Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Soybean oil is ripping as we get into the later part of January, the highest level since middle of September. I've got Susan Stroud from no Bull Egg joining me this week to talk all about it. Give us a little clarity on what's going on with Biofuel Policy 45Z. Is there something here influencing higher bean oil prices? And in the background, Supporting canola episode 107 coming at you right now.
Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast, your quick guide to better farming decisions.
Welcome back to the what the Futures podcast, folks. Episode 107, recorded in the UPL studio each and every week. Someone said, last week they sent me a note and said, ryan, you got it all wrong. UPL is completely romantic. I said that the deadline for Smart Buy, Smart Buy Rewards, the first deadline is February 15th. That upl wasn't very romantic. But he said, no, in fact, they're very romantic because on February 14, you can take your date, your partner, your spouse, go have a wonderful Valentine's Day, have a wonderful dinner, go to a movie, maybe play a game, whatever you're going to, whatever you're going to do, and then not have to worry about taking care of business till the 15th. So I had it wrong. UPL, you guys are the romantics out there. All right. Lots going on here. This week we hit a thousand subscribers on YouTube. So thank you very much for your support and for hitting that subscribe button. It's not my favorite part of the show saying, hey, hit that subscribe button, why don't you? But hitting a thousand, nothing. I didn't see any fireworks in the distance here year, but the northern lights were beautiful last night. So I'm, I'm thinking that that probably lined up and hey, a thousand and growing. Which again, when I first met with John Deere, I said, I'm doing a podcast. I'm.
I'm not going to actually put it on YouTube. And they're like, you know what, you may want to consider putting it on YouTube. It's kind of a popular platform out there. And now it's at the point where YouTube views or listens double, I'd say, in the first 24 hours, double podcast listen. So, yeah, that's been the evolution here, at least over the last couple of years. I want to talk, I want to talk strategy here right away at the start of the episode. So stay tuned for that. That's coming right around the corner, along with a pet peeve of mine. It's not their fault, but it frustrates me it frustrates me. I'm going to talk about grain contracts and some of the frustration here that I experience, that you experience in Western Canada.
I got a great mail bag question this week from a young listener out in Ontario. So I want to answer that one on the show and I also, I'll just get into it right now. I have an announcement to make for something that I'm, I'm just, I'm super excited about. My theme for 2026 obviously is, is leveling up, but I've also got this unhinged theme happening for Brandon. And we've got a bit of an unhinged update for you.
Starting Tuesday, January 27, come and have coffee with me. 8am cup of coffee with me, Ryan, from what the future is a new show, weekly show happening every single Tuesday, 8am Mountain.
All right, 8am Mountain for a live show. It's going to be 20 minutes long and it's going to cover the headlines, the latest headlines. We'll get through the weekend, we'll get through Monday, we'll talk through the headlines, we'll talk through action that we need to take, maybe dive into some strategy as well, but just talk markets for the beginning part of the week.
All right, now here's the fun part. It's going to be a live show and it's going to have a couple of strict guidelines in it.
When I don't know how we're going to use the sound effects yet, but when, you know, when we get to the 20 minute mark, it's over. It's not going to 30, 35, 40 minutes. It's done, it's 20 minutes. It's a cup of coffee with Ryan. From what the futures, how long does it take you to drink a cup of coffee? I've been timing it all week And I figure 20 minutes is pretty darn safe. All right, now the fun part is I'm sending the invitation, the recording link to all of the analysts, the grain marketing advisors, the brokers, you know, anybody involved in, you know, helping farmers in crop marketing. I'm sending them this recording link and I'm asking one of them to join me at 8:05. I'll start the show, set it up, go through the headlines, and then we will bring them in at 8:05.
The first one that enters the room again, they're just popping in.
They're my guest for the week.
The if two other three other people follow, they get kicked out. It's the first one in is my guest for the week and we're going to talk markets, we're going to talk strategy. There's no back to backs meaning you can't jump on the show one week and be back on the show the next week. We'll make sure of that. That there's no back to backs there. But I won't even know who is joining me that week. And I think it's going to be fun to have people jump into the show to talk markets, talk strategy.
You not know who it's going to be, me not know who it's going to be and, and just see where it goes, see how much fun we can have with it.
The end of the day I could talk Marcus for 20 minutes anyway, but I think we're gonna. The feedback I got so far is some excitement. So again that's cup of coffee with me and, and guests. Tuesday mornings 8am Mountain. It's going to be live on YouTube, live on social media. So if you see I've got, you know the what the Futures logo is has a live circle around it. The show is on. You're going to get if you're on the email list. If you're not, now's a good time to join it. What the Futures podcast ca join the email list because you'll get an email five minutes before the show starts saying hey, we're going to rock and roll here. Right away.
Here is the link. All right, social media, YouTube.
In your email you will get the notification. It's going to be a lot of fun. I'm looking forward to it. Each and every Tuesday, 8am Mountain and I'm excited to see how many analysts and gray marketing advisors join the show here over, over the next six months to a year. Just see what happens. All right. It's going to be unscripted.
Try to keep it a family show but it might get passionate at times. Might be it's going to be a little more free flowing than, than the Friday with the Futures podcast. Not saying this isn't free flowing but you know what I mean. You know, we'll all experience it January 27th for the first time and yeah, you'll, you'll certainly let me know. All right, positive moments here for the week before we talk strategy. Uh, well, Chantel's birthday this week. I'm a gentleman. I'm not going to say what age she turned because you know she's doing, doing great, doing great for her age. Looking great. Of course we had a wonderful dinner down at Sabor in Edmonton. If you are are visiting Edmonton and looking for like Fine dining.
A really good place to, to grab a meal. Sabor, Chilean sea bass, lobster risotto. Like those are my go to's. We had a great dinner and, and it's fun. It's fun celebrating a birthday when you have kids because you know, the kids we decorated the night before. We sent mom up to bed early. We decorated and wrapped gifts and all that stuff. And, and I gotta, I gotta have a chat with the kids. So they, they, they gotta work on, on keeping. Keeping some secrets here.
But anyways, I, I'm driving back from Sherwood park and as a joke I thought for Finley's birthday we blew up the number three. His bouquet of balloons. And I thought it would be fun to, to blow up her age right with those big numbers. So kind of for kind of went overboard and I jam these things in the cab of the truck and I'm driving home. I'm actually on a call. I just hang up the call and I'm not far from home. Bang.
Like gunshots.
What the ducking.
The number nine just blew up right by my ear. I'm still, there's still like a ringing sensation.
I don't think that was from the pump up music I was listening to before hitting the record button. But there still that sensation. The nine blows up.
