[00:00:00] Speaker A: Well, folks, first off, I just have to say that you're not alone. You're not alone in Western Canada when it comes to what's been going on this week. Crop marketing has been impossible. You've been feeling frozen after the latest announcements from China and the U.S. it's been tough, but we have things to focus on. We have stuff that we can accomplish here that's going to make you feel just a little bit better. With me this week, I've got John and Mark from AGI3. We're going to talk about agri enhanced. We're going to talk about private crop insurance, and we're going to talk about strategies that you can to help manage risk here in 2025. There are things you can focus on. There are little things that you can do. So let's get into it here. Episode 67 of the what the Futures Podcast.
Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures Podcast, where we break down complex market trends into simple, actionable advice. It's your quick guide to better farming decisions.
All right, folks, welcome in here to episode 67 of the what the Futures PodC, of course, recorded in the UPL studio each and every week. And I had the opportunity just weeks ago to give away 160 acres of battalion. Our winner was Corey. I was at the Unity Farmer event. UPL said, hey, go ahead, you know, why don't you give away some battalion? And I lowered Corey's cost of production on his farm. I shouldn't say me, I just was the facilitator. But UPL did by like a couple bucks an acre just by winning some product on his farm. So that was a lot of fun. So I've got John and Mark here right around the corner. It's been a week. All right, it's been one of those weeks. And, you know, when I, when I look at just quick things that we can do during times like this, the number one thing is not to panic. Not to panic, not to make big, bold decisions.
Rarely does it work out in that way, and I'm talking about big, bold crop marketing decisions. Rarely, rarely does it turn out to be a good one. We'll see on this one. Maybe it will be. But to go ahead and focus on a few other things, focus on some other things around the farm business. Maybe it's on the input side. There's a purchase there, something's on sale or a deal or something, some efficiencies you can look at on that side. You know, maybe it's doing some research and executing on some of the risk management offerings out there from our insurance. On the insurance side, I want to bring that into this week's episode. And then also just focusing on the some of the positives that are still out there, some of the markets that have not changed yet. And I say yet because this all kind of goes together, right? It's very rare for one to stand out on its own and be that shining star. Maybe after we figure out production. But until then, I wanted to talk about risk management. I wanted to talk about not taking those big swings, but yet also not being frozen to do the little things that are positive. And so let's start off here talking with Mark and John from AGI 3. Let's get into the nuts and bolts here of what Agai3 is all about, how they can be incorporated on your farm here in 2025 after we're done. Stick around because eating your veggies is on fire for this week. But I also have just a little bit of advice that I really want you to hear coming up after this segment. All right, so stick around for that one as well. Let's get into it with Mark and John from a GUY three.
All right, guys, you know, thanks for joining me here on episode 67 of the what the Futures podcast. Mark, is this your first time or have we had you on before? I know we've had John.
[00:03:52] Speaker B: This is, you know, this is my first.
[00:03:54] Speaker C: Happy to be here.
[00:03:55] Speaker A: Holy smokes. I think I got to start getting T shirts for everybody. I've been on the what the Futures podcast show, right? Something like that.
All right. Kids would be excited.
I got to start off. My phone is just, it's been on fire for many reasons the last week or so. But one thing that continues to pop up is when it comes to AG I3 and deadlines for insurance, is it too late to apply?
[00:04:21] Speaker C: I'll say almost. I say we're getting there, and I think it's important if, you know, if there's any interest, you better reach out asap. So it's going quick.
[00:04:31] Speaker A: Well, you guys were at the Crop Marketing Made Cool conference. If you look at the handbook, I had January. I had a little checklist of every month on what you should be doing. And I had January to start your conversations for private insurance. So I was there, guys. I was there in January getting, getting ahead of it.
[00:04:49] Speaker B: Yeah, we were. We were very, very busy in January. I mean, we've loaded close to 3 million acres now. And so, you know, crop plans, what if statements, you know, that's all we need And a list of LLDs and we can get price indications. So it's really quick to, to. To get what you need for to make those decisions.
[00:05:09] Speaker A: So an LLD is legal land description. In a what if scenario, you get that from who?
[00:05:15] Speaker B: So what IFs are through SCIC.
In Alberta, they're called crop estimates.
[00:05:21] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:05:22] Speaker B: Yeah, they're called a crop estimate document. And then Manitoba, their confirmation of insurance. So that just helps us, you know, get those conversations, get those pricings rather quickly. So if you have that ahead of time, then that really gets things moving pretty quickly.
