The Canola Market Revival | Guest: Trent Klarenbach

[00:00:00] Speaker A: Folks, the Canola Market has done something here over the last couple weeks that very few were calling for. We're talking about a recovery of three to four dollars a bushel, raising the price back from the dead when very few, very few of you believed in this, that this could happen. There's one person that stands out to me that stuck to their research analysis convictions on this Canola market has paid huge dividends to their subscriber base in a space where, face it, it's a small community, tight knit community in Western Canada, the ag community, that is. It's hard to stand alone sometimes. But Trent did. I want to talk to him about his stick to it attitude and what he saw in the Canola market that got us back to where we're at this week. Let's get into episode 72. Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast where we break down complex market trends into simple, actionable advice. It's your quick guide to better farming decisions. All right, folks, welcome into episode 72 here of the what the Futures podcast, of course, recorded in the UPL studio each and every week. And don't forget, the deadline is approaching. We are giving away 80 acres of aikito. We're actually picking two winners here. So 80 acres each, two flats of beer from the what the Futures Podcast, that contest. We're going to pick some winners here at the end of the month. So head over to Instagram, Facebook X. You can find it on there. It's easy. All you have to do is like the post say, where you farm. If you add a friend, you get an extra entry. But hey, someone. Well, a couple of you are going to win some product here to spray on your spring wheat. Durham barley. Yeah, that's what you can use a keto for. Anyways, welcome into the episode, folks. My wife said this hat was a bit of a reach for me, but I thought the blue in the hat, the light blue, the logo, light blue around the logo here. I thought it would play out okay, but maybe a bit of a stretch, but you can see this beautiful hat I got in St. Paul, Minnesota last week. Check it out on the YouTube channel. All right, folks, I said it in the, in the intro here. The, the, you know, the, the lead. Trying to get you warmed up for this episode, but this Canola market, people didn't believe. I also at times didn't believe in this recovery. And yet people did. Trent Klarenbach did. A few people did, but Trent, I get Trent's research. I get to experience it each and every day. And I thought, why not talk about that? Why not talk about that in a time, in a space? I hate to go down the negativity path, but. But you get a lot of farmers out there, get a lot of pressure tactics, you know, placed on them and fear and negativity. It often. It often works, right? You know, I wouldn't say special. Putting out a special is negative by any means, but that's maybe more of a false call to action out there. Specials aren't. They're not specials anymore anyways. Let's park that. But you get a lot of negativity. Even some of the consulting firms out there, I've worked for them in the past. I've, you know, sat at the table with some of them or across from them in the past. That negativity, they kind of feed off that. All right. And so this canola market, you know, Trent's going to talk about his journey here is not perfect. It's not roses. I'm not here to say that. Trent knows every market all the time. Please go listen to him. That's not what I'm trying to say. But. But he called this canola market very, very well the last number of months, and it paid dividends to his subscriber base. It paid dividends to the farmers that write that check to him to say, hey, well, I want to get your research for the year or whatever it is. It paid itself over and over again. And there were a couple people on that island and a bunch not. And maybe I was drowning or swimming somewhere in between there at times. But I think it's a cool story, and I think that in Western Canadian agriculture, it's something that we. We should talk about this stuff because we don't get to. We don't get to talk about some. Some of this positivity. Enough. All right. All right, folks, I. You guys know I love talking strategy, I love talking markets. I love talking about all these scenarios, execution, when to sell, when not sell. This, it's. It's awesome. I. Right. I love it. We spent a lot of time here the last couple months. This shows a little bit more about executing than anything. But we spent a lot of time planning, we spent a lot of time stressing about what crop to grow, what tariff. China. What's it mean to us and the crops we're growing? The US what's it mean to the crops we're growing? I want to just quickly say that there are tools out there that can help you take some of that emotion out and also add a Little bit of emotion back in. When the market goes, let's say, canola from 12 to 13, $14, what that does to your actual numbers, not something you wrote down on a piece of paper, not something in your mind, but something that you actually see evolve and change over days, weeks, months. All right, you can model this out. You can model out profits before you seed with harvest profit, all right? This platform that we use on our farm can model out different scenarios before you fire up the drill. Checking different crops, checking what different crops could yield from a margin perspective, seeing those margins change in basically real time. It's a very powerful tool that takes some of the emotion out in your planning. All right, so why it matters, harvest profit, smart, low risk, decision making before the season starts. That's why this stuff matters, all right? You can run real scenarios before ever hitting the field, all right? You can run through them to say, how does this look for us if we make these tweaks, if we make these changes, or if we stick to the plan. So it's not just about planning. It's about knowing which decisions could increase profit or protect you from a loss. So what it actually does. Adjust crop types, acreage costs, input costs, test real time price moves, all right? Budgets as well. Simulate profit potential under different scenarios. Compare margin differences between crops, run side by side. Field planning to test even rotations. Okay? So even before you turn a wheel, can change the scenarios, play around with them, see what gives you peace of mind, see what gives you more confidence, See how the markets are moving and what that does to your bottom line. Again, putting a motion back in on the canola, for example. Getting excited. You can check that out. HarvestProfit.com syncs with your John Deere Op