Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Well, this week's episode we bring back a fan favorite of the what the Futures podcast. Kyle Sinclair joins me here once again and we go over like we did a few weeks ago at Blindman Brewery, a bunch of scenarios. We talk about the wheat market, what's going on with wheat, and Wilhelmina stops by, Finley stops by as well. The kids join me here for just a moment in episode 74. So let's get into it. Welcome folks. Have a nice day.
Hey folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast. Your quick guide guide to better farming decisions.
So each and every episode is recorded in the UPL studio here. So episode 74, I gotta mention here, the Melfort Mustangs, they went through the SGHL playoffs. I called them to win back to back champs. They've done it earlier this week, Melfort Mustangs won the SJHL Canterra Cup. So congrats to the Mustangs. Of course, upl, a huge sponsor of the SGL SJHL playoffs. We've been promoting Aikido the whole month here on our social media. If you went on X or Instagram or Facebook, you could go and just say where you farm like the post say where you farm and even tag another farmer for a bonus entry to win yourself 80 acres of Aikido and two flats of what the Futures brew. And here we are folks, the end of the month we have our winners, two of them. Alden Sotheby from, I want to say Lavoy, I think he said Vegarville in the, in the post, but I thought it was Lavoie, which is about an eight minute drive out of Vegarville, so maybe I'm being nitpicky, but congratulations to Alden and you have won yourself 80 acres of Aikido and somewhat the Futures brew. And I'm going to be able to personally deliver that one because I am not that far down the road, actually about a 45 minute drive from me. And then Cody, Cody, I apologize, I'm gonna butcher your last name. Gwazak. I'm gonna go with Gowazik here. I'm just a French, French guy trying to pronounce it but gonna go with Gawazak. Cody's been a podcast listener for since the very beginning, I think out of Dauphin, Manitoba. And congratulations Cody, you also won yourself 80 acres of a keto and a couple flats of brew. What? The future's brew. So of course drink responsibly folks and stay safe out there. So big thanks to UPL for putting those packages together for us. I'm excited. I Will have UPL on the show next week. We're gonna talk about some fun products here that you can consider for the 2025 growing season. The Canola market showing some strength. We got some products here. We're gonna talk about next week that you may, may look at when it comes to, you know, and going forward, I should say going for it on that Canola yield. All right folks, episode 74 here. Kyle joins me. This is a little different one. I thought that it's different. It's a conversation about crop marketing. But I was full time dad this week. Chantel, my wife was, was away for work and so Kyle, you know, freed up some time for me and we did a little bit of a last minute, you know, just shooting the breeze, talking crop marketing. So I appreciate Kyle coming on the show. So we're going to do that. We're going to leave some of the segments for this week and bring them back into the show for next week. But I'll let Kyle take it away here. Conversation about crop marketing. Everything you need to know as you plant that crop and anticipate some of this, some of this market strength.
All right, folks, welcome into episode 70 something. I'm gonna go, I was thinking 73, 74. Yep. Episode 74 of the what the Futures podcast. I got Kyle Sinclair for from producer Profit joining me once again. Kyle, beautiful hats in the background, buddy.
[00:04:07] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, I figured you'd recognize a couple of those there. So. Yeah, absolutely got those. That, that's a Drumheller conference right there. That was a, that was a good time.
[00:04:17] Speaker A: I'm not going to ask if you're wearing, if you're wearing the gitch, man. I, I, I, I do have some here as well. Yeah, I'm mailing some out. I'm mailing some out. Right.
[00:04:29] Speaker B: So anyways, everybody needs, everybody needs a pair.
[00:04:32] Speaker A: Well, you might go through them during seeding here. Like you could run through a pair or two. I would think so.
[00:04:38] Speaker B: You never know. That's right.
[00:04:40] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:04:40] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:04:41] Speaker A: So thanks for, for jumping on, man. You're, you're a show favorite here.
[00:04:46] Speaker B: Awesome.
[00:04:47] Speaker A: So of course each and every episode recorded in the UPL studio. Let's get into it, man.
[00:04:52] Speaker B: You bet.
[00:04:53] Speaker A: I've got, I kind of got five different topics here. But you know, you do you find April the busiest time of the year for you or when's your peak?
