Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Perspective. That's what this week's episode is about. Seven great people from across Western Canada join me. They are either farmers, folks working in the farming industry. I asked them to bring their perspectives on what they're experiencing here in this tariff world. Headlines are changing. Things are moving. Volatility is through the roof. There's opportunity, there's risk, there's concern. There's lots going on right now for Western Canadian farmers. I wanted to talk about it. I wanted to get people's opinions. Me and seven others for episode 69 of the what the Futures podcast. Stick around.
Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast, where we break down complex market trends into simple, actionable advice. It's your quick guide to better farming decisions.
All right, folks, welcome into episode 69 of the what the Future Features podcast, of course, recorded in the UPL studio each and every week. Upl, a proud sponsor of the SJHL playoffs. We're gonna have some fun here with upl. Do you guys remember last year we did some giveaways? We gave away products like Battalion and Wave. We're gonna kick off this spring by giving away partnership with UPL four cases of a keto, which of course is a great product for you to use on your spring barley, spring wheat, your durum and oats as well. It's tough on cleavers, chickweed and more. And it is a proven product here for Western Canadian farmers. That is a keto. We're going to pick two winners, okay? They're each going to get four cases of Aikido. And I'm also going to slide in a little bit of what the future's beer. All right, we got some beer to add to this on our side. And all you have to do, go to our social media. What the future social media accounts. You can go to X, you can go to Instagram. You got to like and share the post. All right, step one, comment on where you farm. That's step two. And then for a bonus entry, you can tag a farmer that should enter. All right, nice and easy for you. And I also need to add in there, Please drink responsibly while watching your crops grow. So this is the Aikido Challenge, folks, in partnership with UPL. All right, episode 69 here. I've been thinking about this for quite some time. Well, like the last number of weeks here. But just to bring in a bunch of perspectives, we've been facing tariffs and uncertainty and headlines and, you know, stress has been up. I wanted to talk to many people here this week just to Get a bunch of different perspectives and not all doom and gloom. I asked everyone to give some positives because there are positives as well. You'll hear my own positives on our farm. You know, some of it is just, is just kind of sharpening up. Right? Just getting dialed in. If you've been walking through this a little, I don't want to say lazily, but just taking it for granted, maybe, and we've all been forced here to sharpen up, that's going to help make you better crop marketers and help you with your business decisions moving forward. So this episode, the layout of this episode is basically going to be just rolling through the seven conversations, plus my own with folks that are working with farms, folks that farm and maybe have a farm business as well, and even have some analyst perspective here on what's going on with these tariffs. And every segment is very short and brief and. Yeah. So I hope you enjoy the way we did this one. Episode 69 of the what the Futures podcast. Let's get into it here with my first guest, Suzanne. How, how are you doing today? How's, how are things?
[00:03:47] Speaker B: I'm good. How are you?
[00:03:49] Speaker A: I'm doing well. And you are sounding great as well. So, Suzanne, your first stop on this week's episode. This. I was just saying to the listeners, tariffs are not something I want to talk about forever, but it's having a big impact on, you know, businesses and individuals in the farming space in Western Canada. And so we need to talk about it because big decisions are happening one way or the other. And if we can provide some clarity and some help, I think that'll, that'll pay dividends down the road. So, Suzanne, with Market Master, my first question for you is just about, you know, what, what immediate impacts have the current, has the current tariff situation had on, on your business? You buy, you help farms facilitate grain transactions. What type of impacts are you seeing out there?
[00:04:44] Speaker B: A lot of uncertainty. Everybody doesn't know what to do. I mean, last week we were all, two weeks ago, I guess now we were all talking about U.S. tariffs and U.S. tariffs this, that, and the other. And then all of a sudden we got slapped with Chinese tariffs. Nobody saw that coming, which was such a shock. And everybody was watching canola markets and all this. And then all of a sudden you see the Chinese tariffs come on and like, what the heck was going on? And pea markets too. You know, we're preparing for new crop and what to do for new crop peas and all this. And then all of a sudden to see People go with no bid. And it was like, what the heck?
So how do you prepare for something that was unforeseen? Right. And just, no, nobody expecting this.
So it's a shocker.
[00:05:33] Speaker A: We were watching Winnie the Pooh with the kids Friday night and we do Friday night movie night. And I got the alert on my phone saying, hey, this just went down. And yeah. And then you see the weekend, everyone thinks about it all weekend. And then the no bids and. Yeah. So, you know, you're in your space. You're sitting there with farms that are, you know, planning ahead, maybe doing some new crop type stuff, tidying up some old crop decisions. Has that, is it still kind of frozen like, like if, if that hits on Friday night and everything stops, is it continue to, to stay like that? Or is there some kind of some light here at the end of the tunnel?
[00:06:16] Speaker B: It's one of those, that there's a lot of regret is one of the things that, you know, people are like, well, I've lost this much money.
And it's very hard to hear that because, well, did you ever lose that much money or not? You know, we need to stop talking about how much has been lost because marketing isn't really about how much you're losing. It's. You need to look at where do you start making money and start looking at those kind of things instead of talking about where the top of the market was and where we are from there.
I hear a lot of, I only make money If I have $15 canola. And that's the thing where it's like, is that actually the bottom line? Because I think people need to start realistically knowing where the bottom line is nowadays because the markets are fluctuating so much.
And with it being an up and down market, you need to know exactly where the bottom line is and when you need to pay bills instead of trying to always hit the tops.
And it's just craziness. It really is. And trying to make a plan based on hitting the top of the market all the time is very hard in these situations. So it's been wild.
[00:07:31] Speaker A: If you find someone that can do that, can you get them to call me, please?
[00:07:36] Speaker B: I thought that was you, Ryan.
[00:07:38] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. No, unfortunately not.
Like my point here, the last couple weeks as well has been about making that next good decision. And, and also not every crop has been impacted by this yet. I'm sure you're seeing a few crops that are, are hanging in really well or maybe surprising you to the upside.
And so my message has been you know, go and make that next good decision. If you have a crop that hasn't been impacted, hasn't dropped in value or maybe has climbed in value, then why wouldn't you go ahead and. And just make that decision? You know, make a positive decision for the farm? Because that positive decision can lead to some. Some good decisions moving forward.
Freezing and getting angry and looking back, don't get me wrong, folks, you can take the time to do that and process that. We all need to process that. But yet we can't turn back the clock or we can't turn back time. So what can you do here? Just one little step moving forward.
Is there anything that stands out? Suzanne, as you know what your greatest concern is right now in this environment, the way we're sitting today, I know there's a lot of unknowns yet, but does anything stand out as a concern?
[00:09:03] Speaker B: Stability of companies is a big thing. I'm not saying anything negative about anybody in general, but I think putting, and I say this all the time as a broker, putting all your eggs in one basket.
You know, if you're making a sale of, say, 2,000 tons, if you can get the same price or within a couple cents with one company, why sell everything to one person? Divvy up your risk.
We don't know the stability of the industry in general, and I hate saying that, but there's so much going on with tariffs, with international trade, with everything. I think it's a good idea to diversify risk right now. It's awful for me to say as a broker too, because it's like, hey, don't just use one brokerage. Don't just use one person. Divvy up your risk. There's so much going on right now that we don't know how stable everybody is. Use license and bonded. Again, I've said that millions of times, but just evaluate who you're working with and maybe just, you know, if you're selling stuff, make sure your payment terms are short, stuff like that. Try to keep your risk low.
Also, if somebody's offering you a price that seems ridiculous, it always is.
There's no reason for people to pay over the market because there's a lot of grain. There's not as much as we think, but there's still a lot of grain out there and other things like 5 cents on a couple loads. Think about how much that really is. When you look at the big picture, it's usually a couple hundred bucks. If the markets drop, say, barley from 6 bucks to 5.95, maybe that's not a bad price. Nowadays, even on something like wheat, you want to hit $9. I mean, that's a really high price right now. But 8.95, it's a couple hundred bucks. Maybe that price won't be there again.
So really evaluate your prices and who you're selling with. Look at the big picture of things nowadays. It's really. We've never been in these situations before. I mean, not only tariffs, we've got war still going on. We've got things that we've never seen in our industry before. And I talked to guys in our industry for 50 years, and I say to them, because, I mean, I've only been doing this for 12 years, I'm a baby in the industry.
