of yellow peas this fall, I'm trying to remember. Yeah, the fastest pace since 2021. And so we've been moving a whole lot of yellow peas. But again, we saw those yellow pea bids moving higher, but they've already kind of gone sideways. And so I think that fall surge of exports, which we always get to some extent, that's kind of already passed now. And now we're sitting back into a quieter time of year. And if India does put tariffs back on, then China's really the only other buyer and that's going to be steady but not fantastic kind of business, especially with having to compete with Russia.
[00:34:28] Speaker A: So from a Australian harvest side, have they started harvesting their lentils or they. Is it around the corner?
[00:34:35] Speaker B: They might have started a few fields, but no, I think most of it is a few weeks away yet. Probably late November. I'm somebody who knows more about that. They've been exporting or they've been harvesting their chickpeas down the west coast. So they start from north, work their way south. Right. So they've started those and that's just caused chickpea prices there to absolutely crater. But the areas where they grow their chickpeas, their desi chickpeas, which a lot of those are going to be heading to India too. Another great and not great thing for, for the yellow pea market, those prices have really dropped off as well, too, but they're grown in a different area. So the lentils are Victoria, South Australia.
And those are the areas where there was frost and there was drought.
So. Yeah.
[00:35:24] Speaker A: Okay. All right. So, yeah, I think a word of caution for listeners on some of the pulses here, and I know I've been trying to move the needle on yellow pea sales myself just to get a bit more coverage there and a little less exposure, but we'll see. All right, Chuck, anything else crop related that comes to mind here? I know I got oats are just slowly grinding up in Alberta, but it's not fast.
[00:35:54] Speaker B: Yeah, you know, the oat thing is one that puzzles me. You know, like we've, we've had the benefit of some exports to offshore, like out of Vancouver to Mexico and South America and things like that. So that's kind of benefited. But last year our business to the U.S. which normally buys like 90% of our oats, just was awful. And so this year, so far, it's been kind of, you know, mediocre too. So that's one thing I haven't been able to figure out is whether there's a, just an overall shift in the US to use more of their own oats, whether they're keeping, you know, milling more of their own oats with less demand for Canada, which, you know, maybe we don't need to grow as big oat crops anymore, if that's, if that's the case. And I haven't been able to get a straight answer out of anybody yet on that. So if anybody's listening.
[00:36:47] Speaker A: Yeah, reach out to Chuck. There we go.
[00:36:49] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:36:50] Speaker A: All right, awesome. Well, like, like we do every month or every six weeks. Really appreciate you coming on the show and participating and giving listeners all the great insights and hope you join us here for season two as well.
[00:37:06] Speaker B: Okay, Sounds great, Ryan.
[00:37:07] Speaker A: Okay, man. We'll see you in drum, Miller.
[00:37:09] Speaker B: Good.
[00:37:13] Speaker A: All right, positive moments of the week here. I'm going to, I'm actually going to talk about the one year reflection here of the podcast as well. Right after my positive moments. You'll see it'll spin into together but number one, Halloween with the kids. Right. Halloween this week, this episode came out on Halloween. Just a blast. We've been dressing up, you know, we have to dress up for our community dance here the other day on the, on the weekend, Willa will be in her costume four times. You know, four different costumes. I guess it's been Halloween every day here in our household and you know, just seeing the kids when they go especially, you know, like what Will is right into it as a four year old. But Finn, you know, he's been practicing with his little bucket. He's been practicing saying trick or treat. And he's a smart little bugger because he doesn't even say trick anymore. He just goes up, puts the pail out and says treat. And that's it. He's not going to mess around at all with the trick part. He's just saying, hey, I'm here. I'm in my adorable costume. Give me my treat, and I'm going to move on. He's got to figure it out. Smart kid. But Halloween with the kids, obviously, just a blast. Other positive moment for this week is it's my wife and I. It's our wedding anniversary. 14 years of marriage on October 30th. 19 years together.
And, you know, we've, like many people out there, we've been through. Been through a lot, you know, throughout our relationship. Been through the highs and lows together and just to pause and have a nice bottle of wine. And we got some charcuterie as well. And I did not record the podcast on Wednesday night, which is when I normally do, because it was our anniversary. So it was nice to just reminisce a little bit about the day and just appreciate what we have built together as well. So look at that. Getting soft on you for episode 50 here. All right, and the last one, the podcast, what the Futures podcast, turns a year old on November 3rd. All right, so when is November 3rd? It's probably Sunday or something like that. So one year old.
And, you know, I just wrote down a few cues for myself here. So I wrote down, you know, what stands out from the last year.
And I listened to the first episode again the other night, and, you know, in there I said that I was starting this pod for farmers in Western Canada to provide transparency and community around crop marketing and farm business.
I had no idea when I recorded that that I'd be putting a conference together, which is bringing in community and doing. Yeah, doing all this stuff.