[00:05:02] Speaker B: I was like, April definitely is one of the, one of the busiest times for sure. I, that and then right after harvest, like that really harvest forward because I mean you go out you visit guys in the field, then you do meetings, and then there's Christmas goodies and stuff like that. So, you know, and you're trying to get to everybody before they take off, if they're gonna. If they have, like, some winter holidays planned or something like that. You're trying to get some meetings in. So. But certainly the April time, because April kind of sneaks up, at least on me. Right. Like, so I'll get, like, all of a sudden, you know, you're February, and then you're creeping into March. And then all of a sudden it's like, oh, my gosh, I need to sit down with everybody and try to.
Before they start going. And of course, you know, in central. In central Alberta, usually I try to start further south and work my way north. But I mean, this year there was guys rolling in central Alberta maybe two, two and a half weeks ago. It was a quick start. Seeding's on you real quick all of a sudden. So.
[00:05:58] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. And April. April for me, like, usually multiple crop years at play, you know, two crop years, maybe a third.
I do a lot of crop insurance discussions, so that. And April's always swamped. All right, so you got some guys out there planting crops, but I want to talk about acreage ideas. So we're sitting here, the Canola market back from the dead. Who knew? Like, you know, are you hearing anything? Any acres, Any late swings are the plans? You know, I heard stories like, my plan was baked in a month ago. I'm not changing those acres. Canola acres came out. They're not going back in. Like, what about you in your travels? Anything on the acres?
[00:06:46] Speaker B: Honestly, you know, with a lot of the guys that I talked to, there wasn't a tremendous amount of switching that happened. I think there was. I think, if anything, you saw maybe a little bit of a shift on some of the yellow peas, because that outlook really got cloudy as soon as China pulled the tariff on that.
I don't know. Everybody's using tariffs these days. That's our hot word for 2025, I think. Buzzword. But certainly on the yellow piece, I think that one cooled off a little bit. There was certainly a little bit more nervousness when it came to Canola. But when I look across the acres of what guys have told me they're putting in, I don't see it being a significant change from what would have normally happened. Yeah, it declined in March, and it recovered quite quickly, back to at least decent levels. Right. Like, sure, we weren't at the peaks, but we Were we were at acceptable levels where I think it stays in the rotation. So but I do think that there's the acres that do shift.
I feel like they shift towards those smaller crops which I think is going to create some interesting markets for those crops because those are markets that get saturated very quickly and easily, especially if you have growing average growing weather.
[00:08:03] Speaker A: So you're thinking like barley or you thinking more like smaller acres? Flax, green lentils maybe?
[00:08:11] Speaker B: Yeah. And those ones are I think a little bit barley. I think we can weather the storm a little bit and we got pretty good. Like I was looking at some barley goods here today and really good old crop values now. I mean this is, we are in the pocket of selling. If you're looking for your spring rally, you're, you're in that window right now. So as far as seasonals go. So I like, I like those opportunities right now. The new crop bids are pretty darn good as well. I know you and I were talking about it earlier this week where you know, you're a lot of your malt bids are the same as the feed price.
[00:08:44] Speaker A: So certain pockets, they're there.
[00:08:47] Speaker B: I'm not sure why I would have the hassle of dealing with the malt company if I can make at least hedge some of those new crop acres that maybe, you know, you never know what harvest is going to bring. Maybe not everything's going to make malt anyway. Now you've got a good price locked in. So I think that we can, we can take advantage of some of those opportunities. Some of the problem that I have with some of those smaller markets is that it's harder to manage the risk on aggressive sales because you don't have a future component where you can go and offset it or do some risk management strategies. So you do have to, you really gotta in a way if it's a can't miss price then go heavy.
[00:09:23] Speaker A: But other than act of God, some of these companies have. Act of God. But I know the financial liquidity of some of the buyers in some of these markets has also been a bit of a question mark out there as well.
[00:09:38] Speaker B: So that's a very good point. Yeah, yeah. We have to be a little bit careful.
[00:09:44] Speaker A: So like I think the flax acre thing like acres were so low that the rebound was coming anyway. But that's one that because it's not tariff exempt either. Like it can run into some of that tariff hiccup. So I'm a little bit worried about flax and lentil bids. They've been just for the most, reds are kind of hanging in, but large greens, small greens have just been. Every week they kind of just go lower and lower and lower. So, yeah, so those acres are coming.