The three is fine. The three is completely good. The rest of the balloons are fine. But I'm like, well what, what are we going to do here? Like now it's just a three. And Finley's jacked because he's like another three. Like it's me, it's for me.
And he ends up running upstairs and he's like mom, we got the same number. And he was so excited. Anyways, some of the balloons are blank. I took a marker, I wrote nine on them and it looked a little hillbilly, but. But we got through it and a great birthday and it was fantastic. So that was positive moment. Now anyways, my other positive moment.
You know when you're kids, you got little kids that are growing up and you have to start. They want to play with you and they want to be with you the whole time. And, and, and then all of a sudden you get the little bit of, of independent play starts to happen and the creativity and they start to occupy themselves which is, you know, it's fun. It's great to play with your kids and be down on hands and knees and playing farming and whatever. Dr. And it's great. But it's also really cool to see them grow and play independently. And so Finley loves Lining all his stuff up. Now he's got the auction row. It's just lined up every single evening in our house.
But the other day I was in the kitchen, he's in the other room, and I could hear him singing. And he was singing a song called the Best Day Ever, which is, I think it's from like the Super Puppies or the Super Kitties or something. I don't know. It's these.
You get it if you have little kids. I, I, my algorithm for music is way out of whack. But anyway, best day ever. And he's just with his little voice in the other room singing, best day ever. And just on and on and going through. And I just pause and listen to him. And I, I thought it was so special. I gave him a little side eye. He gave me a side eye. He's like, are you listening to me, dad?
But it was great. That independent play is just awesome, awesome to see them do that. So anyway, those are my positive moments for this week. All right, Pet peeve.
It, it is, it is the confusion.
So if you can imagine this, you have, I don't know how many locations you have, but whatever. You have five locations, 10 locations, 20 locations.
You have a central house that you create grain contracts, all sorts of grain contracts and, and what they call them, OTCs, over the counter type options.
You create this stuff and then in the country, so you got main head office, whatever, creating this stuff.
And in the country you've got all these locations and you'll get to one location where they're like, maybe they're very driven on like the budget that they need to hit.
You know, maybe they're very like, excited about the bonus potential. So they dive into it, right? They're like, yeah, let's learn these things. Let's make some money.
And then you got the ones that are like, oh, this is really cool. It's going to help my growers. I'm going to dive into this. And they don't care so much about the money, but they, they dive into it, right? And they get good at it. And then you get to locations where they don't, they don't care at all. They, they, it's not, maybe it's not a focus or whatever it is, but they could care less. They don't know what you're talking about. When you, when you present them with this strategy, you're like, it's on your website. Like, it's right there. You, you have one pagers by your coffee pot.
Anyways, this is Actually, not a complicated one. This was just a basis contract.
So the cool thing about this rally in, in the market is that for the Canola market is that futures are rallying while basis is improving.
And so talking to some farms where movement in January, February, super important, it's obviously going to be off March futures.
And so the general. If you wanted to paint it with one number, the general rule of thumb is that you have to price that basis contract by February 15. All right? You can deliver it, you can haul it in, but by February 15th, you need to price or roll. You could roll it to me, right?
And so I get a girl like, hey, this base is special to fill all these cars. I'm like, yep, that's good. Let's grab it. And he's like, I gotta price it by January 28th. Like, why, why, why January 28th? Like, it's just a basis contract. It's off March futures.
And so he's like, I don't know. Phones, like, phones. He's like, no, they said like, before I haul it, I need to price it. And by the 28th, I need to price this thing.
All right? I'm like, maybe something changed here. Said I'm used to a futures first contract where you have to price lock in basis prior to delivery. And with some organizations, it's 30 days prior to delivery.
So I'm like, okay, maybe this person's confused, thinking we're trying to do a futures contract when we're trying to do a basis. So anyways, I'm like, okay, I'll talk to.
I work for Cargill. I know people there.
I know some people that work there for 20 years. I'm just going to reach out to a person and find out, hey, if I do a basis contract with you, when do I have to price a buy? And of course they come back with February 15th.
Now, it's not necessarily a big deal, but we're talking about some pretty basic, like a pretty basic thing. Not a lot of moving parts.
Then a pretty basic contract that is not really that complicated, but yet die on the hill.
Can't remember the guy's name from up north, but die on the hill.
I'm not changing my opinion. This is what it, the, the rule is.
And I, I go back to my prayers. I'm like, are you sure? Like, is there something special that we're missing? And she's like, Nope.
February 15th, Ryan, I could write it up for you right now for that guy. Like, let me know. So it's a pet peeve of Mine, because this type of stuff, like if you're an organization that's going to put out different contracts. And now I want to talk about something strategy wise here in a second that's even a little fancier.
But it is really hard as a farmer, as a grower that is putting themselves out there to try different things, to manage risk on their farm, to manage margins, to think outside the box, to do something they've never done before and get different answers with the same company at different locations.
I can't stress it enough. If you're a grain company out there that is can't train your people on this, then I'd just take it down. I just take it down or, or centralize it. Have everybody phone the same person, for crying out loud. There's not that many of these things that get done on any given day have the same person answer those phone calls. But it costs money, it costs time, it costs money and a lot of back and forth for nothing. All right, that's my pet peeve. Haven't had a pet peeve in a while, but that one's just driving me bonkers this week. It's a basis contract. Come on, guys, get it together.
All right, let's, let's talk strategy here. Now this canola market.
So the, the chart for me, I said last week I'm closer to sell selling than.
And moving some sales along than, than anything. Like I'm, I'm watching this and, and getting anxious to, to maybe sell something.
And I know a lot of growers have, I know a lot of growers have both the lunchbox career. I've been telling them. All right, guys, like, the chart still looks good here. Being oil's looking good, you know, crude for the most part's been looking good. Like there's no sell signal yet for me. And I, I saw a couple recommendations this week. The technical guys I got, I understand why they sold. We had a little bit of weakness on.
Oh, that would have been Tuesday. And those little technicals, they're like, boom, boom, boom, fire, fire, fire. Like sell. And I get it because the chart's going up. You get that little bit of weakness. And I was sitting there too, like, yeah, like this is. If this doesn't have a good day tomorrow, like, this is definitely to me a sell signal.
And as of recording here, the market had a dandy of a day. And even tonight it's still holding its gains up slightly, though the March contract's trading at 6.47.80. Now, the one reason I'm not getting super excited yet. And my buddy Tyler made a canola sale here the other day. And Tyler's, he's eager. He's eager. He's in Hawaii. He's not gonna listen to this, but he's eager to maximize his strategy, maximize his opportunity on canola. So he's like, Ryan, if I. This market's still going up, like, do I need to buy futures or a call or something? Like, what do you think? And I'm like, whoa, just pump the brakes here. Because the day he sold was January 16th. January 16th the market hit 6:51:10.