[00:05:38] Speaker A: All right, sounds good. So we talked. You said Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta. Is that the area for 2025 that you guys are working in it. Is there anything outside of that, Ontario, US BC that would be included for 2025?
[00:05:54] Speaker B: Just. Just Western, Western Canada at this point. I mean, we're still in year three and you know, still trying to get the brand out there and awareness. And I would say, like John said, it's getting close to a sellout. So things are going really well.
[00:06:10] Speaker A: Well, I, I know that, you know, the last couple episodes it's been all tariff talk, and I know that I'll integrate some of that as well into, into episode 67 here. But I wanted to just get you guys on the show just to talk about, you know, some of the frequently asked questions that are out there. Just talk about some of the process, talk about, you know, what you guys are hearing out there. And you know, the fact that there's still some time here to get this sorted out is great. So I, I know we're running against deadlines here, but I wanted to get you guys on to cover some of this.
You talk to a lot of farmers across the prairies. You guys are putting in big days right now. What type of themes are, are popping up when you talk to growers here in, in the three provinces?
[00:06:58] Speaker C: Yeah, I would say, like, I mean, definitely tariffs are coming up in the conversations. It's something that, I mean, it kind of blows, blows our minds on what's going on. Right. It's hard to really comprehend but you know, for the most part or finding guys are like hoping a lot of this blows over. There's a lot of focus on, okay, what's in my control, what can I do around getting ready for seeding and you know, getting the equipment ready and you know, taking care of the books from last year, all that kind of stuff. So that's where guys heads are at. But we are also seeing, you know, folks doing a little bit more planning or Asking questions around the risk management side of things, you know, okay, if they're penciling out, looking at the new cost of production projections for this coming year, looking at the commodity prices, it's tight, right. Like, it's, it's not the same as the last few years. Right. So guys are looking at that and like, wow, I'm a bit concerned here.
Can anything be done? And that's what we're here to do, right? We're here to try and provide some help, some options for guys. Teach them how this, how, you know, this risk insurance that we have, how it works.
[00:08:07] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:08:08] Speaker C: And then they can make a decision. They, you know, it's up to them at the end of the day. Right.
[00:08:11] Speaker A: So, yeah, you know, our, our farm as well. You get your, your provincial off, you know, offering. I don't know what you guys call it, but you get the provincial side. And then, you know, we have a goal. I said it maybe last week or the week before, like, we're trying to generate $6 million here. Right. And so I get that initial number and there's a, there's a pretty wide gap there that I'm, that I'm concerned about. Is this where AI3 can come into the mix and close that gap for me just a little bit?
[00:08:46] Speaker C: Yeah. Like in the past and even today, there's a lot of, you know, traditional insurance has been quite good in Canada.
But you, you're right, like, we're seeing more and more. We're hearing this from guys all the time now that, hey, you know, I'm. I'm not fully satisfied with what's available out there based on my operations, my, you know, how I manage my, my operation. I need a bit more coverage on this crop or, you know, if I'm gonna go for it, put the groceries on my canola, can I get extra coverage there, things like that. Right. And, and yeah, there's not really many options out there. I mean, that's what we are focused on. That is our, our target is how do we help folks. We call it the working layer, you know, kind of the first loss in a crop. How do we help guys better manage that? You know, can we air up a higher risk insurance offering with better practices? Right, so that's exactly it, Ryan. We're just, we're targeting that, you know, that top up in insurance. And I mean, the appetite's been great. I mean, folks really like what we have here. And you know, we have a lot of engagement, our retention, like looking at the guys that bought last year.
[00:10:02] Speaker A: Yeah. Yep.
[00:10:03] Speaker C: Has been exceptional. I mean, folks have been happy to sign on again, which is obviously pretty key, I mean, in our industry and, you know, targeting, you know, progressive growers. If we have an 80% drop off rate, we're probably doing something wrong. Yeah, 100 we're doing, you know, you know, we're doing very good. Not 100%, that's pretty high bar, but it's well in the 90s, so. Sure, we're very happy with that.
[00:10:29] Speaker A: All right, so obviously in 2024, we had some issues with yield across the prairie, especially on those canola crops. How did the claim process go?
[00:10:41] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, early in July it was looking amazing and we figured it was. But that did change. So, yeah, we did have some claims that we had to deal with, but it was like, from my perspective, it was seamless. Like we really didn't have many issues. We had most of them cleaned up in November, early December. There might have been a couple that went a bit after that, but at the end of the day, I mean, they got paid. It was, we worked it out. So it's quite a seamless process. It's quite transparent. How many bushels do you have?
[00:11:13] Speaker A: Right.