[00:10:12] Speaker B: I agree. I think those acres lower. And I, I do, I do agree. The act of God certainly helps the farms with getting some advanced sales on the books and extending the risk. But in a nutshell, you gotta be careful with buyer liquidity. That's a real risk. And I think you almost have to safeguard yourself a little bit from the farm dynamic with, you know, even if you make a decent sized contract, maybe deliver some and get paid and deliver some and get paid, as opposed to just delivering the whole contract and waiting for your money, I think that's something that, especially when you get into higher values and some of the shakiness that we're seeing and all of the uncertainty around our export market, I don't know if the buyers have super confidence in where they're sending stuff all of the time right now. So I think, you know, that's a, that's a good point. And we saw just recently, even, you know, going back March, April, where I've had it, where some guys going into feedlots, into, you know, southern Alberta, the payments have been dragging a bit. And anytime payment drags, that's, that's kind of the canary in the coal mine of is somebody in trouble.
[00:11:19] Speaker A: So, yeah, one of those things that. It's very black and white.
Your payment terms are what they are and if they're delayed or then the excuses, the reasoning is not great reasoning. You sit there and say, that's kind of strange. Right? So again, I, yeah, I don't like talking about this stuff, but yet, man, it, it happened to us last year and I know and I don't. I, yeah, I got a few buyers I put on the no go list right now where I'm like, you're, you're in the penalty box for me. You're just going to sit there? Yeah, it's cause for, for concern. So I got this question actually the other day from a listener, but maple pea grower and I didn't write it down word for word, but we're talking about force majeure. And he asked about, you know, can a company, you know, enforce the force majeure, like come in and say, hey, we don't have a home for these maple peas or we want out of this contract. What would be the timeframe allowed where they could come back into the market and buy maple peas? So, for example, this a good Question. So this would be sold at 15, 16, 17, let's say and then the buyer comes in for just example purposes here only. You know, 10, 11, 12. Like they, there is a home for them eventually. Like what is that? Is there a time frame? And I, I thought that was a fantastic question. I didn't have an answer and I'm scared to go and try to ask for that answer. But what do you think about that?
[00:12:56] Speaker B: Well, I think it's, I think it's a fantastic point because I mean theoretically a force majeure is supposed to be something where you've lost the ability to export period. Not you've, not that you're a position as a business that you're going to take a hit. Well that's, that's business like the buyers don't care if the farm takes a hit. So why should, when the shoe's on the other foot, why should they get a free pass? So we can get into a buyer rant here very easily on, on this topic for sure. But I like excellent question. And I think they're, I think it's worth asking like if you're going to pull this kind of a card, then you better not be allowed to take delivery of anything and move it for six months. I don't know. Because you're escaping a profitable contract as a buyer and that's not fair.
[00:13:44] Speaker A: Maybe croppier like could it not be. Would it not croppy or maybe like I, because I just, I don't think it could be forever. But I'm just thinking like what's an acceptable time frame and to me that almost figure crop year would be and in this like I talked to, I did talk to one buyer of, of maple peas and they basically said like we don't know when these are going to move. The china is our destination. We don't know when they're going to move, how they're going to move. But we are willing to, we're going to honor our contract that we have with you. We just don't know when it's going to go.
[00:14:23] Speaker B: Absolutely.
[00:14:23] Speaker A: In that situation it was like that's fine, we'll manage cash flow around that. But it was a great question about the force majeure and it's time.
[00:14:30] Speaker B: Well and to put it the shoe on the other foot. So say the farm, let's reverse the contract is now at the low end and the market's moved higher. So the buyer obviously wants to make sure they maintain ownership of that volume. How many times have you seen it where movement is dragged out three months past its window. They don't cancel the contract and claim force majeure there because that's profitable. We'll find a home for it. You know, we're having rail issues or whatever the excuses always tend to be. But yeah, in that situation, they're very slow moving on, letting you out of it so that you can go market it somewhere else.
[00:15:05] Speaker A: So 90 days after the contracted month. So 120 days. Right. And that, and that is normal. And honestly, if I think of where our farm is in Saskatchewan and some of the farmers around there, like their contracts were dragging for 60, 70 days this winter, which was not my experience here in Alberta, but I was surprised to hear that in parts of Saskatchewan. But it happens all the time, right?
[00:15:31] Speaker B: Absolutely.
[00:15:32] Speaker A: So.