And when they're like, I don't know what to tell you. I've never seen this in my career. That's something that's really shocking to hear. Because when you've got people who have 50 years of experience and they've never experienced this, especially all of these things together, I think we really need to evaluate that and be like, okay, we don't know what next step is. We don't know where this is. So really try to evaluate where you are yourself.
[00:11:36] Speaker A: I also want to just dig into the one point there about the state of the, of the industry, and I just want to highlight two things. So when you see large companies, you know, making their job cuts and their layoffs, that's one indication that these publicly traded companies, you know, things are tight out there or negative or, or they want to run really lean, whatever it is. But even though you may not hear that from some of the smaller companies, those same impacts are still there.
And the other thing, too, and I, I don't know if this is an industry secret or, or not, but when you have certain commodities that you can't hedge and the market takes a big drop, a rally is okay. Because just think, you bought a yellow pea at $10 and the price goes to 11 globally, like, you're fine. But when the price goes from 10 to 8, if you bought those at 10 and it goes to 8, there's no way to hedge yourself. You had to make sure that you had that sold. And most of the time that is not the case. There's always exposure there. And so for us, when I look at the state of the industry and a market that declines, and if it declines rapidly, those are scary times. That's when it gets a little bit dangerous out there. So to your points, I'm seeing payment Drag. I'm seeing payment drag from many companies right now, and I understand.
And most of them are bonded. But again, good points that you brought up. All right, now let's try to be a little positive here, Suzanne. What's coming across on the positive side right now with where we're sitting today? Is there anything that stands out that you can hang your hat on for positivity?
[00:13:33] Speaker B: I mean, barley's been strong.
I say that, and then I get a lot of flack from farmers when I say that.
You know, Central Alberta, it's a.
[00:13:43] Speaker A: It's a crop that has all the stuff's going on and it's just like steady Eddie. Like it's just steady out there or. It has been pretty steady, in my opinion.
[00:13:53] Speaker B: But Yeah, I mean, 5, 75, $6 still hits around Central Alberta. That.
[00:14:00] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:14:00] Speaker B: You know, seeing everything else drop the way it has, it's still not a bad buck. Even new crop barley, 550, 560 in Central.
Is that going to be a good price? We don't know. I mean, absolutely. We don't know. But if your cost of production, that's making you some money, maybe it's not bad to have a couple loads locked in for the fall.
[00:14:19] Speaker A: I sold barley recently, Suzanne. I've sold some new crop barley. So I'm with you.
[00:14:24] Speaker C: Yeah.
[00:14:25] Speaker B: And that's the thing, right? I mean, it's there, you know, it's. It's something that usually it grows right. Unless we have some really bad droughts. But even this year, you look at it, buyers had a discount schedule for light barley. I suspect that will continue for last year or for next year. And so I don't think it's a bad bet for next year. Oats are still, I mean, over four bucks even. 450.
[00:14:48] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:14:48] Speaker B: And there's specials on them. It's still, you know, a moneymaker for most people. I say that because everybody tells me their cost of production is $5. So it's going to be one to watch.
And then white wheat, I mean, we're seeing 770 picked up in the yard for quite a few areas. It's another one that seems to be a good moneymaker for some people. And there's still a lot of buyers for it.
And CPS wheat, that's another one if you watch it. A lot of elevators have been hitting pricing where it's the same price as hard red some weeks. So, yeah, that's a great option.
[00:15:22] Speaker A: Yep. All right, so there's some positivity out there. Same Thing with the oat market, Suzanne, the oat, everything. Chaos around us. And oats is just like, I'm just gonna hang around right here and not move. I know in parts of Saskatchewan, they saw some. Some big declines short term with the tariff, US Tariff stuff, but that's all kind of come back, so. All right, Suzanne, thanks so much for joining me here on. On this episode. Appreciate your. Your insight and your context and.
Yeah, we'll just take it a day at a time.
[00:15:52] Speaker B: Exactly right. It's always wild.
[00:15:54] Speaker A: Yeah, for sure. All right, have a good rest of your week.
[00:15:57] Speaker B: You too.
[00:16:01] Speaker A: All right, we've got Riley Wallace joining us here now. Riley, looks like you're having a busy day. Live from the cab of the truck. Man, how's it going?
[00:16:12] Speaker D: Oh, good.
[00:16:12] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:16:13] Speaker D: We actually just got to Lloydminster here. Got a combine clinic of all things today, so.
[00:16:18] Speaker A: Perfect.
[00:16:19] Speaker D: Yeah, I guess we'll get that done.
[00:16:21] Speaker A: So I've been asking people for this episode, you know, what impact are the tariffs having on your farming operation as we kind of got into it over the last couple weeks here?
[00:16:31] Speaker D: Well, I mean, it obviously put in a lot of volatility into the markets the wrong way. Fortunate for us, I guess. You know, the old crop was at least priced and cleaned out before the proverbial shit hit the fan, I guess. And. But yeah, more obviously just concerned about new crop here more than anything now. And. Yeah, just seems like there's a lot of, I think, some drastic decisions getting made here now in regards to seeding plans and things, perhaps.
[00:16:59] Speaker A: So. Yeah, I want to talk about drastic decisions in a second, but you say that I noticed you've been busy. One of the busiest farmers across my feed hauling. Hauling grain here the last month or so. Was that just kind of normal plan for you guys, business as usual, or did you guys change things up here this year?
[00:17:19] Speaker D: Didn't change things up too much. We kind of try to have the bins empty before seeding, but I mean, we definitely were playing a little more on the defensive side on the marketing scheme this year as versus other years, just with all.
Yeah, the US Tariff uncertainty and then the China tariff uncertainty that was lingering and now it's back or now it's in full force.
[00:17:40] Speaker A: So.
[00:17:41] Speaker D: Yeah, so it's just kind of more of a defensive marketing strategy this year. So.
[00:17:46] Speaker A: Yeah. Yeah, our. Our philosophy on the farm, too, is to get things cleaned up before planting. Is. It's been like that for many, many decades on our farm. I would say so. All right, you mentioned drastic changes. Is this stuff you're hearing in, you know, in the neighborhood or is there drastic changes happening on your farm for 2025 with the tariffs?
[00:18:07] Speaker D: Yeah, more just speaking to other farming families and whatnot and yeah, there's nothing changed for our plan. Yeah, where we farm, we don't make money on Canola. We're in, we're in pretty dire straits.
[00:18:20] Speaker A: So. 100%.
[00:18:21] Speaker D: Yeah, yeah. So Canola is always going to be there. So it's, you know, typically about 50% of the acres we put in every year.
[00:18:29] Speaker A: So.
[00:18:30] Speaker D: Yeah, so no changes for us.
[00:18:32] Speaker A: Yeah, I same thing for our farmer where, where we are here in the northern side of Saskatchewan is, you know, Canola acres play a big, big, big part of farm profitability for us. And you know, I think you bring up some, a couple interesting things there comments and you know, number one being, you know, making these big bold decisions here of, you know, we're hearing people switch acres in a big way. I'm not saying that's going to be right or wrong, but I just know that there's follow up decisions that need to happen with that. And if you are switching into a big, you know, a big switch into a different crop, don't forget about your crop marketing plan because yeah, if everyone's making that switch, things may look a little different in a few weeks. So I think that some good context here is, you know, I look back at, at you know, back in my career and you know, making some of these big bold decisions in the past is, has not really worked out and I just encourage people to look at the big picture and look at, you know, your farm operation over multiple years, even crop rotation over multiple years. Right. When you make some of these changes can have a big impact on what your acres look like next year and the year after and so on and so forth. So. All right, so kind of business as usual for the, for the farm.
What's your biggest concern right now? As we, you know, we're in the later part of March here. What's top of mind on, on the concern side for you?
[00:20:09] Speaker D: Basically it just be getting back to level, level the profitability on the marketing side on the new crop side would be the main thing. So you know, we got a decent start kind of kind of in line to where we usually get our marketing going. But yeah, definitely get a want, want to get to that, you know, kind of 40, 50% sold at a, at a decent profitable level there to kind of mitigate the price risk. So that's top of my mind right now.