[00:11:13] Speaker C: It's not that complicated. So yeah, it worked really well for us this past year.
[00:11:18] Speaker A: What about on the farmer side here? Does the farmer kind of influence the speed of that, of the process as well or.
[00:11:25] Speaker C: We could say that the sooner the farmer gets us the information. His, his yields. Yeah, what he's submitting to crop insurance for his yields. Yeah, the sooner we can turn around our side. So yeah, there is. The grower does have a big hand in it and we do encourage that information as, you know, as quickly as possible.
[00:11:44] Speaker A: Okay. Obviously we're always learning, you know, all of us all the time. Was there anything on the claims process that you kind of learned over the last year and are making any tweaks for 2025?
[00:11:56] Speaker C: Some minor things. I wouldn't say anything major, but yeah, like, you know, the expectation going forward is that there will be bin inspections for claims. Just because some of these bins now and, you know, vineyards are pretty massive. Right. So doesn't hurt to have a, you know, to be looking at that very closely. Right. So but in general, no, nothing major, like around the edges, maybe a little, few tweaks here and there, but that's about it.
[00:12:29] Speaker B: We'll be integrating some storage declaration into the platform, so trying to keep that seamless on our end as well for the grower.
[00:12:38] Speaker A: Okay, Mark, I'm going to come back to you in just a second, I got two more. But I'm going to come back to operation side a little bit more here. But before I do that, when you went back to your partners, I don't know if the reinsurer is the right term there, but when you went there and then came back and said, okay, we're doing this for 2025 again, let's rock and roll.
How, how are, how was their behaviors? Were they, were they consistent moving forward into 2025? Was there apprehension, concern or anything like that from that side? Or is it just like, yeah, you guys, this is great, let's keep this going. And, and here we go for 2025.
[00:13:15] Speaker C: Well, if you look at the, the year that we had, I mean, canola in the market, canola yields definitely took a hit, right?
[00:13:24] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:13:24] Speaker C: And I mean some cases you a.
[00:13:28] Speaker A: Big crop for western Canada.
[00:13:29] Speaker C: Right. So, you know, part of the, the calculus and all this is how are we doing relative to the market. Right. And based on our processes and, you know, leaning into technology and where we're going, everybody is very happy with how that is, how that is going. So although we might have had, you know, more than zero claims, which we're hoping in early July, there was definitely some claims.
[00:13:56] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:13:58] Speaker C: You know, folks are very happy with the process and even we, you know, we learned some things too. Right. So it's much better to learn these things early on.
[00:14:07] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:14:08] Speaker C: Then, you know, say three years from now and we're a lot bigger and go through something. So.
Yeah, it's, it's been a great learning experience, but it really hasn't taken away any of the opportunity, to be honest. Guys are very pumped about what we're doing here. So.
Yeah, no, it's, it's been great.
[00:14:28] Speaker A: Good, good. Okay, well, this next one, I, we talked a lot about yield throughout the first part of this recording. We're talking yield, yield, yield.
Is there anything to do with price here at all? From the price of a bushel of, of of your commodity? We've been talking yield. This price come into play at all a couple places.
[00:14:48] Speaker C: One is, I mean the prices are set right now we have prices for each province for each commodity.
So that's locked in. So guys, when they insure on their aggr enhance, that is the price that it's locked in for. It's not a market price per se.
[00:15:05] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:15:05] Speaker C: So that's on the agar enhanced side. We are releasing a new product this year. It's called Forward Protect. We're excited about that. And that's the New product where it's essentially grain contract insurance. And that allows guys if they want to take advantage of a rally. I know we're not rallying Canola today, that's for sure. No, who knows in a month from now where things are at in the weak market, we might see some movement there before the Canola. Right. So yeah, so if there is a rally, guys might be interested in getting some, you know, some contracts on the books. And if it, if it starts to go, that is the environment where you could get caught in a buyout. Right. Like if you don't have the crop and you have some pretty heavy contracts in place, you don't want to get caught. So that's what the insurance for protect is for. It allows the guy to be covered on their grain contracts if they don't have the production to fulfill their delivery requirements. So it works. We have it on canola and wheat this year and we cover up to 70% of their expected yield. So this is not like a 10 bushel act of God. This is, you know, up to 70% of expected yield and they can choose what contracts they want it on. So you know, if guys want more details on that, they can reach out to us and we'll be happy to go through with them. So.
[00:16:23] Speaker A: Yeah, so we're recording this the second week of March. Is it available today or what's the release date on that?
[00:16:30] Speaker C: Our pricing will be available any day now.