center, integrates with your agronomic data, and hey, it's a financial tool right there for you. For more clarity in these challenging times. Check it out. HarvestProfit.com all right, folks, I've got Trent Klarenbach of Klarinbach Research joining me once again on the what the Futures podcast. Trent, welcome back to the show. [00:07:29] Speaker B: Yeah, well, thank you, Ryan. It's good to. I like our visit. It's good to chat with you and good to be back. Absolutely. [00:07:35] Speaker A: It's been a minute. I was going to look up the last time you were on the show, but it's been a little while. But I thought it would be really important to have you on the show right now because, folks, we are recording this on, you know, let's call it Wednesday, April 16, so things can change. But the Canola market is doing things here that almost felt impossible a couple weeks ago with, with tariffs from China, with everything going on, you know, from the US and, and tariffs and all that good stuff out of Trump. The market's making some, some new short term highs, challenging some highs from the year. And you haven't changed your opinion through all of this. What, what the heck is going on over there, Trent? Just sticking to your guns here and you know, here we are at some of the highest values of the year. Let's talk about that. [00:08:38] Speaker B: Yeah, well, I mean it's, I don't want to be dog. I don't try not to get dogmatic in my beliefs because usually that doesn't work too well. But this time I just felt that the way the chart patterns were showing me or what suggested to me was that we would see a rally and Canola, it's taken longer than I anticipated. You know, I've been talking about 700 level for quite a while. It hasn't happened yet. But I say today's closed around 780. So that's 680. [00:09:04] Speaker A: Yep. [00:09:05] Speaker B: Or sorry, 680. Yeah, yeah, 680. So that's right at our previous resistance. It's looks like it's, it keeps testing that 680 level. Looks like it wants to break out higher. Yeah, I just, just have a belief I guess of chart patterns and in my interpretation of them and, and I just felt that Canola's got another run in it, that whole tariff thing. You know, I didn't anticipate China to come up with that tariff. [00:09:31] Speaker A: Yeah, but neither did I. [00:09:33] Speaker B: But it wasn't on Canola Seed, you know, and I think that got lost in the mix. I think a lot of people thought, you know, we, you know, you talked on it earlier before we started recording is, you know, we like, we seem to like negativity or seem to follow negative themes and Western Canada and you know, I think I got lost that it wasn't on Canola Seed and I saw some, you know, producers were, you know, wishing or hoping or calling for, you know, some sort of support from the, the government, you know, and didn't really, I suggest in, in one form. I suggested it wasn't really prudent and wasn't necessary and you know, Canola started rising by that time. You know, the Canola prices now, you know, it, it really hasn't been affected. I don't short term effect reaction to the tariff. But you know, in the longer term it hasn't, hasn't really impacted it any, so. [00:10:26] Speaker A: Well, a couple things I'll say here is. Is, number one, we're not trying to sit here today and also, you know, say that every call is right 100% of the time. Like, Trent, you've been doing this a long time. I've done this a long time. That's not what this is about, is to, you know, focus on. On that. So I'll say that, number one. The second thing, though, is, you know, from a government support side, I'm really not educated enough to. To comment on some of this, but, you know, I. The. The market. The market is the market, and I understand that certain extremes happen, but I. I don't think we're there yet. I know you look south and you look at our media reports and the payments and potential future payments there, like, whatever. That's their thing. But for us, our storylines kind of continue. We. We. We've. No one talks about how the crop we grew last year was what, the third smallest crop in the last decade for Canola. Like, we didn't. We did not have a good growing y year last year for Canola. We had phenomenal exports. We had, you know, record crush happening every month. Even from a fundamental side, which I know is not you, but from my side on fundamentals, I was sitting here saying, geez, like, there's a few things here that are. That are okay. Like, this market is okay. Yeah. So, you know, when, Trent, when you look at the noise happening and the stuff happening around you, you made some bold statements of, hey, don't sell, or. Or, hey, you know, stop selling Canola. Like, how. How do you get to that point where you're comfortable to be like, hey, I'm. I'm gonna. I'm gonna make a bold statement here and just say, don't do this. [00:12:19] Speaker B: Yeah, it's. That's tricky because you made a point that, you know, it's not about being right and all the. All the time, which, you know, I. I'm certainly not. I make, you know, I'm certainly not. You make a lot of mistakes, but. [00:12:34] Speaker A: We wouldn't be on this podcast if we didn't make mistakes. We'd. Right, you'd be on some beach somewhere or whatever. I don't know what you're. But yeah, like, it's. Anyway, keep going. [00:12:45] Speaker B: Well, you look at this market we're in, you know, we're trying to guess the direction of the price, and I think it's the greatest game in the world, and we're competing. Look at all the different factors out there. Right. All the different, you know, fundamentals, interpretation of that. The hedge funds, the robots, the computer algorithms. It's a difficult. [00:13:07] Speaker A: Throw some AI, AI in there now. [00:13:10] Speaker B: AI in there now. I mean, it's hard to be right all the. Well, you're never going to be right all the time. But yeah, I don't know, I just had to make that statement, I guess. Quit selling canola. That's just something I believed in at that time. I believed we're is ready to break out. Got the Chinese tariff set, pulled it back down, but we're back to that level again. So, yeah, looking at enough chart patterns over the years and millions of charts and just kind of getting some, you know, some probabilities of where the price is going and sometimes you get them right and sometimes you don't. So. [00:13:41] Speaker A: Yeah, well, I talk to a lot of people in this. When I'm in a position like this. I get to chat with a lot of great people across the prairies. But your analysis and your research gave, you know, not only the farmers that subscribe to you the confidence, but also others