Episode 129

July 28, 2026

00:33:51

Grain Markets Flushed. What Should Farmers Do Now?

Hosted by

Ryan Denis
Grain Markets Flushed. What Should Farmers Do Now?
What the Futures!
Grain Markets Flushed. What Should Farmers Do Now?

Jul 28 2026 | 00:33:51

/

Show Notes

On this episode of Cuppa Coffee from What the Futures, Ryan Denis and Brian Comeault break down the grain-market pullback and the marketing decisions farmers face before harvest. They cover canola prices, wheat hedging, malt barley demand, oats, yellow peas, crop conditions, market carry and strategies for protecting a price floor while retaining upside.

Brownlee’s Ag Tech:
https://www.brownlees.ca

LINKS & RESOURCES

► Subscribe to What the Futures on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/@whatthefutures

► What the Futures Podcast:
https://www.whatthefuturespodcast.ca/

► Listen to What the Futures:
https://what-the-futures.castos.com/

► Ryan Denis:
https://www.ryandenis.ca/

► Ryan Denis on LinkedIn:
https://ca.linkedin.com/in/ryan-denis-143322121

► John Deere Canada:
https://www.deere.ca/en/agriculture/

Chapters

  • (00:00:00) - Market update & overnight selloff
  • (00:02:00) - US crop conditions
  • (00:04:00) - Protein premiums
  • (00:05:00) - Australia, India & global weather
  • (00:06:30) - Why grain markets sold off
  • (00:07:45) - Is this the top for canola?
  • (00:10:20) - Russia, Ukraine & wheat
  • (00:12:00) - Best wheat hedging strategies
  • (00:14:20) - Why China’s barley demand matters
  • (00:16:20) - Should you price malt barley?
  • (00:19:20) - Oat market outlook
  • (00:21:40) - Yellow pea forecast
  • (00:24:20) - Biofuel policy & canola demand
  • (00:25:40) - Grain options vs brokerage accounts
  • (00:28:00) - Should you store grain after harvest?
  • (00:30:40) - Future of Cup of Coffee
  • (00:32:00) - Marketing strategies before harvest
  • (00:33:00) - Sponsor
View Full Transcript