[00:16:32] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:16:33] Speaker C: I'm expecting it. So realistically probably in the next week or two.
[00:16:37] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:16:38] Speaker C: And then after that.
[00:16:40] Speaker A: And is this something where the farmer should reach out before they contract to make a plan with you? Or is this something that can be done retroactively like I sold?
[00:16:53] Speaker C: Yeah, good question. Ideally, reach out. If you may be interested, reach out to us just so they have the details. They do have a few days after they get a green contract to get the Ford protect. But it's better to kind of know how this works sooner rather than later. So.
[00:17:12] Speaker A: Yeah. All right. I want to go back to, I think I want to go back to aggro enhance. I want to talk about protecting yield. How, how does the process work? You know when you mark mentioned it earlier, how to get some of the steps, the steps you have to do to, to get done. But how am I generating my quote? Like what are you guys looking for in the background here?
[00:17:36] Speaker B: So what we need is we need to know what you're growing and where you're growing it. Everything is done in the application. Once everything is inputted into advisor AI Then we're able to go into pricing. Once everything is listed and ready to go, it's simple. A couple of clicks, you get into our pricing matrix. There's the different bands, the different coverages. As you're clicking on the bands and coverages, it's calculating your premium, it's adding your per acre. So it's. Once you have that first piece, the rest is pretty simple.
[00:18:13] Speaker A: And when you, when you come up with pricing, is it, are you looking at, okay, you're growing lentils, here's your price, you're growing canola, here's your price. Does it matter kind of where it's grown at all? Or is it just like. No, you're growing it in your neck of the woods. Here's the price for that.
[00:18:32] Speaker B: Yeah, so everything is priced on a quarter section level. So there might. That's where the power comes in. Everything is priced on the grid. So basically what the system does is we'll calculate your total of, of what borders you have into your. Into, into your farm. So it does calculate it. You can pick between an individual crop coverage or you can pick a whole farm option as well. So, okay. Yeah, so you can band, band each crop together, take some crops out or, or take a whole farm coverage.
[00:19:04] Speaker A: So if I'm, if I'm a heavy, whatever crop, let's say wheat crop, I'm a heavy wheat crop.
My provincial coverage is just a little bit shy on what I would like. My other coverage I'm comfortable with. Can I just say, you know what, you guys have seen my whole crop plan, but I just want to do the wheat.
[00:19:23] Speaker B: So that's all based on the underwriters. I mean, obviously you know that that quote can be submitted and then it just needs to be approved after that. But yes, that is a possibility.
[00:19:32] Speaker A: Yeah. Okay. Okay. So going back to process here, I'm going to the website and as a farmer, I'm entering my, my legal lands and my data. Like what's step one and what's my, what's my first 30 minutes look like of this process?
[00:19:49] Speaker B: Yeah, for sure. So it's a white glove service. So myself and the team, we have, we have a small team behind us that we're, that we're working to add in these croplands to the system for you. So essentially we have them in every different format. So we've seen them from handwritten to spreadsheets to using JD Operations or some other platform that we're able to pull shapefiles from. So essentially in any form. So it's a White Glove service, we add those crop plans in. If we have questions, obviously with the contact us on our website, we can reach out and say, hey, we have some questions on here. But generally guys, it's pretty quick. It's pretty easy. And so we just put it into the system and then we set up a meeting and say, okay, it's time to review. When's a good time to sit down? So it's, it's pretty quick.
[00:20:43] Speaker A: All right, so I'm, I'm going to the website, filling out my, some information, contact info, hitting the submit button and someone's contacting me within rather quickly.
[00:20:55] Speaker B: I mean, you know, within, within the, you know, 24, 36 hours. I mean we are a small team, but we've been pretty quick at getting back essentially. Yeah, we just looking for that crop plan with a list of legal land descriptions of where you're going to be seeing that and then we go from there. So rather quickly.
[00:21:12] Speaker A: Okay, now has there been any, you know, this is year, year three, I think you said. Has there been any updates in the background on, you know, partnerships for getting some of this information or technology or big technology company? Has there been any changes? You mentioned jdops. Anything else that's new in the background?
[00:21:33] Speaker B: Yeah, actually, lots. Lots, Ryan. So we're working with integration with the FCC's egg expert. So the big hope and dream here is that, you know, everyone has a crop plan and it's like, you know, how many times you have to enter a crop plan in a 2025 season. So we're really trying to keep that process super simple. So if you have an egg expert, we're going to be integrating with that, with those good people here in the future. And then also we're working with Leaf Ag Agriculture. So that's a company that we can pull data from your, your farm software platform. So you know, JD Ops and case and, and cloth. So we have grain cart ability. So as, you know, as harvest comes through, we're, we're certainly able to keep, you know, keep this simple. So yeah, yeah, we're very excited to be working with, with those groups.