in the space, other folks that look at markets. And I thought that was really powerful to see that come through because we get caught in this, this negativity, this negativity loophole in the prairies. We get a. Every message coming from the folks in the industry. Like it's hard to find the positivity out there, but I don't have the exact math in front of me, but a hundred percent, a $3 a bushel gain over some of these lows, maybe even $4 a bushel for some growers on old crop like that is huge, huge dollars and cents. So kudos to you. Like again, in a space where it's tough to find, you know, you paid some bills out there, Trent, and that was cool. [00:14:53] Speaker B: That's good to hear. Yeah. Hopefully. Hopefully some people took action on the idea. So how. [00:14:59] Speaker A: How do you, how do you not. Or how do you avoid the noise out there or, or the weight of it, like as part of your process? Like do you allow it in? Do you don't allow it in at all. Is there some middle ground? Like how's that work for process? [00:15:19] Speaker B: Well, my journey has been one of absolute pain and it's been, you know, it's been an interesting journey. I feel you learn a lot about yourself and you start to learn about how you react to news and your biases and I am, I'm a failure. How you pronounce it, Failable human being and susceptible to my emotions and my beliefs. I used to be. Anyone who knows me from my younger years would know that I was very strongly opinionated and the older I get, the less I know. And I'm not as strong opinionated about anything as I used to be. [00:15:59] Speaker A: It usually goes the other way. Right. Don't usually get more opinionated as you get older or stuck in your ways. [00:16:06] Speaker B: I don't know. I don't know. I, I've been, put it this way, I've been wrong enough that I, I, I don't know what I believe anymore. Right. So, yeah, a lot of my beliefs and things I felt strongly about, I don't believe anymore. So, yeah. And, and you know, it's, I guess I know myself and you know, with an ag AC background, I just need, I just try to eliminate as much noise as possible and just, and I'm start, you know, I got some faith and belief in my process now and I can, I can manage that and better than I used to be able to. And that's just what I try to do is it's, try not to get caught up in the emotional aspect of the information, the noise out there. And you know, if you go on Twitter, for example, man, that's kind of a, I love Twitter, or X it's called now. But you know, it's a bit of a cesspool through information really. It's, it's, you got to really be careful what you, what you listen to and what you give, give credit to, I guess. [00:16:58] Speaker A: Oh, 100%. Yeah, it's, there's some great things about it, but it, yeah, it gets, can get dark over there in a hurry. So. [00:17:06] Speaker B: Yeah, well, you know, bad news sells, right. And if you're a doom and gloomer, there's been a lot of paid, a lot of careers been built on guys who forecast the 2008 market crash. And we're 20, almost 20 years later and they're still paying bills with that assessment. And they've, I would say they've been wrong for, you know, so paying being negative, being a doom and gloom or pays the bills. [00:17:31] Speaker A: So you're out there doing your research. You're, you're, you know, looking at this Canola market, thinking there's one more run in it. Here it is, folks. You know, check mark. We are there right now. You know, when I look at this market today, is this, are you feeling rosy about this market, you know, over the next months, or do you feel like there's anything different that's, that's Coming down the pipeline here later on this year. [00:17:59] Speaker B: Well, you know, I don't know from a news point but you point out, you know those fundamentals which I'm, I'm aware of the overall sentiment of the sales and the lack in the short crop and whatnot and maybe the short supply. So I'm aware of that on a high level, not just a headline level. But I mean this chart is suggesting to me that we will see prices above 680 in the nearby contract. My Saskatchewan price chart suggests it's going higher. You know, I think we're making new highs in Saskatchewan which would be Alberta and Manitoba. So I mean I just have to believe that new highs lead to new highs as a trend follower. So I do think, you know, I think we get a, it's hard to believe we break out above 680 here tomorrow or this week. But I mean maybe pull back reset and maybe in the next week or two it breaks out higher and then maybe get up to the 700 level. [00:18:53] Speaker A: Right. [00:18:53] Speaker B: So yeah, it just, it seems to the rally in the grains and oil seeds has been taking longer than I anticipated. You know we talked about had similar conversation back in the fall. Yeah, Drumheller. And it just simply hasn't rally like I anticipate it will. [00:19:14] Speaker A: So would you put more weight in this rally then from a decision making standpoint? Like I know you're not out there saying sell 5%, sell 10% but because of its, you know, been a little bit slower, maybe taking a little longer to develop. Would you put even more stock into the move it's made now from a decision making standpoint or is that doesn't really come into play? [00:19:43] Speaker B: Well, I mean I feel better about the idea now that it's 680 than it was when I was at 600. Right. So it keeps testing this area's level of resistance, what I identify as resistance. And each test it weakens, it starts to exhaust the sellers at that level. You know and I forget how many tests we've had now without looking at the chart. But it's been banging up on the 680, 675 level for you know, numerous times. [00:20:08] Speaker A: Yep. [00:20:09] Speaker B: So I, I, I energy is being, being built up, the sellers are becoming exhausted and I think that must be coming to an end now. I think so. End of end of the selling. So. [00:20:23] Speaker A: Yeah, well you have to think like if you were staring down an 1150 or 12 and you got offered a 14 or 14 and a half or 15, like I would be a Seller in that environment. Right. When you. I just tell people, you know, the reminder of how that didn't feel good when it was at that level. And then you get a chance to come back and be a seller. So. [00:20:48] Speaker B: Yeah. Yeah. So like, selling at resistance is a great strategy, really. Right. You just have to be happy with that. And you know, from my own perspective, I wish I had the gains back in trading that I've given up over the years by trying to get more, get a higher price. [00:21:06] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. [00:21:07] Speaker