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Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: All right, folks, welcome back to the what the Futures podcast. I've got a great episode for you. We're going to answer a fertilizer question, should I buy or wait? We're going to talk crop rankings. We're also going to throw in Manitoba Agriculture. They put out a margin ranking calculator. 15 out of 16 crops with a negative margin. We're going to incorporate that in this week's episode and see what else could we consider growing. Is there anything else? Brett Young, can you help us on this way?
All right, folks, episode 106 coming at you right now.
Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast, your quick guide to better farming decisions.
Alrighty, folks, welcome into episode 106 of the what the Futures podcast. I hope you're having an outstanding week. Of course, recorded in the UPL studio each and every week. And I got to throw in here, folks, I think about Valentine's Day when I think about the grower rewards program and some of the the deadlines coming up. You want to maximize your programming over at upl. I'll be buys one of the best programs out there. The deadline's actually not on Valentine's Day. They're not that romantic over at UPL. It's February 15th. So there you have it, folks.
Coming up real quick here in a month, about a month away.
All righty.
We also updated. If you're looking for, you know, who is my UPL rep, who are some of the people that I can rely on over there? For information, head over to the whatthefutures podcast. Ca you can find your territory contact right there on our website. Just like that. We just updated it here the other day. I was at a farm here.
We were just actually earlier today, I'm recording Wednesday. We were reminiscing about our time over in Raleigh, North Carolina. We were hanging out there with the great folks at upl. Just an awesome trip. And just this came to mind as we revisited some of our moments there earlier today.
All right, folks, I I've got some great, a couple of great guests for this week. I've got Alan and Thomas from Brett Young. They're going to join me to talk about this little dandy here. This.
Well, it's like a seed production, kind of like a guide. All right. I'm sure you've saw this in the mail as well. You could go and check it out at the website. But plant harvest profit, we are looking, man, a little play on harvest profit right there too. But we are looking at maximizing, you know, our acres like we do each and every year. And when I throw up my crop rankings again, I'm a little bit of a, a traditional, you know, farm north of Saskatoon. And I'm, I don't get that fancy right. It's, it's canola maybe it's specialty canola. It's a couple of different classes of peas, some different wheats, barley, oats, you know, things like that. Flax gets in the mix there as well. But I've, I've never actually thrown seed production into the mix here. And you know, just chatting with the guys over at Brett Young, you'll see in a moment, but I wanted to throw that in the mix because let's face it, guys, margins are, are tight or non existent in some of the crops that pop up.
You know, Chuck Penner was on the show last week and one of the quotes that caught the most attention here was when Chuck mentioned that gross margins have dropped between 90 to $110 an acre for 2026.
You know, there's no business in western Canada, no farm business in western Canada that can, that can stomach that.
And so it doesn't matter where you turn, it doesn't matter. You know, if you were in Saskatoon at the crop production show, all the conversations are revolving around, you know, what do we put in the ground, what do we, what can we pencil out here? What should we do for 2026?
It looks a little gloom right now.
There's some positivity out there, guys, but it looks a little gloomy right now as a whole. What are we going to do? And I thought why not throw some seed production here into the mix and at least have a conversation, at least for myself. Enlighten my experience here on, on what to grow in 2026. Is there something to consider when it comes to forage and turf seed production? All right, now before we get too far down into the show, I had the flu this week, so I, I gave you a whopper of an episode last week with two hours. I'm going to shorten it up a little bit this week, try to balance it out here just a little bit. But I caught the flu.
You know, I. Finley's birthday was Friday and so we went to preschool with him and they do a nice job of celebrating the kids on their birthday and we're there. You know, you bring something for the whole class and we brought some. It's got to be, got to hit certain parameters here, guys. It's got to be nut free, etc.
And so, so we went to preschool and had his birthday, kind of like a birthday party at 3 years old. Obviously you've got family for your birthday, but, you know, you. Most of the time, you don't have a large friends group established or anything like that. So it was a great time.
But I'm sitting there at preschool on Friday, and I'm not gonna name his name on here, because I still. I've got a grudge against a preschooler. But this poor guy, he runs to the bathroom.
He's having some troubles in the bathroom. He's got the flu. He goes to the bathroom a couple times, finally said, you know what? We're gonna call your parents. Someone will come pick you up. You're not feeling good, buddy.
You know, let's get you home, get you rested up.
You know what crossed my mind?
I looked at that kid and I was like, all right, you little. You little guy.
[00:06:32] Speaker B: Work.
[00:06:33] Speaker A: There's more than just you that's going to be sick out of this. Sure enough, Sunday night, I, you know, I shouldn't hold a grudge against a preschooler, but I got the flu. All right? I caught the flu.
Now I've rebounded quickly. But as I'm going through the motion. We're not going to get graphic here on the show. It's a family show. But as I'm going through the motions, it's Sunday night. It's like two in the morning.
I start. Start to get cold, and the chills, I'm starting to shake a little bit. And I'm just like, oh, man, I'm going to be sick here.
My whole week's gonna be messed up. How am I gonna be, you know, how am I gonna be feeling by Wednesday? I've got meetings, all these meetings all week. I got all this stuff to do.
Then I start thinking about, all right, like, what happens if this is a little bit worse? What happens if.
If I'm out of commission for a week? Or what happens if I need something, medication, or I'm starting to spiral, right? It's Sunday nights, two in the morning, and then like, all right, well, have I left my affairs in order?
Is everything in place here? If this turns really bad, right? That's where it goes, I think. Men, if you're listening to the show, you're probably relating, like, yeah, Ryan, that's where I go, too. I go right to that level. Are my affairs in order? Because that's where my head went, right?
And so I get the flu and I'm out of commission. Like, I come down the stairs Monday and I'M just, like, sprawled out on the couch. I'm up with Finn before my wife and daughter. And my wife comes downstairs, and she's like, oh, no, no, you've got the flu.
In the back of her mind, she doesn't say this out loud, but I know in the back of her mind, she's like, I have another child to take care of now. Like, oh, right. And so I'm like, yeah, I'm sick. Anyways, they get ready. They go to preschool.
Super mom just takes it, you know, takes it on. I go back to bed, and I spend most of the day in bed. I came down for a little bit.
And anyways, so then Tuesday, starting to feel a little bit better. Trying to get a meeting in, trying to participate in the family activities. My wife's still taking most of it. But Tuesday afternoon, she gets back.