All right. Now, even though it's been showing strength and again, we had that weakness on Tuesday, it's still, right now it's trading at 640, 780.
So for him, he still, he nailed, he nailed it. He had a target in and he nailed it. It was great. Good job, Tyler. Like, that's awesome. So I want to see it close above that. And then it enters this.
I don't take like a five year weekly chart. If you take that five year, I, I take that chart and I look, I draw a line at like 6:50 to 6:70, like in there.
And to me over the last three years, like that is a kind of a sweet spot to try to get some sales done. We, we break above it last spring, obviously when we go on that run. But outside of that, I could be wrong, but in the last two years, I don't think we go well, definitely not in the two years. Our high is 670.
Now we could throw a 678 in there if I go to a three year.
Oh yeah, you got that 20, 23 stuff in there. So the last couple years anyways, just, I don't know, it's like a 650, 660 region. 670, 675, like right in there to me is a interesting spot to potentially get some sales on. So anyways, it's a fun market because it's rare that basis improves while futures rally. But obviously things have changed here.
And yeah, I've totally wrong on last week's episode, guys, I was not as optimistic. And yeah, it's what happens when you record on a Wednesday and then Friday the world changes. But anyways, for the good, we'll take it.
So I'm very close. But anyways, this was a great conversation this week on strategy.
And I, I know that I'm going to try to keep this oversimplified because I'm not that smart. And so I this is the way I think about it. But I was chatting with Ron and so Ron is getting Ron Farms in Manitoba. He's getting into options like he, he is, he is educating himself for NS Farm on incorporating option strategies to help him navigate cash flow and manage risk.
And so our conversation this week turned to, to put contracts, put options.
And the one thing that I, I don't think a lot of people realize but, and even though I just tried to tear them down a few minutes ago, like everybody has a comfort level on percent sold. For some of you it may be 0% sold. But for this example we'll say it's 25%.
I don't care what the bushels are, we're going to say 25%.
So you decide in this rally and this where this market has been 13 and a half, 14, 14 and a half, you are pricing 25% of your canola hypothetically. All right, this isn't advice at this moment. So you've sold the 25%.
Now with a few companies out there, Cargill Vitera talked about this on past episodes.
But you could apply, you could buy a put option. So walk with me for a second.
But let's say the canola market.
[00:22:38] Speaker B: We.
[00:22:38] Speaker A: Catch lightning in a bottle.
November futures go from 660 to 700.
And in your mind for your operation, 700 is just, it's a non negotiable, like you need to protect 700.
But you're sitting there saying, well I'm 25% sold. I'm not really willing to, to go above that. That is in my crop marketing plan. That is my number until it rains in May or the crop germinates or whatever it is.
But what you could do is if you have sold this canola to a company that offers a put option strategy, it could be a Cargill, a Bungie, it used to be ADM back in the day. Maybe it is again.
You could attach a put option to that 25%.
Up to that level, up to 25%. So if we if catch lightning in a bottle, the market goes to 700. You could say, well I actually I don't want to sell anything but 700 is so important to me. I want to protect it. Like how can I protect it? Well, you could attach a put option.
The equivalent tonnage bushels like 25%.
So then you would be 25% sold physically and you would have 25% hedge protected with the put option with $700 strike, let's say. So you'd be kind of 50% protected, but only exposed on delivering 25%, you haven't extended your exposure at all on the physical side, but you've protected more bushels. Now you say, well Ryan, what happens if I sell 50% of my croplet? What happens if I'm sitting here in June and I'm comfortable? 50% sold. Well, you could go as high as the same bushels tonnage percent on a put. You could be a hundred percent protected without brokerage account. Now the brokers are screaming at their phones right now saying, ryan, this is crazy. Just have them call us. Like we can buy a put and sell a put or buy a put and sell a call or whatever. There's all sorts of strategies out there with them. And you're right and it's cheaper and it's a lot easier to do.
You know, I, I ring that the bell all the time, like brokerage account, ding, ding, ding, like get that done for your farm.
But if you, if you don't have the funds, cash flow is super tight out there. If you don't have the desire to open up an account, if maybe you're just using this as like a gateway to see how it goes, and then use that as maybe potentially opening up account an account in the future, whatever it is, this is available to you now and you don't have to pay for it until you deliver your canola. So it's financed. You know, you're using somebody else's money in this example.
So when you deliver that 25% in the fall, that's when they would deduct the put option.
If you have made money on that put and you have sold it or exited that option, then they would add dollars and cents at that time for you. But you don't have to worry about the financial side until you're done. Deliver. Now, as I say on the show all the time, please reach out to your local grain companies, talk through it with them.
There's sort different brand names out there, different ways that they want to approach it. Your location may be one of them that isn't super excited about it and doesn't know much about it. So you may have to phone another location or have them get educated on it, or you might phone the one that sees that bonus at the end of the day and is really excited about it. And yes, there is financial incentive for these folks out there. I, I kid you not. Like it's there, it's there, but for the most part you got to be cautious on what's coming your way right? Like there's no free lunch. Like, be cautious of what's coming your way. If you dream up the strategy, then their, their heart's in a good spot and your head's in a good place and away you go. So, anyways, I want to talk about it because, you know, you just never know what's going to happen over the next days and weeks. I certainly don't know.
But I know that for our farm, there are numbers there, you know, that. Take my strike price minus the cost of my option, my premium, my basis. If that gets me to profit, profitability on my canola crop in 2026, I'm going for it. Right? I'm definitely going for it.
Now, Manitoba Crop Insurance came out, gave us a little gift here as well, at what, 14.75 or 14.79 for canola for your crop insurance. But that's, I'll save that discussion here for the next couple of weeks. All right, folks, that's it for a strategy here for this week. Any questions? Ryanothefuturespodcast say, hit me up if you think I've explained that completely wrong. Let me know.
Love to hear from you. And if you want to know more or hear more, yeah, send me a note. So let's get into it with Susan Stroud here from Noble. Then we'll do the mailbag eating your veggies.
I got some green pricing updates for you, and then I'll tell you what's coming up next.
In future episodes of what the Futures. Susan Stroud. Here we go. Alrighty, folks, let's welcome back Susan Stroud to the what the Futures podcast. Susan, how's it going?
[00:28:20] Speaker B: Pretty good. How are you?
[00:28:22] Speaker A: I'm doing just fine. We are. Our house is going through like a two strain flu cold thing, so we thought we were good last week and then boom, the this next thing hits us. And it's been a quiet weekend at the Denis household, so. But other than that, pretty good.
What's going on in your world here in 2026? We're three weeks into the year.