[00:20:34] Speaker A: So do you Think your crop marketing plan is changing and evolving here for, for 2025. Are you kind of stick into what, what's worked in the past?
[00:20:46] Speaker D: Yeah, I think kind of sticking to what worked in the past.
[00:20:49] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:20:49] Speaker D: Yeah. I. As dire as things are now, things can turn around just as quickly. So I don't think it's wise to get too far over a person's skis in, in either direction really right now. So it's not like it was, you know, 2022 when you were staring $25 canola in the face or whatever it was like, I mean, good old days. Yeah, yeah, good old days.
[00:21:13] Speaker A: I definitely agree with you. And it sounds like you've bought yourself a little bit of time here as well, because your crop marketing plan, it sounds like you've done some stuff already. So you do have a bit of time here as well. As we enter the growing season and you know, the one thing that keeps sticking in my mind is we haven't grown it yet. And prairie farmers do a fantastic job of growing a big crop and we're going to grow a big crop this year because we need all the bushels. But still not a guarantee yet at the end of March. And we learned last year it wasn't a guarantee in early July either. So that comes into play. All right, what about like positivity side here for the farm? Is there anything that you kind of reach at and say, you know what, this is a little bit more positive for the farm or this is something that's going to help our business here today or in the future? Is there anything on that front for you?
[00:22:07] Speaker D: Well, on the farm front, I don't think there's anything too base level there that's too driving the positivity, but just more from a large scale things, you know, whether you love Trump or hate them, I think it's getting the conversation going across this country that, you know, we need diversified markets, we need pipelines, you know, we need these internal trade barriers knocked down. So I think that's all good things, regardless of the short term pain that we've got to endure. So I, I am looking forward to what may come of that. So. Yep, I've been thinking a lot about that lately.
[00:22:44] Speaker A: Yeah, we have to spend some, some concentrated time and effort in, in figuring out those channels. Right. And, and for the long term good and benefits. So. Yeah, I'm with you on that one. That's about all I had for questions here when it comes to tariffs for, for today. But anything else you want to add before I let you go.
[00:23:04] Speaker D: Yeah, I don't really think so. Yeah, we're kind of just sticking to our guns and, and focusing on the year and we'll control that. We control and that's what we do. So.
[00:23:14] Speaker A: Yeah, I mean, yeah, no, good advice for sure. Right on. Riley, thanks for coming on the show this week and talk to you soon, man.
[00:23:21] Speaker D: Yeah, thanks for having me.
[00:23:26] Speaker A: All right, folks, so we've heard from quite a few individuals here with different perspectives. Again, we don't want to talk about tariffs every week on the what the Futures podcast, but it's having such a big impact here for Western Canadian farmers in the industry that thought it'd be a really good idea to have all these perspectives. So I want to turn it a little bit here for us to some resources. Obviously, big things are happening in the agriculture space right now, and the one thing that as an industry that we struggled with in the past is identifying some of the resources available. So I'm, I'm excited to just welcome into the episode here Dr. Brianna Hagan from the Canadian center of agricultural well being. Dr. Hagan, welcome to the what the Futures podcast.
[00:24:18] Speaker E: Thank you for having me.
[00:24:19] Speaker A: I'm just, I don't know if I want to say, you know, relieved, but it is just really, really awesome and special to have someone like yourself, an organization like yourself, available for farmers in this time of need. So why don't you tell us a little bit about what you guys are doing? I think we did. We shorten it up to ccaw. Is that the acronym we're going with? All right.
[00:24:47] Speaker E: Yeah, that's right.
[00:24:48] Speaker A: Why don't you give us a little bit of a background on what you guys are up to?
[00:24:52] Speaker E: Yeah. Thank you. So CCW has been around now for just over two years, and we are an organization that's national in scope. So we are here to help support some of those provincial organizations that have been doing really good work in the mental health in farming space and to provide some stability in terms of getting national resources that are evidence based and farm tailored. So that's what we've been working on over these first couple of years, and we're thrilled that the national crisis line is now available for farmers.
[00:25:26] Speaker A: All right, so I want to get to the crisis line in just a second here as well. But you mentioned some skills, I believe, and that this has been a project that started a couple years ago.
What has been that focus over the last couple years?
[00:25:42] Speaker E: Yeah, so actually, if we go back even further, so almost 10 years of research has kind of gone into the development of these programs. And what farmers across Canada told us in this research was that when they are experiencing a mental health struggle or a mental health crisis, they really want the support that's available to them to understand what it's like to be a farmer in Canada. So what we did at CCAW was develop that evidence based programming that teaches counselors, psychologists, and other people who work in mental health what it's like to live and breathe agriculture in Canada. So the Canadian ag literacy program is available to those professionals. And every professional that works on our crisis line has taken that training. So that when someone comes in or calls in, they know what it's like, what those stresses particular to farming are, what it's like to have a crisis on your farm and what mental health struggles might look like for a farmer specifically.
[00:26:37] Speaker A: Okay, yeah, super, super important and relevant. You know, having to start a conversation about explaining everything you're doing to get to the stress points or what. Like that is taxing and an obstacle. So I'm really, really glad to hear that you guys have come up with some programming and support for the counselors out there. Um, so you know, this is available across Canada. You've got professionals spread out across the country then, or how does that kind of work?
[00:27:17] Speaker E: Yep, that's right. So we have professionals who've been trained in every province across Canada. You can call any time of day. It's a 24 hour service. You can get services in English or French, depending on what you prefer.
And if you would like to keep where you're from anonymous, that is also okay. If you want to say, hey, I'm from Alberta, then you know, you can be connected with someone in that region who's been trained in calp as well. So there are some options there. So I just really want to highlight that it is a 24 hour service. There is no mental health struggle or stress too small or too large. Call in, talk to somebody.
[00:27:55] Speaker A: Yeah, you bet. I echo that as well.
Is there opportunities to chat with the same individual? If you're, you know, building that rapport with somebody over a couple of different sessions, is that an opportunity or is it just as who's available at the time?
[00:28:16] Speaker E: Yeah, so that's actually a really great question. Thank you for asking that. So the crisis line itself is kind of when you call in with something really acute and specific and that would probably you could ask, but if that person isn't on shift at that time or that day, you might not get the same person if you call again. However, the other Thing that we're doing through the crisis line is we're partnering with these smaller organizations in the provinces that have farm tailored ongoing counseling services so that that information can be shared with the individual so they can connect for more long term ongoing service rather than in an acute crisis, which is, which is what that line is really for.
[00:28:54] Speaker A: All right, and let's give us that, that phone number here as well. How do people get a hold of you guys?
[00:29:01] Speaker E: Yeah, so it's actually 1-866-FORMS01, so 1-866-327-6701. And like I said, you can call 24 hours a day, seven days a week. You can call from a tractor, you can call from your barn, you can call from your truck. It doesn't matter.
[00:29:19] Speaker A: All right, that sounds, that's awesome. 24 hours, folks as well. So I've been asking, you know, the, the other folks on the episode this week, like, what impact has, you know, the current tariff environment had on, on your organization or your day to day, and I'd like to ask it to you as well, Dr. Hagan. Is there anything that stands out from where you guys sit and. Yeah, changes or impacts from the current tariff conversation?
[00:29:48] Speaker E: Yeah, definitely. I think the biggest impact is how the stress is compounding. So this is one more thing that's adding to already stressful times. There's already high prices, there's already tumultuous climate that people are dealing with and the weather that is, you know, not always cooperating or moving into planting. So we're already kind of at a high stress season where folks may be needing to reach out for help. And the tariff conversation has just ratcheted to that up one more level. So people are experiencing some pretty serious anxiety around, around this for very good reason. So like I said, if your anxiety is ratcheting up or your stress is starting to feel, you know, your shoulders are up here and it's very, very stressful. It's worth a call in for a conversation.