Well, now she's like, I'm not feeling good.
And, you know, as. As the partner, as the husband, you're like, oh, no, we're doomed if Mom's not feeling good. Like, hopefully this passes quickly because we are doomed. And the kids look at you, too, and they're like, dad's going to take care of us.
There's a little bit of excitement because they're like, chicken fingers, French fries.
Watch a little more tv, probably. You know, there's some of that.
But they're also terrified because now Dad's in charge.
So.
So I. You know, my experience, I get the flu. I'm laid out, and I am, like, completely out of it. And I am. I'm trying to figure out my affairs, right? Make sure my affairs are in order. My wife says, I'm not feeling good. I have a fever. I'm going to go lay down for an hour.
I'm going to go lay down.
Pops of Tylenol.
Hour goes by.
We're downstairs, and I could hear something upstairs.
I'm like, what is that noise?
Like, Chantal's asleep.
She's got the flu.
I gotta go check this out. I go upstairs, and there's my wife.
Complete hyperspeed mode.
And she has decided that we're going to Reno. Our bathroom. So she is starting to get organized.
She's taking things off the wall. She's putting. She's yelling paint colors at me. And I'm like, you're sick. You're supposed to be in bed. What is happening? And she's like, nope, this has been on my mind. I want to get this started.
This is happening. Felt like the difference between you and I when the flu hits Is unbelievable. Unbelievable difference. I finally get her distracted from that, she takes off, and now it's like, it's warm out, so it's plus 11 degrees here. Spring fever hits super clean mode. Let's clean this room. I want to totally spring clean this room. And I'm like, all right, this is nuts. You gotta go lay down. Like, I don't know what happens to you when you get home, get the flu, but this is insane. I don't know, guys. I don't know if you can relate to that story or not, but if you can, I'd love to hear it. All right. Because that's. That's what went down in our place this week. I don't know where. I don't know. Maybe Ty. I took Tylenol too. That didn't happen to me. I don't know what is going on over there. But yeah, so if. Yeah, if you guys want to. Maybe I should make YouTube videos about our bathroom right now, because that is happening.
That is now happening. So I don't wish the flu on anybody, and I certainly don't wish it on someone that is inspired to do a bathroom Renault when the flu hits. So. All right, the other fun thing here, just before we get into some of the nitty gritty, so.
So YouTube, you guys, this is. I never. When we put this together back in the summer of 24. 23.
Yeah, 23. Okay. I never thought that this was gonna be on YouTube, but I never thought that this, you know, well, this wonderful Hawaii inspired hat today would be on a tv and every once in a while I'll have like, you know, a buddy, like take a picture and I'm on their big screen TV and they're listening to the show and stuff. I never thought of that, but it's cool. And you know, if you're gonna. If you're listening to this on YouTube, go hit that subscribe button for me. I think we're like 20 away or 18 away from a thousand. Again, I don't know what YouTube is going to do for us, but maybe there'll be some fancy, like, I don't know, streamers or fireworks or something when we open up YouTube after that happens, I'm a little bit curious.
So anyways, I never thought of this, but the kids, they. They're. They're YouTubers, man. Like, they.
They're on YouTube. Watching their shows on YouTube. It's. Honestly, it's the most used channel in our program or app in our home or service, whatever you call it.
And so I must have been listening or checking out a part of the segment last week. And so my face pops up. The what? The Future show pops up on YouTube on the TV.
And the first thing, I didn't see it right away. And Finley looks. He's like, dad. And I'm like, oh, hey, yeah, there's dad. And then Willow looks over, and she's like, we don't have to watch you, do we?
No, no, no. And Fitz's like, oh, we don't want to watch you, dad. I'm like, all right, guys. Easy, easy. Well, yes, we can watch.
Oh, darn. What are they watching on YouTube these days?
Oh, maybe it's Blaze is a big one. And Kid Crew. I got to put a shout out to Kid Crew. That. That's definitely.
Every. Every Sunday, the Kid Crew episode gets played. So anyways, my kids not giving me a lot of love on. On YouTube this week, so I think let's use that for positive moments and. And we'll get into it here just a little bit more. All right, folks, so I want to. I want to get into the mailbox here shortly. We did get an email here the other day yesterday from Dallas. So I want to talk about that because it's something important that we want to review from last week and actually not spin it, but I want to talk about how two things can be true. All right, so we're going to get to the mailbox, and then we are going to talk about some trends, some price trends out there as of recording. A couple positives to note here. A couple yellow pea rye feed barley crops I want to highlight. And then I want to try something new here with.
It's gonna be wacky, but I want to try something new with.
With popping a chart up here and a visual. So we're gonna give that a try here as well. So.
Yeah, some fun coming up. Some fun coming up. So let's.
Let's keep moving along here. We're gonna do that. Then we're gonna get to the.
The conversation with Thomas and Alan from Brett Young, and then we'll end with eating your veggies here. I got some important ones as well, so you'll want to stick around for that.
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There is a VIP list. You can join the wait list. And I am going to actually email those folks and just. Yeah, let them know that there's that one spot. But if you want to get in on the list.
Yeah, head over to the website again. Ryandinny, ca. Now, Dallas, where are you? Here we go.
He throws it back at me. Dallas gets the email about the fertilizer market and throws it back at me here. He got this email from me on October 10, says, okay, Ryan, what's going on with the fert market right now? My fert guy, he tells me who it is and who he works for, but my fert guy's telling me to buy, buy, buy, buy. Because wholesale fert prices are jumping now.
I think we got to be like, can we.
I don't know if jumping is the right word here. Like, jumping implies a little bit more excitement than. Than what's actually happening out there. All right, let's, let's, let's cool our jets here just a little bit. Let's be careful with our language. Isn't there something about that, with language and how we kind of over. I don't know. We'll talk about that another day. We don't have enough time today. But fertilizer prices, Dallas. So last week, I want to address this because last week, you know, technical analyst economist Trent Clarenback on the show talking about the trend of everything going lower. Commodities, crude, urea futures, like the trend being lower.
That being said, I believe that two things can be true. I believe that urea futures can trend lower throughout the year. But I also believe that you could be sitting here with a pricing window, a pricing opportunity.