[00:15:32] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:15:32] Speaker A: Yeah. Okay. So I, I wanted. This is a slightly different, it's a different question here, but this popped in my mind because I asked this to listeners the other day on social media. But have you heard of anyone buying out a grain contract either? Quality went, you know, not a rise, but a miss here. Like the quality kind of lost what it needed to. To fill a contract. Or maybe someone accidentally over contracted. Have you heard anything on buyouts this, this winter or this last six months? You don't have to say name or specific scenario, but, but like, I mean.
[00:16:09] Speaker B: We ran into one of my least favorite buyers where the quality coming out all of a sudden wasn't what was expected.
Fortunately, in that situation there was the ability for us to maneuver just because the structure of the contract was based subject to sample. So obviously the sample is not representative. You know, here's, here's an escape route for us.
But you know, I do think that depending on what the discount is to the farm, if you're, if you're, I'm thinking more if this is malt barley or if it's something like that where it's not spec, that's getting out of that contract right now, Depending on where you contracted it at and jumping into a lower grade sale is probably going to save the farm money or make it money, right?
[00:16:55] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:16:55] Speaker B: How you view those discounts? Yeah, sure. But it, it really depends on the buyer. Like I, you know, there are a few buyers that if you have a good contract price and you want to escape it because you don't have the volume or something, you want to execute a buyout. If your contract price is higher than the market, there's only one company that will actually give you a check. Everybody else just shreds the contract. So for the most Part it's worth a look.
I haven't had a lot of it this year. A lot of my quality has been pretty solid or as expected. And I mean, the buyers, when it comes to wheat, they're not really discounting, depending on the area, but there's very limited protein discounts this year and most of the quality on grade is pretty solid. So not seeing a lot of. We haven't had to go down that road too much outside of, you know, if something went bad in the bin. That's the only scenario. Yeah.
[00:17:50] Speaker A: So we're talking buyers. That's why. That's why I jogged in my mind. But this is the scenario that I want to throw in front of you. So imagine getting solicited where you receive an email. So Kyle gets an email saying, I have this special. All right? You click on the email, you're like, I don't know what this is. Click on it. You log in and you see this fantastic price. Price that blows your socks off is amazing. It's. It's. It's something that you just. You never thought in your wildest dreams you could see. So you sign your. Take it, right? There's a timer that's ticking. You can put in your tonnage and you take it. And then you're sitting here thinking, this is so cool. Then you get a call saying, hey, this contract's not going to exist. This is a scenario that's happening right now that happened in Western Canada. I don't want to get into it too much because it's going to go down, probably a process that requires some legal experts to be involved. But I sit here and the comment that came out was that, you know, grain, this grain company in particular, people make mistakes and they let people out of those mistakes all the time for no charge. And I was like, that is not my experience.
Anyways. I've been trying to find out who's had this positive experience of getting out of these contracts from a mistake and not being. Being, you know, charged. Because, like, when I. I've had to make that phone call before and there's no. There's no love coming from the other end. There's no questioning making you feel like a turd.
[00:19:39] Speaker B: You're trying to.
[00:19:39] Speaker A: Yeah, you know, you've made a mistake and there's always. There's a cost. There's always some type of cost. So anyways, I'm going to try to report back on that later this year, potentially, and talk through this story, because in my mind, if you are solicited, if Someone comes at you with, hey, this is my offer, you have to see this.
[00:20:00] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:20:01] Speaker A: Then you know, I think there's something there for that farmer. They should get some of that advantage. So anyway, all right.
Oh, I'm getting interrupted by four year old here mid episode. Oh, and the two year olds right behind us, we go. Might have some special guests here shortly.
[00:20:20] Speaker B: Some tractors off the shelf.
[00:20:21] Speaker A: Okay, so moving on from buyers, we'll see if they join in here what plays out. But I do have. My next question was so canola basis, if I had a farm ask, you know, would you do a futures first contractor for old crop Canola off July and leave your basis open? What's your thoughts around that?
[00:20:41] Speaker B: So it's interesting. So with the spike that we had last, last week pushing us up to that $700 mark, now I've been looking for $700 canola futures for nine months, right. Waiting for that seven, it feels like forever.
