Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: All right, so questions coming in. The big one is the canola market. You know, what, what do I do in this canola market? How sold should I be? And if the basis levels are improving slightly while futures are climbing or rallying, you know, is that indicative of a larger rally yet? That's been a big one. Okay. And I'm getting messages from goers I'm up to, recommendations are up to my comfort level. Maybe I feel like I've sold a little too much now, like, where do you think this is going? And, you know, the short answer. We'll bring in our guest here in a moment. But the short answer is I think you're doing, I think you're doing fantastic rewarding this, this rally. I know it's up today. Canola up four bucks a ton. But I would be very much in that sell type mode. You've heard me say that on the show. Also another one coming in is the yellow P market has popped here. You know, we have the China removing the tariff as of March 1. And now we are staring at Kindersley. Saskatchewan, 775 new crop, yellow pea bid. All right, if you want to go up to northern Alberta, to the Peace Region, $8 yellow peas. There's an eight and a quarter out there as well. Maybe that's central Alberta, but should we be pricing some of this? And I'd say, well, geez, like, the price has climbed 15% since that announcement. Yeah, you know, of course, you should be doing a little bit of something here now. Canola futures this morning up 440 a ton. March trading at 651.40. Spring wheat down a penny and a quarter.
Kansas wheat down a penny as well. After a big down day yesterday. We've got corn down a penny, trading at about 4, what, 27, I think I wrote down. Soybeans up 4 cents at 10.66. And bean oil has gained about 30 basis points here this morning to, to kick off the day.
Now, from a headlines perspective, you know, you guys are getting your news out there, but there's just a few that caught my attention here as we, you know, we're still at the beginning part of the week. I think for me, the top one here is, you know, how, and don't get me wrong, the, the, the ice and the storm system in the US Is absolutely terrible. The people without power, the people that can't leave their homes, absolutely terrible. But from a crop marketing perspective, that's, that's all I'm trying to spin on it here is that A moisture event, a weather event goes from, okay, this is going to damage the crop, this is going to be bad to oh yeah, it was dry and oh yeah, rain and snow, actually it was a good thing. Now there is some crop damage. Sounds like it's very, very minimal. There was a couple of states, corners of a few states that were highlighted with some crop damage. But yeah, overall, you know, the market responding here yesterday, Kansas City wheat, especially with that large decline. Now we'll see. The chart was looking good before that. We'll see what kind of action we get today and tomorrow. A second one for me on the, on the agenda here is just, you know, the Brazilian soybean crop. And I do see we did get a question on barley prices. So conveniently we have barley on today's agenda a little bit later on. So that's awesome. But Agrile raised Brazil soybean production to 181 million metric tons versus the USDA at 178. And I believe that I read this morning harvest is around 5% complete. So, you know, a big crop getting bigger. And Argentina, there's been some, you know, I have a note below here, Argentina had been trending, had been drier the last number of weeks here, but now it seems to be trending a little bit wetter. All I'm going to say on the South American stuff, guys, is the, the harvest window is, has opened. You know, this certainly looks like there's a dandy of a crop coming. All right, the last one for headlines here this morning, 10 cargoes of Canadian Canola. Of course, this is a show based out of the Canadian prairies, But Canadian canola, 10 cargoes bought by China according to a Reuters report.
All right, so now the Canadian canola, the 10 cargoes, the like, it's great, it's good to see. 650,000 tons, give or take, is great. But we, you know, we, we need that to continue. We need a little bit more of that, right? So we need to keep the momentum going and, and to see two and a half, three million tons of purchasing. It's a great start. Let's keep it going. That was a Reuters report on those 10 cargoes. Just something that we'll keep an eye on and continue to monitor. All right, now, there we go, buddy. Good morning. How's things in Saskatoon?
[00:04:38] Speaker B: Things are going great here. I wasn't sure what was happening with the login, but things are good in Saskatoon here.
[00:04:44] Speaker A: So so far I've talked about questions coming in, so lots of questions about canola. Over the last couple days. So I want to talk about that in a sec. And then I was talking about yellow peas popping up here and some pricing opportunities and, and then the futures moves, you know, this morning, Canola's up about four bucks when I last checked. Wheat market cereals are a little bit lower. But I just wanted to bring you in this week, see what's on your mind.
And certainly we can talk Canola here as well, so. Yeah. What's on your mind in sunny Saskatoon for Tuesday, January 27th?
[00:05:18] Speaker B: Yeah, well, this Canola is obviously, it's always interesting to me and you know, we're struggling with that 650 level and that previous high. I actually entered into a, a small short position here on Corolla yesterday, which is not working out too favorably as of this morning.
But yeah, I just, you know, we got that resistance at 650, those round numbers, Ryan, that are, continue since last fall. But on the cash side, I see those, you talked about those movements in the basis, those improvements in the basis and I think there's room on the cash side for improvement in Canola.
[00:05:52] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, I, I had a grower put in a target yesterday, 20 cents out of the market, above the market and you know, it triggered within seconds.