[00:30:33] Speaker A: Yeah. As someone who has, has and has those resources available to me as well, I can't echo that enough of just reaching out to somebody, honestly, even if it's just, it sounds like the smallest thing, but even if it's just to have a conversation about something different for five minutes, like it can mean the world and change your world in short order. So. All right. Dr. Brianna Hagan, I appreciate you coming on the show here this week again. We know it's tough out there, folks and the season is ahead of us where many of you don't get a lot of sleep as well. To add to this again, folks, the phone number there, 1-866-327-6701. That's the Canadian center for Agricultural well Being. They're there to help you folks reach out anytime, 24 hours a day. I am going to have Dr. Brianna back on here in the next couple weeks. We're going to do a much bigger discussion about the organization and everything they have going on over there. But in the meantime, thank you so much for joining me on this episode. I appreciate it and I'm looking forward to our conversation.
[00:31:54] Speaker E: Thanks for having me.
[00:31:59] Speaker A: All right, folks, so we've, we're going to keep the ball rolling here. We've talked to a few people already, some different perspectives out there. Some themes starting to emerge here as well. And you know, I just want people to know that as we, as we go through these discussions, you're, these folks are facing the same, same challenges as you on your farm. So let's, let's bring in Sarah Cachet with Trigger Grain Marketing. Sarah, how's it, how's it going this Wednesday?
[00:32:35] Speaker C: Hey, Ryan. It is pretty good. It's a beautiful day out here.
[00:32:38] Speaker A: Awesome. Yeah, it's been a nice couple days here too. But apparently my wife said winter is going to arrive one more time, so we'll see. All right, Sarah, I've, I've had a bunch of people on the show this week doing something a little bit different and you don't know what's coming at you here, but it is tariff related.
You work with farmers across Saskatchewan and Alberta, right? A little bit in Alberta as well. And the question I have for you, I got three. But the first one is what impacts have tariffs had on you or your business? And you have the unique perspective. You also farm. So what impacts have you seen so far?
[00:33:20] Speaker C: Well, obviously the impacts are huge. Everybody's bottom line is being affected. Things are changing on a day to day basis. So it's impossible to make. Well, not impossible. It's very hard to make forward decisions. It's hard to have a base price for the grains and oil seeds that are affected to for planning purposes. And we've had a lot of acre swaps going on in the last couple of weeks ever since the China tariffs. So it's making planning a nightmare. It's affecting everybody's bottom line, obviously my own as well. And it's adding huge stress. Everybody.
[00:33:57] Speaker A: Yeah, we, we actually had Dr. Brianna Hagan join us from the Canadian center of Agricultural well being a resource for farmers to Reach out to in these tough times, they have a 24 hour line available.
And so anyways, it's tough out there and it's, it's challenging. Now if we separate you out a little bit here. So from your farm perspective, have you made any, any big changes for the farm for 2025 or you've kept the plan kind of steady?
[00:34:30] Speaker C: I've kept my plans steady mainly because I'm a wheat and canola kind of girl. So if I had had these in my rotation this year, I likely would have taken them out. Plan is steady, but I made some sales the day that the China tariffs came out that I didn't plan on making otherwise. They weren't, they weren't in my marketing plan. And I acted quickly and made some sales, which they've been, I think, good sales. But it, we were forced to move quickly and adapt. Adapt.
[00:35:01] Speaker A: Yeah.
Fair enough. And when you look at your consulting clients, the farms you're working with, I guess, what changes have you seen there?
[00:35:10] Speaker C: Like I said, P Acres swapping out. Everybody's running the numbers again. We'd already run like our break even cost per acre like power rankings earlier on in the winter and now everybody is. We were just penciling it out all over again in the last couple of weeks and trying to find the crops that are going to be the safest or the potentially most profitable. So, you know, extra conversations, people are scrambling, looking for seed for different crops that they haven't grown before and researching crops that they haven't grown before to see if it fits into their, into their farm plan. Loads of changes. Busy, busy month.
[00:35:50] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, definitely. You know, but going back to running numbers like we've, you know, it's been a couple years here where we haven't had to work too hard. Like, you know, ballpark numbers were okay, but with 2024, now, 2025, just sharpening up those numbers and knowing exactly where you stand is a good idea here for, for moving forward when it comes to crops. Like is there anything, like you said, take the, the peas out potentially.
Is there anything that kind of stands out for you from what crop farms are looking at?
[00:36:32] Speaker C: Yeah, surprisingly oats.
Oats make sense, I think for, for 2025, I have people that haven't ever grown oats before that are swapping them in because they were able to get some pretty decent new crop. Oh, prices, they pencil pretty good. As long as you get some yield and flax that people haven't grown in a few years, it's made sense to swap some flax acres back in.
[00:36:58] Speaker A: Yeah, the word of wisdom I'll have is, and like you said, people were contracting some oats, but if you're going to make the swap, uh, don't forget about the crop marketing side. So I know Sarah's got your back on that one, but that's the one. One thing that frustrates me is make a switch and then do nothing. And it's like, wait a minute, other people made the switch too. Like, acres are evolving.
[00:37:22] Speaker C: But yeah, I had one grower that actually he set a target on some oats before he even had them in the crop plan just to see if he could get the value that he needed. And then once the target triggered, then his oats are now actually going to.
[00:37:36] Speaker A: Happen in the plan. All right, sounds good. My second question here is, you know, what is your greatest concern in this environment right now? Like, is there anything that's kind of keeping you up at night or bothering you the. The most here during this tariff trade war we have going on?
[00:37:55] Speaker C: I mean, it's really hard to pick one, but there's definitely been more lost sleep than I normally, normally experience.
I'm concerned about the canola industry and I think that there are some glimmers of hope to be found. It's not going to be all doom and gloom, but we can't really afford to have China tariffs, US Tariffs and no biodiesel credits going on. I feel like we can afford to have one or maybe two and still see some decent, like, you know, profitable canola prices. But if we have all three of those, it's very concerning. And right now all three of them are up in the air, so it's so hard to make any decisions.
[00:38:40] Speaker A: Yeah, I'm with you. And like, my biggest concern is, is still the biodiesel, the biofuel policy. Like, that's my. If I put my concerns in order, that's. That's number one for me because I just view it as very slow to change, whereas tariffs. You know, even last night I read an article, you know, about China wanting to come to the table on a free trade agreement with Canada. Like, again, we're not going to go into all the implications that could have with our neighbors of the south. But there's tariffs to me are they move around, they're negotiable, as we see with Trump. They're in and out. And I view them as more temporary. So I think tariff announcements can have big down days like we've seen, but could also lead to big up days as well when they're reversed. But policy, to me, that takes more time.
[00:39:40] Speaker C: Yeah. And I mean, the biodiesel could be our, like I said, glimmer of hope through all of the tariff garbage, but it's just there right now.
[00:39:50] Speaker A: Yeah, exactly. I. And again, folks, I've said this already in the episode, but just, you know, buying yourself a bit of time here, not. Not rushing to big, big decisions and times of duress, it often does not. Does not pay. So. All right, Sarah, I want to be. I want to be positive here. You know me, I like to spin some positivity around this. So what positives can you kind of take away from this experience so far? What stands out.
[00:40:19] Speaker C: That's a tough one. I do think that everybody's getting more educated and, like, more, like, outspoken. Like, our farm groups and farmers are starting to realize that, like, we. We need to, like, make our voices be heard and kind of group together a little bit. And even on, like, a broader sense, like with all of the Canadian tariffs, I think we've. Obviously, there's a lot of, like, unrest within Canada, but it's definitely been good to see, like, everybody wanting to buy Canadian and, like, look out for Canadian interests first and foremost. So, yeah, on a broader scale, it's nice to see the Canadians come together, and I think it's probably going to make farmers come together, speak out, you know, advocate for ourselves a little bit more. Because that's. I feel like right now our politicians are completely ignoring the farm groups and the farmers that are getting just stomped on and that can't keep. Yeah, it's up to all of us. Yeah, speak up.
[00:41:17] Speaker A: Yeah, it's been basically very, very quiet from. From od, so not, you know, there's been a few things here, maybe some changes to anchor stability, but those are not. Not a guarantee. That's still up in the air. We have an election coming up right away, and. And then I think there was a tweak to the.
The Canola Advanced or the Advanced program, but I feel that the Advanced program is so far behind that these tweaks aren't even catching it up yet. It's like the advanced programs operating in 2015 and we're 10 years down the road here in 2025.