Episode Transcript

[00:00:00] Speaker A: All right, markets this morning, obviously we got flushed yesterday and continuing on here just a little bit this morning. Canola down, down the most here. Canola and bean oil down about a percent. But canola's down 640 a ton, trading at 7.84.80. Soybeans only, down half a penny at 12, 13. Bean oil down a full percent here, 6,873. That's what I wrote down there. Corn market up 5 cents at 456. Kansas wheat down a penny $7.28. Spring wheat down 5 cents at 7.01. We've got the Canadian dollar trading at 7,106. And West Texas down a buck 20 a barrel here at 81.43. We'll see if Brian has some insights for us on what is going on here with that big flush in the markets. Now I've got Summerfield urea. Pardon me, I don't want to say this number out loud because it's up about a hundred dollars a ton from the values we saw just a few weeks ago. But I'm hearing mid eights 850, hearing some 875 for Summerfield Urea. Hopefully you can find something lower than that. But with the war getting fired up a couple of weeks ago, fuel prices climbed and fertilizer urea values climbed as well. So there we go from a headlines perspective here. And I'm going to bring Brian in because there may be extra things to cover off here that I'm missing. Let's see if we can find him here. Brian, welcome to the show here. I was going to do headlines, but there's quite a bit to cover so I thought I'd bring you in a little earlier today. [00:01:45] Speaker B: Thanks, Ryan. Good morning. [00:01:47] Speaker A: And as I said, you may have heard this backstage, but if my Internet completely fails me once again, the show is yours, Dude, I will be back, but the show is yours. All right. [00:01:58] Speaker B: No pressure. Yep. [00:01:59] Speaker A: All right, so for headlines this morning we have corn US corn. It came in 63% good to excellent. A little bit of a miss by the trade. I think they were at 65% good to excellent. Brian, is that. Am I on to something on that one? [00:02:14] Speaker B: Yep, I think there was a bit of a surprise there. I think you can see that in the market with that, you know, nickel and three quarter or six cents up in the market today. So yeah, I think that's one of the reasons why corn is the one of the only. Well, I shouldn't say the only, but the stronger of the grains. This morning. [00:02:31] Speaker A: Soybean 63% good to excellent. Last year that crop at this time of the year was at 70%. But the trade was a little closer on that one, I think. Hey, within a percent or so. [00:02:43] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, the, the variability too hasn't been as, as bad. So the, you know, there were big changes in the corn in some states and a little bit more even of changes in the, in the soybean side. So yeah, less volatility I guess in [00:02:59] Speaker A: the crop ratings and then a little strangely here because I've got conflicting information. I've got North Dakota, South Dakota, like heating up, burning up. You know, know, things not looking good. But then spring wheat comes in 53% good to, to excellent. That is actually better than the crop was looking at this time last year. Anything that you see in, in spring wheat, Brian? [00:03:23] Speaker B: But you know, we saw a big improvement in the, in the state of Montana. And you know, I think the, there was some, perhaps some small concerns in North Dakota, but again, you know, they had a good moisture profile there already. So the damage was not, not as widespread, but where we saw big condition upgrades was in, was in Montana this week. [00:03:44] Speaker A: All right, fair enough, fair enough. Winter wheat 81% harvested. And I think the trade was just a little interested that it kind of fell behind pace the trade thought it was going to be a bit more advanced on that winter wheat harvest. So Brian, I didn't ask you this before we hit the button to get going, but protein, I, I'm starting to hear of some protein premiums out there and put premiums in quotations. I have not looked at the winter wheat crop to see how protein is, is hanging on. I thought a small crop might lead to higher protein, but. And maybe they're not correlated right now. But anything protein wise that you're seeing or winter wheat harvest wise, the Wheat [00:04:20] Speaker B: Associates reports are showing good protein, you know, not exceptionally, exceptionally high, but it isn't necessarily causing the market or the basis I should say to react. So there is still some pretty decent premium I think in the. Let me just see here. Kansas749, you know, so there's a premium right now to Kansas wheat over, you know, Minneapolis. Yeah. And it's been like that for a while. So I think if anything that's reflecting, you know, the, the short crop in, in Kansas. Well, and the whole mid US Midwest. [00:04:52] Speaker A: Fair enough for sure. All right, moving on from US Crop conditions, we've got two flash sales of soybeans out of the US Yesterday, one to an unknown destination and one to China. We also have Australia. Crop prospects improving from what I can see on wheat and lentils. That's kind of the latest out of Australia. I've had that question come in here over the last couple days. How are those crops looking? Sounds like they're doing okay. India, monsoon season. The rainfall started to stall here in July, so trade is keeping a very close eye on that one. Of course, super El Nino events tend to lead to drier conditions in Australia and India. Not so much the case in Australia yet, but India starting to maybe see some of those implications here. I've got a couple