Oh, man, it's not opportunity. Scratch that. I'm. Now I'm the one guilty of using the wrong word. But fertilizer prices are slowly starting to climb. Okay, now I believe I'm on record pretty clearly in November about, hey, it's quiet out there. Maybe you should pick up the phone. Maybe you should make some deals. And those values, for the most part, and a little bit into December have held as some of the lowest values, you know since the summertime, since probably the June, July time frame, something like that. All right. And so I'm here to tell you today, Dallas, thank you for the email. And even though I'm not going to use the word jumping, you do have farms coming to the table, writing some deals, retail starting to go through the, I would call some lighter inventory priced inventory that they had. Now they're going back to rebuy and that rebuy value is higher this week and it's higher. You know Josh Linville, he mentioned India bought a million tons out of their million and a half tender. So values were rising because of that. Talks about the you know, the war risk with Iran in, in the mix here as well.
Maybe we throw the, and maybe the USDA squashes but the, the checks coming in for U S growers, you know, maybe that contributes to some purchasing. But anyways there, there's a couple things here that are influencing a slightly higher price. It looks to me like Foss is kind of hanging in there. Potash is hanging in there right now.
Not seeing much on the, on the, on climbs in those two but urea is up, you know it's up 5, 6, 7 bucks a ton again. Is that a jump?
I don't know. I think we need to like define jump but it is climbing. I told Dallas, said hey man, I, I don't want you to buy fertilizer.
I wish you didn't have to buy fertilizer at these values. I don't want you to have to do this but I still think that you should.
And the interesting thing is that the spring price that is being quoted is in that 865, 870 range. 875, that's Stortel Spring and that is the exact same price that back in October one of the retails was at saying we all, we have, we just have it here at 865. They're going to be just fine. If their customers didn't buy at 770 or whatever the low was. Those guys are going to do just fine now getting rid of their inventory at 865. They're right in the market again. All right, sorry, I shouldn't, I shouldn't poke fun. I'm not trying to poke fun but they'll be fine. That's all I'm trying to say. But on the fertilizer side now what we have to compete against is yeah it is middle of January, there is a deadline to get stuff on farm to plant a Crop.
I, I believe summer fill program could be very interesting this year. I think some farms might look at it and say, you know, I'm going to put down some fertilizer with my seed and I'm not an agronomist so please, you know, disregard all this. But, you know, maybe they will see what they can buy fertilizer urea foreign in June and see if they can apply it at a lower value. I don't think that's the craziest thought out there or the craziest strategy.
So I'm curious to see what summer fill programs do. But I can see enough resilience here where the price urea price hangs in climbs slightly. I told Dallas, I said best case scenario for me, the price grinds sideways. So it grinds sideways and you've saved some interest and yeah. And then worst case scenario, it's going to climb 65 to 75 bucks a ton.
So best case scenario, I think it's sideways market. Worst case scenario, it's. Yeah. Now if anything can happen. But I just, I know in, in western Canada, retail does a really good job of telling the story. The violins come out, the song, you know, we're so the trucks, the rail, the river, like we can't get it in time.
Like that happens. They do a good job of it. And yeah, I'm just not a big believer that we have a significant price drop. Maybe we do in June or July. Maybe that's when it happens. But for right now, yeah, I'm leaning towards the buy. All right.
All right. So lunchbox crew bringing you the mailbox and send in your questions. Ryan at with thefuturespodcast.ca I get.
I'm getting them every week or so but some of them are just like direct answers back. They're not. Haven't been on the show much here lately, but I'd like to bring it back. So fire away. All right. Fire away.
Okay, now a couple market things before we talk about. Brett young.
Price climbs yellow peas. All right.
In edmonton, we saw eight dollar yellow peas consistently here the last month or so.
But now we saw some $8 peace trigger in the peace region. Old crop peas. All right, we're seeing price gains of 50 cents a bushel over the last couple days. Farmers messaging say. Ryan, is this because carney is in china?
I don't know. I don't think so, but I don't know. There's obviously some demand here, obviously some eager buyers.
But for me, I've got a little bit left to sell. It's called 20%. I'm gonna use this opportunity to make that sale. All right. So I'm hoping that Saskatchewan sees an eight as well. You got a long ways to go to get there, but I'm hoping you see close to an eight high sevens. Manitoba eight. Alberta eight and a bit. Central Alberta, eight and a quarter maybe. And then I would move my peas out at that. But anyways, they're up. I, I want you to know that. All right. Rye values up 50 cents.
Now, this is going to line company locations.
It's not a number that's going to have you jump off with excitement and, and, you know, kick your heels. But it's up, all right. It's up about 50 cents as well from the last time I checked. So that's good. And then feed barley is up 25 cents. A little more export demand for feed barley.
And yeah, you could check your bids out there if you got feed barley in the bins.
I, I like making this little sale right now. I did a little bit here, what, three weeks ago.
I'm gonna do a little bit more here as well, especially with the big corn number coming out. And again, you know, there's some relationship there and I don't know, but I, I like seeing it. I like seeing the, the demand, little uptick in price, get some cash in the bank. So those are three crops that I wanted to highlight for price gains. Of course, Canola's gained values here. The last week we saw, you know, $14 targets hit all over the place. Did see a few crush plants put up the sold out sign now till March. January full, February full. Now looking for March.
If you want to throw a theme in here, there's a little bit more. People are selling some grain, moving some grain. Right. So there's a little bit more of that going on, which is expected. Bills are due. Gray needs to move, especially off the field.
Action with, with the grain bags today I saw grain bags getting picked up. And so you have a little bit more competition out there for space. All right? People need money, people need to get the work done. So there's a bit more competition out there. I honestly, this just continues, this builds. We have a lot of supply out there that needs to get sold and moved. And it's going to remain a bit more competitive in this window. I mentioned that a few weeks ago. Right.
All right, let's go now. Let's go over the conversation. Let's bring in Thomas and Alan and after that we'll talk crop rankings a little bit. Eating your veggies and we'll wrap up the show. All right, let's bring in those guys. All right, folks, I've got Thomas and Al joining me from Brett Young this week on the what the Futures podcast.
Thomas, how's the week going?
[00:26:52] Speaker B: It's a busy week. Trade shows are starting up, but it never seems to slow down in AG anymore. Winter's not as slow as it used to be, so things keep moving every day.
[00:27:03] Speaker A: Yeah, you bet. Lots going on. And, Al, thanks for coming on the show. How is your week going?
[00:27:08] Speaker C: So far so good. Ryan, thanks for having me. And, yeah, similar to what Thomas said, it's been a busy week and looking forward to Ag Days and Brandon next week.