I sat down with. I don't know, I think I had a scotch actually, the first episode when I recorded that first 20 minutes. And I knew that I wanted to bring transparency to crop marketing. I wanted to talk about what was going on in Western Canada for farmers and keep episodes positive as well. You know, the episodes come out on Positive Friday more often than not. I've been sending some of them out Thursday night here, but they're meant for Positive Friday, you know, positivity around farm business, positivity around crop marketing and to try to help farms out as well. And so it's been a really, really fun year. I was listening to the quality of the first few episodes from a sound perspect and I know that one day I'll listen to this episode and say the same thing. I can't believe how much better my sound quality is or the lighting or. But those first couple episodes are pretty rough. So if you did listen to those ones and hung in here. Yeah, thank you for that, you know, and I, I want to thank the listeners for, for helping grow this thing the last year. I, I want to thank Chuck, who's joining me in this episode, you know, for being a regular guest. Brett with BAM wx, which we haven't had on for a while, but, you know, regular contributor as well. David with Marketplace Commodities, Ryan Copperthorne with Cows and Control. That was like the original group of guests that were confirmed here to hang out with me every couple months. Kyle with producer Profit made a couple of stops as well this summer and a lot of people reached out and appreciated his context. Trent Clarenbach with Clarenbach Research has been on a few times now. And James Mitchell providing us some fertilizer insight with Crop Management Network and all the other guests as well. We had a bunch of people join the show over the last year and you know, even when I did the 12 Days of Christmas, I think I had like nine different guests on in them in the span of those 12 days. And so I appreciate everyone, you know, taking the leap in time and jumping on and providing insight here for farmers in Western Canada. Our guest from the furthest away was Mike Lee from the uk and I hope to get him on again here. But to everyone that was on the show, I again thank you for joining and contributing and I really certainly do appreciate it. I also want to thank Steve, Stephen and Jeff who, you know, they were the folks that helped me get this off the ground at the very beginning, editing the first episodes, doing the marketing and, you know, just starting this. You got to start somewhere. And Stephen and Jeff put their hand up and, and certainly helped me with all the early stuff. And then from there, you know, just a hats off to Veronica, you know, Stephen, another Stephen and Augustine for Pod Sound School. You know, they took over the editing reins on May 1 and just upleveled the show, you know, one more time. I love the intro music we had at the start, but, you know, they came and took the show and certainly provided lots of good guidance for sound and visual and all sorts of things in the background. So it's been great.
You know, Fox and fourth for the social media stuff. They've been a great partner as well here the last eight months. And then Yvonne, who joined in the spring as well, helping me with marketing, branding, everything conference related, everything lunchbox crew related. Yeah, it's been great. And then of course, again, all the farmers, the engagement and the interactions, you know, when I, when I think about what stands out from the last year, you know, the, the amount of farmers that reach out now with questions, you know, it. Comments. A day doesn't really go by anymore where I don't get something, some type of message. It's many per week now. And so I, I just totally appreciate it and it's awesome to see that providing crowd marketing advice, you know, through a podcast to people that you don't really know week to week, it's, it's challenging.
I don't want it to be regurgitated storylines that you already have read.
And I also realize that the podcast is going to come out once a week. And so I, I need to be cautious and careful about what to put out as well.
Things change and they can change quickly.
And also, you know, I don't, I said this last week, but I don't have the right to give farms, you know, that specific advice. At the end of the day, your crop marketing plan is your own.
And I hope that some of the stuff that came, has come across through the podcast has given you maybe a bit more confidence in a decision or maybe has, you know, you looked at alternative strategies that helped. Maybe you want, maybe you had some wins on the crop marketing side because of something you heard on the podcast. That's all great. Yeah. At the end of the day, it's about trying to make a positive impact and just trying not to get too far ahead of my skis or, you know, trying to make sure that what I'm putting out there is quality and useful as well. So what else do I have here? Yeah, yeah. And the comments that come in have a lot of positive comments have come in from farmers about like, I know people say, oh, it's too long a podcast is too long, or, oh, you know, this and that, or whatever. There's always little things that pop up. But, you know, when I hear from a farmer that something they listen to, you know, help them make that decision and end up being a really good decision, like, that's just a huge, huge win. That's why the show was created. All right, My best spot to record an episode, episode 41 was literally recorded right beside the campfire with my daughter. Sitting right beside me, wondering what the heck I was doing. So I took all some of my. Well, not all, but some of the equipment on the road there and recorded an episode basically on my phone by the campfire. And that was probably the most unique spot. I was on the deck at my in laws recorded in. In Brandon and the John Deere booth. That one was pretty fun as well because the John Deere guys there, I said, hey, it was like seven in the morning. I'm like, hey, I like to record before the show gets busy, the farm show gets busy. And they're like, who are you? And I'm like, I have a podcast. You guys are a sponsor, you know, and like, oh, yeah, have at it, you know, good luck. And away we went. Best advice that I gave on the show.
Well, just being bearish in a bearish market didn't hurt me. Right. Bearish market trend. Thinking prices would work lower didn't. Didn't hurt me at all. But marketing weed in June, if you go back to the June episodes, you know, I believe that that turned out really well for those following along and then not selling canola here this fall when that panic hit. I have sold canola since in the rallies, but not in the decline, which apparently some folks didn't dodge that. So anyway, and worst advice, you know, I.