So when it got there, I was like, let's hit the sell button. This is fantastic. Now keep in mind that we work with farms quite a bit on brokerage accounts and trading. So theoretically, you know, you're not out of ammunition when it comes to your sale. So that's a big nuance there that needs to be, I guess demonstrated. What I see in the market right now is like when you look at the amount of supply that we've taken out of the canola market, the amount that's remaining to sell on the farm, and especially after this run to 700, which got a $16 targets triggering, you know, certainly across large parts of Alberta and better values, elevated values everywhere. How much canola got sold on that bump and how much now, how much very limited supply is left. And so I don't want to bull everybody up because we've, you know, we've, it's been a roller coaster ride. And you know, I, yeah, I, I was talking with farms and I was saying, you know, go back six weeks when canola was 1180 a bushel and you had that nauseous feeling in your stomach because you didn't have anything or you were undersold. Now you're at 16 bucks. Don't move your goalposts, make some sales here and understand how you can reenter the market if you want. You take all of that aside and if I just evaluate the market based on where it's at right now, I think that you have the potential for a short squeeze in the market where you could get this thing popping higher in a, in spectacular fashion. Short Term. Right. So, like, it's hard to. Like those kind of moments in a market are very hard to predict where the top could be. Oh, yeah, right. Like it could jump from. From where we're at right now. I think we close it close to around 686,90. You could jump all the way up to, you know, 727, 67. Like it could spike for a week on the July contract as that gets squeezed out, and then you'll limit your demand and it'll fall back really quick as well. So I don't mind the basis, but on the flip side of that, I would also sit there and advocate that I think your basis is going to really jump higher with it because we're short.
[00:23:06] Speaker A: There's not enough. Not much supply out there. Yep, exactly.
[00:23:10] Speaker B: So everything goes up and you could get rewarded. But I mean, you're taking a. So I would suggest not doing this with the entire farm's production. If this is your last bit that you're gambling with, then have some fun with it. And it could be fantastic. Some really aggressive targets. Not a terrible strategy. But we are nearing the window, depending on the weather that we get, where canola can fall flat on its face. And you might not see these highs again until maybe next spring.
[00:23:40] Speaker A: Someone asked me in the industry, an industry person asked me today, you know, what's left out there for Canola to market? And I was like, if it went to 1150 and then went to 15, 1550 or 16 in your backyard, like, there's nothing left. Like, I know Steve down the road here, he's got Canola. He always does. You know, he's gonna have probably 50,000 bushels like your normal. The normal culprits out there are gonna have. Someone's gonna carry over a million tons some way somehow.
[00:24:09] Speaker B: Right? So that's right.
[00:24:10] Speaker A: You know, it's the. It's the. Steve's out there.
[00:24:13] Speaker B: Yep.
[00:24:13] Speaker A: It's tight. You've been talking, you've talked on the show months ago about export pace, crush pace, and here we are, we're down to that gap between old crop, new crop. Buyers are going to have to get creative. And we'll see in the month of May here. Could be a interesting time for some.
[00:24:32] Speaker B: Old crop, I would add. Keep in mind that, you know, Europe is going to be harvesting their crop in not too long. Right. And the market's not going to wait for that crop to start coming off. The market is going to once they feel they have it made and there's limited ability to destroy it that is going to start to put a lid on your market as well. So you still have the politics at play to a certain degree as well. But yeah, like you're saying, there's, there's going to be a switch where you now flip to what does the weather look like and what does production look like for next year. And those crush plants could idle back a little bit and slow down some of their utilization and all of a sudden they start to feather that throttle a little bit. So you can't just sit back and say this thing's going to the moon. Pick your price. No matter what you do right now, it's way better than you thought you were going to get six weeks ago. So it's a win. Right.
[00:25:29] Speaker A: So canola futures as of recording, I've pulled back here a little bit.
See, I'm getting a text message as we're recording saying EPA announcement delayed soy veg oil canola down sharply. Okay. That crude was down as well in there, but futures have pulled back. Let's call 10 bucks a ton.
Are you selling all your 25 crop or what are you thinking on the pullback here?
[00:25:57] Speaker B: I actually, I like it. I think it adds a little bit of strength. The November chart's a little bit different than the July chart. It didn't really poke above kind of like the July futures did. So this pullback actually allows for, in my opinion, a bit of a healthy bump on the chart to allow us to get up to my, my goal is to get up to that 680 mark a ton somewhere in that range and, and make a bunch of sales there. So to me, I took profit on a trade on July futures here last week with this drop. I'm, I'm thinking I'm going to jump in on another long position. But now off the November futures and just traded. I think I'm going to try for a 640 entry and see what happens there. So there's $40 a ton, I think worth of potential upside there. And this EPA announcement that you just referenced, you know, yesterday the news was that he was going to go ahead with ethanol 15 and have it being sold through the summer and that created soybean oil to jump. I think he's kicking the idea around and where there's smoke, there's fire. So you'll get that upside tick. It's just the, the little drop just allows you an entry.