of things out of oil world this morning. Again, they just note the rise in canola exports from Canada. Just a heck of a recovery. It continues to be strong here in June, strong in July. We are doing a great job of exporting Canadian canola. So that's a good thing, helping our price. And then just a little, Just a little extra in there. The European rapeseed crop suffering a little bit of a decline here. Of course, wildfires rage in. In France and in Spain. Lots of talk around the French corn crop, you know, suffering here towards the tail end of that production cycle. And here we go. Rapeseed also being impacted just a little bit. It's just a slight decline. So, Brian, we had a whole market, you know, liquidation yesterday, including cattle, liquidated as well. Now, was this war stuff, was it weather, was it both? Or was it something else that I'm completely missing this morning? [00:06:41] Speaker B: Yeah, I think the catalyst was largely the cease, you know, the ceasefire, if that's what you want to call it, the stall or the less bombings, conflict, the less bombings. And, you know, we've seen now that. That these announcements mean very little. But what I think it did was it gave the market an excuse to take profits, to take some risk off the table. That's always important. You know, in these markets. We always, you know, kind of talk about stairs up, elevator down. And that's what we did see over the last last couple of days. Hard to quantify this exactly. But this a big earnings week for the stock markets. You know, 25% of the S&P 500 is reporting this week. And there could be some traders that are again taking profits in order to give themselves some, you know, some opportunity in. In earnings week. [00:07:28] Speaker A: All right, fair enough. When you. When you look at the decline yesterday. And we did have a question come in here. I'll see if I can find it. We have a big list today, Brian, so I'll dive into a couple of. But we did Get a question here about, you know, Canola's been hit a bottom last December. It's a roller coaster that it's been on since. Could this be the high for the year? Now, let's say we're in 2026, because we are, but, you know, are we aiming for a high in this window here, you know, over the last couple days? Could that be possible? That's what Robert is asking. [00:08:05] Speaker B: I think it depends on how you're looking at it. Is it a. Is it probably a high or is it more likely a high, you know, before harvest? You know, yes, the likelihood of that is higher. But as you mentioned, you know, the exports of Canola, the crush in Canola has been really strong. That's going to shrink the balance sheet for this 2025-2026 crop year, and then that's going to carry over into 27. So if we see, you know, similar demand coming out of harvest here, like the, you know, the, the ending stocks, projections for the end of 2020 crop year 20, 26, 27 could be significantly tighter. And so as we move through spring next year and the supplies dwindle, that could, you know, that could potentially give us new highs for this year. But, yeah, that's a long wait. [00:08:52] Speaker A: Yeah. And, and like, when I look back, you know, I often see a high associated with May, June, July, like that time frame, you can find a, a high. But I'd still say that, you know, the crop prospects for Canada, until we start to get some harvest data, there's some unknowns there. You know, demand is strong. We'll see here how the market responds over the next couple days. Again, you get a big flush, a big pullback. Is this a buying opportunity or, you know, is this a slight setback before we go and make a new high? You can even find examples. And I'm sure you've seen these too, Brian, where know, Canola goes on a nice little run into the September long weekend. Like we've seen that in the past as well. And maybe with some delayed crops here for a lot of the prairies, a little bit more strength could, could occur. Now, you know, Robert, I, I would also just come down to, you know, the easy answer here as well is, you know, if you like these values, they're highly profitable. You know, don't be a stranger. If you have a mechanism to, and I know you do, to unlock, you know, some upside, but protect a floor, you can always consider that. I don't think that's a bad idea. As we sit here towards the tail end of July. All right, so Brian, let's, let's start ripping through some of these questions here. Unless there was anything else news related that I'm, that I missed. I think we covered most of it, but Egg in motion is. It was a bit of a, it was a fun week. It was a Gong show, but I'm a little behind. So anything else that I'm missing? [00:10:27] Speaker B: I would say an important one to watch is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. That, that was a big driver of week last week. Zelensky is meeting with Trump, I think this week sometime. And so they're, you know, there's, I don't know if risk is the right word, but there's some potential for de escalation and that might, you know, affect our wheat prices. [00:10:45] Speaker A: That'd be the one I'd, I'd add on Sunday. I'm watching like many of this vessel full of corn, I think, bound for Turkey. I'm watching this thing sink. Yeah. And I'm thinking, oh, well, here we go. Like, this is, you know, the market's really getting going to get alarmed about this and rally. And then of course, we have the big flush happen after that. So. But yeah, that's a big one, that de escalation, you know, when it comes to wheat prospects around the world. I know that it's tightening up. We don't