B: And if you just take your gains and take your profits and you live, you get to live to fight another day. Yeah. [00:21:14] Speaker A: Oh, yeah. I've. That. That nickel or dime has cost me a lot of money. [00:21:20] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:21:21] Speaker A: Over the years. So. [00:21:22] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:21:23] Speaker A: We're doing a hockey playoff. Hockey pool. Sent an email yesterday and I. Sometimes I look back at the past emails that I've sent to listeners here. So I wrote this back on March 12th, and I don't know what the market was doing that day. I didn't look at the chart. But I said, don't panic. Don't take big swings. Big decisions under duress rarely pay off. Uh, remember, this is about more than today and tomorrow. Think big picture and. Cause there's a lot of talk at the time, I'm gonna switch out my acres, I'm gonna whatever. Right. The. The government stuff, the. Anyway, but I look back and the big swings under times of high stress, I really struggle, I really struggled to find, you know, the success from back then, like, where I made those decisions and that ended up being the right call. It doesn't happen that way. And you know, sometimes selling a little bit or doing a little something makes you feel a little bit better in the. In the short run, but letting things breathe, giving them time. Not always, not in every market, but in this one specifically, it just felt like, hey, we're going to give ourselves another. Another shot. So anyways, I think I maybe, um. I think we've covered that really well. I want to maybe just switch gears here a little bit. Some of the other markets have been a little quieter. Uh, the wheat market specifically is now in. It's frustrating me, so I'm going to put frustration in there for myself. But, you know, nice run up in Canola here. When you look at Chicago Wheat, Kansas Wheat, Spring Wheat, whatever you want to look at. You know what, what's your research showing you today? [00:23:10] Speaker B: Well, I'll just. I'm gonna pull up the chart. Just take a look at it here. So, yeah, like, Chicago Wheat has been banging up against that lower resistance but it wasn't breaking through or sorry lower support wasn't breaking breaking through it and now it's. I, I just, I think we're, I think that rally that I've been anticipating, I think it's going, I feel more strongly about it now. I guess enough time has passed. I think we're, it feels like it can, I think we can get another run in the wheats here before harvest. I do believe so. I'm hoping so anyways. I shouldn't say I believe it. I think it's, I think it could happen. So I'm fairly optimistic about the grains and oil seeds. [00:23:49] Speaker A: Well I know when I start running out of patience is also a time where I make bad marketing decisions. So. [00:23:55] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:23:56] Speaker A: All right, so corn, wheat, you know looking for, let's see what the spring and summer bring us here if we go even longer term. You know when you're doing your analysis is is the positivity from this short term is that translate into later on into the future as well? [00:24:17] Speaker B: Yeah. So I've got a theory here that we, that these, the price will rally up to these 200 week moving averages or sorry converge on the two week moving average. So that'd be a significant rally if the price moves through space up to that moving average and if the moving average which most of them are declining now if the price continues sideways the moving average will move down to the price. So right now I would describe most of the markets in a downtrend on the longer time frame and so it's really kind of betting against the trend right now which is usually just difficult to do. But I do feel that I think we get a rally but for the longer term, you know, I don't know I've been, I. These markets go slower than a lot of times I anticipate them to go slower but I mean I do think in the next couple years that we see lower prices than we have today and I would say dramatically like 20, 20% lower dollar bushel, lower corn, maybe more that type of thing. So yeah, long term doesn't look that great to me. [00:25:36] Speaker A: So I, I think that again I not saying that I'm know what the heck's going to happen here in two to three years but we've come off these highs and we you know make our way down the market moves our are smaller in those time frames as well. So as you go, you know you look at the Canola market this last year, sure a 560 and a 680 or 580680 range, like that's a hundred bucks a ton, but small compared to what we were seeing for the years prior to that. And I see that even just tightening up a little bit into next year and thereafter. And the same thing with wheat, honestly, joking about wheat the other day, spring wheat, about how like my large volume of my last large volume of sales was almost like last spring, like for the 25 crop that I'm planting here shortly or now, depending on where you farm. My sales that I did were basically all just about a year ago now for what I got done there. Right. And the wheat market hasn't done that much exciting all winter long, which I shouldn't be surprised about, but we're at. All right, okay, so short term, summarize this. We're going to say short term optimism for higher prices, long term, you know, bearish sentiment into the long term. [00:27:03] Speaker B: Yeah. So yeah, I guess. What is the short term? What is the longer term? Yeah, you know, I see these greens. I'm looking at canola right now. I guess, you know, area of resistance, maybe we get a pullback, but I think so short terms are measured in, in two weeks, period. Yeah, I'm neutral to bullish. Again, bullish above 680, but then longer, you know. And I think, I think see a rally up here throughout the spring, maybe summer and maybe into the fall we can have nice prices. But I just think moving out to a multiple year time frame, I, I'm just very skeptical, I guess of these prices maintaining the levels that they're at now. So. [00:27:46] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, I think there's going to. [00:27:48] Speaker B: Be some pricing opportunities. You know, right now we're seeing them if, you know, with the different grains, you know, relative to what they've been the last day. I think we're making crop year highs in most of the grains in western Saskatchewan, western Canada. That's grains and oil seeds. So that's, that's positive, you know, that's going in the right direction. So. [00:28:06] Speaker A: Yeah, well, I, I know, you know, if I let the cat out of the bag here