So, yeah, definitely a bit of basis room there. Now, to me, Trent, in this like where the, where we're sitting on the chart, like, I, I need, you know, I'm a fundamentals type guy, you're the technical guy, but I need it to show me something. Maybe I'm being impatient, but I want it to show me a little something more here. Like right where we're at now to me is like a key point of like a decision time. And I, maybe not on the technical side, but I'm just looking at the chart saying you got to show me something pretty quick here.
Am I out of line with that or what's your thought?
[00:06:42] Speaker B: Well, no, I, you know, I, I've been talking recently about a pullback, the last week, I guess, about a pullback and talk about that on my Ask me anything webinar. Last week.
Of course, it's not happening yet as of this, this morning or yesterday, but looking at the nearby futures, I just don't see a whole lot of upside to this. I think you're touching on rewarding these rallies and I think that's a, I think that's a great strategy. And then, yeah, you know, I, it needs to do something quick, but I, I think it's going to go lower before it goes higher in My own opinion, but obviously I'm speaking with my.
[00:07:20] Speaker A: Yeah. With the trade on now. Exactly. Talking to your book. Yeah, I, you know, I would say from our farm's perspective, we, we have sold some stuff here lately and I also do have a small short on. So I might be talking my book here as well a little bit. But I want to turn our attention actually one last thing. On Canola, I, I was, I took the weekly, weekly nearby chart two years and I just. And if you're at home and you want to do this, you know, draw a line at like 650 and draw a line at 670 and you can see like the outlier being last spring's rally. But you can kind of see the last two years that it's been a little bit of a sweet spot there. And if you can get. We've been in that range a few times and it, it has been, you know, in the past a good pricing window.
So I don't know, just things to, to consider there when, when you're at home and, and looking up charts now. Trent, we are running tight on time here. We've got about two minutes before we wrap up. What about this pullback in wheat? We were talking about wheat being a little bit friendly now. The rain ice event turned from scary to moisture is good for a winter wheat crop in the US Anything alarming on a Kansas City wheat chart or a Minneapolis wheat chart?
[00:08:42] Speaker B: I'm looking at Minneapolis, so I'm looking at Miami I guess is what it, what it is. But yeah, I, you know, it's at a, at a long term trend line. I think that trend line goes back three, four years now. I mean it's, I've been waiting for a rally in wheat in the new year and halfway through the month it hasn't happened yet so, or three quarters of the way through it hasn't happened yet. So yep, we're running out of time. But I haven't given up yet on, on wheat. I think there's potential to get above that trend line anyways.
[00:09:12] Speaker A: Yeah, I'm curious to see how it responds the next couple days, especially that Kansas City chart because it, you know, it's been showing some, some life and some momentum and you know, as I was.
And this isn't one of my insights here to wrap up the show, but as I was scanning, many are hard red spring wheat bids across the prairies yesterday. It's amazing how when that little demand window disappears like when those cars don't need to be filled or there's Enough to fill those cars. And then futures just soften. Just that 10, 20 cents. It's amazing how depressing the wheat prices look across the prairies. It's just a. Just a moment of like, oh, nobody really has their hand up to buy this week. It's a little quiet and then a little softening and it's like when did we go back down to 725? Wasn't it just 770? Like what happened here? But that's what happens in this environment right now.
All right, Trent, anything else? We're down to our last minute and a half or so. Anything else?
[00:10:19] Speaker B: I'm with you on that Kansas City chart. I think it shows potential for a rally there. Haven't given up on Minneapolis or hard red spring wheat.
I think there's potential. Those canola I think is relatively limited. And the special crops, a bit of a wild card. You're saying yellow peas are rallying. So a bit. So that's a good sign. So But I saw crop insurance or egg and food Canada came out with some numbers here. I guess it was for new crop for next year. And they're lower values than today, I think. So Yep. You got to take that into consideration too when marketing.
[00:10:52] Speaker A: So yeah. So just a couple things here as we wrap up. I want to highlight yellow peas that nearby strength again parts of Alberta. 850 a bushel here for old crop stuff like if cash is needed, that's just the spot where I would get something done. And new crop. If you have a path to profitability at 775 in Kindersley, Saskatchewan, that's where I would go. And questions just coming in here. Have you changed your crop ratings? Tune in to Friday's what the futures. Because I was going to do crop rankings today but we're going to save that for Friday's longer form episode. Barley market. We had a question come in. So I was doing in a.
I was checking my local elevator bids versus Feedlot Alley and the local elevator by far, you know, 20, 30 cents better than bringing it to Feedlot Alley in the month of February or the month of March. I want you also to think about taking advantage of that and those new crop offers again a path to profitability.
Go for it. We already talked about wheat so we're not going to cover that off anymore.
Trent, thanks for joining me on the first ever cup of coffee Tuesday morning. Thanks to the Lunchbox Crew. I gotta get that. But anyways, Lunchbox Crew sponsoring this week's episode. Someone asked me the other day. Do you have an open spot in the Lunchbox crew for. For our farm? And I said, actually, yes, we do. We have two spots open in the Lunchbox crew. All right, folks, that's it for a cup of coffee with Ryan from what the Futures. Thanks so much for joining us this week. Come hang out on Friday for the what the Futures episode, and we'll be back here next Tuesday with a new guest analyst.
That's it. I'm out of here. Take care.