have the crops in 26 that we had in 2025, but yet those sharp rallies, you know, you kind of need a disruption in your major wheat exporters. I think Russia is number one. I think I read this morning Ukraine's number five or number six, you know, if you can disrupt the export side, then maybe that provides more strength. But if you take that storyline away, I don't know, like, I'm not scary, you know, bearish by any means. But I also wonder what it would take to rally this thing because the wheat markets get darn quiet after harvest, if we have a normal harvest. So. Yeah, yeah, all right. On that thread, Jordan comes in and he says, when it comes to Minneapolis wheat, what do you like to use in your brokerage account for hedging or what options do you like to use? He also mentioned, you know, do I, do you go inside to Kansas or Chicago wheat because of the, the thin liquidity there in Minneapolis. But br, what do you like when it comes to hedging wheat inside a brokerage account? [00:12:24] Speaker B: I mean, it's obviously the straight up hedge would be if you wanted to sell and take, you know, and lock in some profits on the futures side, you know, going short in a, in a futures account is the, is a good way to do that because it does leave you open to take advantage of basis specials and things like that with your grain company. And they tend to throw those basis specials out, you know, long after they would have locked in basis on, you know, on, on a futures first or whatever they're called at the elevators. Right. So that's a, you know, that comes with, you know, the potential though, for margin calls. But if that's, you know, there's a trade off there, I guess a little bit. Minneapolis wheat options are, are terrible. I think if you're going to go into the options market, then I actually think Kansas would probably be a better, a better place to go. Hedge. It's not perfect hedge, of course, because the two are not perfectly correlated. In fact, there's a premium right now to Kansas. So again, if you really wanted to get a perfect hedge using options, you could spread the Minneapolis and Kansas to lock in the spread there and then, you know, use an option on the Kansas, which might get you the, get you that desired result you want. [00:13:31] Speaker A: I think the, the one key mechanism here is that you want to, and I've seen this before in the past, but you want to keep your, your discount, your premium schedule kind of flexible. If you can see what you have, see what, who's paying the best premiums or the, or the best discounts. If you're in that category, that can be pretty significant dollars at the end of the day. It hasn't been the last couple of years, but it certainly can wreak havoc at times. So I like keeping that open. Again, it's a fine dance between I need to move stuff off combine or at harvest and then trying to figure out the, the spreads. But just stay sharp on those. And Brian, if we keep talking here, Canola is not in the green yet, but everything else is in the green, including cattle. If we keep talking, I think we can get Canola in the green before we hit the stop button today. [00:14:23] Speaker B: All right, keep going. [00:14:24] Speaker A: Then. Greg is asking, how big of a market is malt barley from an export side? How big is the malt market versus the feed barley export program? And before we started recording, I was like, I don't really know. I find it convoluted and confusing. And you're like, ryan, I got you, I got something. So what do you got for us? [00:14:47] Speaker B: The malt market this year has been really strong. Our exports are largely malt. We've seen a big increase in malt exports, particularly to China. The export data into the end of May now has almost 1.2 million tons of malt barley going to China. We also have seen, you know, about 790,000 tons of feed go to China. Both of those are up significantly year over year for these months. We've also seen big upticks in Japan as far as both. Let's see here. They're both about equal. So that's an interesting, an interesting statistic there that they're taking just as much malt as they are feed. Usually it is a little bit more malt. We're seeing a lot of malt going to Mexico and. But, you know, year over year are malt to the US is going down. But I mean, China's the, China's the big one there. I did email you that chart, so if you want to share it, go right ahead. Go right ahead and do that. But yeah, big numbers. China's the, China's the big one. China is the big driver this year with Japan coming in solid second. [00:16:03] Speaker A: So do you think we did get asked here by, by Jack, like, where's the barley price going? You know, is there a shortage of, of barley out there? And then I have a follow up here from Edward about malt barley. Does it make sense if I have nothing sold today, should I be pricing malt barley right now? So, so Edward's asking about malt, you know, what to do for the 26 crop. And, and Jack's wondering, you know, is there a shortage out there and is there some upside? So kind of both asking a very similar question. [00:16:37] Speaker B: I think a lot of it depends. You know, there's decent acres of, of barley put in this year because of the profitability last year. A lot of it will depend now on, on yield. But yeah, the demand has been spectacular this year. Like one of the best we've seen. And again, you know, it's, it's hard to argue against that changing. Nothing fundamentally has changed in our demand structure. So it should, it should be good. I don't know if shortage is the right word though, but there