You probably have a better idea than I do. You're probably shaking your fist saying, I remember when he said this and it was wrong. I'm sure there's a few of those. I would say oats maybe was a little bit too. Didn't act with enough urgency at times on oats. That one kind of stands out for me and maybe a little bit too aggressive on yellow peas. Selling yellow peas at harvest time, that might be the other one that falls on me a bit more here. But hey, if you have one, if you have a worst piece of advice, you know what? It's probably. Honestly, now that I think about it a bit more, fertilizer. Fertilizer prices have not dropped and you know, I did talk a pretty big game about fertilizer prices declining here. And that has not turned out. So that. That's probably the biggest one actually, if I think about it. So anyway, you can let me know what it is. All right, that's. That's my reflection here for, for season one. Season two, you know, just. We continue rolling on. I'm not even going to call it season two. It's just going to be episode 51. And we keep going and we do. We have some new guests coming on this week or this week, this next year. The studio behind me, it's going to take me some time, but there's some new things for the studio. New lights coming in as well, new camera, so just continuing to make some, some enhancements there. And UPL continues to be a partner here first for the next season, John Deere as well. And we're still working some details out with a few folks. So anyways, if you have any moments from the last year you want to highlight, just send them over to Ryan at what the Futures podcast. Ca. That's the email and I'd love to hear them. All right, folks, let's get to eating your veggies this week, brought to you by the Lunchbox crew. Intake closes November 1st. If you're listening to this after the 1st, I apologize. You'll have to wait till the next one later this winter. All right, a couple things for me, I still, I like wheat targets. I talked about this, I've talked about this a few times in the past. I still like having a wheat target out there. I know that the fancy way to do this is to target futures off like March, wait for basis to continue to improve and that, you know, will get you your best possible price. Like I get that. But if you, if you don't want to stress yourself out over that, then I still like putting those wheat targets out. So if you're being shown an 8, you know, throw an 830 or an 840 out there. If you're being shown an 830 or an 840, try an 870 or an 875. Give those merchants something to aim for because they have room in their basis to do this. Canadian dollar certainly helping the way it's been going, but they have some room here. Demands phenomenal. And see what they see what that looks like. Okay. The other thing too, I will say that on the pulse side and then I'll switch to 2025. But on the pulse side again, I like being a yellow pea seller for old crop. Right now, the 24 crop, I like moving that one out. Chuck certainly gave me more confidence in that. But you know, if you're selling lentils or peas, yellow peas, green peas, maple peas, there's room here to make some sales. Okay. And you know, maybe the green pea grower and the green lentil grower holds a bit back or maples, you hold a bit back. Further upside. But I would still be making incremental sales here if it were, if it were me, I would be getting Something else done at this time. And then my last thing here is I just, you know, if I could wave my tentacles around a flag around or warning sign, you know, a red light flashing like it. Don't forget about the fall of 2025, okay? I know you got a lot on your plate right now. You've been busy in the field doing dirt work now that harvest is wrapped up and it's going to get colder here eventually. But the fall is 25. We're being shown wheat values of north of $8 in Saskatchewan for a number 113.5 protein. Alberta, not quite 9, but getting close. Don't forget about that. And canola. Can you make money on 14 canola next year?
Just don't. If you get a chance here as it gets colder, you know, brush off that marketing plan for next fall of 2025. See what it looks like and don't, just don't forget about that one. You can start building a really healthy, profitable plan here for your farm for next year. That's it for eating your veggies. I was going to talk about canola, but I've shown my cards already in the episode and if I want to clarify this a little bit more, you know, our, our farm would be sitting here north of 80% sold. I always want to be cautious around this because I. We get enough farms telling other farms what to do. So I'm not coming at it from that angle. I'm coming at it from how do you want to handle marketing your canola crop over the next two, four, six months? And for me, I would rather be fumbling on how to capture the upside, you know, fumbling that around, maybe making a little mistake here or there, trying to capture the rest of the upside, knowing that my downside is protected. My downside is it can't get any worse, right?
And I'm comfortable with that. I don't know what your comfort level is, but you know, with farms I work with personally, we made a plan that fits the farm lunchbox group. We've been making sales here incrementally. We still have stuff to sell. My farm still has a little bit of stuff to sell as well. I'm not 100% committed. I'm getting there, but not quite.
But how do you want to handle this? And it's important for you to sort that out in your own crop marketing plan here. And we're going to be hanging out in Drumheller together when stats can prints out report. So we'll see what all happens between now and then.
All right, that's it for eating your veggies. All right, then. Closing here. If you found the episode useful, please share it with a friend, neighbor, colleague in your local community. I really appreciate you getting the word out there, and I know you are because numbers listens continue to climb. Prices may change by the time we record and send this. Most of the recording is done on a Wednesday.
And things happen, things change. Everything we talked about is for discussion. There's no guarantees of profitability or that they're good decisions. You know, at the end of the day, we're. We're trying our best here, but you have to make it your own. If you want to be a guest on the show, you know, reach out to me. Head over to the website, Ryan, Denis, ca. And if you want to be a sponsor, connect, that's where you go as well. But yeah, have a good, positive Friday, folks. Have a good weekend.
I'm out. Octopus is out.