Has it been pretty quiet for you? You're staying busy.
[00:28:51] Speaker B: Staying busy. So this time of, this time of year is my busiest time of year for spe travel speaking engagements, which I saw you just a little over one month ago in my first trip to Canada. It was so nice and, and balmy.
Not really. No, not quite fantastic. Fantastic event, though. I really appreciated the invitation and I had a great time with your group. You definitely had some characters in the crowd, which adds to things, but, yeah, so big, big transition underway at Noble as the calendar turned to 26. And so a lot of people are used to receiving updates from me off of Substack and I made the decision to move off of Substack as we turn to the New year.
So now if you go to nobleag.com that's and click Market Insights, that's where all updates are located.
The other big change is that I began offering an additional higher tier of service that takes a deeper dive into things. And so I still have the standard updates twice a week, the Wednesday Hot Take and the Weekender, but the Pro plus tier of service ads, I'm kind of referring to it as a research suite. So it brings in a few things that are for those that you just don't want to stay informed with what's going on. But it's kind of the idea behind it is that you're able to stay ahead of the move and you're not reading things after the fact. So Quick Hits is one piece of that. These are really short updates. I think I've been averaging two to three a week here the past few weeks. And so kind of like we'll talk about soybean oil later, I believe. Thursday I sent out two Quick Hits because soybean oil was doing, was doing wild things. And so it was important to kind of get out ahead of that and explain what was going on.
The other updates are a quarterly update. And so this is a professional PDF document that's, I don't know, 15 pages in length and it covers most grain, oil, seeds, biofuels and everything in between.
A nice quarterly recap and then gives you something to kind of look forward to as we move into the next quarter and forward looking statements. And then right now I'm working on an update to send out later this week, Noble Insights. So these are kind of the deeper dives that are very specific, subject specific. So in this case it is called a biofuels blast. And in this one right now, walking through or working on walking through the big changes that happen within US biofuel policy as we went from 24 into 25. What happened in 25 and then now what we have to look at here in early 26 because we had a lot of changes again take effect January 1st this year.
[00:32:04] Speaker A: So did you just figure out how to put in like more hours each day or more hours in the week? Like did you find an, an eighth day in the week somehow to put out more content? Like when are you, when you have time to do this?
[00:32:17] Speaker B: I I don't, yeah, having to become much more efficient, what I'm doing, especially with this time of year, traveling a lot. But I do feel like it's, feel like there's a need for it. It's still at a price point that doesn't break the bank. And I think that, I think it's just refreshing. You have a lot of different broker groups or different groups out there that they put out deeper research and that kind of thing. But I enjoy visuals. I like using pictures and charts to really help tell the story. And I also like to cut out the fluff because there's a lot of fluff in market analysis. So I'm excited about it and it's, it's been a little bit of a painful transition, but I think had a lot of good feedback. So. So I'm excited. I think it brings a lot of value.
[00:33:16] Speaker A: Well, you like creating the visuals and I like seeing the visuals, so I definitely appreciate that.
So folks, you can check that out. What's your website again?
[00:33:25] Speaker B: Noelag.com.
[00:33:28] Speaker A: There we go. Perfect. All right, sounds great. Sounds great, Susan. So we'll get to those Thursday quick hitters in just a second, but we've got three weeks into January, we've got bean oil up over 8%, canola up over 6%.
You know what, what's happening here is there, we've got crude up as well, USD is up. Is there something going on that we turned the calendar to 2026 and oil seeds got a little rosier, like what happened?
[00:34:03] Speaker B: Yeah, I think it's a combination of a lot of things. So you have, you know, the, anytime that you have strength in energy markets, that's by default beneficial for oil seeds. And it's because when you have expensive or more expensive or rallying energies, that by default will improve biofuel margins, biofuel blending margins in particular. And so that's always a good thing.
We've also seen that the RIN market D4 RINs for biomass based diesel, they're also firm. And a lot of that is as we turn the page here, from 2025-26, market expecting larger blending mandates eventually to come out of the EPA. And I think that some of that backlog from 2025 and prior, we've finally worked through that. And so that's another source of strength. But for the most part, really the, the move is based on this idea that we will finally have some clarity as far as biofuel policy goes with the EPA at some point here, probably, probably in early March, according to the latest Reuters report, but hopefully have those long awaited biofuel mandates that are at this point all signs are pointing to larger mandate and the economics and things feedstock economics in general are more friendly for crop based biofuels like soybean oil and canola oil. In 2026, as we turn the calendar to 26 new 45Z amendments went in place. The two biggest pieces of that would be that first off, we've removed the indirect land use change penalty from crop based feedstocks. And so that means for soybean oil based fuels, it nearly doubles to triples the amount of the per gallon credit that could be received.
And then also for canola oil, Canola is actually brought into the mix because if you remember 45Z during 2025, the original version canola oil had a, the resulting fuel made from canola oil had a carbon intensity score that was too high to qualify for any subsidies under 45Z. So now that, that, that ilock has been removed, canola oil suddenly has value again.
So it's something like 20 to 22 cents. So it's less than what soybean oil can receive as a credit, but it is something. And so something is always better than nothing.
And the other piece of it that's important is that we put a limit on what feedstocks are. The, the origin of feedstocks that would receive credits in 45Z. And so we have that North American ring fence, so it's only US Canadian and feedstocks from Mexico that will qualify under 45Z. So those things all together really important. And that's also where some of that strength is coming from.
[00:37:34] Speaker A: So used cooking oil out of, out of China is still on the outside.
[00:37:39] Speaker B: Looking in correct use cooking oil out of anywhere is on the outside looking in use cooking oil is the, the one feedstock that continues to be excluded from 45Z no matter the origin. And all of that goes back to traceability. You, you know, we, we don't have any way at this point or they're working to find some sort of, sort of method so we can tell if what is imported as used cooking oil is in fact used cooking oil.
[00:38:11] Speaker A: Right? Yeah.
Okay, so is this, when I first, you know, saw the headlines, I thought, oh, this is bad. This is going to be bad for, for, for soybean oil because it looks like canola's got a path forward here.
But it is it in fact kind of a windfall for soybean oil and for canola. Like am I seeing this wrong? Is this great for everybody.
[00:38:42] Speaker B: It's a big deal because you also have to consider that we've been importing record amounts of tallow. For instance, Brazil being one of our, the biggest origins of US tallow imports. So suddenly that goes from being one of the, you know, tallow is one of the feedstocks that receives the highest amount of credits under 45Z. And now with these amendments since we are subject only, you know, we can only do Mexico, Canada or U.S. tallow. So Brazil's tallow, it no longer qualifies. And so that leaves a, A you know, that leaves a hole to fill. So when you start to kind of look at it that way, really it's rising tide lifts all boats and in this case it's because it's reduced kind of reduced availability or you're the thankfully policy for once it's picking and choosing and it's favoring these domestic or you know, more domestic friendly feedstocks.
