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[00:00:00] Speaker A: SAM Alrighty, folks, Happy Wednesday. Here we are, September 24th. Thought I'd go live from the UPL studio.
It's been a minute since, since we did something live, so I thought I'd check in here. A couple things going on markets wise and getting a pile of questions in regards to the conference and the agenda, but also just kind of the times, when do you, when would we get there? When should we get there? What time do things kind of start? So I thought I could cover that off because I have been deep, deep, deep in conference mode, conference mode this week. All right, this live episode brought to you by the Lunchbox Crew. You can check that out at Ryan Denis Ca if you want to join a group of farmers across the prairies that I tend to be a bit more hands on from when it comes to crop marketing strategies and information, you can check that out. Send me a note, Ryan deniefarming.com and I can get you the details there as well. So it's crop marketing a little bit more detailed for, for those interested.
All right, markets wise today, couple things we've got lentil values. The lentil growers out there, you know, you are seeing a little bit of a, just a little pop in prices, up a penny and a half or so for reds, small greens, large greens, starting to come off of the, the harvest low. And that to me is just a representation of you, the farmer, locking up your bins.
[00:02:17] Speaker B: All right?
[00:02:17] Speaker A: That's what I was mentioning to the Lunchbox Crew today.
I think it's just, hey, here's a little bit of demand. Farmers have locked up their bins, little gain in price.
[00:02:27] Speaker B: All right?
[00:02:28] Speaker A: Any commodity that we look at here over the next few months, the rallies are going to be, in my opinion, a little muted and a little bit disappointing.
[00:02:40] Speaker B: All right?
[00:02:40] Speaker A: They're not going to be the large gains.
Anything can happen during the growing season, anything can happen in the spring.
But until then, the my expectation is large crop, large western Canadian crop. Yes, we'll see gains, but they're not going to blow your socks off.
[00:02:58] Speaker B: All right?
[00:02:58] Speaker A: They're not going to blow your socks off and hopefully they cover the cost of carry.
[00:03:03] Speaker B: All right.
[00:03:05] Speaker A: The other thing, you know, some out there talking about a canola, you know, the, the start of maybe a bit of a canola rally or at least some support in the canola market. You know, as of, you know, recording here, the market's up about a buck a ton today, November trading at 618.
I, I look back, I look back at some historics here Just the last decade. And yes, we do find a low in the Canola market in the month of September.
Out of 10 years I took out 21 and 22 as they just went higher or 20, 20, 2021, they went higher harvest on.
[00:03:47] Speaker B: Right.
[00:03:48] Speaker A: So I didn't consider those ones. But we do make a low here in September and then you get a little rally, you get a little pop up in these markets often mid October to mid November in there you get a little bit of a rally.
And then some years, and this is a bit of my expectation right now, some years you end up hitting a little bit of a market peak post harvest in the early winter and then you can work yourself lower. You actually go past the harvest lows and go find a new low and that can go all the way to late winter. Now you know I've got John DePape joins me on the show this week. We recorded yesterday. So that'll be out in Friday's episode of the what the Futures podcast.
And we just talk about, you know, is this year he did some research. Is this year going to be similar to 2013, 2014?
Well, the short answer is no, but you can see why when we record or when we send that out on Friday morning. But great interview with John yesterday. Had some fun, talked about some old Canadian wheat board stuff as well and, and covered that. Now I still expect that the recovery is going to be on a lot of these crops is going to be muted and that you are going to want to really brush up on your crop marketing strategies post harvest here if you are wrapping up harvest.
You know, I've said it a few times but just getting the pencil out again, figuring out, you know what, where you're at from a break even perspective and then making that crop marketing plan moving forward. All right, don't look back, don't look in the reverse, look forward and make your plan going ahead. I did an exercise on the weekend here. We got into the Canola on Sunday. So I did an exercise, started to get a good idea.
You know, we've crossed 1400 acres of canola now since Sunday getting an idea on where yields coming in. And I thought, hey, I know what the rest of my crops, I know what they've done from a production side. I know from a budget perspective where I'm at price wise.
Most of those crops that we've grown, malt barley is all sold green peas, majority sold, right wheat, the price now is not going to move our average by a whole bunch. A lot of that contracted as well, and I thought, well, what's my break even now if I take my dollars again? I wanted to make 600 bucks an acre this year. That made life easy for us. 600 bucks an acre. You know, where do I sit against that number and where do I need to sell my canola to hit that goal?
And of course, I've got some canola sold and I've got some hedges in place and I've got some put options.
And so where am I at?
And, you know, it was, it was lucky for us, you know, and not to brag here, but we're fortunate that we were that we're able to sell the rest of our canola in the mid 12s and hit our goal.