[00:27:18] Speaker A: Perfect. Perfect. Sounds good.
I'm a little frustrated that I'm going to miss Brandon this year. I haven't been to the show often, but I always get a very unique story out of it. So I almost want to go just to get the next little unique story, but we'll park that for now. So appreciate you guys jumping on the show. You're making your debut on the podcast, and I know that you're going to have a great segment here, and we're going to get you back in the near future. So don't think you're done with just one guy. Guys, I got a feeling about this. So, Thomas, why don't you just, you know, making your debut. Just give us a little bit of introduction. Your role of Brett Young and. And you know, what, what keeps you ticking, what keeps you focused? Whatever you want to throw out there.
Sure.
[00:28:04] Speaker B: So my role with Brett Young is I'm the Forage and Turf product manager. I'm based out of Winnipeg, Manitoba.
A farm kid from Steinbach, Manitoba. Originally got into the seed business early in my career with one of the big line companies and got involved in a bunch of different parts of the business there.
Came over to Brett Young getting close to seven years ago and for a different role. And then they asked me to come over to the forage and turf side of the business. And like many people, an egg didn't spend any time earlier in my career thinking about forage and turf, but it's been a real fun time getting to learn about. Learn this business and work in it. And it's been it. It's a fun spot to work, so I'm excited to talk more about it.
[00:28:46] Speaker A: Awesome. Sounds great. And Al, how about yourself? Little intro for the listeners out there.
[00:28:52] Speaker C: Yeah. So I'm a seed production specialist, and basically what that is is we're the. The go to People for visiting farms throughout Western Canada and helping growers in growing forage and turf seed production. So I've been doing this for, I think just over 15 years with Brett Young and live just outside of Winnipeg.
And yeah, hopefully we can help provide a little bit information to people out there today.
[00:29:21] Speaker A: So. So Al, you're like, you're the guy, like, if a farmer is working through this program, like, you're in contact with them.
[00:29:28] Speaker C: So I'm one of the guys.
We've got six seed production specialists throughout Western Canada, and we will have two summer students during the busy, busy summer season. So I have a territory in the eastern side of Manitoba, including the Interlake region and the Red River Valley. So depending on where you are in Western Canada, we'll have. We'll have you covered.
[00:29:54] Speaker A: How many. How many growers or, I don't know, acres or farms would you work within in a growing season or a cycle?
[00:30:03] Speaker C: It. It can vary, but I think in most production years, we're probably dealing the. The average rep or seed production specialist would be dealing with 50 to maybe even 100 growers in a. In a cycle. So.
[00:30:17] Speaker A: Okay. All right, cool.
So I got this in the mail the other day from. From you folks over at Brett Young Plant harvest profit, perennial rye grass seed production.
So I got this in the mail, and then shortly after, I had Chuck Penner on the show, and he's talking about how when he's looking at crops that there's a decline of like 100 bucks an acre of.
Of gross. How's this Chuck say it was a gross profit, Gross margin. And I thought, you know what? There's. There are other alternatives out there. I'm not here to say that, you know, growing perennial ryegrass is going to make up the hundred dollars per se, but when it comes to me, I'm a novice at this. I'm. I'm definitely a rookie at thinking about forage seed production.
So I thought, why not at least have a conversation about how this may fit into farm plants here for 20, 26 and beyond and see, you know, try to sniff out or source opportunity. So in today's conversation, I'm hoping that we can uncover some of the exciting parts of this business, some of the things that you maybe want to watch out for. And, and also just like a general state of how things are. Are sitting today. So does that sound fair, guys?
[00:31:39] Speaker C: Sounds great.
[00:31:40] Speaker B: All right.
[00:31:41] Speaker A: So, you know, when I think of Brett Young, like, again, our farm's north of Saskatoon and we. We grow four crops, Canola being one of the big acre one on our farm, I think about Brett Young, I think about canola seed. That's where my mind goes. But from a forage and turf side of the business, what is Brett Young known for out there? Well, what are we talking about, brand wise or variety wise?
[00:32:05] Speaker B: Yeah. So when it comes to our forage and turf business, a lot of people recognize Brett Young as a canola bread or at the forage brand that there's, you know, especially cattle growers in Western Canada, recognize our brand as an input. But a lot of people don't understand that.
We've actually been in the wholesale forage and turf business in Western Canada for 90 years.
And it's actually our core and original business that we work with farmers across Western Canada producing forage and turf species, and we sell them to customers and distributors all around the world.
And so it's a critical part of our business and. And a growing part of our business that a lot of people don't realize. And it's an opportunity for growers as well, because the critical part of that business is the partnership that we do have with our growers that produce the seed here in Western Canada.
[00:32:54] Speaker A: All right, so when we. When we look at, like, forage production and, you know, thinking about your customers out around the world, like, could you give me, like, an example, like, who.
Who is buying this or what industry are you sourcing this for?
[00:33:15] Speaker B: Well, I mean, there are two key industries there that we're talking about. So turf is really a consumer product, right? I mean, we all see turf around us all the time. There's snow on it right now, but yeah, I mean, most of us have a lawn, or even as you drive down the road, there's a boulevard or a road ditch or something like that full of turf grass. And.
And so it's all around us, but it needs seed to be established. And so that's a. That's a market that we supply and we grow that. And there are other places in the world that grow that, too. But Western Canada is a good place to grow some of those species.
[00:33:50] Speaker A: Turf.
[00:33:50] Speaker B: I mean, sorry, forages. I mean, I think a lot of people in agriculture obviously understand forages.
We're feeding livestock with that, but there's a wide range of species involved in that, and we can produce a lot of them here in Western Canada.
And one of the important things is, is that these species, we're obviously supplying our customers here in Western Canada, but we're selling them to Eastern Canada. We're selling them all over the US and we're selling them overseas as well, supplying different markets around the world. So the unique part about that is while you know, traditional crops, you know, wheat, canola, whatever, you're trying to grow the most bushels you can. You're. You're producing food and. Food and fuel. Right. But forage and turf is a different market. I mean, the end use, the end goal of a turf seed is a nice, beautiful green grass lawn.
And the end goal of a forage seed is, is a nice pasture or a hay field producing much forage as possible.
So they are different markets, and it gives growers who participate in these markets an opportunity to diversify their farm a little bit because they don't necessarily trade in the same, the same fluctuations that other commodity markets do.