[00:39:52] Speaker A: So when like oh man, this is going to be a dumb question, but.
[00:39:59] Speaker B: There are no dumb questions.
[00:40:00] Speaker A: Is this still like how formed is this or how confident are you in, in the state of these proposed changes?
[00:40:10] Speaker B: Okay, like well so, so there's two different. Keep in mind we have two very different things.
So we have one thing that's set in stone and done and that's 45Z. These changes take effect.
Took effect.
[00:40:25] Speaker A: Took effect.
[00:40:25] Speaker B: Okay, one, so we know this is, this is a net positive for crop based feedstocks and even I should mention like us corn ethanol or corn going into ethanol production. Ethanol now qualifies for a 10 or 11 cent per gallon credit under 45Z because of the removal of eye look. So that's also a beneficial thing. So crop based biofuels just received a boost and that is set in stone. Those things we know. So that's the piece over here that we actually know. What we don't know is what we've been waiting on for you know the initial proposal was released last in the Summer June by EPA for the renewable fuel standards RVO for 20, 26 and 27. RVO stands for renewable volume obligation. In other words it says how much of each of these different classes of biofuels will we have to blend? What is the mandated volume requirement to be blended in with petroleum supplies in calendar year 20, 26 and 27. So that's completely separate from the tax credit scheme with 45Z. All that dubs is just incentivize production.
So that's like added, you know that as far as biofuel the numbers, the breakdown goes, that's, that's added to your margin. It doesn't have anything to do with EPA actually saying this amount of biofuel is what the requirement is for 2026. Okay, so that's the piece of it that we're waiting on is EPA to finally say, okay, you have to blend X amount or it has to be X amount of wrens. That's what we're waiting on. And so the problems or kind of the timeline here, what we've been through with epa, first they proposed, and the, the biggest thing, not only did they propose these, what would translate to much higher volumes of biomass based diesels, which is a net benefit for soybean oil and canola oil because that's what you're making biomass based diesels out of in addition to waste fats and things.
But the biggest piece of it was that they said, okay, you know what we are, and they said they, they're linking declining farm incomes, however you want to try to connect the dots there, but they explicitly linked the influx of foreign fats and waste oils into the US to make biofuels. They linked it to declining farm incomes and they are saying, okay, this is competition for our soybean oil. That means that that's, this is hard on our farmers because we're importing these waste fats and greases.
So their answer to that was proposing along with those higher mandates that we will, we will only let any foreign derived fuels. So that means fuels produced outside of the US or fuel fuels produced in the US From a foreign feedstock, they will only generate a half rent. So they take a big ding if you are producing with an imported feedstock.
Fast forward several months, we also had EPA come out and say, hey, we're cleaning up these small refinery exemptions that have been hanging around for several years.
And then after that they also came out and said, okay, 20, 23, 24, and then the years after we are going to take those volumes that the refiners had said hey, this, it's, it's too much of a financial hardship on us to blend the required amount of biofuels in with petroleum fuel supplies. So we are petition, we are petitioning for small refinery waivers or exemptions. EPA came and said, okay, you know what, we are going to consider these waivers for these potential waivers for 23, 24 and 25, but we are going to also consider any waived amounts that we would tack those volumes on as supplemental volumes to the 26 and 27 blending requirements. So in other Words it meant instead of just saying no, okay, never mind, you don't have to blend X amount of biofuels, that blending requirement just go away. They're going to potentially reallocate it by saying, okay, we're going to add these supplemental volumes and tack them on for 26 and potentially 27.
That's a good, that's a, a good thing. Instead of just making those volumes go away. But right now what we're faced with, the biggest questions is we still don't know what those may be.
So Thursday last week when soybean oil closed up 4% which was a massive move, a lot of that was tied to a news report that said EPA would soon finalize. They're in the, the final steps for the mandates for 26 and potentially 27, I'm not sure, said that those would be out sometime in early March. They also said that epa, according to their sources had decided to table the idea of penalizing any import related fuels. So imported finished fuels or any fuels that are made in the US from imported feedstocks.
It seems like kind of a crazy thing, the bean oil market shot up 4% when you consider the implications if we are not putting that 50% WREN haircut on foreign derived fuels because ultimately that's more competition against fuels that would be made from soybean oil or canola oil.
I think kind of a combination of a few things. First of all, it's this idea and who knows, Reuters has been wrong plenty of times before with their infamous scoop that says sources that don't want to be named. But regardless, here we are.
You know, it's just the idea though that okay, we're finally going to let the market do its job.
Soybean oil and you know, and canola falls victim by default. But these markets have been stuck and suppressed because they really don't know what to do. I mean, imagine we're already in January, worst three, three weeks into a new year.
And renewable producers, they don't know what feedstock they should buy and they don't want to commit to anything further out because they have no idea what, what their RIN generation looks like, what the economics of biofuel production looks like. And we don't have clear policy in place. And so I think the soybean oil market was finally able to breathe. And now a lot of people are looking at it and like, wait a second, this report says that EPA is going to scrap or at least delay this ding on foreign feedstocks or foreign fuels by at least a year. Or two, that's definitely a bearish thing for soybean oil. But I think just the general relief that we would have some sort of something along the way.
I think the other piece of it too is you look at the structure of the market, soybean oil from a managed money perspective. Funds have never been this short soybean oil to start a calendar year.
[00:48:36] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:48:37] Speaker B: So that also kind of lends way to short covering and fast moves. And soybean oil also you see really large exaggerated moves that are based on headlines.
One, because it's, it's a policy driven market. But two, because I think a lot of people, I mean it's complicated. I, it's complicated enough that I get confused from time to time and I'm supposed to be the one that knows what she's talking about. So I think that you have, yeah, I say that for illustration purposes. But I also, I think you have a lot of people. It's kind of like fool's Russian to soybean oil. And you see a lot of people that are trading a position one way or the other. And I am not certain that they know exactly why they are trading it the way that they are trading it because it is such a complex market.
[00:49:33] Speaker A: So there's a lot there.
There's a lot there to go back.
[00:49:40] Speaker B: Yeah, I probably should have like set a point. Shut up for some clarification.
[00:49:47] Speaker A: Hey, the listeners, they can hit the rewind button and listen a few times to get all those points.
[00:49:52] Speaker B: Nuisance. I ask myself all the time how did I get into this? Because there's so many weird nuances.
