Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Have market prices found a bottom across the Canadian prairies? Are we here, folks? Is the bottom here? Is the harvest low set for some crops? I think the answer is yes. Let's get into it here. Episode 93 of the what the Futures podcast coming up.
Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast, your quick guide to better farming decisions.
All right, folks, welcome into episode 93 of the what the Futures podcast. Of course, my name is Ryan Denis. I'm recording here in the UPL studio, which I do each and every week. I'm gonna have to get those folks on the show here in short order. I want to talk Grower Rewards, the Grower Rewards program, one of the most lucrative programs for prairie farmers. I want to talk about that. And so I got to get Tony to join me on the show here one of these days. We'll see if we can line that up next month. All right, folks, it's a solo episode. I want to talk crop marketing. I'm recording a little earlier this week a family event here later on in the week that we, that we're heading off to, so. But wanted to get something down because some stuff is happening here in our markets. And can I say that I'm. I'm starting to feel a little better, starting to feel slightly better when it comes to crop marketing. You know, maybe it'll be short lived, but time will tell. I just want to say I appreciate all of you that have gone on and subscribed to on the YouTube channel. We've really popped up there the last couple weeks. So, you know, thank you for that. Go hit the like button, go leave a comment, a review. Certainly appreciate it. And don't be a stranger if you have questions for me as well. I did get some questions on YouTube that I thought I would answer in this week's episode because the voicemails, they were a little quiet. All right, all you have to do for the voicemail, go to what the futurespodcast Ca. Click send. Voicemail comes right to me and you just let me know your percent harvested. All right, that's it. Your percent harvested is all I need. It's for fun. You can win a John Deere multi tool. All right, we were giving that away. A couple of John Deere yeti mugs as well.
And if you get lucky here, maybe what the futures will provide some liquid courage to go to go with that. So send in those voicemails. Don't be a stranger. All right, YouTube.
Now this, this farm is out of.
Well, they said North Battleford.
[00:02:31] Speaker B: All right.
[00:02:32] Speaker A: I'm going to be driving through the Battlefords tomorrow and if you're looking for, you know, when you're on the road and you're looking for a great spot to grab a bite, I believe it's called country cuisine. Yeah, country cuisine. Four and a half stars on Google review, which is total baloney. It's a five star stop.
Do you remember what were they called back in the day? Country kitchen maybe. I think it was country kitchen when I was a kid. But anyways, this gives me some similar vibes to that. It's, it's our go to spot. So of course we got a couple small kids we hammer down from the Edmonton area. We hammer down to get to Battleford. No matter what is going on, we are stopping at country cuisine for breakfast. Late breakfast, brunch, lunch. That is the spot. All right, so just a shout out to country cuisine. Now back to the questions here. So farm out of Battleford said spring wheat is a dead horse right now. Is there any glimmer of hope to see a better price down the road? Prices in the Battleford area are 685 to $7 for number 113 5. That's question one. They are a dead horse right now. 100% they are a dead horse. But there's two things here. The one thing I would, I would have you consider and I'm not saying that this is going to be all roses on this strategy, but if you have cash flow figured out, could you go and take a peek at values later on into the, into the spring or into the summer? Like for example, I got offered here in the, let's call it central Alberta. We got offered north of $8 a bushel for the summer of 2026 delivery. All right, number 113 5. The price to deliver now was I think 7:15.
You know, if you take a look at, you know, interest rates and you take a look at that carry, like to me doing the math, there was, you know, probably a 25, 30 cent gain even after interest costs to, to consider that. So I, you know, I just. Again, is weed a dead horse is the question. The short answer to that is yes. But, you know, is that something you can look at maybe from a strategy perspective? The other thing too, you know, is it a dead horse here on September 16th? Sure.
But we are, we are going to find our bottom here. What's our recovery look like? You know, we'll see, but we are going to find our bottom. I've said it for the last number of weeks. You need to do multiple things here, multiple decisions to, to just chip away at getting a better price.