a little bit on, on my side is, you know, I've told the clients that I work with, you know, don't be surprised if recommendations follow each other in, in short order. Like don't be surprised if we make a sale here on Wednesday and by the next week we're doing more. I'm a believer here in getting a lot of stuff done this spring and into summer. And again, I know that not everyone's comfortable with that, but I spend my energy Just finding those strategies to help farmers during this time of year, you know, when you have profitability, a rally, margins. How can I make those sales without being worried about a big buyout or not knowing my production? There's a whack of different strategies to look at. And that's where as we start to sell and we get to that uncomfortable level, I spend my energy just saying, okay, here's a strategy. This one's bulletproof. There's no buyout on this. This is how it works. Because often, you know, you will get some peaks in the spring and you look back at some old charts and I get a lot of farms say, oh, I wish I would have done more. Why didn't I do more? And the reason you didn't, because you didn't know what crop you're going to have. [00:29:37] Speaker B: So, yeah, yeah, you make a great point. I think you're great at managing or helping manage risk, and I think that's so important. And you know, if you can book a profit, you know, and you're happy with that level of margin, that profit, then I think you take it, meet your cash flows and you know, you will be disappointed trying to sell at the highs all the time if you want to wait until what you think is going to be the high of the market. And I just think back to my own experience. I've given back a lot of gains in my life, a lot of gains. And you don't forget that. You never forget that. It sticks with you. So, and if you want to, you know, if you can lock in profits, you're gonna, you're gonna stay in business. And it's not about being the wealthiest farmer, the best, the best marketer, you know, quotation marks. It's about surviving and continuing. [00:30:35] Speaker A: So my on record here, I, on the pod, I, you know, 6 million bucks, that's my, that's our goal for the farm. That is the, the minimum goal yield is the big wildcard out of that. Yet we don't know what that looks like. But as prices get to levels where, you know, they're lifting my average up and getting me to this path of 6 million bucks, that is the ultimate goal here because at 6 million bucks, life is normal for us. Very normal. We can do some stuff, you know, if prices are down 10, 15, 20% next year, who knows? Then I got to make that up somewhere else. [00:31:17] Speaker B: So, yeah, yeah, yeah, it's, it's, that's great advice and it helps me. Brings me back to conversation I had with a gentleman a couple of Years ago. He was a derm grower I think at the end of his. Didn't towards the end of his farming career. But I think in Durham he could have, he could have sold at $22 at one time and that was 20. And then we had that sell off and it was down to 15. He was still hanging on to it. I think he held onto it at 11. I mean, he told me he doesn't need the money, doesn't care what price he sells the derm at. Yeah, but I mean that's, it's quite a haircut, right? 40,000 bushels. That's quite a bit of money. [00:31:54] Speaker A: Exactly. And yeah, I get it, like the stress isn't maybe there and you don't need the money, but why not go get all the money? Go get it all and do whatever else you want to do with it. Right. But just go get it. [00:32:08] Speaker B: So anyway, and I think we've all, if you've been in this game, whether it's in the markets or grain farmers, you know, I think most people probably have a similar story. Maybe not to the same magnitude, but we've. Yeah, I'm certainly sure we've all wished we would have taken opportunities to sell at higher prices, you know. [00:32:26] Speaker A: Yeah, well, you know, we have a whole growing season ahead of us, Trent. We don't know what mother Nature, what, what card she's going to throw at us. Some of the people listening have been in drought scenarios for five, six, seven years. It is different across the prairies. I get it, folks. I unders. Know, I understand it's not just as easy as picking up the phone and making sales, but you know, let's hope for a, a really great production year. Let's get all the bushels and let's make sure we sell it at the highest prices we can. So Trent, I appreciate you, you coming on the show this week again. I really, really admire the work you put in just on this canola market here in the last few months. And, and it paid bills, man. It paid bills for farmers 100%. How do people get a hold of you? Where's your, where can they find your research and how can they get a hold of you? [00:33:25] Speaker B: Yeah, I'm on X, I'm on Facebook, I'm on the social media platforms, my website, Clarenback, ca. They can find me there. My phone number's there, email, I mean, little bit of digging. You can reach out to me and want to. Yeah, give me a call. I love, I love talking the markets. I guy phoned me Today about silver. You want to talk about silver and of all things. [00:33:48] Speaker A: Right? [00:33:48] Speaker B: So talk about Canola. Silver doesn't matter to me. [00:33:51] Speaker A: Right. [00:33:52] Speaker B: I love talking to stuff. [00:33:53] Speaker A: Awesome. Well, thanks again for joining me, man. Keep up the good work. And folks, this guy paid for his subscription many, many times over here over the last few months, so hit him up. Clarionback Cat and Trent can get you hooked up with some great analysis and some great research. Take care, man. [00:34:12] Speaker B: Thanks, Ryan. Always a pleasure. [00:34:17] Speaker A: Oh, man. I've got housekeeping here. I've got stuff. Guys, we are busy over at what the futures. Couple things. We are going to close off our hockey pool. I'm probably going to extend it to Sunday night now because we have had some tech technical issues. But the what the futures NHL playoff pool. It's in your email, you know, if you want to access it. I've sent it out via email. It'll be in the podcast notes here as well. But whoever wins this playoff pool, we're going to give you two tickets to a NHL game of your choice. If you're a. A Panthers fan, a Vegas fan, you want to go watch a game in Buffalo, I do not care. We will get you two tickets to that game. All right. We're not going to. I love the Oilers. Doesn't mean you have to come and watch the Oilers. Okay, so it's the office pools. If you look up. You know what, actually I might be able to save us a little bit of time here. What the futures 2025. That is the name of