[00:35:05] Speaker A: Yeah, fair enough.
From a turf perspective, I drive past some sod farms. Would. Like a sod farm, Would you be partnered with like a sod farm necessarily, or does that not really the scope?
[00:35:18] Speaker B: Yeah, so, I mean, that's a little bit of a different business unit for us, but we also have a professional turf business unit that supplies golf courses and sod farms and municipalities. So we're selling those products as well. So, I mean, turf seed goes into a lot of different markets.
It's a billion dollar industry around the world. Canada is a part of it. And there's an opportunity for growers who, who want to participate.
[00:35:43] Speaker A: This is going to be a silly one, and I apologize for asking this, but is there any, like, major, like, golf course or like, football stadium where, like, that's like, Brett Young grass out there? Like, I know that's a weird one, but I have to ask him.
[00:36:00] Speaker B: There is. I mean, that's again, our professional turf. Like our professional turf division. We, we still actually sell to golf courses nearly all the way across Canada. We're actually one of the largest suppliers to golf courses. So many golf courses across western Canada are growing bright, young turf.
I know we've, we've supplied some sports fields as well, but I didn't have one to come off the, off the top of my head here.
[00:36:24] Speaker A: Oh, no problem. That's a wild card for you anyway, so. All right now. So we, in 2025, we produced a lot of stuff in western Canada. What I mean by stuff is if you grew wheat, you grew a lot of it. If you grew canola, you grew a lot of it. If you grew lentils, you grew a lot of this stuff. Is it the same for the four orange seed production and the turf seed production? Like, were they massive amounts of production that we are that we're chewing through.
[00:36:54] Speaker B: I'd say our, our overall average, we were probably a little bit above average for Western Canadian production at the same time. I mean the west, our production in Canada is a relatively small part of the overall supply and demand. So it didn't upset things dramatically from, from that perspective.
[00:37:13] Speaker A: Okay. And on the demand side we've got geopolitical events, tariffs, a lot of negativity.
Well, you know, if you're shipping this stuff around the globe, has there been any hiccups or tariffs or political influence that's had an impact on demand?
[00:37:38] Speaker B: We've, we've been pretty fortunate. We haven't had any direct tariffs on product from Canada at this point, whether that's going into the US or overseas. In fact, there actually has been some benefits to us and it's a short term advantage where there were tariffs on US production going into China that Canadian production didn't face. And it was a slight opportunity for us.
You can't rely on things like that because that's going to come and go. But with all kinds of challenges, there's always opportunities. So.
[00:38:09] Speaker A: So from a demand perspective, we'd say pretty standard globally, like yeah. So steady as it goes.
[00:38:18] Speaker B: One thing with forage and turf species is, is we're not making a new market here.
This isn't a new crop. We just developed a new.
Trying to create a new use pattern or anything like that. These are pretty established markets with pretty stable regular consumption. It does vary from time to time and production varies over time as well. But it's relatively stable over time.
One of the challenges that we've been facing in the turf market was during COVID the demand spiked dramatically because everyone was staying home and working on their yards.
And so product was short and prices went through the roof and the industry responded and produced huge quantities. And of course, once everyone was allowed to go out again, that demand returned back to its kind of traditional level.
And that resulted in a little bit of oversupply for a period of time on the turf market. And we're working our way through that right now.
There's still reasonably ample turf supplies around the world, but the high quality products continue to be in demand. And that's what we grow a lot of in our business.
And so we continue to see pretty decent demand for our products. And while prices suffered a little bit during that supply glut, they've started to turn the corner and are, are moving in the right direction now. On the forage side, things have been much more balanced over the years from A supply and demand perspective in recent years. And actually crops like alfalfa and timothy are at historically very high values right now.
[00:39:59] Speaker A: Would that be due to the cattle markets being as high as they are, do you think?
[00:40:03] Speaker B: Or the cattle markets aren't hurting?
But it's also a global thing as well. We've actually seen a limit, like short crops in Europe over the last couple of years that's drawn. Caused some demand as well. So it is a global market. So everything. It does have an impact on crops from other spots doing well or not so well.
[00:40:25] Speaker C: All right.
[00:40:26] Speaker A: Okay. So I'm looking at this guy that I got in the mail. You know, it says seed production. Al, maybe this is one for you, but is there any special.
I know as a seed, you know, a traditional seed grower in western Canada, I think of, you know, additional paperwork, rules and regulations. Is this kind of this similar thing, like if I'm growing seed wheat, is it similar type of paperwork or structure if I'm growing perennial rye grass, for example?
[00:40:58] Speaker C: Yeah, so we are growing pedigreed seed production. And so that does require a bit of a process, paperwork process, which is now mostly done online. And that is something that we do help our growers out with as far as filling in those applications and making sure fields are inspected in a timely fashion. And it goes generally quite smoothly. There's just a few additional requirements that you would need outside of growing a traditional crop.
[00:41:31] Speaker A: So is it, is the inspection portion, is that the, the one, the, the biggest demand? I guess so.
[00:41:39] Speaker C: The inspection process is done through a third party inspection agency. And that's, like I say, a fairly straightforward process that as long as it's done in a timely manner, and in most cases, if there is any issues out there, there's ample time for those to be rectified before. Before harvest.
[00:41:59] Speaker A: Okay. All right, what about from an equipment standpoint?
Do I have to, you know, if I'm. Let's say I'm growing four different crops, I've got a pulse in the rotation, some cereals and, and some canola. Do I have to go and acquire any additional equipment to go through the cycle and through this production?
Yeah, this production cycle, yeah.
[00:42:28] Speaker C: No, no specialized equipment's required. The one piece of equipment that is necessary for the grass seed production is a swather.
So there's been obviously a bit of a change in the way that canola's harvested these past few years. So there's maybe a few less swathers on farms. But if you don't have one, generally the, the harvest Is in fair is one of the first crops to be harvested on farms. So if you don't have access to your own swather, perhaps you could rent or borrow one from a neighbor. So, but outside of that, conventional rotary combines do a good job. And as far as seeding these crops go, really, anything that the farmer has for seeding wheat or canola will work just fine for forage and turf seed crops.
[00:43:22] Speaker A: Okay. All right. Well, there probably are a few swathers. It's almost like a community thing now, where there's a swather within a certain number of farms or a certain community that's. That's available.
[00:43:34] Speaker C: Yeah, exactly.