we go. [00:17:04] Speaker A: Does that show up? [00:17:05] Speaker B: It did. [00:17:06] Speaker A: Oh, man. [00:17:07] Speaker B: Yeah, I did forget to change the month though. August to April, that it's actually August to May. The. [00:17:12] Speaker A: Oh, okay. [00:17:14] Speaker B: Statistics Canada is released up till May, so this is data up till May. But yeah, you can see the difference there in China is just huge. [00:17:21] Speaker A: Yeah, you bet. Okay, so, so my, my thoughts around, around, you know, like feed barley prices. I've been a fairly aggressive marketer of, of feed barley So I haven't been, you know, overly, overly bullish on the feed barley side. I think there's a lot of feed grains out there. Again, domestically, I think there's a lot of feed type stuff out there. On the malt side I've been very quite patient because like we started in the high fives here in Alberta at the domestic maltsters and that just didn't, didn't like you get forced though, you have to do something to lock in a contract which is a little unfortunate that you have to commit to something even though you don't agree with the price. But anyways, maybe that'll be for another episode one day. But I've been patient and I think we've been rewarded about $0.70 of, of upside here with that patience. So if I was doing anything on malt right now, it certainly still need an act of God because price wise I, I'm pretty friendly towards malt at, at this time and quality. If you have a miss, it could be painful, right. If you have to get out of that darn thing. So. Yeah, yeah. [00:18:34] Speaker B: The way I always look at it is, you know, if, if prices are profitable and they hit a target that you made at some point pre, you know, preceding and stuff like that, you know, marketing is not all or nothing. You're not making one decision for the entire crop at one time. So you're going to be either leaning into, you know, potential upside afterwards or downside. Neither of those is really, you know, feels optimal because you, you know, but you'll never, you're never going to hit the high with everything. So if it's profitable and it's good time to start marketing, that's generally what we advocate for before, before harvest because a lot of times the prices too, you know, they take, you know, months after harvest to get back to a place that looks good. Harvest is always the big, the big flush of supply. [00:19:17] Speaker A: Yeah, for sure. All right, let's stay on cereals here before we switch over to some pulses. But Ryan was asking about oats. With the drowned out acres in the east, wouldn't you think oats would get over the four dollar mark? Brian, I'll, I'll kick it over to you to start off with here and on oats, is there any, any support coming to that price? I, I've checked a few things out here lately. It looks like price is certainly not declining at this time. But any thoughts around the oat markets? [00:19:47] Speaker B: Yeah, I think that there's some upside, particularly later in this, in this crop year. I You know, the, the northeast part of Saskatchewan is under stress. There's lots of oats planted there. Southern Manitoba, though, is in pretty good shape. There's lots there as well. And, you know, living in southern Manitoba are, you know, doing the 120 kilometer an hour, you know, field. Field assessments. They do look. They do look pretty good. So I think it's a bit of a balance between the two and then, you know, the, the demand needs to come in. So again, you know, North Dakota, Minnesota and the US Is, is in pretty good shape as well. And so, you know, most of our old exports head south. So it's, you know, there's a bit of a. You got to look at the US Side of things. Yeah. [00:20:31] Speaker A: And I'd also add, you know, the Peace region, a big old growing area for the prairies. And yeah, you know, the crops look quite fine there as well. Now, Ryan, I would say that in the Saskatoon region, we did see oats trade. I want to say the 430A bushel. 435 bushel. 435A bushel, something in there for about around that December time frame. And I know that is also available in central Alberta. So again, you know, maybe it's. It's making its way there and we are starting to see a little bit of strength come across. But I would certainly put a 425 to 435 for that, you know, December, maybe January timeframe is as being available. Alrighty. [00:21:17] Speaker B: Yeah, that's pretty good price. [00:21:19] Speaker A: Yeah. Yeah. Especially if you can get some decent yield out of them. There's some decent margin there. All right, just a couple more. I know we're over time today, guys, but this is going to be our last cup of coffee, the live show, for quite some time here. And I'll talk about that a bit at the end. Just a couple more to go, though, Brian. We'll switch gears now to yellow peas. Dave is asking, do you think the yellow pea price will go higher than $8.50 a bushel and when. If you could give us the date, the time and where the sun will be in the sky at. [00:21:52] Speaker B: Yeah, perfect. Let's say November 15th. The yellow pea market has been depressed because of the supplies. I think there is a generally big supply still coming, but, you know, the markets again, you know, never stay where they are all the time. I do think we'll see lower nines, maybe even mid nines at some point, and that'll be good. And I think, Yeah, I think, as you were mentioning before about the India Monsoon. If we do see some deficiency there, you know, the. That market might open up a little bit and they may, you know, take some. Try to get some product