[00:22:24] Speaker A: All right, guys, so now I've, I've received my, my quote. I, I've picked my options. Do you want a, you know, a briefcase of cash or how am I paying for this?
[00:22:35] Speaker B: Yeah, so there's, there's definitely some options out there. So, you know, we can do that. Yeah, we'll take the cash.
[00:22:42] Speaker A: Bitcoin preferably. But yeah.
[00:22:47] Speaker B: Yeah, so it's. So we do two payments. You can do check. So you can do first 50 installment is. Is due at, at the deadline and then the other half is due in July or you can finance it through fcc. So that's new for us for this year.
[00:23:03] Speaker A: Okay, so you can use FCC as, as part of this. Does that. Is that an extra couple steps then to take or how does that get integrated?
[00:23:11] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah. So yeah, once basically it's, you know, we just submit it in for them through FCC and then once the approval is done, then we can get our payment from there. So we're thinking it's going to be quite seamless.
[00:23:26] Speaker A: So. Yeah. Okay. So John, I know that you do a little bit of farming as well. You dabble out there. You know, when it comes to tariffs and all the stuff that we've had thrown at us the last number of days here, you know, is AGI 3, is there any tariff risk for AG I 3 right now or is it kind of. I don't want to say isolated from it, but is there anything that kind of pops up with all These tariffs.
[00:23:51] Speaker C: And AG I3I view it more as.
It's kind of bad to say, but it's kind of opportunity, to be honest.
If there's more risk in the environment and in the market, then risk management becomes more important. Right. So yeah, like for my farm, if, you know, if the pricing, if the top end of the pricing is taken off, then I'm more sensitive to the, to the yields. Right. So it becomes that much more important that I protect the yields if there's issues on the, on the price side. So sure. So yeah, I, I don't think hurts AG I3 to be honest. Which is, you know, bad to say. But yeah, again, we're here to try and give guys options. So yes, you know, it is a risky environment.
[00:24:41] Speaker A: Right. All right. Anything else behind the scenes, Anything else? You know, farmer trends in conversations like, I. Obviously it's. It's been a tough couple of weeks here, but been a lot of expansion across the prairies. Been a lot of excitement the last number of years on these growing farms. Has anything kind of changed out there or is it just a. Hey, we're having a rough couple of weeks, but the outlook is still quite strong, I think.
[00:25:13] Speaker C: You know, again, on the tariff side does create an environment where it is challenging on a, on a national level and global level from, you know, what, what do these programs look like? Are they going to be the same in the future, the, you know, the traditional program? So maybe they will, maybe they won't. I mean, I Don't know the answer to that, but I think it is prudent for folks to be looking at what their options are. Like, I came from a world where I was on the input side and I was, you know, selling seed and crop protection, stuff like that. And, you know, it. It made a lot of sense to have more than one supplier, to have a, you know, access to another channel if you need it. Right. Yeah, I feel like that's the environment right now. It's like the biggest risk on your farm is are you producing a crop? And if all that risk is just with, you know, maybe the traditional system, maybe you want to look at that and say, well, maybe it's worth putting my toe in the water over here and start building a relationship, because, you know, in a couple years, if things change, maybe I want to move a bunch of that business, you know, and it's hard to do that if you don't have a relationship and if we don't know the operation. Right. So really important that we get to know the producers and get to know how they work, what kind of systems they're working with so that Mark can get up to speed on those and, you know, help with the, you know, with the data management piece. So. Yeah, Yeah, I mean, that's what I would suggest.
[00:26:44] Speaker A: All right, sounds good.
Well, not all rosy, but makes sense, I should say, John. Makes sense.
All right, what else do I have for you guys today?
Is there anything that we're missing here? I've got some closing comments, but is there anything else that we didn't talk about yet?
[00:27:04] Speaker B: Yeah, I wanted to touch on the airm, like the. The people that. Behind the scenes that make the, you know, make the magic happen on our platform, like those are, you know, we are a Canadian company and, And. And the Canadian support group. And so when, you know, when there's a feature change or when there's a bug or when there's something that, you know, needs to be improved, you know, we have that direct arm right there, and it just happens. And they're just an absolute great crew to work with, and they're. They're behind the scenes building this thing.
[00:27:38] Speaker A: Out and located across the country. The great country of Canada.