[00:43:36] Speaker A: All right, so what would be step one? Like, if you're reaching out to Denis farms?
I want to get the ball rolling on. On thinking about this and penciling it out. Like, what is step one?
[00:43:49] Speaker C: Yeah, so I think the first step would be meeting with one of our seed production specialists, whether over the phone or in person, and just kind of going through kind of the options that we offer. As Thomas mentioned, there's a number of different species from grass seed right through to legume seeds. And sort of within that portfolio, there's maybe maybe eight to 10 crops that we're dealing with quite a bit. So. And some of these crops have more fertility demands. Some have requirements for pollination.
So there's a lot of different things to look at. And we kind of sit down with a grower and see what sort of. Maybe what sort of weed issues he might be dealing with, what sort of moisture situation. We're looking at, soil types, things like that, and try to really sort of narrow it down to maybe one or two different species. And if. If that. If after that meeting, the grower wants to move forward, then we will get contracts in place for the production and start talking about delivering foundation or registered seed stock to the farm.
[00:44:57] Speaker A: Okay, so you do go through some agronomic discovery or agronomic discussion about what is not necessarily what does Brett Young need the most acres of, but what works within that. That farm profile or within that land base?
[00:45:17] Speaker C: You bet. You bet. Like I said, there's.
Every crop has got its sort of unique attributes, and we want to try to match those up with. With the specific farm.
[00:45:28] Speaker A: All right, now, is there one that stands out where, you know, as an organization, you're like this. We need a lot of this one. Like, is there one that kind of rises above the rest, that, you know, when all things are equal, this is the one to plant.
[00:45:44] Speaker C: So I think that varies probably by area in western Canada. And in my part of the province, we're dealing with usually adequate to excess moisture. So I think some of the grass seed crops, whether it's the rye grass or fescue or timothy, they tend to do slightly better in a environment with a little bit more. More moisture. So those are ones that we maybe target a little bit more.
But you might get up to northeast Saskatchewan and that's maybe more suited for. For alfalfa or clover seed production. So it really just, like I say, there's demand for all these species, and it's really just a matter of finding the balance between what will grow best on that farm and will work for that grower, and also what we were able to sell.
[00:46:32] Speaker A: All right, Al, so you've been doing this for a fair amount of years, 15 years or so, as you said. And I need to ask, is there like, you know, maybe it's not in a handbook or in a guide, but is there like a. And maybe it is, but a watch out where like a first timer, you're like, all right, this is one thing you really need to keep an eye out for or really need to focus on as you start this seed production journey. Like, is there one thing I would.
[00:47:02] Speaker C: Maybe say if it's not a traditional seed grower that we're working with, then we just emphasize the quality is, is key in a lot of these species that we're growing.
[00:47:14] Speaker A: Sure.
[00:47:14] Speaker C: So obviously growing seed, that seed is going to get planted by another, another producer or in the situation for turf seed by a, by a sod farm or a golf course. And obviously they're looking for purity and that's all comes back to quality. So we want to make sure these fields that the growers are targeting are, are limited or hopefully free of perennial either grass seeds.
Say things like quack grass would be an issue in, in some turf seed production, or maybe Canada thistle might be an issue in alfalfa seed production. So we want to, like I say, just set those sort of requirements early on and try to make sure those fields are. Are set up well for, for the production. So if that means taking an extra year, getting the fields cleaned up a little bit more, I think that's. That sets up the grower and the seed company for success.
[00:48:11] Speaker A: Sure. Sounds good. And is the grower, are they in charge of any of the cleaning, like getting it cleaned to a certain spec, or is that something that happens after?
[00:48:24] Speaker C: Yeah, so that's all done in house at Bright Young. So part of the contract is that once the seed has been harvested we will pick up representative samples from the grower and get those analyzed for quality and germination and, and those things. And then when the requirement for the seed to come in happens, then we'll bring that in and clean up that seed. And then the grower is paid on a, on a clean seed basis after cleaning.
[00:48:55] Speaker A: Okay. All right. And I forgot to ask, storage on farm, is there any special storage required?
[00:49:02] Speaker C: So aeration is critical. Being a seed, we can't put these seed crops through, through a traditional grain dryer to get moisture out of them. So aeration is, is pretty important because if we're harvesting these crops in the heat of the summer, we want to get that field heat out of the seed, of course.
So that doesn't, doesn't cause any issues in, in the bin. And other than that, the storage requirements will vary depending on the species. So a good alfalfa seed crop you might not, you might only need 10 bushels an acre of storage. Where an average crop of perennial ryegrass, you might need upwards of 50 bushels per acre of storage. So really again, that would come back to the initial meeting with the farmer.
[00:49:50] Speaker B: On.
[00:49:52] Speaker C: What the, maybe choosing what species to grow and that will determine how much storage grower will need.
[00:50:00] Speaker A: And is there different grading factors? Like is there, you know, this could be a one, a two or three or something like that. Like is there different factors involved in the purch on the purchasing side?
[00:50:13] Speaker C: Yeah, so, so after cleaning is when we do our final analysis and the species are required to meet the levels in the Canada grade tables. So yeah, we're always shooting for certified number one production and each species that we grow has different requirements for that.
So the big thing going back is that we want to reduce the amount of noxious weeds in the sample, of course, especially the ones that are difficult to separate.
And then we are somewhat limited with some of the crops on what herbicides we can use. So if there is weeds that show up in the sample, we do our very best to clean those out down to clean those to the required grade.
[00:51:03] Speaker A: Okay. All right. And is there a chance where this doesn't make quality and is there a market for that if it doesn't?
[00:51:14] Speaker C: Yeah, so there's, there's always a chance. But that's part of my job and our, our other reps jobs in the summertime is to, to be out visiting these seed production fields and making sure that noxious weeds or, or areas of the field that we think could cause an issue or maybe either rogued throughout the summer or, or either Combined separately or stored separately. So we can sort of look at each lot differently.
So in my 15 years of doing this job, I don't recall not purchasing contract production. We always seem to find a home for it.
Obviously, if it makes the top grade, that's going to be the, the best return on for the grower. But if some issues do pop up and we can't quite make it meet those top specs, we can generally find a home for it.
[00:52:15] Speaker A: Well, a little throwback for me, roguing was my, my first job.
My uncle was a seed grower. So for $2 an hour I would go on rogue fields in the summer. So it was, you gotta start somewhere, right?