the pool. What the futures 2025. And the password. Oh, boy, this is going to get me in hot water. I think it's bullish. All lowercase. I think that is a password. All right, go check it out. Someone is going to win a couple tickets here to NHL game of your choice for next season. I talked about a keto already again that we're coming to a close on there. If you want some free product, lower that cost of production on your farm, why not win some aikido, spray that on on your your cereals there. We're going to draw for that at the end of the month. We also have the hat contest. I want to shout out Osborne School. We're getting some entries in from Osborne School. Of course we're going to take these, pick a design, we're going to send that away to get created and then we're going to sell these hats at Egg in Motion. And all the money, all the proceeds that we get is going to go to the Canadian center for agricultural well being, of course. I had Dr. Brianna join me last week. But we're going to raise some money here for a great cause. And again, mental health on farm, just super close to my heart and to many of you as well. So the hat design contest, it closes next week and then we'll have some hats that we'll put out for voting, I believe is what we're doing and we'll pick a winner, send that away and we'll have those in July. If you're listening to this episode and saying, hey, I'm not going to design a hat, but my company wants to get involved, we would like to sort support this great cause. Can I buy, can we get hats, can we order hats for our organization? Yes. Reach out to us, Ryan with the Futures podcast ca and we will get you those details. Again, all the money going to the CCAW and mental health initiatives for farmers in Canada. Not just western Canada, but in Canada. Oh, YouTube music. I've got my planting My Seating playlist is on YouTube Music. I know this is a, a favorite of some of you that, that have tuned in in the past. I've, I've done these playlists going all the way back to my FBN days. I so 2020, 2020. I think there's some from back there, but it's basically what the futures. If you're a YouTube music person, you, you go to what the futures is the playlist hashtag plant25. And that's going to be my top 100 songs that help you plant and grow a wonderful crop here in 2025. All right, so go check that out. I will be doing some shout outs on some of those great tunes here over the next month or so, but go have some fun with it and hey, let me know what you think of my taste of music. It needs to be probably, I don't know how the kids would say it, but I'm a little old school. I probably gotta, you know, mix in, mix in some, some new stuff in there. I tried but, you know, we'll see. As of recording here, I just got another, another email with a bunch of hat contest entries. So get those in, keep getting those in. We've got some absolute beauties right now. I don't know how we're gonna pick a winner here, but there's some beauties coming in. Kids doing a great job and adult sending in their hat design. So keep it up. All right. Appreciate it. All right, my positive moment for this week, folks. I took a couple days off last week and Went and spent some time with my dad and my brother. We went to see ACDC in Minneapolis. Honestly, the key takeaway here is just spending some time with my dad and my brother. We have not made this a priority over the last 10 years, but we, you know, we're changing that moving forward. All right, so just to get together for a couple days and hang out and just, you know, hang out as guys and we had a great time. Concert. 77 year old lead singer, 70 year old lead guitarist, put on an amazing show for their age. Saw three generations of ACDC fans in the stands. Absolutely top notch electric. It was fantastic. And I had a great time. So great to be with the guys and just an awesome, awesome time in Minneapolis. And hey, I know we got, we got our beefs going on right between the US and we're in the crosshairs here in Canada. We're under, under fire. But I know people are having their own experiences out there, but it was phenomenal. The people in Minnesota were fantastic. We didn't run into any, anything that wasn't border security, the airport. Everything was, was super smooth. Like it was great, great all around, great trip. So that's, that's my positive moment here for this week. All right folks, I appreciate when you share these episodes with a farming friend, colleague, neighbor, whatever it may be. Hoping to do some live type shows here during seeding as well. Still trying to work through some of those, some of those logistics. But let me know, let me know in the comments if you would tune in to a crop marketing specific. You know, maybe it would be live through whatever social media platform, probably late in the evening, you know, nine, ten o'clock at night. Let me know if you'd be interested in something where we, me and a guest jump on for half an hour or an hour and just riff through crop markets and strategies and if that would be of of interest. Cause I, I'd like to pull something like that off here during seeding while you're going back and forth and maybe fill a little bit of that time time for you. So yeah, hit me up in the comments, let me know if that's a good idea. Send me an email or, or let us know on social media. But appreciate your feedback and guidance in that. All right, so what's on my mind here for crop marketing for, for this week? Well, we got a little. Oh, okay. I kind of have four things. I should probably rate this down. I'm going to say time of year here and I'll get back to that in a second. I want to talk about oats and feed barley. It's all kind of related. I wanted to talk about the importance of the spring market. Okay? So it's the time of year, folks. The time of year where, where you've got, you know, busy farmers, you've got buyers that are looking to fill needs and you have these spot opportunities, okay? And so, you know, it's pretty regular now where I'm getting a message. Hey, do you got any, got any soft white? You have any winter weed? Hey, I'm looking for six loads of. Hey, this guy backed out. He's not loading trucks this week. It snowed or rained or whatever. The yard's bad. You got a little bit of this to cover me off. Like we're, we're in that time of year, okay? It can be an exciting time of year. It can be a time of year where prices are some of the highest values that we've, that we've seen all year long. And if you have the ability to load a truck, get a truck in the yard and load it often your, your efforts are paid at this time. All right? So I want to just start with that couple things. Oat