And perfect example is grabbing the early movement opportunities. You know, I, for our farm, it was $7 over here is, you know, 7:50. Maybe for you it was, you know, 675 or something like that, below cost of production, you know, losing money. But there is, there's a big wheat crop out here. There's a bunch of bushels out here. And so I, you know, I, I'm already seeing, you know, I'm getting line companies kicking the can down the road now to like January, saying, hey, you know, we're, we, we're pretty full here for the fall and early winter. What do you think about January like that? That's not a good feeling, folks. Anyways, going back to grabbing that early movement, you know, is wheat a dead horse? It is at this time. But maybe, just maybe you could look at grabbing a better price than what's posted. Grabbing this early movement opportunity and then replacing that. You know, maybe you'll look at something on corn. Maybe you look at the corn market and say, you know what? Corn's a cereal. There's, I see a strategy here to pick up 20 cents. You know, maybe there's something there. Maybe there you look at the Chicago wheat market or Kansas or, and you say, hey, you know what? This thing bottomed out at five bucks. You know, I bottomed out at five. It's bounced to 520. Now is there something else to this in the next few weeks, right? And go pick up something there.
Wheat is a dead horse for many reasons. And then what's added to it lately here, in my opinion is that the, the, the Russian cropped and gets smaller. Like, it's not scary production wise, but it didn't get smaller. And western Canada, we, we took off a pile of bushels, guys. We did all right. And I'm getting, every day now, I get the farms texting, saying, hey, Ryan, I'm just wrapping up harvest. I'm on my last day, you know, like, we're here. And those are northern Alberta. I'm getting a pile of those out of northern Alberta. Those messages and a pile of them from southern Alberta and also southwest Saskatchewan. Those are where they're, they're coming in from. But harvest is wrapping up. We got bushels, folks. Even our farm this year, we were, we were waving the white flag mid June. It's like, man, if we don't get a rain here, you know, we, we're getting, you know, crop insurance payouts. To now, kind of embarrassed to say this out loud but we still have a thousand acres a week to go. Record yield for our farm by we'll see what percentage, but pretty significant margin. Again, I'm not saying that for, for everybody, but there's a large area here that has produced a big cereal crop. It doesn't matter if it's wheat, barley, oats, the bushels are there and that's going to keep a lid on prices. What, what could be a little bit, I don't think exciting is the right word, but what could provide a spark here? You see it on social media lately. You see the, while Ukraine is attacking Russian oil because Russian oil exports are financing the war. You know, watch out Odessa, watch out export terminals here for wheat, you know, how well protected are they? And you know, folks referencing that in regards to a wheat rally, you know, it feels like we've bottomed out though in the wheat market. But the recovery is not going to be, it's not going to be, not going to be that exciting for the next number of months. I'm again, like I said, I'm already getting the hey, you know, here's a price for January and it's the price that I sold at and I've moved that wheat off combine already. It's the same price except it's gone. And they're offering me that for January, which last I checked kind of sucks for hauling grain in January. All right, the other thing here, this is a story, I'm not going to name names on this one because this is like second hand information. But the scenario, this is the scenario that happened last week. All right, elevator was out with a 675 wheat special. Farmer thought about it, didn't take it, decided, didn't want to do it, didn't take it, had a change of heart, thought about it for another day or two. So you know what? I am going to take that 675, I am going to sell at that. Not only that, I've talked to a neighbor or two and we're going to put together some significant bushels, enough bushels essentially to fill an entire train very close. And we're going to. Their posted price was 630something. We're going to flex our volume and we're going to extract that price again. And do you know what the answer was from the line company? The answer was no. Thank you. All right, we're not 675 anymore. The price is now 6:30 something. Yes, you've put together a significant amount of bushels to buy us an entire train, but no, thank you. It's different this year, folks. It's different. I was telling this to the lunchbox crew the other day. Like, you know, if you know that your buyer really likes Boston cream donuts, bring them a donut or something.
This. This fall, like, you're gonna have to.
You're gonna have to put on your sales hat as a farmer and. And go and try to extract things that. That work opportunities that work for your farm, prices that work for your farm. You know, I. I hate to say it, folks, but you know what? When I was a grain buyer, like, the. Like, I got a few different gifts as a grain buyer, and it was. We weren't, you know, we weren't allowed to accept anything. Nothing of. Of significant value. I've got actually a few funny stories involving cash as a consultant. But anyways, I think I got, like, a 66 of vodka. The one year I was, you know, in my early 20s, I didn't drink vodka. Didn't drink vodka at all. But farmer brought that. I got a couple gift cards for meals and things like that. Have to do some thinking. But anyways, consulting wise, though, I was working for Cargill way back in the day. A farmer wanted to hire me, and so we had a meeting in the shop, and there's just a thick envelope, and they just slid it across the table and they're like, we'd just like to work with you, though. And I was like, oh, yeah, I can't. I can't do that. But it inspired me to go out on my own a few years later. So, anyways.