shored up before. Before they're before their harvest just to make sure they have enough supply. They have been getting a lot from Russia, though. So that's, you know, one area that we. That we have to watch, which there's not a lot of transparency around yellow peas in Russia or anything in Russia at this point. So that's our. That's our competitor. [00:22:50] Speaker A: I would also say, to add to that, Dave is so one of my, like, big learnings from crop marketing over the last, like, 10 or 15 years is that for a long time, my first yellow P sales were my worst sales. The price would come out like January, I'd sell something, and then by the time we got to the summer, you know, the price would climb quite substantially in most cases. I've been a pretty patient, very patient yellow P marketer as of now. I think the interesting thing is the demand from China, in India, if they are happening at the same time this fall, that that would be an important thing. And I don't think line companies have great coverage on their cars yet that will switch at some point where they need it and then they don't. So it's a fine line. But opportunity here, in my opinion, will exist here for, you know, some off combine P movement, and then we'll go from there on. A lot of our specialty crops that have carryover. If you have less acres planted, you know, patience is, I think, just an important thing if you can manage cash flow and stay patient and let some of the specialty crop prices work higher into the winter. Again, there's no guarantees, but that could be a likely scenario for us. So I think you'll get a shot at some off combine stuff, and then patience will be important after that. All right, just a couple more here for you, Brian. You know, we talked about this a lot, but Cam's asking about the US Biofuel programs and the effect on our canola price. You know, I would say if maybe just one thing, Brian, that stands out there today about that. That impact. I don't think I won't get you to predict canola price after that. [00:24:42] Speaker B: No, I think it's positive, Net positive. I think the, you know, the. All the speculation around what the targets are going to be is worked through. You know, although, you know, you know, Trump was threatening some more tariffs and all that kind of stuff. Maybe it's because of wildfires or whatever. It is, but, you know, canola oil was left off of that tariff list. I think that's, that's good. You know, they, they still need a lot of, of vegetable oil. And you know, their own soybean S and D is also shrinking. So that's, and, you know, their crush capacity isn't, isn't rising and there's nothing really on the horizon that's going to increase their crush capacity. So they're. If the demand for vegetable oil continues to go up, they're going to need to import it. [00:25:24] Speaker A: We have a good policy in place right now. As long as that policy remains that, that equal strength for, for canola and the demand for canola oil, again, the stroke of a pen can change that. But for now it's positive. It's a good thing. It's very promising. So, so we'll go, we'll leave it at that for today. Jason's asking, you know, he's used Cargill and his own broker to execute strategies. And, and he just noticed that at Cargill, it's a bit more of a take it or leave it when it comes to the cost of a put or a call. Like, it's just, here you go. And with his broker, he can negotiate and put in an order and let the market kind of come to him a little bit. Brian, you've done, you were the guy at Cargill for this stuff, but any comments around that? [00:26:19] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean, you're always going to get better pricing with a broker. You know, they're, they're trading right at the market. The, the brokers themselves aren't looking for any extra, you know, any extra juice out of the, out of the execution price. So, you know, it is, you know, kind of what you get is what you get on the brokerage side, whereas the, you know, the OTC market is, it's a little more opaque, you know, opaque, I guess, is, you know, and, but there is some benefits, right? You can, you can execute exact numbers. You know, if you want to do a put at, you know, $879.40, you can do it. You can put that in. Whereas the broker, you're kind of, you know, limited to, you know, five or $10 spreads. Also, you know, you don't have to pay anything to the grain companies ahead of time. So it can look cash flow friendly and that kind of thing. [00:27:12] Speaker A: Yeah. No mar. No upfront margin cost. Yep. [00:27:15] Speaker B: No upfront margin cost. Again, though, you know, the basis comes into play if you, if you do, you know, a put option with an elevator Company, they're going to want you to lock in the basis, you know, probably somewhere around six weeks before the delivery period. So that limits, you know, some of the, some of the special basis that can come out in those last six weeks. [00:27:35] Speaker A: Yeah, fair enough. [00:27:36] Speaker B: Everything has a trade off pros and cons. [00:27:39] Speaker A: And I certainly, if you don't have a brokerage account, I certainly would encourage you though to not just Cargill but Bunge as well. Some of the other companies that have tools like it just changes your crop marketing and unlocks some really good opportunity for you. So certainly don't be a stranger there. And one last one for you from Curtis. He's just talking about holding physical grain here from November to March, November delivery instead pushing it over to March delivery. Just what factors do you consider when