[00:42:02] Speaker C: Is the exact same. They said the numbers hadn't been updated in 20 years. So I think. And it's lost so many growers over the last few years just because it hasn't been worthwhile for people. I don't think agristability is the way to. To show up for farmers. Right now they need to do a lot better than that.
[00:42:20] Speaker A: Well, I. I read a statistic. I think it was 25% of farmers are. Are actually in acre stability. Um, I don't know if that number's gone up or what that looks like, but I know in my conversations over the last five, six years, it was definite and it's a far from perfect offering as well. Where down south of us, I think checks hit the bank accounts this week. Right.
[00:42:52] Speaker C: I know it's immediate and we're so slow and so far behind. It's very frustrating.
[00:42:58] Speaker B: That's.
[00:42:58] Speaker C: Sorry, that's not very positive. But I think it can become positive if we all.
[00:43:04] Speaker A: Yeah, well, coming. Coming together. You started with coming together, and then we went down a bit of a bunny trail there. So, yeah, I did have a farmer here as well that I recorded with for these sessions and, you know, along the same lines of coming together, but also taking a time to look at new. New channels, you know, new. New customers, new infrastructure, maybe breaking down some of the trade barriers with, you know, between provinces and across this country. So things like that. So I'd say similar to what. What you're mentioning there as well, so.
All right, Sarah with Triggergreen. Thanks for coming on the show this week. A little bit short notice, but I appreciate it.
[00:43:51] Speaker C: Thanks so much for having me. It's always good to chat.
[00:43:54] Speaker A: Have a good start to spring.
Quentin with JGL. Thanks for. For joining me here on. On episode 69, we've had folks from, you know, Western Canada doing all sorts of different things. We've got, you know, analyst perspective. We've had some physical cash brokerage perspective. We've had some farmer perspective as well, and also some mental health awareness. So. So, Quinton, thanks for coming on here and doing this.
I've just got a couple of questions here I want to run through. I've been asking everybody kind of the same thing, but, you know, you're dealing with farmers, you know, each and every day here across the prairies. And I just want to know or ask what. What impact have the tariffs had on. On you or your business?
[00:44:48] Speaker F: Tariffs have had a big impact on our business.
A lot of folks that had protection on, have seen large benefits.
And then you start to get in these questions now, what should I do? Should I be reaping these rewards now? Like, is this the magnitude event that I was trying to protect for Becomes a little bit philosophical, right? Like, okay, do I hold this till November? If these were November puts or July puts, should I hold these further? How much worse can we get. So that whole question, question line has been a common one for me. And then the other question is, for those that didn't have anything on, what do they do next? Right. Are we supposed to be. Should we be taking it? Trying to. Is this an opportunity to be getting long? Are we going to recuperate there? Overall, a lot of volatility. Any questions around protection and the whole theory of getting protection on after your kind of, so to speak, houses on fire, those are interesting sets of questions to answer to. Implied volatility rallied up hard, so puts became quite expensive.
Yeah, lots of effects. We see direct effects. This is definitely one where, you know, just had a baby. I'm losing more sleep over the tariff stuff, to be honest.
[00:45:58] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, fair enough. So would you say, and this may not be a fair question, but we're. We're folks a little bit not prepared for this, but we're farmers kind of having this as part of the risk management conversation before it got worse here in March, or would you say that it wasn't necessarily top of mind for most?
[00:46:26] Speaker F: I would say it'd be not top of mind for most, including myself, to be honest. Just having a little too much bullish stance. You're looking at the supply and demand charts or sheets that we work on and just not enough focus on. Okay, well, what happened if this was a great example of, okay, make sure we always are doing our due diligence with the risk side of things and try not to be too optimistic all the time. For sure.
[00:46:50] Speaker A: Well, that Friday, you know, the Friday, the market had rallied. Canola rallies for three days.
I go into that Friday afternoon thinking, okay, early next week here, I think I'm going to get some stuff done. I'm going to sell some physical canola or do something right? And then, yeah, we're watching a show with the kids that night, and it comes out and I'm like, all right, okay. I guess next week ain't happening for me. So. Yeah, okay, I'm with you on that one. When you chat with your client base right now, is it still. Does it lean more towards risk protection? Are they leading that part of the conversation, or is it more about, hey, I'm. I'm optimistic here that this is gonna sort itself out and. And markets are gonna climb?
[00:47:39] Speaker F: I would say, generally, most conversations are led with, what are the opportunities? Should I be adding a position here?
I would say that's. That would lead the conversation for sure. Yeah.
[00:47:50] Speaker A: Okay. I had a great conversation with a group, group of farmers and they had been at a farmer curling, Bond, Spielberg, that weekend prior. And they said, you know, in that, at that Bond spiel talking to farmers, there was a lot of unsold grain and not a lot of fear or concern. And that worries me a little bit because I thought there'd be a bit more concern out there. But when I talk to farms, and even outside of that conversation, yeah, there's still optimism out there, which you need to have. I'm not saying you can't be optimistic, but these are severe times and, and yeah, it's challenging out there.
[00:48:36] Speaker F: So, yeah, it's. It's a tough one. I, I agree. If you're majorly undersold it, I would be. There's still a lot of icebergs out there left that, you know, we could potentially bang into as well. Not just tariffs. Right.
So, yeah. Yep, there is.
[00:48:54] Speaker A: Okay.
So do you have, you know, your, your job is to remain. I'd say you guys are calm, cool and collected more than anything. But is there anything out there that that kind of, you know, might be a concern for you? You mentioned a few icebergs out there, but is there anything kind of that stands out that you're like, okay, this is something that, that is on my mind a bit more. Yeah.
[00:49:19] Speaker F: US Biofuel policy, like immediate thing that comes to my mind that is probably going to be more discussed in April here. Right. Mid April is what it looks like. So we're that verdict or where that lands. Are we going back to tax credit to. What's happening is going to be.
That's important.
[00:49:41] Speaker A: And you're not the only one that brought that up so far on in these mini sessions. So I'm with you. That's. For me, that's public enemy number one. Like that is the one that I sit and say policy is slow to evolve. And in my opinion, it can be slow to evolve. I hope. I just wish that we get clarity and it's positive, but for some reason it's the status quo of where we're at today. That is just not a good sign. So. And slow tariffs, they come and go. Right.
Policy to me is a bit. Takes a bit longer. Yeah.
[00:50:18] Speaker F: I would put that as scarier or a bigger risk than the tariff stuff as well.
[00:50:24] Speaker A: Yeah.
All right. I like to be positive as well. So let's spin this here a little bit to the positive side.
Is there anything, any takeaways here over the last couple of weeks? Again, we're recording this late March, we still have US Tariffs hanging over our heads. Here for April. But what positives can you take away from this experience?
[00:50:47] Speaker F: So far, I suppose the positives I can take away, maybe I have two. One positive, one learning experience, so to speak, which I think is positive. Number one is having protection on for those that were able to be protected, like they're sitting there trying to make they're funner decisions to make, I suppose. Right. Is taking. I'll be reaping this reward that I've set up for myself. That's a much easier decision or a better decision to be making. It's a funner one. More enjoyable than questioning what, you know, what should I do now? If you're sitting there, tougher situation. So that, that's been fun and, you know, enjoyable and easy to be like, this is exactly why we do this. Right, right. I remember. This is why we purchase puts or have some downside protection. Excuse me. Outside of that. So one learning experience I had was just when you are facing long positions built up to a major level, like we saw like 85,000 contracts long in the manage money or non commercial side, just always remember to be humble with that one because if those, those can be bullish experiences. Like last time I was on the podcast, I was like, I think this is a good thing and we're going to be headed up. And maybe if the news didn't happen, that would be the scenario. But just remember that those things ought to come off in bad news too. So anytime that's happening, be sure you're going back to your risk management and positioning yourself just in case something negative happens. And those things got to come off. Those contracts got to come off.
[00:52:10] Speaker A: What is that number? What was the last update on that number?
[00:52:14] Speaker F: They sold off 52,000.
[00:52:16] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:52:17] Speaker F: And now the number is sitting at negative 29,000. So short 29,000 contracts, which is, that's a neutral ish number in my opinion. But the, it's the rate of change in that discussion. If you look at a chart, it looks like a, it's like straight up and almost straight down.