All right, let's circle back here. So the next question. See how far of a tangent I went on. Good thing we got a solo episode here.
So wheat is a dead horse. It is. Oh, man. What could I tell you that's going to be positive for wheat? You never know what happens next spring. Really? That's wheat marketing for us in the winter is always brutal. You'll get a little harvest rally here. You'll get something. But again, it might just be yesterday's prices. And we're going to talk about that in, in a second as well. All right, second question was in regards to malt barley. What's your thoughts on malt barley? Prices have softened. Is there a huge malt crop out there and is the quality there generally speaking? Like, don't get me wrong, there are quality issues out there. There are, but one of the clients that I, you know, I work closely with, you know, they were told in central Alberta that there was so much good quality malt barley in central Alberta that anything outside of specs was, you know, probably not going to make it and be accepted. Which is a really big kick in the teeth because that farm now that's a dollar fifty a bushel loss. We're talking about north of 100 bucks an acre loss based on the change from malt to feed their contracts to what the current feed market is now. Maybe we'll narrow that up a little bit yet. But you know, that's a big kick. Like what I see here right now. I see the fall trains, there's some movement. I think if you have barley that is a little bit on the line here that you could go ahead and move that out. It wouldn't surprise me to see prices climb 25 cents later this winter if you're at a 575, maybe seeing a 6 bucks or something like that. But I think domestically, you know, we have to kind of remember too, like it's not a space where, you know, demand has been climbing. Like beer consumption is on the decline.
I'm not saying that it's a, it's a major storyline yet, but I'm just saying it kind of adds to it a little bit. You know, maybe you get a small increase in malt values here over the winter. That wouldn't surprise me to see that. But from a domestic side, your domestic maltsters, like you have to hurry up and get in front of them if you haven't already. Like, you have to quickly do that, submit your samples and you'll find out right away that pulse on that market. Because, you know, when the one in central Alberta says, yeah, we got lots here locally, we're not gonna, you know, we're gonna get outta anything that's borderline on our contracts or you know, like that, you know, that's not a bullish sign. Talk to the ones in Saskatchewan, talk to the ones that you deal with in, in the northern states and see what they say.
But my feeling here is that there's a pretty sizable crop, enough good quality to get us by. If we get a few additional export sales on, maybe you get a small increase. But I like moving malt early so like I don't mess around with malt. I get it sampled, I get it, I get it gone. And I again, I can't not warn you guys enough here. If you have borderline quality, some companies are great. We got offered with Cargill malt price and a backstop. If it doesn't make Malt. Here's your feed price. Peace of mind, right?
If you send it to Bungie Vitera, I'll continue to call them that for a bit. It can be four weeks, six weeks down the road where you get a phone call saying, hey, this stuff didn't make it. Like when we, this could be different now. But you, you sample your farm, you get your loads in, you send that sample away, you see how it makes it, man, I might get in trouble for this comment actually, but you see how it makes it. Okay, yours is good, step one. And then you have like a 2,500 ton bin with a whole bunch of farms in it. And so you take that sample and you send that away and like, okay, we're good. If you're not good, I don't want to get too far down the path here. But yeah, it could be painful for that bin. All right, but then you go, you move this stuff to Vancouver, it gets sampled again and that's the point where there you say, nope, this didn't make it, it's rejected right there, right at the end. And then your buyer phones in, says, hey, sorry, here's the feed price. Now the reason I have to give you a word of caution here is that more often than not, I don't know if I've ever, if I've ever had it not be this, but the price, the feed price that you get is not what you expect, it's not competitive.
And so you sit there and say, well, crap, if that's what I was going to get, I never would have contracted or hauled that in.