market. Now the oat market is, it's been lulling us to sleep all year. All year, all winter long here. But there is a spike in demand for old crop oats. And I'm talking about, number one, I'm talking about organic oats. All right? Organic oats for now and for fall, paying higher premium than, than what we've seen the last, I'd call two years. Okay. There's new crop organic oats in, you know, northern Alberta, let's say for north of $10 a bushel. So a bit more of a premium out there. There's a premium for glyphosate free oats or they don't say glyphosate free, they say, no, I don't know, pre harvest aid or something like that. Anyways, whatever that is, you know, there's a premium out there for that right now and demand for that. So those two are going hand in hand. And then there's also the gluten free oat, which just, you know, means you're not going to have any wheat in there or any wheat in your bins, stuff like that. It's gotta be gluten free, all right? And so there's processes and stuff in place, but there's a premium for that. If you just have that regular oat that's been sprayed, you know, that market's not that exciting at this time? It's picked up a little bit, but it's not as exciting. And the buyers and sellers are continuing to meet. You know, the sellers go up a nickel or dime, buy a little bit and then pull back because, yeah, they're kind of still meeting. But just want to let you know that some of the other oat markets out there, they're popping here. There's that spring demand. Okay. Also seeing, you know, feed barley a little bit of a, you know, $5 a ton pop in feed barley values for old crop here again, that time of year when that barley market tends to show strength, show some of its strongest values. It's climbed about five bucks a ton here this week. So we are in that what, 3, 10 ish. I'm just going to do some quick math here, make sure I'm not misquoting this but into Lethbridge. So I believe that's a 3:15. 3:15ish on that one. Actually, I'll just double check if might be able to double check while recording here or not. There we go. 3 10, 3 10, 3 10, 3 twelves. 3 10, 3 12. That's all kind of out there at this moment. Delivered Lethbridge for the spring. All right. The fourth thing here on my mind for crop marketing this week is now I don't know what Mother Nature's what, what we got coming. All right. I don't know what we got coming. I know my weather guy in our webinar a few weeks ago said April's going to be cool. More chances for precept. You know, speaking prairie wide and I'd say that's been pretty much it. It's definitely not the warm and fuzzies of the last couple springs. I don't think anyone, I don't think that bothers anybody. I think it's been fine. I don't know what the weather's going to bring. Okay. I've seen the long range forecast. I've seen the big bullseye of drought in the US For July. I've seen the, the dryness concerns for the prairies as well. I'm, I'm aware. I'm definitely aware. But as we get into spring here and as we get into the most, traditionally the most important time of your crop marketing plan, I, I want to just emphasize the message on, you know, being prepared to tackle what, what's ahead. And so, you know, I look at, I've been a pretty active seller here on, on Canola the last couple weeks, right. I've been doing Some stuff here on, on the Canola market, we kind of get to that level of comfort of maybe it's no sales for you, but maybe it's 10% or 20 or 50, whatever it is. And then we, we kind of stop. We get to a point where we stop. It's different for everybody, but you get there and you stop. And again you sit there and you have to. Because you don't know what you're going to grow from a production standpoint. You don't know what, what Mother Nature's got. But I'll just say that if you could spend and I know you're busy, I know you're very busy, but if you could spend and hopefully you have spent this time already, but just time on what strategies to execute on as markets make new highs this spring. Like a normal thing will happen where we get planting. I don't know, frost, knock on wood, frost doesn't rally a market anymore. Used to, but it hasn't for the last while. Not a spring frost anyway, even a fall one. You guys remember those years, there was not much market rally with those guys and there was a pretty big frost anyway. So you get, you get planted and then you get that June, you know, a couple of weeks of dryness, the market's going, rallying, making some new highs, whatever it's doing. And. And then it fizzles out. The rains come, the production ideas get better and it fizzles out again. I don't know between now and that high, I don't know what that looks like. I don't know what day that is. I don't know how that plays out. I don't know if it even happens, right. But to prepare yourself, to know the strategy that, okay, I'm going to get to my percent level, I'm going to get to my comfort level. And if I'm going above that, these are the two strategies I'm going to execute on. These are the strategies that I'm going to execute on that I won't have a buyout or my. I know my calculated risk, whatever it is. If you can spend some time figuring that out, there's no guarantees. There's no guarantees that by the time you get to fall into next winter, the prices are going to be better. And I know that's a weird statement, maybe a broad statement, but just spending a little bit of time to capture. Even if I simple this make this even more simple. Like let's say right now the price of wheat offered to our farm is 750 a bushel, I think we're insured at 774 a bushel in Saskatchewan. Anyways, I want to turn this into, you know, something profitable. Let's say hypothetical here, that I need to generate like nine bucks. Let's say I need to get to nine dollar wheat. That's a buck fifty today. Seems like a bit of a stretch, but something happens. The rally, it's hypothetical. The rally starts to develop and away we go. And we go from 7:50. Now we're at $8, you know, making our way to 8 and a half, whatever it is. We get to a point where I'm getting close to break even or I'm getting, you know, cutting my losses back significantly here. What strategy are you going to implement to make that, to make that sale? You're sitting here saying, man, hey, let's say my break even is $9 and it gets to $9, but you're at $9 because there's two weeks of dryness in the Prairies or two weeks of dryness in the, in the northern plains. And it starts to turn, it changes. It rains, the forecast turns much wetter. It's a guessing game, right? But it starts to change. What strategy are you going to execute on to be like, wow, I am near break even, I've