So it was a quick little, quick little visit to the long side and then back down. So the rate of change is interesting on that one.
[00:52:41] Speaker A: Okay. All right, well, Quinton, that's all I have for you today. I appreciate your, your update here, your perspective as we navigate this tariff world. And folks, you can get a hold of Quentin over there at jgl. We'll put some of his info in the show notes as well. And yeah, just thanks for, for joining me for this one.
[00:53:02] Speaker F: Thank you. Thanks so Much. Really appreciate it. Cheers, Ryan.
[00:53:08] Speaker A: All right, folks, let's keep rolling here. I've got maury micklitch with pro1 grow. Is it Pro Grow Egg or what's the official name of the company over there, Maury?
[00:53:19] Speaker G: Progro Agriculture is the official trademark name. Just to get around some legal stuff, but usually just say Pro Grow Agriculture. Just cut her down to Pro Grow. Good enough?
[00:53:32] Speaker A: Yeah, sounds good. So I've been asking everybody kind of the same questions, same couple, three questions here as we work through this tariff environment.
You work with farmers and you also farm as well, right?
[00:53:48] Speaker G: Yes, I do. Yep, yep. Me and my brother.
[00:53:50] Speaker A: Yeah, exactly. So you've got some perspective here. And I want to start off with, you know, what impacts or what impact have tariffs had on, on you and your farm or and on your, your client base, the farmers you work with, what impacts are you seeing in this environment?
[00:54:11] Speaker G: It's interesting, actually. The business itself has been a little insulated from the tariffs up to this point.
When I use the term fortunate and tariffs in the same sentence, that's quite the juxtaposition. But I mean, with the tariffs coming in halfway through, essentially the planning year, a lot of decisions are made in October, September for the upcoming grow year. So a lot of the stuff has been done for a couple months now. It's more so on the business side, it's going to be, if these tariffs are still on in July and August, then the picture becomes a lot more precarious as to what is 26 going to look like. And then on the farm side, same thing. I know me and my brother made some equipment purchases this year. If the tariffs occurred in October, those purchases likely don't happen because the market outlook is the grain we sold would have been marketedly less.
So like I said, when I say fortunate, people maybe would give me the side eye. But realistically, the tariffs coming in February, March, they were going to come.
So realistically, that is almost the best time for them to get put on, if they were going to get put on. I mean, it's, it's not ideal. It's just, yeah, give them to me in March rather than August or September, and then hopefully, once the election occurs, the new government will have a mandate to try and sort some of this stuff out.
[00:55:42] Speaker A: Yeah, let's cross our fingers for that one for sure. So the farmers you work with, plans are, are implemented or in motion in the fall.
So when you look at your client base of farmers, any big changes happening right now or is it kind of steady?
[00:56:02] Speaker G: Steady as it goes again, I'm going to use the word lucky in an unfortunate circumstance. The crops we had this year weren't the best. I mean they weren't the worst we've ever had, but they weren't the best by far. That left farmers with some with some higher soil fertility residual found in the fields. So some guys have been fortunate. They don't have to apply what they have in years past. They've been able, they're going to be able to kind of lean on that soil or residual bank. So that saves them some money. And then for the most part, for the guys who bought early and kind of avoided this pricing upscale throughout the season on fertilizer, I would say things haven't changed a whole ton. It's we need to scrounge every single bushel we can.
And so the guys who bought early and bought decent are going to. That mandate hasn't changed as we creep closer to the spring pick, spring pay guys, when you're looking at 115 bucks an acre and just fertilizer naturally there's likely going to be some adjustment on a call it $8 wheat and 1250 canola. I mean the risk proposition there is outrageous. Like you really gotta know what field's going to respond to that and that sort of thing. So I would say the closer you get to spring and the guys who still haven't bought it's going to go from business as usual to squeaking as many bushels out of a limited ton as we can the further we go. Yeah, I don't see any real way around that.
[00:57:40] Speaker A: All right, so you're helping farms on the fertility side manage the fertility side.
I gotta ask, what is your greatest concern here in this current environment that, that we're experiencing?
[00:57:55] Speaker G: I honestly, for me it's, it's if the American tariffs come in, China still has an ace up their sleeve on if they actually tariff canola seed.
[00:58:05] Speaker A: We don't want to talk about that.
[00:58:06] Speaker G: But yeah, it, where is the floor if these things come into implementation, how low is it going to go? And if it, if there's no bottom in sight, I'm going to feel it. And I'm pretty sure everyone across that the farm value chain is going to feel it. It's.
And then it's not even the floor also, it's when are we actually going to get some national recognition on what is occurring? Like this is going to be a multibillion dollar hit across the economy yet there hasn't been one word mentioned about any sort of action. So it's, it leaves the person sort of in limbo. Like essentially I'm trying to plan infrastructure and staffing for 2026. But yeah, like I, I cannot depend on. Okay, I might see some acre swings downward just for guys hunkering down and trying to keep it as thin as possible. It, the old person just has trouble planning right now. How do you plan when you really do not know what's going to occur?
[00:59:08] Speaker A: Now, I like to spin things in a positive way here. I want to talk about some positivity.
So for you, Maury, is there anything that stands out on what's going on here, but on a positive side?
[00:59:24] Speaker G: Yeah, realistically, like thin margins and high prices drive change.
You look over the last 20 years in Western Canada, how much has our farming practices like, yeah, no tail is obviously the biggest one. You go beyond no till what. What big change have we actually implemented across the farm? Like variable rate now, like it is forcing guys to look at things a little bit differently. It's. I can't blanket apply a 4,350 pound blend across a field. Like the economics are making it so tight that we have to look at things through a different lens of where am I getting return, where are my greatest risks? It's the prices just aren't there to be same as usual. Like, I know I do not farm good enough land to be. I'm just going to do what I did and it's going to work itself out. Like I cannot do that now. I have to watch where my risk is and I need to mitigate those areas of risk.
So ideally it's going to drive innovation.
At the same time you have to prove that innovation has value. So it's like I said, we're in a time now where this could be a big cycle of that next level of innovation across Western Canadian farms.
[01:00:48] Speaker A: That's been a theme that's come up here today throughout these conversations as well, is sharpening up on the financial side, maybe paying a lot more attention to that side on the farm.
When opportunity presents itself, not, not letting it pass, but also, you know, efficiencies, figuring out how to get to that next step or survive into that next year. I don't like using the word survive, but like, you know, I'll throw it in there and then even like channels, like channels for other, for our commodities or whatever to go to other markets and breaking down maybe some interprovincial trade barriers, things like that in the mix too. So we, in lean times, we get, we do a bit more thinking and A bit more problem solving, so.
All right, Mario, I appreciate you jumping on the podcast here, making your podcast debut this week, and, you know, with a little bit of luck, I hope to have you back on in a couple weeks to help me on some fertility stuff.
[01:01:54] Speaker G: So, yeah, thanks for having me. I appreciate, appreciate you having me on, and hopefully you gained a little bit of insight from my side of the world. But, yeah, thanks for having me.
[01:02:11] Speaker A: All right, folks, we're going to keep rolling here. We got Chuck Penner with Left Field Commodities joining the. With the Futures podcast here once again. And, you know, I put out the request to a bunch of people. I said, I want to do an episode with all sorts of folks just giving opinions on where we sit in this tariff world. And Chuck said, well, Ryan, I don't know if anyone's going to want to hear from me on this one. And I said, chuck, you are the voice of reason out there. You're calm, cool, and collected.
[01:02:40] Speaker H: Oh, we're all in trouble.
[01:02:42] Speaker A: Why wouldn't we get you on, right? So, Chuck, how's it going?
[01:02:45] Speaker H: We're in trouble if I'm the voice of reason.
It's going pretty well, actually. This has impacted us. We've gotten a lot busier because all the uncertainty, people are trying to find answers, and so not that we have any. You know, the one thing that I see in all of this is, like, from my perspective anyway, is, you know, you do all this stuff about acreage and you, you know, and this and that, production and demand or all of that kind of stuff. And, you know, and then you kind of go, yeah, but, you know, that can all change. So, like, don't, don't sweat all that stuff right now. It's. And it's actually acreage, and all of those kind of things are a minor component of the outlook.