I never would have sold at that feed value, right? So that's where just a word of caution that that can happen. And even today we tried with, we had a couple conversations with one location, said, hey, this is what we want. We want a feedback stop. And the rep we talked to said, that's a great idea. Yeah, let's try to do that. The next day said, yeah, sorry, we got, we can't do that, we can't offer that to you rate at this time. And like in quotations, it's because it's borderline stuff and they're going to deal with a bunch of it and they're going to try to get this passed by and if it doesn't work, it just comes back down to the farmer, right?
So again, maybe I'm going to be in some hot water over that comment. We'll see. But it's happened, I've seen it happen. I've sat across from farms that have experienced that. I've. I don't think I ever had to make that call as a buyer, but I've seen them made. All right, it's happened. This is not false. This, this stuff goes down.
[00:17:05] Speaker B: All right.
[00:17:06] Speaker A: Okay.
All right, great. Questions again. If YouTube's the way you want to do it, fantastic. Let's keep them coming. Crop marketing Made Cool conference, of course sponsoring the voicemail feature for, for this month. I have two slots that have opened up here. Not opened up. I looked at the agenda and I'm trying to fit two more in. That's the better way to say it.
I'm just curious though, as a listener, you know, who would you want to hear from at a crop marketing conference? All right, send Those in Ryan deniefarming.com send to that email if you don't mind or Ryan thefuturespodcast ca they all work.
Just curious who you'd like to see present. All right, what speaker and why?
[00:17:50] Speaker B: Alrighty.
[00:17:51] Speaker A: Now we have six keynotes, we have six breakout sessions. Right now we're going to be in moose jaw from December 9th to 11th. And here are just some of the themes, all right. On some of the presentations. Introduction into contracting grain. If you're a new farm, maybe you're coming up your parents, you're getting into the fold, taking over from your parents or being more involved. Intro into how to contract grain. What's all involved? What's all the terminology? Grain elevators.
What are all these fancy contracts that are offering you?
Crop marketing through the lens of a farmer, a real farmer. Talking about real crop marketing successes and failures. Or education will say that's a powerful one. Futures and options 101.
Are you new to this, new to hedging? We've got that emotions and crop marketing. That's the next one. Hedging cattle strategies to hedge cattle. We have a topic on our speaker on wealth management and wealth generating wealth. Anyways, you got to work with me on that one. But there's some interesting stuff going on in that space. All right, maybe it's not about selling a bushel of canola on that one, but still, I think it's gonna be an interesting one.
Marketing plan.
Crop marketing handbook workbook 101 and 1 and 201. Got two sessions on that. How to create your crop marketing plan.
[00:19:18] Speaker B: Alrighty.
[00:19:19] Speaker A: Farm financials, we have a speaker, couple sessions on farm financials, financial ratios, things to watch for, you know.
Again, folks, this is just. Those are just the breakout sessions. None of that was keynote.
[00:19:33] Speaker B: Alrighty.
[00:19:34] Speaker A: So if you're interested. Come join us in Moose Jaw. Leonard bought a ticket here yesterday. I saw. But we're selling them every week. What are we down to? I'll figure it out for you by the end of September, what we've got left for tickets here, but yeah, Moose Jaw, December 9th to 11th. Check everything out. Ryandeni CA agenda.
I would think we'll be releasing the agenda here in the next couple weeks. I think I've been teasing that for a while now, but speaker agreements are all out. Signatures are coming back. So yeah, should be good right away. Now, of course, we have our harvest playlist here on YouTube. Music.
It's what the futures hashtag, harvest25. Let's go a little country for this week. All right. I want you to start with a little Alan Jackson, maybe some country boy.
And then. And then two songs. Tyler Childress, he's an artist that I just started listening to a few months ago. He's got two tracks on this playlist that we put together and they're both phenomenal. If you like a little twang, it's. It's a good time. All right, so I've got three songs for this week because there's over 100 songs on that list and I'm just not going to get through them all. All righty. So that'll get you a little twang for this, this weekend while you're harvesting. All right. Positive moments for the week. I.
Well, we did go. We went camping one more time here. So we. We fit in. Kind of a rush camping trip, beautiful weather. And we did my daughter's birthday. She's turning five here. It's coming up. But we did a little birthday celebration. So we decorated the campsite, we had cake, and she wanted to go camping for her birthday, said, let's do it. And she. We went and did some shore fishing. She lost her first two fishing hooks. I swear she got 12 bites for sure.