cut my losses, whatever it is, maybe I'm profitable. What strategy can you say, all right, I've prepared for this. I'm going to go lock this down and I'm going to protect as best I can because I've, I've made it to break even or whatever it is. All right? I don't know if that makes sense, but just figuring out what that strategy is for your farm and making sure that you go and capture that. Because these things happen all the time at this time of year, and more often than not, well, two things happen. I get farms where they've sold and then they sit there and say, holy smokes, I've sold some stuff. I'm, I'm sitting back, my yield is going down a little bit. And then I got farms that, that sit there, say, shoot, why didn't I do more? And sometimes they're the same, but you know, how. So how can I get to that, how can I get to that level of comfort to sell more grain? What strategies, what tools can I use to be a seller? All right, I think farmers in western Canada, I think you guys do a heck of a great job growing crops. And so that's what I, that's what I pencil in. Step one, step One, you guys are going to do a heck of a job growing a good crop. You know, Mother nature come change my mind. It happened in 21, but come change my mind. All right, so you guys are gonna go and do that. So as I market, I keep that in my mind until something significant happens that changes that story. All right? And even last year, you know, in July tops, turning off whatever it was. Anyways, just know what that strategy is. Because I, I feel, you know, when I look at this market, I believe strongly that some of our best opportunities will be happening over the next. Call it eight weeks here. I'm preparing for it, and I hope you are as well. All right, so spring marketing, super, super important and can't look past it. I think I've said enough, so let's leave it at that. All right, so for eating your veggies here for this week, because it's, you gotta eat your veggies. It's the right thing to do. Makes you healthier, stronger. And so from a crop marketing perspective here in April, you know, I would say in some of my notes here is, you know, prepare for spring rallies, whatever. That kind of means something different for everybody. But I would just say, you know, step one here is again, learn those strategies. Okay? Whatever the strategy is that you're going to execute on, that gives you the confidence to be a seller in these rallies. You know, get that dialed in, get that written down, whatever, put in your notes section of your phone, write it down on the window of the tractor, the sprayer, like, this is what I'm doing when this market turns. This is what I'm going to execute on when I reach the level of break even or profitability that I'm, I'm aiming for. You cannot look past these opportunities here that are happening today. As of you listening to this, there's already there in some markets, but, but also right around the corner here, you're gonna hear me talk about or reference. You know, we put in some wheat targets heading into spring, and the buyer, they laughed at us. They weren't very nice. You know, they laughed at our targets. They said, you're nuts. These aren't gonna hit. Why waste the paper? Well, of course, last year we had a heck of a spring wheat rally. Um, and we sold a lot of wheat in that rally. And those targets, they may have been a $50 out of where prices were they hit. They triggered, you know, $9 wheat for our farm in central Saskatchewan. The reason we got nine and the reason we got 925 and did we get a 950? I'd have to look back was because of those. Putting those targets in. As we were getting busy, we put them in. And even though they may be pie in the sky right now, you just don't know what's going to develop here. And to start getting those sales on at break even or profitability. I can't argue against that. That's why our weed average this past year was phenomenal for our farm, is those targets and the work that they did while we were busy planting crops. All right, so number two, get some. Get some wheat targets out there. I would. I would take a quick look at that. And my last thing here for eating your veggies. And I don't know how to say this properly, but, you know, this. This is about execution now, all right? This is about you going out and planting this crop in a safe and efficient way. And so, you know, you've done all the work all winter, you've done all the planning, you've done all the prep, know, have a safe, safe start out there. I'll just say that, you know, go and go and plant that crop. You know, do everything you can to get all those bushels. And don't worry so much. Don't stress so much about, you know, should I be changing my cropping plan now? And. And all this stuff. It's now time to execute. And, you know, there's lots of talks about people switching out acres and all this stuff, but, you know, at the end of the day, go out there, get it done as safe and as efficient, safe and efficiently as possible, and it'll all work out all right, so have fun out there, and we'll leave it at that for eating your veggies for this week. Well, folks, thanks for joining me here once again on the what the Futures podcast. I, you know, it's one of those things where, you know, within my conversation with Trent is that there's people doing great things out there. And I just wanted to highlight that this week because that Canola market was written off. And, hey, some of you are selling at some of the highest prices you've seen or the highest price you've seen all year. Opinions were out there. I told Trent, you know, as we're wrapping up recording, I'm like, trent, I'm not trying to have you out there as the show pony to be like, hey, look at this. Look what this guy does. Like, you know, amazing all the time. Like, no, let's be real. We don't get it. All right, all the time and Trent was very clear about that too. It's hey, but this, this was a unique one and I hope you guys enjoyed that conversation. I hope you're spending a considerable amount of time on your crop marketing right now and I know you're going to shake your head and say what the heck is he talking about? I know you're busy folks, but when you're busy, that's crop marketing's time to shine. So I hope you're spending time, energy, resources in, in executing your, your crop marketing plan right now. And if you aren't, smart up, all right, Spend some time, figure out how to spend a little bit of time on your crop marketing plan. As drills roll, as we get busy. It's crazy out there. It's just going to get busier. Do yourself a favor, spend time on your crop marketing. That's it. I'm out for episode 72.