[00:52:30] Speaker C: So you bet.
[00:52:32] Speaker A: All right, guys, just kind of one, kind of last one for you.
You know, obviously you've got some, some great support for these growers, obviously in season support as well. I just want to throw that out to make sure that we're on the same page there, which it looks like we are, but from a revenue perspective. And I know this is an impossible question because we're talking about northern Alberta, you know, Peace region to southern Manitoba, everywhere in between, potentially. But like, what could you pencil, pencil out for some type of gross revenue or budget if you're thinking about this?
[00:53:12] Speaker C: Yeah, so like you said, there's, there's a lot of variables that come into play here, but just maybe looking at my particular territory, and you could say it's fairly similar across western Canada, but for a crop like turf type perennial ryegrass, which we've discussed, we like to think of a good average cropping about £1,000 clean per acre. And based on today's market, we're probably looking at about $0.80 per pound. So, so top line revenue, you'd be looking at about $800 an acre.
Um, and your costs would be perhaps very similar to growing a crop of spring wheat. So just to give you a bit of a high level look at it.
[00:53:54] Speaker A: And just to get this one out of my brain as well, if I'm planting this in 26, this is for harvest of 27. Right. Like where that is, that's getting harvested this year. All right.
[00:54:08] Speaker C: Yeah. So all these species that we're dealing with are either biennial or perennial type crops. So, yeah, so, yeah, we're, we're seeding them in May and harvesting the following July and August.
[00:54:19] Speaker A: I'm a crop marketing guy. I, I have to ask this stuff, right? I have to. So you bet, Tom.
[00:54:26] Speaker B: And those crops are typically, it's worth noting that, I mean, in the Establishment year, there's usually a cover crop, so there is a revenue in the establishment year as well.
[00:54:36] Speaker A: Oh, okay. All right.
Say that one for me one more time, Thomas. Sure.
[00:54:44] Speaker B: Our crops are typically perennial or biannual crops, but in that establishment year, we usually, well, almost always have a cover crop along with it. Typically it's wheat or canola in many cases. It varies a little bit by species, but that means the farmer does still have some revenue in the establishment year and doesn't have to go two years and only produce one crop.
[00:55:06] Speaker A: So you might be, for example, planting wheat. You're going to harvest that wheat in 26, the same time you've planted that. That forage or turf product. And, and so you harvest your wheat and then you're.
Pardon me, you're established for some type of harvest in, in the summer of 27.
[00:55:31] Speaker B: Yeah. So if you, like you said, if you planted your wheat and at the same time planted perennial ryegrass with it, you'd harvest your wheat the regular. That fall, and then the next year, you wouldn't have to seed that field. It would start growing in spring, and then you'd harvest it later that summer.
[00:55:50] Speaker A: And, like, would I be looking at it, you know, in the spring, the following year, and saying, this thing could use a little top dress of something? Like, is it, is it as intense as that? Where you may be putting some application down, you know, as you look at establishment that next spring?
[00:56:06] Speaker C: Yeah. So we do come up with a fertility plan for our growers on the seed production fields. And rye grass or tall fescue do require, I would say, similar fertility levels to spring wheat, maybe slightly higher for nitrogen.
And we're quite often doing a split application with maybe 50% of that.
Those nitrogen units going down in the fall and then following those up in the springtime. So.
[00:56:33] Speaker A: All right, fair enough.
[00:56:34] Speaker C: Such an early harvest.
[00:56:35] Speaker A: We.
[00:56:36] Speaker C: We do want to make sure that fertility gets on in plenty time.
[00:56:39] Speaker A: All right. Awesome. Good stuff. Is there anything I'm missing, guys? Anything scary about this that you'd. Or any maybe myths out there that you'd want to squash or.
I don't know, Thomas, Alan, anything else to add to the conversation?
[00:56:53] Speaker C: Yeah, it's. I would say, in my experience, we've.
We have growers that have been doing this for.
For over 30 years, and they've been in the program and they've, They've had what I would consider success over those years. That's why they've stayed in. Stayed in it. And for the, for the new growers out there, that are just starting out or they're just thinking about it. I think anytime you talk about a new crop, it can be a little bit daunting. But that's kind of what we're here for. We, we're our, our support is there right from the start, right from delivering the seed stock through helping out with setting, getting information for setting the drill right through to herbicides, fungicides, swathing, combining all those kind of different things. So, so we're really here to, to help help the new growers out and their success will translate into ours.
[00:57:54] Speaker A: Awesome. Sounds good, Thomas, anything else to add there?
[00:57:57] Speaker B: There's a lot to, to learn and I know a lot of people don't have a lot of familiarity with, with these species. So I mean, best thing we can ask you to do is, is reach out to one of our seed production specialists or, or our website actually has a tremendous amount of resources around specific species that we grow.
If you go to Brett Young CA and there's a tab for seed production, it highlights a number of our key species with some of the agronomic recommendations, best management practices, moisture charts. We've got a seed production guide, we've got some new grower webinar information. So there's, there's tons of information there and more than anything, contact information for your local seed production specialist that can walk you through it.
[00:58:43] Speaker A: Awesome. Sounds great. So again folks, that's brettyoung CA and obviously there's a deadline for when you're gonna plant your crop, but is there a deadline to get the wheels in motion here? Because this just doesn't happen overnight. I would assume you're phoning in April and everyone's like, wait a second, is there a deadline that people should consider?
[00:59:03] Speaker B: Yeah, we don't have a formal deadline. Obviously from a planning perspective, if you get too close to the, to the end of the season when spring. It's going to be challenging to execute for this spring but you know, now's the time to reach out and get the conversation started because in many cases it takes a couple conversations to get comfortable and to find the right fit for your farm and so encourage you to do that sooner than later and hopefully we can find a fit that works.
[00:59:34] Speaker A: Awesome. Well, thanks a bunch guys for joining me. I know I kept you late here. Alan, thank you for the wisdom today and sharing your experience. Welcome Thomas, thank you so much for some perspective here as well. I appreciate it. Open my eyes a little bit more here and look forward to having a follow up conversation, you know.
[00:59:54] Speaker B: Thanks Ryan.
[00:59:55] Speaker C: Thanks Ryan.
[00:59:56] Speaker A: All right, folks, I.