Maybe they were rocks. But anyways, we had a good time camping. Did lots of biking, lots of trails, and it was fun.
[00:21:29] Speaker B: All right.
[00:21:31] Speaker A: And then my other one, I didn't mention this last week, but we.
Every late summer, late August, early September, we go to a bit of a. It's like a memorial event. It's a baby walk to remember. I almost fell off my chair when I counted. We've been to seven of these.
And so I've talked about this many times on the show here the last two years. But we lost our firstborn.
Eva was born and passed away essentially an hour after she was born.
We never knew why. We don't know what happened. We lost our firstborn.
And so we go to this walk and now we have two kids with us and we get to talk about our daughter and we get to spend a day.
You start thinking about it though, you start thinking about it leading up to the event. You start have the day of the event, you know, where it's nice day. It's always been a gorgeous day, weather wise.
We go out for family dinner, we go to a nice fun restaurant, we go for ice cream. We hit up the candy store this time. But it's just a very special day for, for my family. And it's, it's still a hard day. It's. It's incredible how you can think you're fine and then something will trigger you and you're near tears or at tears even seven years later. And the other thing that's really hard about the event is that, you know, we're there with our, our two kids. It's encouraged to come with your family. But you see the folks there that, you know that this is their first time, their first time attending this event and you just feel for them, you feel for what they're going through. You've sat in the same spot as them.
Again, I've talked about this a lot, but for me, there's no emptier feeling than leaving, leaving a hospital where you went into the hospital with the plan that you're going to leave with a newborn baby and you don't.
That is the.
I remember every step of that walk. I remember the elevator, the lobby, walking to the vehicle after. You remember everything about that. And so anyways, it's an important day to remember and to think about our daughter and to celebrate her as well. And those are just super important.
[00:23:53] Speaker B: All right?
[00:23:54] Speaker A: So that's why I put it into positive moments for this week. Okay, now let's get into the nuts and bolts here. Let's get into the nitty gritty of crop marketing for this week. Before we talk crops though, I want to talk about some input stuff.
So I don't know if like I should get some like flashing. Maybe I should get some flashing lights, like goal lights or something like that or some sound effects going for this one. But urea values in Alberta dropped $45 a ton this week. 5%.
A 5% drop in price in the quotes. Now, we know that globally urea values have been on the decline. Did not expect to see an instant impact here. Not instant, but an impact in the prairies in September. But Here we are, folks.
45 bucks a ton is not. Nothing like that is significant.
What that means I'm not exactly sure.
But we peaked and now we're on the way down. All right, so that's just something that you need to know. You need to hear.
We don't have enough transparency in fertilizer pricing across the prairies. I love to talk about it. I hope that year quotes also went down 5%, and I hope they go down even more so we can find a path to profitability here in 2026. The other thing, too, I noticed diesel prices dropped below a dollar a liter. 96 to 98 cents. That's on a full load again, folks. I'll get a quote of 98 cents, and I'll also get a quote of a buck 12 at the same time.
It's out there. There's, you know, some discrepancy out there. So. Anyways, wanted to highlight those two on the input side. All right, now, the teaser in this episode was about a floor, a price floor. Okay, Peas.
Have they hit a floor? Yes, they have.
You have yellow peas, green peas, maple peas all climbing this week. Maples and greens climbing a dollar a bushel from what I would call the harvest low and yellows going from high Sixes now to 750. Still a few trains out there to fill. Still seeing some prices, you know, 25 to 40 cents above the posted like the specials there to fill some cars. And so we found a little bounce here. Now everyone's concerned about for the yellow P market. What's December movement look like? What's January movement look like? What does the price do in. In the meantime? But we have found a floor.
[00:26:34] Speaker B: All right.
[00:26:35] Speaker A: I don't think we can deny it. I think we should give it a round of applause.
Thank you. Peace. Thank you. Feed barley. Feed barley values in Lethbridge have not dropped in 12 days. Do you guys know that? 12 days. They have not dropped steady for 12 days.
Have they rallied? No, but they've been steady. Okay, that's something. That's a bottom.
[00:26:57] Speaker B: All right.
[00:26:58] Speaker A: That's a bottom right now. That's good. And wheat. We'll see. We will see. But it looks like there's some promise there. Now.