[00:27:43] Speaker B: Yep. Yeah, we're all across the great country of Canada from the east coast to. To Vancouver and everywhere in between. So, yeah, we're quite proud of being.
[00:27:52] Speaker A: A Canadian company, especially these days. 100%. All right, so just one last thing. If folks want to get a hold of you, what is the best way informationguy3ai. Let's say it together, all three of us. Informationguy3ai. That is the email address. You can also head over to www.agi3.a AI. That's the website. Hit the contact page there and like Mark said, within about 24 hours to 24 to 36, they will be reaching back out to you. So, awesome, guys.
Very interesting times, tough times here right now, but it is nice to know that there are some other solutions out there for people to look at and to help manage that risk here in 2025. So thanks for taking the time. I really appreciate it.
[00:28:45] Speaker C: Thanks, Ryan.
[00:28:46] Speaker B: Thank you.
[00:28:50] Speaker A: So we've got so much going on here at the what the futures podcast. I want to turn your attention to our social media channels. All right, this is the second ask for this week, but we have the soil your shorts contest going on, which is basically a way to. To win yourself a pair of what the futures underwear. All right, we've all had those moments. We've all had those, you know, times when you've looked at the market, like on Sunday night for examp, and felt like, yeah, you had to go change your shorts. So, you know, we were having a little bit of fun with it. Go to our social media. All you have to do is, well, it's all on there, but, you know, tag a buddy, have some fun with it. Take a buddy on there and. And also just say, been there, you know, and you'll get. We're going to pick 20 winners here for some new underwear on March 31st. I also want to welcome. So Lunchbox Crew is open till March 31. So I want to welcome Riley to the crew. I want to welcome Cole to the crew. And I want to welcome back Matt and Lloyd and also want to welcome. There was one more gentleman here, Tim. There it is. Tim. Welcome to the Lunchbox Crew. I made the decision that March 31, that is our cutoff for 2025. That is it. You're in, you're not. March 31 is the cutoff. We're not adding any more farms after that. It's a balance of being able to provide what I want to provide to the Lunchbox Crew. And we've got it at a very. At a number that just kind of works right now. What I'll say is, unless someone drops off, we're not going to put anybody else in. You're in, you're in. If you're not, then if you want to be in, you got to make that decision here for March 31st. If you want someone on your team, helping through all these situations as they come in. You can hit me up@ryandan ca. You can go and check out the crew. You could talk to somebody that's in the crew already a farm. If you want a reference, you can have as many as you want. It's easy. If you have questions for me, all you have to do is hit reply to one of the emails I send out or email me at Ryan at what, The Futures podcast, ca or
[email protected] also works. All right, folks, just obviously for what's on my mind here for crop marketing for this week is the latest on what we have in front of us. And it's obviously a challenge out there.
I started thinking about this on Saturday morning, making kind of a list of the challenges facing the Canola market. I sit there and I sit here this week thinking, is this the darkest, the darkest hour, the darkest time? Is there a light at the end of the tunnel? I don't think it's there quite yet because March 20th has not happened yet. April 2nd, whatever that means, has not happened yet. Those dates can lead to more challenges for the canola market. Okay, so I don't know if our darkest time is ahead. I believe the Canola market is under trends, under a larger transformation. Right now. It all starts with policy in the US and canola being excluded from 45Z. We don't even know if that matters yet. If that is anything but. That is kind of step one, the first thing we need to watch. The second thing is US Tariffs. Tariffs, they come on and off. They're not good, but they will come on and off. It takes time, it's stressful, it hurts, but they will move around.
Policy, though, biofuel policy is just something that I view as a bit slower to react. So I'm a little bit concerned about our canola market and our canola industry right now. And there's people in way better positions than me with way more information and intel that I hope are feeling a lot better than I am right now and that prairie growers are feeling. But it's tough. It's tough out there. You know, I look back, you know, throughout my career and. And throughout moments like this, they have happened like this. It's been different and varying degrees. It happens. It's happened.
[00:33:01] Speaker C: Yeah.
[00:33:02] Speaker A: I think the most devastating one was still the. The flax one back in, like 2008 or 9, when we basically had full bins of flax, we couldn't move. Was it Trifid? Was that what that was called. Anyways, I'll have to think about that one a little bit more. I just encourage, you know, growers though out there. You don't have to go and take any big swings and I encourage you not to, to take any big swings right now. But if you are just finding profitability out there, you can go ahead and do a little something. You will feel better doing a little bit of something. Maybe there's markets that haven't fallen yet. This stuff all kind of, kind of goes together, right? Maybe there's markets that you can focus on in the meantime as well that are a little bit more haven't changed yet. To the downside that you can lock in some profit. I'd encourage you to do that. The most important thing though, I will say so. We have not grown this crop yet. I know that you guys are all going to do a bang up job and you're going to grow the biggest crop in all the bushels and that's fantastic.