making this decision? And he does mention balance outstanding on lines of credit. Credit and interest rates and things like that. But Brian, any, anything else, you know, when you carry grain forward that you're looking at here for, for gains or a percentage gain. [00:28:29] Speaker B: Yep. I think, you know, you and I, Ryan, before we, we got on here, we talked about interest rates and if, you know, if there is borrowing, you know, happening to fund, you know, crop inputs or whatever it is, you know, the interest rates are not low anymore. So there is a good, a good argument to make for getting cash flow earlier in the year. If you don't use leverage or any kind of borrowing in your farm operation, then it makes a lot more sense to hold it. And I think a lot of that has to do with basis levels. They're always terrible in fall and they get better as the year goes on. That's probably your biggest opportunity if you're not trying to predict futures values. The other one is carry in the market. There was, and let me take a look now. But there's, you know, there is some carry in the Canola market. It used to be a lot larger. There's definitely some carry in the spring wheat market. So you know, you can get some extra juice out of, out of hedging on further out months than in, in situations where there is market carry. [00:29:31] Speaker A: Yeah, and I'm going to just go down like a simple path of, you know, logistics as well and weather. When can you get the work done? You know, does that play a factor? And a lot of farms I talk to now, you know, consistent delivery at certain times of the year is almost trumps the price, especially if you have a other mechanism to participate. So there's that and then just the quality, keeping the quality of that Grain. I met a farmer at Egg in Motion last week that unfortunately lost about 20,000 bushels of canola that heated on him. And well, we all know that pain, especially as it trades around 18 bucks. So. Well, Brian, that's it for questions this week. I wanted to get them all tidied up here as cup of coffee goes dark here for the next while. And you know, I asked folks, you know, what do they like about cup of coffee the last two weeks? And they said they love the short segment, the 20 minutes now we're going along here today. But, and they love that, you know, the questions are pretty current and the guests are, are kind of answering rapid fire as we go. So I, I totally understand that folks, and I appreciate the comments, but I am beginning a little bit of a recalibration here. 12 weeks of, of sorting some, some different things out for the what the Futures podcast. So this is just the beginning of other changes coming down the pipeline. Now again, it's been a fun show and it's been great to put on. I am doing the content continues like the content always continues. I'm always putting stuff together and putting stuff out and I am launching for now here, just a private podcast feed called what the Futures Insiders. And so it's not automated yet. You do have to email me, Ryan, with the futurespodcast CA to get that podcast. It's not going to be a live 20 minutes, but it is going to be short content and you know, more popping content. Just something easy to consume. So there's that in. In the meantime, if you email me, then you'll get the welcome email and then you'll start to get those in your podcast feed. Wherever, if it's Apple, Spotify, wherever it is, you will start to see those appear in those spots. All right, so, so let me, yeah, hit me up with an email if you want to join the what the Future Insiders and of course Lunchbox crew. The content continues as per usual and we do have a few spots open. You can check that out at ryandinney ca Last thing I'll leave you here with some insights is just, you know, setting floors. If you want to set floors and leave Upside open. I know, Brian, you're a big fan of this as well. You know, setting a worst case scenario, leaving some exposure to the upside. There's some fun strategies that you can execute on your farm here this summer and have some fun with it. So Brian, anything else on the setting the floors and creating upside opportunity? [00:32:35] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean, you know, we often talk about weakness into harvest. And that gives an opportunity, too, to use strategies that capitalize on, you know, potential gains after harvest. So, you know, particularly if you've had some, you know, done some good marketing ahead of harvest and you want to see if you can get even better. [00:32:54] Speaker A: You bet. All right, folks. Well, this week's cup of coffee is brought to you by Brownlee's Ag Tech. If you've ever wondered, is the bin full yet? Their full bin sensor 2 takes the guesswork out of filling your grain bins. Head to Brownlee's CA. That's the website www.brownlees.ca. check out the full bin sensor 2 free shipping within Canada and the U.S. all right, folks, I'm out of coffee. I'm actually legit. Well, I got one sip left. But Brian, thank you so much for being here. I think you were like the second first or second guest on cup of Coffee when we kicked this thing off at the end of January. So thanks for being here. Taking all those questions, man. 40 minutes of live content for you. Not easy to do. So I do appreciate you being here. [00:33:39] Speaker B: Thanks, Ryan. [00:33:40] Speaker A: All right, folks, I'll see you Friday on what the futures. We're going to talk harvest weather, egg and motion reflections and crop marketing for your Friday. So we'll see you then. Thank you so much.

Other Episodes