I still. I need you to still be cautious on your recovery on the bounce, okay? I know you want a big rally and a big bounce. I'm not seeing that.
I'm really not seeing that. I'm just telling you, here's a floor.
Where do we go from here?
[00:27:23] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:27:24] Speaker A: And hopefully that is for higher values this winter and by a large degree, to pay for some of this carry.
[00:27:30] Speaker B: All righty.
[00:27:31] Speaker A: All right. So the Canola market finding, not that we'd call it exciting, per se. And have we found a floor? I don't think so. Not quite yet. You know, we recovered from 6, 10 to 6, you know, 40. That's 30 bucks a ton. You know, that's something. But have we found a floor? I don't think we're there quite yet because the Canola harvest, the bulk of it is here now. It's coming.
[00:27:57] Speaker B: All right.
[00:27:58] Speaker A: And there is some EPA stuff going on. Don't get me wrong, there's some biofuel policy stuff that as of recording, is we're trying to figure this out. So I'll get Susan Stroud on the show in short order to help us work through the latest in biofuel policy. But, yeah, we found a little bit of momentum here. Now, I still think the harvest low is ahead of us yet. But the couple things I wanted to point out from this week is I was listening to or reading Scott Mo's what he had to say after being in China over the last week or so. And there's just two things that I want to point out out of this article.
Now, don't get me wrong.
Premier Mo wants to unlock trade and to get Canola moving here. The one thing I pulled out of the article was that, you know, we, Canada, are aligned with the US on the EV tariffs to China.
[00:28:59] Speaker B: All right.
[00:29:00] Speaker A: So that the one thing I highlighted and then the, the quote below that just talks about how you might want to satisfy one.
Again, I'm paraphrasing here, but, you know, satisfied one area. Satisfy one area. Canada, remove the tariffs on, on China EV vehicles, but that might upset the U.S. and so they talked about it being like a fine line to walk and trying to figure out how to get this sorted out, but basically said it's not as easy as just removing this tariff. There's other things at play and you have to kind of consider everybody, meaning China, the US and of course Canada when it comes to that. So.
[00:29:43] Speaker B: All right.
[00:29:44] Speaker A: So again, this, this is looking for some positives here. Not finding much out of that.
And harvest just, just around the corner. Now, we'll see here when it comes to yield, Canola yield in short order, what we're looking at. But I'm expecting a fair size, fair size crop. Okay. I would say the last thing on Canola is I, yeah, I do think there's a spot here to, to make a Sale. If we do get a positive soybean oil rally, something positive out of dpa, then there's a chance to make a sale here. That's what I'm looking at doing for some of the 25 canola.
[00:30:25] Speaker B: All right.
[00:30:25] Speaker A: Okay, let's keep moving here. Harvest hustle. We'll do harvest hustle and then eating your veggies rate. Shortly after that, harvest hustle contest. This is for a trip to Halifax, Nova Scotia, folks. I'm talking curling, Olympic curling. I'm talking Alexander Keith's brewery, Peggy's Cove, lobster. I don't know. What else could you put? East coast hospitality. Anyways, a phenomenal trip, hotel, tickets to all the curling events, three square meals a day in the VIP lounge. We're going to draw for this probably that third week of October, that episode that week. I'm thinking this is November 22nd to November 30th. There are 20 entries so far.
22. 0. 20. If you want a trip to Halifax, folks, your odds are phenomenal right now. All you have to do, go to Ryandenee ca, upload your pictures. That's it. You'll be entered in. Fill out the form. You'll be entered in to win this curling trip package. All right, folks, 20 entries. You got this? Go get after it, okay? Of course, this harvest, I've been the farm.
You know, they're. They're actually. What are they on right now? Let me check. Chandere operations Center. Let's see if the crew is shut down. Oh, yes. 10 o' clock at night. They're definitely shut down. The wheat was testing 22.
Oh, they did make a move here. Oh, they moved back to home base.
[00:31:58] Speaker B: All right.
[00:31:59] Speaker A: Okay. They parked 43 minutes ago.
Oh, yeah, they're back at home base because they're going just north of the yard tomorrow. So get that equipment tucked in nice and safe for the night. Yeah, they're just going a little bit further north here tomorrow.
[00:32:17] Speaker B: All right.