I mean, I'm just. I'm not the smartest guy when it comes to growing stuff, right? And certainly not the one to give advice on how to grow a crop. But I wanted to give the seed production and, you know, there's. There's a few different ones out there, but forage and turf like it. Again, when times get tough, you want to just see what's out there. You got to be a little bit.
A little bit.
I don't know. I like. Unhinged isn't the right word necessarily, but thinking a little differently and checking every, every alley, checking every angle, making sure that you're reviewing to see what's available. And is there other things that can help you in, in growing, you know, having some margin here, some positive returns here in 2026? You know, the more negativity I read right now, actually, the better I feel because I'm thinking, I'm like, we're in it. Like, we are in it, which means we're one day closer to being out of it. And so, all right, like, let's just live it right now. But it's going to be behind us at some point. And so I saw it today. Manitoba Agriculture sent out their crop profitability rankings. And I have not looked at this much in the past, maybe a little bit here and there, but I can't really reference it. But there's 16 crops out in this, in this ranking. You may have seen it, but there's only. Out of 16 crops, there's only one that's profitable.
And it is profitable, profitable by two bucks an acre. Now, I don't know what prices they're using. I just think they have to brush up on their crop marketing and they'd be fine. But I kid, I'm not sure exactly what, what is coming out of this calculation, but peas are the worst, followed by barley. Then they have fall rye. Anyways, the average loss, 8,561 an acre.
Again, I.
I don't know. I'm not this negative in my projections, but it was certainly, certainly interesting and, and hopefully we're just a lot better than, than what this looks like.
I could poke fun at government stuff, but I'll try not to. But anyways, folks, it can be better. It will be better than what they're projecting out there. But that's why you want to bring in some of these different things. Because if you can turn that acre into a profitable acre by thinking of a different crop, then, hey, why not, right?
So I.
I was looking at My crop rankings here the other day and or earlier today actually when I haven't changed them a whole bunch.
I do need to tweak some prices because it's kind of like throwing darts out there right now.
But I still, I see a path to profitability in canola like a positive margin for canola for flax I see a path for maple peas that can be strong.
Oats aren't, aren't too terrible. You look at in this example soybeans, corn, oats, Canola like we're not terribly offline there. They have peas as their worst margin crop and I also have yellow peas as my worst, worst margin crop.
You know I, I sit here and yes the numbers are tough but from a crop rankings perspective again I still see some crops showing some, some profitability here outside of soybeans and actually do the soybean scenario and I'm a little more favorable on wheat than, than what we're seeing out on some of these other projections.
Now I was going to throw average prices out there but that's not going to help you guys a whole bunch. It's already frustrating enough when you hear that feed barley and Edmonton is 550 or peas are 8 bucks and you're staring out your at your screen seeing a buck lower than that or whatever it is. So I'll kind of park that for now.
But what I would say is general theme. Oil seeds on the higher end, some specialty crops. I still am favorable towards the maple peas and I think a high bushel wheat crop, utility wheat, CPS wheat, something like that looks not terrible for my projections. I think if you're growing CPS wheat in Alberta that you can pencil in a number around seven and a half to 775 for a price.
I think that many farms for canola can pencil in between 13 and a half and 14 and a half dollars. I think you could do that well marketing your crop to average those prices.
Malt barley I've got at five and a half that might be a little rich yet.
Yellow peas at 750 oats at 4 bucks that's up to lunch. Now I gotta definitely drop that guy down but anyways.
All right now I wanted to get to eating your veggies here.
We, we got three things for this week. I'm this is a one and then I'm bringing forward from last week again cash flow projections. 12 month cash flow projections.
That is what I want you to focus on here. When the weather gets cold again I cannot stress it enough. It's A starting point for, for your crop marketing plan. And it will set the stage on when you need to sell your crop, get you ahead of the game and, and just not, not get, I don't.
[01:06:19] Speaker C: Know.
[01:06:21] Speaker A: Just not distracted, but a bit more focused. You will be a bit more focused and a bit more dialed in when you write these numbers down and make a plan towards achieving these numbers. Especially like, you know, the Manitoba number, Manitoba egg number at, at 85 bucks.
You know, on our farm of 10,000 acres, you know, $850,000 loss.
I guess I'd have to pick my crops out of that to get a accurate number, which I suppose I could do easy enough.
But it's. If you are penciling, you know, a loss, you gotta figure out when, when does it get to that point where you're. I know it sucks guys, but I, I would, I don't see a lot of, a lot of downside here for the next few months.
And then the last one for this week, the canola market. Now this is tricky guys. Cause I'm recording this Wednesday night. The market is starting to pull back.
I have a funny feeling that by the time you listen to this, we will have lost our gains.
Currently down five bucks as of recording.
Which means on the day we are currently down about $10 from $12 from the high of the day. So that's not great timing.
But what I wanted to say here was trying to thread the needle. The carney visit. Anytime when we get a little like update that there's going to be a visit between the two countries, the markets tend to rally. And so we've seen that.
And now will the news be positive or negative that come out of the meetings?
I know your guess is as good as mine.
I just assume it's going to be a little bit negative when it comes out. We had a great meeting, we all high fived and we promised each other that we'll meet again in six months. Like that's what I expect the headline to be.
So you know, we, then we'd lose that, that premium. But there's a spot here to get a canola sale done. And I know 14 was a magic number. Bunch of people sold at that level blew the doors off the market that day. And hey, that might be the one. That might be the golden sale here for the next little while anyway. So I wanted to say canola market, you have to pay close attention to it and likely move the needle on your canola marketing here over the next few days. So again, chart today, tonight is not looking great, but it's still healthy enough.
Yeah, technically it was still healthy enough. So we'll see by the time you listen to this where we're at. But yeah.
All right, folks, that's it for episode 106 of the what the Futures podcast. Again.
There's a pile of podcasts out there. I really appreciate you hanging out with me for the week. I hope you found value in this week's episode.
We've got got some great stuff coming up. We have a weather update next week with Brett from BAM Weather. We got Lisa with AI3.
We're going to talk about private crop insurance, always an interesting topic for me anyway.
And then I'm working on some stuff here.
I'll leave that alone. But I'm also, there's a few people talking about a commodity super cycle. Now, about three people that I've seen here the last couple days talking about high inflation and a super cycle.
I don't know, guys, I'm hoping I get a few of them on to talk us through their thinking there and help us get ready for that next big bullish market for the what the Futures podcast. My name is Ryan and I'm out of here.