[01:03:27] Speaker A: Now, I was going to say, I can't wait for your next acreage update, Chuck, because I think if you could do it every week here now into mid April would be perfect.
[01:03:36] Speaker H: Well, the last one we did was the first week of March. And then three days later, China drops these tariffs on us. It's kind of. Okay, well, never mind.
[01:03:47] Speaker A: Oh, and then I, yeah, I hear, you know, this week, you know, 6,000 acre farm, all the canola acres gone, replaced with flaxseed and flax and lentils. And then I hear stories about, you know, farms going out and not putting any fertilizer in, you know, plan not to put any fertilizer in. Like, hey, I'm not here to judge. Like, you got to do what you got to do. But there's a bold. Those are some bold decisions being made in time of crisis here. So. So, Chuck, you kind of answered, kind of answered it already. But impacts from tariffs, what have they had on your business? And you've said you're busier, which I get it. I'm feeling that as well.
So what's that look like? Just again, people looking for more info, looking for some, some knowledge, that calm, steady voice.
[01:04:44] Speaker H: Well, there is a little bit of that. I mean, there's people saying, well, what's, what's Donald Trump going to do? And, you know, that's not even, you know, I mean, they'll not even have a dartboard like you're. Because you're throwing them all over the room like it's, you don't know which way those darts are going to go.
[01:04:59] Speaker A: Yeah.
[01:04:59] Speaker H: You know, so you get a few of those kind of questions and they realize that you, you know, nobody knows what he's thinking or, or that sort of thing. And I mean, this China thing came completely out of left field, you know. And so, you know, when, when I was with you in Drumheller in December, you know, my point was, is like, trying to predict what's going next is not the best way to, like, you can't, you can't market your crop by trying to predict future events, because this year, you know, is showing that in spades. That, like, trying those things is just, it doesn't work.
So you get some of those kind of questions. People realize, you know, they're hoping you might have a little bit of inside information, but really, you know, really, you don't, you know, you try to watch what happens in the past a little bit. And, you know, but these are just unprecedented times, you know, to use a Covid expression.
[01:05:58] Speaker A: Yeah. You know, some industry vets are saying they haven't seen anything quite like this one before. And, you know, I suppose that that's true. But, you know, I think, Chuck, like, when I look at it, you know, if someone wants to get a bit more knowledge or information or perspective, and they've been waiting, like, this is a great time to do it, because it could influence a decision, you know, these big decisions that can be made under times of, of this stress and duress, you know, they, they, they often, in my experience, they don't work out that well.
[01:06:39] Speaker H: So I would have to say, like, when people. Probably the number one question that I've been getting is, well, what crop should I grow? Like, that's. And you've probably Mustard.
[01:06:48] Speaker A: Mustard.
[01:06:48] Speaker H: Right, right.
[01:06:49] Speaker A: Yeah.
[01:06:50] Speaker H: And so, like, when I, when people ask me that question, like, I'll talk about it in, you know, I can say, well, you know, flax is whatever, but if, if this one guy puts in his 6,000 acres of flax, well, there goes that market.
[01:07:03] Speaker A: Exactly.
[01:07:03] Speaker H: You know, that type of thing. But, but the way that I'll, I talk about that is like, I'll explain that my bias is very risk averse. I'm not a, I'm not a risk taker. I'm not. And so that informs my view of how to approach the markets. And so then when I talk about, well, what kind of crops are out there that are the least vulnerable to these Trade.
[01:07:25] Speaker G: Yes.
[01:07:26] Speaker H: Right.
[01:07:26] Speaker A: Yeah.
[01:07:27] Speaker H: And so that's the, that's the framework that I've been using. And so, you know, how much like, first for a crop like Oats, for example, you know, how, how vulnerable are we? How much do we rely on the US and we rely on them a lot. Of course, flip side, they rely on us a lot too. So there's some, some backing and forcing on that. But, but those kind of things. And so, you know, as much as spring wheat prices, you know, are really not all that encouraging, it's probably one of your lower risk crops.
[01:07:58] Speaker A: I called it my shining star last week, Chuck. And when you're calling wheat your shining star like that, you're in trouble.
[01:08:05] Speaker H: Unprecedented times, Ryan. Yeah.
[01:08:07] Speaker A: Yeah. Oh, man.
Yeah, oh, man. It's, it's, it's something that's for sure. Yeah.
Okay. So do you have.
I know you probably sleep well at night. The Winnipeg jets keep winning, so life's good. But what's your biggest concern right now with what we have in front of us? Is there something that stands out that just bothers you a little bit to say, oh, man, I really can't wait for this resolution or more on this. Is there something that stands out as a concern?
[01:08:39] Speaker H: Well, I guess there are. There are. You know, it would, it would be crop by crop, for one thing, but, you know, the, the, the flailing around in terms of the tariffs and, and all of that kind of stuff. There are other ones that can still drop yet. Like China is still saying, you know, we might put a tariff on canola seed yet.
[01:08:58] Speaker A: Yeah.
[01:08:59] Speaker H: Although we have heard that they're doing. What did I hear? That there's, they're doing a test cargo with Australian canola. So they might allow Australian canola in, which would then let them, you know, put a barrier up to Canadian canola. But then other Australian customers are fair game. Would become fair game for us and that sort of thing. So there's that, you know, there's. India can still do more damage, you know, all of those kind of things.
But, yeah, it's, you know, those are the kind of things that make me a little bit concerned. You know, here's one that I really don't. Would rather not talk about. But for things like, you know, for some of these, some of these production contracts and things like that, if these buyers, you know, and they didn't see this coming either, but if they.
[01:09:50] Speaker A: Oh, I know what you're going to say.
[01:09:52] Speaker H: What am I going to say, Ryan?
[01:09:53] Speaker A: Force majeure.
[01:09:56] Speaker H: Your French is better than mine. Yeah, but, yeah, that's a real concern.
And I know people have been calling their buyers and, you know, trying to, trying to figure this out. And I mean, the other thing that we're seeing too, though, is, you know, talking to somebody and it was about the flax market in particular and figuring out who's paying the tariffs. So. But it's getting down to, okay, they're making contracts now for fall delivery of flax, let's say. And so they're talking to their US Buyers. So they're working out those details on a contract by contract basis, you know, with terms in there for, you know, with tariffs and without tariffs and things like that. And some of those are being negotiated in a way that the US Buyer is picking up the cost of the tariff.
[01:10:42] Speaker A: Okay.
[01:10:43] Speaker H: So, you know, it's like one of the things that we've talked about, John and I have talked about a lot in this is thinking about a little bit in terms of 21, 22 when we had the big drought and then you had $11 oat prices, right? Yeah, well, those oat millers ate the cost of those $11 oats. Then they passed some of it on to consumers. But, but really, like the farmers, you know, the, the, you know, you know, it didn't, it didn't kill a whole bunch of demand.
And so, you know, there's, there's room in some, for some of these anyway, especially with some of these, the portion of the crop cost, you know, the wheat in a loaf of bread, whatever, is such a minuscule part of it, you know, you know, these, these food makers in, you know, will probably use the situation to their advantage. I'm sure they're all going to come out just fine and dandy out of the whole thing, but, you know, it may not all come back and, you know, hit us in the face here.
[01:11:39] Speaker A: You know, Time. Time helps, right? Time. When you get these big things that happen, these big negative headlines. If you give it time, markets will sort themselves out. And you may not be happy in the, in the six month window or one year window or 18 month window, whatever it is, but they sort themselves out and that's what they do. That's what markets do. So. Yeah, no, the force majeure thing is like, that's the one for me where I'm like, man, we got a good chunk of green peas on. We got a real good chunk of maple peas done.
I'm just hoping we don't get that call.
[01:12:18] Speaker H: And again, these buyers really, you know, it wasn't something that they could have planned for and they only got so many bins that they can store these things in and whatever.
[01:12:29] Speaker A: Yeah, no, exactly. Okay.
The one other thing that's come up a little bit here is just, you know, there's tariffs out there, but there's also, you know, policy and biofuel policy stuff that's going to be front and center next month.