[00:32:18] Speaker A: Looks like the grain cart's still hanging out in the field, though.
[00:32:20] Speaker B: All righty.
[00:32:21] Speaker A: Okay, so, John Deere operations Center. I'm certainly keeping tabs on the farm, watching yield and moisture specifically.
And, you know, for me, it's impacting our crop marketing decisions because I'm seeing these numbers roll in here and making tweaks on. On the fly, updating our cost of production, updating our numbers almost daily here every couple days, but also using this data to firm up our cropping plans for. For next year.
[00:32:47] Speaker B: All right.
[00:32:47] Speaker A: We're rolling all of this into harvest profit, which is A fantastic farm financial software. If you have, you know, a winter, a winter project ahead of you here, folks, it's to figure out, drill deep into your financials and figure out that game plan for 2026 and beyond.
I can't stress that enough that you need to know your numbers and harvest profit is a great tool to do that. I was chatting with someone involved in the banking industry and this week and they said, actually, I spoke to a lot of bankers this week, but they said, come at us as your lender. Come at us with your plan. What are you going to do? How are you going to do it?
What are you going to execute here? Let us come to us with that plan and you'll be in a better spot if you do. So this is just one tool for that. All right. Eating your veggies. I had a farmer ask me this week, Ryan, are you watching prices for the fall of 2026? I said, absolutely, I am, Randy. I'm watching all those prices and I think you should be watching those prices as well. So number one for eating your veggies fall of 2026, you're getting sandbagged on basis a little bit here, but get those. You know, maybe there's a target that makes sense for you.
You know, I asked a farmer the other day, I said, how much $8 wheat do you want to sell for next September? He said, what are you talking about? I'm like, it's basically eight bucks.
Our farm, you know, we got offered like 7:30 for wheat for next fall. You know, I'm not, I can't afford to do it. But you know, it's there. And then the farmer, you know, Randy, was drilling into Canola, like Ryan, Canola's north of 675 here. Like, what do you think? Yeah, start building your plan here and start executing. Get those targets in. Start building that plan for next year. Don't do what you did in 2025 for most of us, right? And we kind of got here and look back said, oh, we didn't. Didn't really have enough done. So start getting proactive on that plan. Number two, cash flow review.
[00:34:47] Speaker B: All right?
[00:34:49] Speaker A: It's important for you to just see when you need to pay bills next because I got a great quote. Trent Klarenbach has a new podcast out. I got a great quote from it here or comment that his latest guest made. But a record lentil crop. That's what's being reported for the price record lentil crop. And he said something along the lines of, if you need To.
[00:35:13] Speaker B: Oh, man.
[00:35:13] Speaker A: I'm paraphrasing again in this episode, but something about if you want to generate that cash from your lentils for January, you have to make the decision today.
So you have to look long and hard to get the sale on today to get in line to generate that cash in January, February again, I think that's what he meant by that comment.
But a record lentil crop. All right, anyway, cash flow review, very important. You have to do that.
Then. Last one here. I want you. Just breathe with me. Big breath in, breath out. You know, let's refocus. But I need you to reset your market expectations. Your crop market expectations. You have to look forward.
I wrote an article for Market Master last week. Don't. I said the title. Don't look in the rear view mirror. Not for too long. Look forward. Plan for today, plan for tomorrow, execute for next week.
[00:36:08] Speaker B: All right, you.
[00:36:10] Speaker A: We all need to do this. We need to reset our market expectations, our price expectations.
Take a moment to.
If you watch Men in Black, like, wipe your memory and look forward.
What's in front of me. Okay, yes, canola was 15 or $16 a few months ago, but what is it gonna be ahead of me? Make your plan moving forward. All right, folks, that's it for episode 93 of the what the Futures podcast. Thanks for hanging out. I really appreciate your time. Be safe out there at Harvest, all right? We are over the halfway mark. Government data is always a little behind. You guys are over the halfway mark. You know, big run coming here, a couple more weeks to go. Fingers crossed that the weather holds.
And weather's been a doozy for a bunch of you here lately, so moisture for next year, I guess.
But thanks for hanging out. Tell your friends, tell your neighbors if you thought this episode was useful. You know, pass it on. All right, I appreciate it. Again, stay safe. My name's Ryan, and for the what? The Futures podcast, I'm out of here.