[00:50:03] Speaker A: Just think of how bored you're going to be when all this is clarified and cleared up, at least temporarily. You're going to be like, you know what?
Rest of the year I, yeah, you know, it's going to be way less exciting. So there you go.
[00:50:15] Speaker B: Well, I, especially with the current administration that we have there will we still have three years to go before maybe there's a light at the end of the tunnel and things aren't quite as we'll call it, exciting.
[00:50:28] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:50:30] Speaker B: But in general though the, you know, when we look at veg oils as a whole, it the growth of industrial or biofuel use, you know, it's not just here in the US we have rising global mandates.
A lot of those are coming from the anything that's biomass based diesel or sustainable aviation fuel that is made out of fat. You know a fat or an oil or a waste grease or something like that. So it's not Just us here in the US or you know, necessarily you in Canada. It's, this is a recurring theme and I think it's going to the policy piece of it. The policy is becoming even more intertwined in our ag markets. So it's not going away.
And unfortunately, as complicated and confusing as it is, it's probably just going to get more worse as we move forward.
[00:51:33] Speaker A: Great, great. More complex and worse. Thank you.
[00:51:36] Speaker B: Yeah, but it's a good thing. I mean it's a good thing overall for canola oil too. So I think, yeah, you have to, you have to smile because it's a new, it's new demand and it's not necessarily stealing from food demand, but it's new demand on top of existing demand. And so I think longer term that, that bodes very well for not only the soybean market, but for canola as well.
[00:52:08] Speaker A: Just a couple more here for you. I know we're going if you have a few minutes. I'll go a little bit later if you have time.
[00:52:14] Speaker B: But I didn't mean to ramble on so long about the most complicated yet boring topic in the entire world.
[00:52:21] Speaker A: Hey, that's my, my listeners are wondering, you know, how should, how should we be bullish? Canola and for what reasons? Like, we'll talk about China here in just a second. But that was the big question, like, hey, is there something going on here that should, that should we be feeling better moving into 2026? And I was like, well, we'll get Susan Stroud on and figure it out.
Okay, so just two quick ones. First one, the Mexico, US Canada, is that the Kuzma, the trade deal that's keeping that in intact? When you say like Brazil's tallow, you know, maybe not coming into the US or not having a credit or benefit, is it the trade deal that's holding that together? Because that darn thing's in limbo or could be in limbo here this year.
[00:53:11] Speaker B: Yeah, you bring up a really good point.
You know, the way that it is written in.
Let me read to you specifically the way that it is written in the, the ex. So called extension and modification of 45Z.
So it says first prohibition of foreign feedstocks and says the, the fuel is exclusively derived from a feedstock which was produced or grown in the United States, Mexico or Canada.
So it really, it doesn't mention anything that would be related to the policy or trade agreement that, that ties those three nations. Although you do bring up a fantastic point because I believe that is up for renegotiation in the summer of 26. And I can only imagine what kind of fun we're going to have between now and then.
[00:54:10] Speaker A: Yeah. I, I don't think we can speculate because there's so many things going on. So. All right.
[00:54:15] Speaker B: That, that's a good thing. I mean, the, the whole US Mexico, Canada thing was for Jersey.
[00:54:22] Speaker A: Yeah.
So in, in your weekender in when we'll talk about China in one, you know, one article is China weaponizing soybean purchases or.
I probably didn't say that. Right. And then the next one is the thaw between China and Canada.
What's going on with China when it comes to the two, these two countries.
[00:54:50] Speaker B: Yeah.
And I guess now I realize that I kind of put them stacked together. So we did. There was a really interesting op ed that came from White House adviser Peter Navaro. It was in the Hill last week and it was quote, quote, how to it was titled how to Disarm China's Weaponized Sweeping Purchases. And it actually, he's, he's arguing and I feel like this is a, there's no coincidence in the placement of this and the timing of this. Wink, wink.
He's arguing that higher biofuel mandates and expanded domestic crush capacity will disarm China and kind of be the savior for Ukraine. U.S. soybeans.
That's great in theory. And, and I mean, I think it's a fantastic way to get there, but China on average takes one. It represents one in every four bushels of US Soybean demand. It's very difficult to, we don't have the physical ability to actually fully replace China, but that's an argument for another day. Yeah, it is a good thing, though. But so, yeah, it, I think that it was really interesting now that we're seeing like US And China relations kind of stall. And then maybe you could even consider we took a step back after President Trump said that he will put additional tariffs on any country that does business with Iran. That was early last week. M.
Yeah. And so now you're seeing that Canada and China are potentially that relationship is thawing, which has been an interesting, interesting shift.
I mean, that's a, a fantastic thing for Canadian canola producers.
You know, China, no matter, no matter the relationship or how they, they treat other nations or the ebbs and flows, whatever it may be, China is the largest market in the world for commodities. And so I'm not saying that it's fantastic to be in bed with China, but it's definitely better to be on good terms with China. Than not when it comes to demand for ag commodities.
[00:57:16] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:57:17] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:57:17] Speaker A: And we'll see how it goes.
The markets did, you know, have a lift late in the week, but even the day of the announcement of the it's a 15% tariff now potentially starting March 1 on Canadian canola, the market did kind of take a step back even with that announcement. So it wasn't the big move higher that you would maybe expect because 15% is still a, a real number and a big number. So.
But yeah, it's changing dynamics in front of us here right now. And yeah, small win for Canadian canola growers for, for this week and we'll buckle up for what's coming next at us. But just to wrap it all up here, if you're growing soybeans in the U.S. canola in Canada, Susan Stroud, how are you feeling about market direction moving into 2026? Are you feeling a bit more favorable, a bit more bullish?
Are you feeling kind of negative towards, towards these latest updates or headlines, or are you kind of sitting here neutral?
[00:58:29] Speaker B: I think that the end of last week and then particularly in this kind of, this puts the focus back on the US but end of last week into, over the weekend when we saw Trump come back in and suddenly he's, he's picked a, a handful plus of European nations that he's decided to get back into some sort of trade war or, you know, open that can of worms again. And it all has to do with Greenland.
[00:59:00] Speaker A: Y.
[00:59:03] Speaker B: It's just a reminder that, that markets are fragile. And, you know, we, we're back to this whole we wake up in a new world every day. And the crazy thing, I mean, that's what it feels over, you know, over the weekend as I was writing out the update.
[00:59:22] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:59:23] Speaker B: And like, wow, fundamentals just went out the window again. And here we are, we're right back to where we started trading headlines. Now, I don't know how markets necessarily react come I guess later tonight because we're holiday.
[00:59:39] Speaker A: Holiday.