Anything on your end there? You're just thinking like me, they forgot to write the word canola in it. And the next update we'll just have it in or.
[01:12:54] Speaker H: Yeah, yeah, I mean, that's another one. It's been eerily quiet from the Trump administration about any biofuels policy. Like they really haven't said anything and yet at the same time they've tried to, you know, anything that would have been Biden related, they've tried to, you know, to throw it to the curb kind of thing.
And so, you know, this 45Z. Oh, I guess it's in the US 45Z type of a thing. Right. You know, like we spent a lot of time and US People have spent a lot of time on, you know, thinking about that and all of those kind of things and the implications. And yet at the stroke of a pen, that could just be gone and they completely upend the biofuel sector. We did get a bit of a clue though that it's, you know, even aside from this tariff thing, the biofuels policy, the, the, the situation or whatever in the US Is shifting and it relates to, you know, less soy oil usage in biofuels. You know, we'll get more data as, you know, in the next. Because it just seems to be shifting now and then at the same time, you know, you know, if there is, if there is something interesting or maybe even positive coming out of this is that the market is really resilient so, for example, when we look at canola oil exports in January, like we've been exporting, 95% of it has been going to the US now for a while. And mostly for that biofuel thing. In January, we saw a shift. Some of it went to China, of course, not doing that anymore.
[01:14:29] Speaker A: But you know why that happened now?
[01:14:32] Speaker H: We shipped to Peru, we shipped to Malaysia, you know, not huge amounts, 15,000 tons or something like that. But that's not nothing either.
You know, 15,000 tons to each of those. I mean, shipping canola oil to Malaysia, when they're swimming in palm oil, the market is responding. And we ship more to Mexico as well, too. So the fact that we didn't ship to the US Suggests that, that biofuels in California especially is already shifting away from canola oil.
But the positive news is we're already finding, you know, they're still crushing at the same pace. They're just finding other homes for it. And so the markets are pretty resilient to that. We're working on a bit of a canola project right now with respect to these tariffs. And one of the things, we go back and we look at precedents and things like that. So in 20, no, 2009, when there was salmonella, that was before your time, Ryan, when there was salmonella restrictions on Canadian canola meal going down into the US So they shut down US shut down imports. Canola meal imports from I think about five or six plants. And so you see what happened to canola meal, Canadian canola meal exports during that time is suddenly, oh, now we're starting to ship to China, which we hadn't done. We're shipping to Thailand, we're shipping to Vietnam. So as we look at this, at first you go, holy smokes, we're going to get 25% less for all of our crop because that's the tariff. And then you start to think, well, okay, but the market trend respond this way and this way and this way. So, you know, if there is a, you know, still not great, it would be better if it was wasn't there. But the market will respond and find homes for things, the meal, the oil, the seed. We'll be able to find homes for it. Maybe we may need to do it at a bit of a discount, but even in some of those cases, not much of a discount, actually. So.
[01:16:32] Speaker A: So yeah, and if it is, it may be for short term, right? It may be for short term. So again, we respond by planting less canola. We don't. We haven't grown this crop yet, we don't know what we're going to get for production. Like, this stuff changes in a hurry, so. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right. Well, I had a question for you about positives. You already put one out there. Anything else positive to come out of this experience? I think that was a great one already. But is there anything else, you know.
[01:17:00] Speaker H: Here, I'll put a plug in for the. For the growers associations and things like that to do market development work, you know. You know, the work that's been done trying to promote canola meal, for example, in Asian markets, you know, we may not have seen, you know, big shifts in canola meal to countries other than the US Or China, but that work has already been done. And so we're not starting from ground zero with respect to market development. It's not like you need to spend months now trying to say, hey, we have this canola meal. Do you want to try it? And that sort of thing. So, you know, those kind of things, I think that, you know, people complain about, well, you're spending all this money doing market development, and you don't see the impact right away or the benefits, but you don't know what's going to be coming down the pike. And so, you know, here we are. And so some of these countries, you know, may have some interest in doing that. Did you know, for example, that Israel imports, I think it's about 200,000 tons of canola meal a year.
[01:18:10] Speaker A: Really?
[01:18:10] Speaker H: Really.
So I don't know if we, you know, I don't know if our relationship with Israel is great right now, but.
[01:18:19] Speaker A: I was going to say you're getting real, like, we talked politics today on this, on this episode, but now you're bringing that in here like, holy smokes, Chuck. I don't know if we can handle this.
Oh, man. All right, that's great.
Thanks a bunch for coming on this week as well and giving us some perspective. Last thing for you, wheat is your safer crop, we'll say. I think those are your words.
[01:18:41] Speaker H: Safe but boring.
[01:18:41] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. Safe and boring. Yellow peas are the ones. And maples scaring me right now. Do you have one that stands out for you as the high risk, as high risk or the scariest one out there?
[01:18:54] Speaker H: Yeah, you know, aside from those, I mean, I'm worried about the ones where, you know, we were dumping acreage into there now. And so we've already seen that in green lentils.
We're seeing those bids really come off and starting to see some buyers go, no bid on Green lentils. Okay, so that, that's a real warning signal, right? So.
[01:19:16] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah.
[01:19:17] Speaker H: So that, that could be one where we, you know, we overproduce for that market and then it's, you know, tougher to get rid of them.
[01:19:25] Speaker A: All right, well, thanks again, Chuck. Really appreciate it this week. Thanks a bunch for coming on. You bet.
I was, of course, talking earlier throughout the episode about the impacts here of tariffs. I, you know, I look at opportunity, the opportunity side as well.
And sometimes when you have, you know, these short term, or, or maybe it's quick events that happen, negative events, you know, we get a lot of, you know, farms that, that freeze out there, and our farm's no different. You know, you pause, right, and you pause and, and see how things.
Try to assess how things look and, and think big picture as well.
But honestly, folks, there are opportunities that present themselves here during these times.
And I'm not saying there's opportunity front and center today, but, you know, we know that there's not a lot of decisions happening across the prairies right now. And, you know, I would say if there's been an equipment transaction on your mind or you're looking at, you know, efficiencies on the farm, honestly, having a conversation with your John Deere store and your salespeople over at John Deere, you never know. You never know when it's the right time, when things line up for a good opportunity. So say, just don't forget about that.
Sometimes it happens when you're. When you least expect it.
Well, time for my own shameless plug here for the lunchbox Crew. And we are closing the books here, closing the group off midnight on March 31st. So that's the day. You got all day March 31st, to get in to the Lunchbox Crew. But after that, we are closing it for the year. Okay, we.
For me to provide what I want to provide to the crew, I need to close it off. And it doesn't mean that you can't get in the future. Like maybe if someone leaves or something like that, we'll consider letting another farm fill that spot. But that'll be basically it here after March 31st.
I'm not here to say that every farm in Western Canada, you know, should be a part of this, but I'm just really, really happy at where it's at. I know the needs of the group, and in order to fulfill those, this is an important step for me to close it off. So if you want to join the lunchbox crew by March 31st here, you can go to Ryantani CA to check it out there. You can email me ryanothefutures podcast CA. I'll help answer any questions. It is my version of crop marketing and it is different than what is currently out there in Western Canada. If you want to talk to a Lunchbox crew member again, the time is ticking here.
But yeah, we can certainly hook you up with somebody there as well. So again, love to work with with a few more farms here in Western Canada for 2025 and beyond and we will be closing it off here Monday, March 31st at midnight. Well, I feel this episode was packed with with great tips and perspectives. So there's no eating your veggies this week. There's no you know what's on my mind and crop marketing, it is all very much in there for this week. So again, thanks for hanging out here on episode 69 of the what the Futures podcast. Share this with a farming friend colleague.
You know we are I'm seeing some good things on my side from from your help. You're sharing this episode with other other folks or these episodes and certainly seeing it on on my end.
So which is a lot of fun. There's also some help in here as well for for folks there's resources in in some of these episodes, so don't discount that on on getting that information to folks in your farming community. It may help them as well if they're facing some tough times or some uncertainty. Okay. So thanks again folks again. It's a pleasure here and pleasure is all mine. So I'll just say here I'm out for episode 60 19.