But it's not in the bin yet. And so there's no guarantees yet and things can happen and change in a hurry. Now I don't want you to sit here either and say, well he said that it's not in the bin yet so let's not worry about it, let's get it in the bin. Not do anything. Not what I mean, it's a delicate balance because there's times where I've sat there and said I'm not doing anything. Prices are, they stink. I don't know what my crop is then my crops good and prices stink and they're even worse. So that does happen too. So it's a delicate balance of trying to figure this out, guys. So the crop's not in the bin, don't take big swings but yet go and pick away at profitability or thing, you know, prices that work for your farm. You may be feeling a little bit frozen, right? You may be sitting here feeling like I can't move, I can't do anything. That's a normal reaction to limit down moves in markets when things like this happen. So what you're gonna do is if you go, you're a feed barley grower or a lentil grower, a Durham grower and new crop prices are profitable. And you're, you're, you know, you make a sale, you're gonna get a little bit of that business confidence back that hey, I can do this. You're gonna get a little bit of that back and you're gonna feel a little bit better. Stick with it. I've got some good points here in eating your veggies as well. So hang out with us for the show. Yeah, I'll come at you next week with some bangers and something exciting here as well. But go ahead and just get a little unfrozen from where you're at today, all right? That's what's on my mind for crop marketing. All right, folks, for positive moments here in episode 67, I'm going to start off with those of you that were at the conference in Drumheller last December. We had everyone fill out postcards, all right? They had to put their name and address. We gathered them up. Then we redistributed those postcards and we had people fill out their three, like three key takeaways, three kind of positive things when it comes to their farm or the conference or decisions they've made. You know, trying to pass along some. Some positivity and some. Some education. Those hit the mailbox last Friday.
And so if you were at the conference in Drumheller, there's a good chance, listening to this podcast, you. You've received yours. I don't know if you want to share it back with us on social media or not, but I guess some interesting good timing on our side to get some positive, positive things out in the. In the prairies with the tough week that we've had. So that's my first positive moment of the week. The second one, I'm gonna go back to some family stuff, but we took the kids, we went to hockey hooky. Edmonton Oil Kings game and 11am on a Wednesday. Took the kids down there. And I learned things. I learned things about myself. I learned things about the youth of today. I learned how to dance the gritty, and I learned that Carly Ray, is it Carly Rae Jepsen. Call me, call me maybe, you know, I could definitely sing it, but I think it's called Call me maybe. That song. That song's. I didn't look it up. It's got to be 20 years old, right? Maybe even older. What a banger of a song. The kids of today were shouting that the top of their lungs singing away at hockey hooky in Edmonton here this week. So that was a good time. Finley's first hockey game. I said, buddy, what was your favorite part of the game? Of course, he's two years old. And he said, the combines on the ice, those combines are Zambonis. But I was with him. I'm like, you know what, buddy? Yes, those combines were fantastic. He loved the Zambonis and hey, John Deere, if you're listening. If you can figure out a John Deere Zamboni type thing to get out there, if you could make that happen, Finn would be overjoyed. Other thing for positive moments here, I realize, I know that it's tough out there and, you know, I just, I encourage people, you know, in positive moments to go and do that little thing, you know, reach out to people in your. In your farming communities. Maybe there's a small town, you know, playoff hockey game you guys can go to, or a curling event. I know those are kind of wrapping up.
Maybe it's a cup of coffee, but just kind of checking in on each other and, you know, making sure that everyone is feeling a bit of positivity and in the moment. You know, sometimes you just need that hour coffee and a chat with somebody that you haven't talked to for a while or someone reaches out kind of out of the blue. I want to stick that in positive moments because it can feel at times where, you know, the weight of the world's on your shoulders and these decisions are on your shoulders, but, you know, where we are all in this and kind of all in this together, facing this stuff together. So, you know, take. Take a moment to reach out to those. Someone in your community just to send over some, some positive vibes. And I think that would be really, really special.