[00:59:40] Speaker B: But yeah, it's just, it's, you know, when you, when you have, when you have uncertainty, you know, uncertainty does one of two things to a market. Uncertainty can be like when Russia invaded Ukraine and we saw wheat go to $14.
And a lot of that is the uncertainty, the unknown of how long does this last, how much does it impact things? And, you know, and then we had to get to the point with wheat where they finally expanded limits enough that those that wanted out could actually get out. Kind of like how soybean oil, salt was allowed to breathe end of last week and it made a huge move. Now uncertainty also makes things drop or grind lower.
[01:00:28] Speaker A: Yep.
[01:00:28] Speaker B: I think that that's kind of, we're, we're kind of back to that a little bit as we head into this next week.
So it's really, it's just a challenging time overall because a lot of focus right now on what do you plant for 26, what's the, you know, it's not what will make me the most money in most cases, it's what's going to lose me the least amount of money per acre and 26. And so that's really where the focus starts to shift. I also think that it's especially challenging because we're back at these somewhat depressed price points and for us here in the US we're getting ready to start the February averaging period for the base price for crop insurance for 26.
These other things that kind of set the tone and yeah, it's just, it's difficult. And the fact that we were throwing water on the fire here. If we start to re. Engage in these trades bats with all of our major trading partners yet again.
[01:01:42] Speaker A: Yeah, no, I think just my last two comments from a crop marketing perspective, going down to figuring out your numbers, your margins, executing that plan almost regardless of all the noise out there. But just focusing on profitability for me is kind of the guiding light for 2026. Maybe a bit more peace of mind that way.
And then the last thing I'll throw at you is even with all the stuff going on in the canola market, we're growing more of it this year in Canada. There's no doubt in my mind that we're going to plant as, as much as we can and we're going to carry over.
Maybe not a record anymore with China potentially stepping in here, maybe a bit less than that.
But when you start penciling out all the, all the crops, soybeans are actually decent for us from a margin perspective and canola is quite, quite strong for a lot of farms. So um, so we're gonna grow more of it.
[01:02:41] Speaker B: But anyway, uh, yeah, I think in the U. S we will.
Even, even though we had a, a really negative report last week that's I think's going to kind of give us a corn hangover for a while.
[01:02:56] Speaker A: Yep.
[01:02:57] Speaker B: I would almost bet that we plant as much corn in this coming year. Um, just kind of depends on where uncertainty with being demand falls out, you know. And yeah, or it's really important for rural America that we see very strong BioFuel mandates for 26.
So also, and honestly, it's really not even maybe the mandate part of it. It's more that when they make the decision on the, the potential supplemental volumes that would account for waived amounts of waived volumes, those SREs from 23 and 24, that's a lot of volume. And so it's really important that we see the administration say, okay, you know what, we don't want to just let those go away. We're going to make sure that we incorporate those volumes into the to be determined RVO for 26.
[01:03:58] Speaker A: All right, Susan, I guess we'll leave it right there for, for this week. Thanks so much for joining me on, on the podcast and yeah, I'm gonna, I'll stay tuned in each and every week with your information because I can't be without it here the way it looks for 26.
But hope to hope to get you on as fast as things change here once again. So appreciate it.
[01:04:21] Speaker B: Okay, well, thank you for having me.
[01:04:24] Speaker A: You bet. Take care.
And that is why I'm a premium subscriber over at Noble. Oh, man. My, my little brain just, it cannot take it all when it comes to policy and, and all the biofuel stuff. So thank you, Susan, once again for getting us up to speed. And I have a feeling that we'll be chatting very, very soon again. Check out her work, folks. She does great stuff.
All right.
I wanted, this was a really interesting mailbag question and I got, I got a message from Ty and Ty is a second year business student at Western University in London, Ontario.
You never know where you put something out. You don't know where it's all going. Right. So it's cool to get an, an email from, you know, someone in, in university that has an interest in, in grain marketing. So Ty's family, four generations now, farming in the mighty Peace region and, and has a strong interest in grain marketing and the grain marketing sector. Now Ty's asking if I have advice on how I would continue how to continue expanding knowledge and experience in grain marketing courses to pursue resources to follow or steps to take to better position myself for future opportunities.
Now, Ty, this is a great email and I appreciate it. I'm going to write back to you as well. But I wanted to talk about it on the show because I come at this probably, I don't know, maybe a little different than some other folk out there. And I, I don't want to say that one way is right and, and one way is wrong. That is not the case.
But I've worked with many great advisors in my career and many great analysts.
And in my own experience at school, like I had, I was, I was socially, socially I had a great experience, but academically, not my strong, not my strongest years. Right. And so I like, I think for you in school, Ty, like I. Anything that, that deals with, you know, trade flow and if you can get any, anything on policy, like I, yeah, you're going to do your Economics 101 and stuff like that. But I, I would say more of like a worldly view of what people, you know, what's going on with people, what's going on with trans on the food side and kind of focusing on that. And I would also say to spend some time in business courses on, you know, setting up if you have that entrepreneurial spirit. Setting up, you know, take some marketing course like how to market yourself.
Take like public speaking. Like that was one of my, I think I dreaded. No, I did dread public speaking in university.
We had to pick a category out of a hat and, and just talk for I don't know how many minutes it was. Take public speaking stuff, entrepreneurial type stuff. I took like egg. All the egg business type courses you can take. I took some great egg business courses.
It was kind of a newer thing at university when I was there, but we were having some fun setting up our own businesses and things like that.
But what I want to say today is I strongly believe that you should take like the flip side.
I think that you can go and if you have the, the, the eagerness, there's great books out there. I'll send you some book recommendations. But there's some great books out there. There's a lot to learn like merchandising wise from, from some of the great books out there.
But I would take it on the flip side where I would go and go into maybe it's the mighty Peace region, but go there and, and work with the farmers as like a grain buyer.
I'd say the interesting thing about being a grain buyer is that at least in my experience, you, you get to talk to hundreds of farms and like, remember folks, for the most part, not every single day, but every single day grain is sold right in this, like across these prairies. So you get to talk to growers and learn about why they're selling or not selling and what their cues are.
And you get to live the emotional side with them.
You get to see all sorts of different operations, how they, how they navigate these decisions.
Because at the end of the day, as a grain Buyer. Yeah, they might be putting it through on the computer, but not that often they're phoning that grain buyer. And the, the other thing about being a grain buyer is that you get the relationship with the grain graders, the elevator manager, you get to see the margin pipeline, build relationships with merchandisers. I didn't do a great job of that. I don't have a lot of merchant friends. I have a couple merchant friends. I wish I had more merchant friends. If you're listening to the show, I like making friends. I want more merchant friends. But figure it out from the, from like boots on the ground, going up that way.