And we're even a little more fortunate that we have a buffer now. That's if we average 12 and a half on our canola, roughly, you know, we'd hit our goal. Well, we have a buffer because we have a bunch of this stuff soldiers or hedged, you know, a lot higher than where we're at today. So we even have that buffer now. And the cool thing is that we have a path to, to make an extra 5% over our. Our number, maybe even a little better than that, but 5%. And so not only does life get easy, but we also have flexibility to do some stuff, make some bigger decisions if we want to.
It has not been like that. We have not been thinking like that most of the year, but here we are with some real yield and making that path honestly. It's made crop marketing decisions a whole bunch easier in the sense of you sell at this number or higher and you've hit your goal.
And if you can hit your goal, what's wrong with that? Why would you lose sleep over these markets? Why would you stress over these markets if you can hit the goal that you put together a year ago roughly and hit that goal.
So check mark. That's a job well done.
[00:08:08] Speaker B: Right?
[00:08:08] Speaker A: Thank you, Mother Nature. Thank you for these big yields. And apparently, according to social media, thank you for the smoke.
I don't know. I didn't have a smoky year where I live in Alberta. And the yields are the biggest we've seen in this area. But anyways, I'll digress on that one for now.
All right, again, John DePape, strongly encourage you to check that out for Friday here. Now, just a couple quick things. I'll wrap up conference, getting a lot of emails, a lot of questions coming in about the conference, our application deadline. So everybody applies just, we want farmers in the room. So everybody applies. It's a quick process. Ryan denied CA to fill out the application. It's nothing about. What do you know? What do you not know? It's just about, um.
It's just about making sure farmers are in the room. All right, and so that deadline is going to be October 13th, which I think is Thanksgiving.
That is the deadline to apply to the conference. Once you apply, you'll get an email saying, here you go.
Welcome to the conference. Here's the link to buy tickets.
There's no deadline on that until we sell out. That is your deadline. But the application deadline is October 13th. Okay, why is that? Well, we are getting to the point here where it's. It's busier in the background, ticket sales are happening regularly.
[00:09:34] Speaker B: And.
[00:09:36] Speaker A: Yeah, we're getting there, folks. We're not sold out, but we are getting there. We just. We're reviewing numbers this morning to try to figure out our space to make sure. Have we accounted for every seat?
Which speakers are spending the whole week with us? Which sponsors are spending the whole week with us? Really diving down because it's going to be tight. It's going to be a full room. Okay, So I got asked the other day, well, Ryan, what time should we be in? Moustache, Saskatchewan.
Tuesday, December 9th. That's when we kick off the conference. Registration is going to be open all afternoon. You pull up to the Temple Garden Hotel, and we are going to be set up with our registration table.
And it's a, It's a fun registration table because you're not just, you know, getting into the conference. You're picking your swag.
It feels like you're a little bit out of concert.
You'll be picking your swag, those special items you want to take home with you and kind of getting set up. And the, the. The spa. The pool is available for you as well.
[00:10:35] Speaker B: Right?
[00:10:36] Speaker A: So you can show up nice and early, get checked in and go hit up the pool. We're going to do the welcome. Reception is going to start at 5pm at the Crush can.
And this is not just the Crush can. We have two spots actually in the same building.
But you can go. We have a speakeasy. You can go have a cocktail in. We're going to have dinner there that night, and I'm going to get up on stage in the Crush can and do my.
Do my. Do my welcome.
It's going to be a blast of an atmosphere. We've got all the games rented out in that space. If you want to shoot hoops, do Buck Hunter. We're going to have all that. There's TVs everywhere. We're going to have some fun with that as well. And that's the welcome reception. So if you're like, when do I have to be there? Tuesday, 5pm it, it gets going with the welcome reception. The next day, Wednesday, we are conferencing all day. Breakfast is gonna start at 7:30. It's gonna run for an hour, but we will start with some pre, almost some pre conference Sessions shortly after 8am Just a couple things we wanna get going and then I'll welcome everybody at 9am for that day and we'll go all the way to five o'. Clock.
All right, that's Wednesday. Conferencing all day.
Wednesday evening.
We I'm still, still waiting for our sponsor to sign their part of the deal here. So I'm not going to say that who's sponsoring this yet. But we have a very fun evening plan with tunnel tours. We've got a fun dinner that night as well. And we have a fun evening planned for everybody. Silent auction will be going, all that good stuff. And so that's Wednesday evening. Then Thursday again, we're conferencing breakfast at 7 again, conferencing, you know, 9:00am to you know, 4:00pm that night, that, that afternoon. So the Thursday. All right, so those that were asking, that's where we're at from a conference perspective on the rough agenda, the speakers, the titles, all that's coming out in the next couple of weeks, early October. We're just finalizing that behind the scenes right now. All right folks, for the what the Futures podcast, my name is Ryan. Thank you for tuning into the live show and check out my episode Friday with John depap.