All right, folks, so for eating your veggies for this week, of course, it's what I view as the right thing to do. Challenging right now. It's very challenging out there. Okay. Still got a couple things for you to focus up on. All right, so I'd say one of the, the bigger questions that I've. I've had come in here is if peas are at risk in this tariff war, you know, what am I going to grow? What could I grow instead? Or what should I grow instead? And so my number one for eating your veggies, my challenge to you is to create your. Don't go into it blind. Don't just say, oh, darn it, peas. I'm putting in lentils. You know, don't do that, but figure out the math. Do the math. Do as many crops that you can grow in your area. Figure out the math on all of those. Get some projections on price and figure out what those acres can turn into. What could that switch in margin actually be? And if you pick a crop to switch out to, if you decide that you're going to switch it out, don't just sit there and not do Anything, Switch it out and contract some stuff. You're switching it for a reason. Make sure you protect some margin. All right, I'm assuming you picked a crop with margin in it. Go ahead and lock some of that in. All right, lock some of that up. Power crop rankings. If you're doing the switch, lock some of that up. My second one for this week. You know, I would say that $600 canola futures is a very, very important level. I know that it can be difficult. It is hard to look at futures that were 660, 640, 620, and say, all right, today is the day that I'm going to do sale at 600. But 600, if we look, look at a longer term chart, look at the significance of that level. If we close below 600, you know, I would say on the, you know, look at the weekly and the monthly charts on those ones. But if we close below 600, that becomes our level of resistance. So if we go below that and we come back to it like, that acts as a very major level of resistance, in my opinion. And so I want you to strongly sit here looking at your new crop margins on Canola. And I really want you to ask yourself, you know, why am I not doing a little something here if I'm profitable? Why wouldn't I do a little something if I'm profitable? The one thing I've never figured out in my career is how to turn back the clock and how to go and turn back and say, oh, man, you know, next time it gets to 600, I'm going to do something about it. I've never figured that out. I've never been able to just flip the switch and be like, ah, it's going to be 600 again right away here. And we're, we're good, we're laughing. But you could do something about it while it's there. You can do something and there are strategies you can look at. There's talk to your local grain companies, talk to you, the folks that you, that work with you on the brokerage side, the licensed individuals about strategies. Because the interesting thing is you can fumble it around. On the upside, you can say, darn it, Ryan, I sold it at 600 and now it's turned bullish because China removed their tariffs. You can fumble it around. You can participate in upside. It may not be perfect, but you can do it. And you could turn it into something better. You can't do the opposite, though. You can't go back down and do the opposite. You can only do it while it's there. So my second one here is take a hard look. It's not going to feel good. It's not going to feel great. You're going to be upset about it. But if there's profit there, take a peek. Honestly, I would do a little something. I would. 600 is important.
Lastly, I was going to say that. Good. Time to review the numbers, but maybe wait on that one. Updating your cost of production. I don't think that's that fun here for eating your veggies. So with the bad week we've had, there are still areas of positivity out there.
Old crop, flax prices in the short term, new crop oats have climbed.
You're gonna say, what? Yeah, new crop, oat prices are climbing. Okay. They are better today than they were 60 days ago. Barley values, old crop and new crop. Barley values either up on old crop slightly and holding on new crop. For most of you, if you want to feel a little bit better about yourself and about your farm business, if you sat there and said, you know what? I'm growing a lot of feed barley, I didn't do anything yet, or malt or maybe flax or lentils. You know, I haven't done anything. But, man, you phone around and you find out that there's profitability out there. If you want to feel just a little bit better, go and market some of those crops. Go and do a little something over there. I'm not telling you to go gangbusters. The crop's not in the bin yet. But go and feel better about yourself and about your farm business by just doing a little something. A little barley, a little feed barley. If you're growing that, a little oats, if it's profitable, just doing a little something. Because as we've learned over the last number of weeks, there are no guarantees. And so even though it's there today, it may not be there tomorrow. And it has its own fundamentals and its own reasons, but this stuff all kind of goes together at some point. It's quite often I look back at my career and said, you know, when I sold that canola, I should have also sold my wheat and my soybeans and my corn. And it's often you look back, so don't forget that maybe it's one of those crowds that has not fallen off yet. And I promise you, you will feel a little bit better when you get something on the books. And you're frozen right now, so you get a little something on the books there, all right? Okay, that's it for eating your veggies here for episode 67. Well, folks, we spent. Well, we spent a fair amount of time this week in farm meetings. Big decisions, big decisions being made on the farm here right now.
Decisions, you know, short term decisions for the 25 growing season, long term decisions that likely impact, you know, our kids. Right? Big decisions.
And I will say, having the ability to review our numbers and review our plan using Harvest Profit gives us a little peace of mind as we go through the motions on some of these big decisions. You can check it out. Harvest Profit dot com. It's a financial software tool.
Well, for basically everybody right now as we go through these challenging times. So big week on the farm, big decisions being made, all being guided by knowing our numbers.