I once, I once went against an advisor, and this guy worked for a company that had many advisors, right?
And he went and told these farms that you should never hire a grain marketing advisor if they haven't been an accountant first.
And I was like, what? I'm like, the first thing I says, this dude works with like 50 other advisors, and I bet you there's not a second accountant in that group. He just turned, put down his entire organization.
Now, don't get me wrong, I think accountants, there's a lot of, of great stuff that can come from accountants. Financial ratio stuff. And, you know, the, the discipline on the sales, looking at numbers and, and the discipline.
Um, but I've also been part of conversations where.
With accountants in the room. I've been in those meetings where they looked at the numbers and were like, sell.
And the farm's like, whoa, okay. And they're like, it makes sense. Sell. There's a lot more to it than just that. Yeah, it makes sense. Sell. But what else is going on in the world? What else is going on with this commodity? What is. Does the window look like? Whoa. What is the. The market look like? The carry look like?
What's the strategy? Okay, that's okay, let's lock that in. But what else, what other strategy should we consider?
Anyways, nothing against accountants, but.
Yeah. So, Ty, great email. I'm going to respond to you, but I just say my best piece of advice and my favorite advisors that I've hired were, were grain buyers first and then moved into other parts. You don't have to be a green buyer forever. Do it for a year or two.
I met a great young advisor. He's got his own shop now, doing his own thing, crushing it out there, doing a heck of a job for his clients.
And he did a short stint contract with the old Bungie, right? And then moved to a different company, a larger company, did some grain buying there, took on an assistant role. Assistant green marketing advisor role. Finally got his own book and then it's now gone completely on his own, like just killing it out there. So I don't. That's the path that I would take. You can read everything. You can sign up for some other courses.
Do. Just enjoy university, man. Just do it. All right?
But then get in the country and get going from there. That again, I. I'm sure there's other ways to do it, but that would be. That would be my advice.
All right. Keep them coming, folks. Ryan at with the Futures podcast ca. I got a couple others, but I'm gonna park them for. For now. It's been a. It's been a bit of a hot week across the prairies here, so you guys know what I'm talking about. Uh, anyways, uh, eating your veggies, uh, for this week, uh, again, it's January. It's cold out.
Figure out your defensive strategy. The market does something unexpected, the market rallies.
Something happens. Short term, boom, it rallies. What are you going to do about it? You can't figure it out in the moment. You can't.
You can't be like, oh, my goodness, the market's rallied $2 a bushel. What am I going to do now? How is. I'm going to live forever? This market's never going down. No, but it's too late. If you're trying to figure it out when it happens, it's too late. So sit down, figure out your. If you have a brokerage account, what is your strategy if you're going to go through the line company, Figure it out now. What is your play when the market moves higher? What is your play? Right.
Number two, check in on a neighbor.
Just the mental health part of. Has been big for me here the last couple of weeks. And just check in on a neighbor, a friend, a relative.
Just the, hey, go for a coffee, go for a visit, whatever it is.
We're getting through, like, the darkest weeks of the winter in the year. But I don't know about you guys, but my anxiety, I'd say it's as high as when Russia invaded Ukraine for the first time. Like, you know, there's just crap coming at you all the time. I. I had to catch a headline today of what would happen if the US Invaded Canada.
You know, like, stuff like that. There's lots going on in the world.
Hey, you might be cool as a cucumber, but your neighbor, friend, relative, who knows what's going on there? So check in on them. And again, mentally, I think this past Monday was like Blue Monday or something like it's one of the traditionally one of the darkest times mentally in our, in our year. So just check in on them. All right, number three, I'm not being paid to say this, but I do have these folks coming up in future episodes here right away. But private insurance, just make contact.
You just check in Global Agris Solutions AGI 3.
Just get on their radar just to see. I don't know how it's going to work for your farm in 2026 and then be in corporate, incorporated or if there's a fit or not. I have no clue yet.
But what I do know is if it is a fit and a lot of people end up wanting to buy it, this first in that usually has a good chance at it. All right, I'll talk about more of that in a second. Canola targets. We're going over. Guys. We got a fourth and a fifth. Canola targets.
Hey, you got a market climbing here. Get them in. You saw on the 16th the market spiked and pulled back. Hit some targets there, some new highs.
Get those targets in at profitable levels. And last one, I just, my buddy did a phenomenal wheat basis contract the other day. One that had me, had me go, oh wow.
It was on cps. But anyways, dandy of a basis contract and I just got my gears turned like, man, maybe, maybe there's something there on wheat right now. I, I like the setup in Kansas City Wheat. I am, I'm a little bullish. I'm a little bullish. Kansas City Wheat. I'm positioning myself and my clients to be a little bullish here. KC wheat. It's a little early. I may fall flat again on my face, but I'm feeling a little optimistic here on, on KC Wheat. And I like that chart. I don't mind it. All right, okay. That's it for eating your veggies. Grain prices this week. Maple peas, $14 a bushel for old crop maple peas.
Wow. There we go. Little action. Yellow peas, 8:35 as a high. It's again starting to move a bit.
Green peas, 11 bucks. Red lentils, 24 cents a pound for old, old crop. Faba beans are hot.
I don't have a price. I just see a lot of demand out there for certain varieties of fabist new crop. Malt barley at 580 a bushel in, in central Alberta. And I did get Suzanne with Market Master. I asked her to dig into some new crop pricing for me today if she had time.
And we've Got flax, no bid. Red lentils 20 cents delivered. New crop. Reds. I not going to do that.
Greens 9 bucks. New crop. Green peas at 9, yellow peas at 7, 7. 10 oats, 315 large green lentils, 24 cents with act of God. Not all of that had act of God, but most of it. Most of it did.
So starting to heat up a little bit here for, for a new crop. All right, folks, coming up on the show next week, Lee supports with a guy three is joining me and Brett Waltz with BAM wx. Now, we are recording early.
I'm gonna have those segments recorded before you even listen to this episode.
So we may, we're gonna, I think we're gonna sneak that guy out a little early. I would think next week. And then after that. I've got a couple gentlemen from Global Ag Risk Solutions joining me. Guys, when I, I don't like insurance. All right. I don't.
But what I want to figure out is, is there a play on insurance to help me execute my crop marketing plan?
I'm not going to come at this, looking at it saying, all right, what, what's my margin protection or what's my, my protection against my cost? Like I'm, I want to know what can I do do so that when the markets show opportunity, I can execute. That's what I want to figure out with these folks. That's what we're going to talk about. All right, so we've got.
Yeah. So those are kind of the next two episodes. You'll see me Tuesday live, cup of coffee with Ryan from with the Futures. But in the meantime, be safe. Have a great weekend. And I'm out of here. Take care.