[00:26:59] Speaker A: I don't think Finn's been on the show since Christmas time, so publicity. Yep. Yeah. And he's got his little John Deere 7720, which is. That's good product placement, my friend. That is good product placement. It's a good combine. Oh, there he goes.
[00:27:14] Speaker B: Well done. Yeah. Less fun up here.
[00:27:17] Speaker A: A healthy market needs to have those little pullbacks. Right? A healthy rally needs to have these pullbacks. So I think the EPA stuff, definitely the run in soybean oil, all that's really helped the last number of weeks here. But I don't see anything, knock on wood, damaging for this week. So I'm kind of with you here on, you know, buy the dip, sell the rip, as they say, Kyle.
[00:27:43] Speaker B: So, no, I'd like that one.
[00:27:45] Speaker A: The.
You know what? That's a T shirt idea. That's a T shirt idea right there. I got to get that on. Yvonne's on her plate. All right. I was going to add here canola. I got, I think, acres year over year, still down, but I got a little. I had a little. Little. Few farmers just adding a little quarter to here at the end. So we'll see what that does to the acreage number. But nothing alarming, just.
Yeah. Okay, let's talk wheat. Like, wtf? What? The futures wheat market? Like, yeah, like it's. It's painful right now. And a time of year where, I don't know, it's usually not painful in the spring, but what do you see? And I know you did a bit of analysis on the week chart here this week.
[00:28:36] Speaker B: Yeah, Yesterday I was looking at that because I'm in a similar boat. I've. I've been waiting for this spring rally to kind of kick off. And. And it's an annual thing. We get it almost every year. Actually. I went back to. Where did I go back to 2014. I could have gone further. I just stopped because I was like, well, what's the point?
But going back all the way to 2014, we had a rally every single spring. Right. So 100% of the time, does that mean we're due? I don't know. But overall, the other thing that I look for.
[00:29:09] Speaker A: We're due not to get one. Is that what you said? No. Yeah. The odds play.
[00:29:13] Speaker B: The odds are the odds, you know, But I mean, the Big Short, which is one of my favorite movies, talks about the Hot Hand fallacy. And so we're going to disregard that. There's. That doesn't play into it here. But what I did do is I went back and I looked at, you know, when did these rallies start? Right. What was the starting point? Because, I mean, essentially, that's what we're all sitting here waiting for is when is this thing going to kick off? And so in, you know, I'll just quickly rattle through the dates, but 2024, April 18, 23, it started May 4, 2022, it started May 6, 2021, it was April 7, 2020, April 29.
In 19, it was May 14 and 18, it was May 15.
[00:29:55] Speaker A: Most of that's coming up like those dates are coming up.
[00:29:58] Speaker B: Yeah, we're, we're dead in the middle of it. And what I would point out that whether it's, you know, if you're a trader, if you, if you, if you have positions on, or if you're farming and you're looking at this market and saying what the heck, what's going on, especially this week, what you're seeing in the market is the end of the May expiry or the May contract expires here. It's common for a market to fall flat on its face as it transitions to the next month and then it recovers.
[00:30:28] Speaker A: Yeah, the month, the quarter. Yeah. The end of the quarters are usually rough too.
[00:30:32] Speaker B: Yeah. And so I'm not at all surprised by this. I think that you could get into next week, which fits the narrative quite nicely as far as when a rally tends to start. And you could see it, there's still some weather problems out there. You got some frost events over in Russia. You got some problems with drought over in China being mentioned in the headlines. Ukraine's not getting so much rain and we kill a crop once or twice a year. The other stuff that I, when I put all of the rallies together as far as the distance that they traveled, if I take out 20, 22, because that year, Russia, Ukraine, war, a little bit unfair maybe to throw that in there, but your average over a decade is $1.10 a bushel. So we're sitting. Okay. There's going to be, I still think there's some better opportunities to sell out there. I don't think we need to panic. And to me, when I look at, I watched the July Kansas futures a little bit more right now than the Minneapolis, just because I'm not sure what's going to happen with Minneapolis here and the Kansas chart, you know, I see that bottom kind of there's support that comes in at 520, which is about a dime away. Fits nicely with the end of the May contract. And I think that while the market's down in the, in the toilet here, if you do have old crop wheat, maybe look for some better basis Levels, you're not going to get it on the new crop stuff.
[00:31:50] Speaker A: But the basis on new crop is it wasn't great before and then the Canadian dollars held on here. So it's just brutal.
[00:32:00] Speaker B: That's right, yeah. So I do think that, you know, the opportunities are going to be there. Guys, we're just going to. Fortunately, guys are busy seating so maybe they're not, they're not feeling the heat of this as much as we are.
[00:32:12] Speaker A: And I think that, I think the wheat rally could be a little bit, little bit delayed this year. Like you mentioned, like May 12th or 15th as dates. Like, I think that could be a little bit more realistic. What do you have to say about the wheat market? Will, any comments? Oh, okay. Yep.
So I think it could be a little bit delayed and we gotta get, you gotta get to that. I don't think anyone's concerned about weather in North America the first week or two of May. After that though, we'll, we'll see, right. So I don't know. Hopefully there's something else that surprises me, but I'm sure it'll be something I told some of my old colleagues. I said when I get down, down in the dumps like this in a market, it usually means it's getting to the bottom and we got a recovery. So I told, I texted a group like, I don't know, three or four weeks ago saying I'm worried about wheat. And then it rallied right after that. So I texted them again yesterday. I'm like, I'm worried about wheat. And they're like, are you? I'm like, well, I'm just trying to rally the darn thing.
[00:33:18] Speaker B: Just trying to get, you know, from. For what it's worth, I do think that the wheat market here, this does set up. You've looked at a bunch of long term weather outlooks as well. And I do think this does set up as one of those kind of rare years that happens 10 to 20% of the time where you could get a little bit of a May rally, it could come back and then that Northern plains spring wheat rally could come in in July. So, you know, I do think there's the opportunity for that. I would still be aggressive with sales in a May rally because that summer rally on spring wheat is fickle. You don't know if that one's going to come. But there's, there's a lot of different.
[00:34:01] Speaker A: The dome of doom.
[00:34:03] Speaker B: Dome of Doom, Yeah.
[00:34:05] Speaker A: The heat dome of dome to show up. So, yeah, Good stuff. Kyle, will it. Did you have Anything to add today?
You want to sing a song with us?
[00:34:13] Speaker B: Better.
[00:34:15] Speaker A: All right.
Yeah. I thought you might want to sing a song.
So, Kyle, that's about all I had in my list today. Is there any market or anything we're missing that you wanted to cover?
[00:34:26] Speaker B: I don't think so. I think right now, you know, you're getting some of those seasonal highs on, like, I think the barley 1. Pay attention to that because that does have the ability. If you get some decent moisture coming in, you could see that cool off once seeding's done.
So that might be a bit of an opportunity to at least start, especially for new crop sales. So there's some action items out there. And then with canola, obviously, we just had, in my opinion, an action item with it hitting 700, so hopefully some sales were made there. But if you didn't, I don't think you've necessarily hurt yourself. It's just you're playing with fire a little bit. The longer you wait and the longer you push it into May, and then wheat's just a. It's painful right now.
It's frustrating everybody. But I think patience with that market has a strong history of telling us it's going to pay off. So.
[00:35:17] Speaker A: Yeah, I'm just.
[00:35:19] Speaker B: Hang tight.
[00:35:19] Speaker A: Yeah, I'm with you there. My last thing. Kyle, I owe you a round of golf, and I just got to show you this real quick. I'm on the road to recovery.
Oh, hang on, Willa. I want to show this to Kyle.
So I got tendonitis and so my golf swing, I got something to blame it on this year, but I'm. I'm trying to. I got acupuncture yesterday, man. I owe you some golf. I'm on the road to recovery, and we'll make sure we get that round in here before summer. Yeah, before it gets too. Don't get busy.
[00:35:49] Speaker B: Don't get too healed up because I want to win, so.
[00:35:52] Speaker A: Well, I got all the excuses now, so. Oh, I'm all good. Yeah. Oh, flared up. Flared up on the ninth hole or whatever. Yeah.
[00:36:00] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:36:01] Speaker A: All right, man. Thanks for joining me and.
Yeah, we'll stay in touch, dude.
[00:36:05] Speaker B: You bet. Have a good day. Okay, guys.
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