Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Imagine waking up to discover your entire livelihood is suddenly worth 25% less overnight. For Canadian farmers, this uncertainty keeps repeating. Is it finally happening or do we have another 30 days? We've been teetering here back and forth, back and forth between what is happening with Canada, what is happening with US Tariffs, what is going on with the tension here and where do we stand? It's hard, it's hard to refresh your social media, it's hard to turn on the news and see exactly what the latest is. So I want to talk about that this week. I want to talk about how it's impacting Western Canadian farmers. What are they thinking about on a day to day, hour to hour, minute to minute basis? All right. This has been ongoing since January, even earlier. I suppose tariffs have been something that were floated, that idea was floated out back in 2024 that this could be happening. And we are now, we have as of recording a reprieve for automakers. We have an update tonight as I'm recording that some agriculture products will be carved out of the tariffs. What they are, I don't know. But joining me tonight I have Nathan Kuhn. Nathan is a reoccurring guest on the what Their Futures podcast and a fantastic public speaker. If you are looking for someone to speak at your next event, Nathan Kuhn can do a bang up job talking about his experiences with crop marketing, some of the skills and challenges he's faced. Of course, I'm going to get into it with Nathan here about what is going on, what is on his mind when it comes to tariffs and the ever changing environment and how he's working through that, how he's working through those scenarios. So let's get into it here. Episode 66 of the what the Futures podcast.
Hey folks, welcome to the what the Futures Podcast where we break down complex market trends into simple, actionable advice. It's your quick guide to better farming decisions.
All right, folks, welcome into episode 66 of the what the Futures Podcast. Of course, recorded in the UPL studio. I'm, I'm in. I'm in. Not renovations, but I'm trying to change things up in the background. It's a work in progress here. I'm getting there. I got to get the TV back up, but we're making some changes, cleaning things up here a little bit. Of course, upl, a sponsor of the SJHL playoffs which are right around the corner. We're in the month of March here. It's playoff hockey. Melfort Mustangs, top of the conference, top of the league. Sorry Are they going to repeat as champions here in 2025? Maybe I jinxed them. Side note, I once won the 5050 at a Melfort Mustangs hockey game. My biggest ever winnings, any, any winnings in my life was at that hockey game. I think I won like 1100 bucks or something crazy. So that was big money for university student. So I've got Nathan Kuhn here joining me. I want to get into with Nathan, Tariffs on everyone's minds, it's been a little bit stressful. We're going to talk about it here with Nathan reoccurring guest out of Unity, Saskatchewan when we're done. Stick around, though. I want to talk about crop marketing for you. So let's get Nathan's perspective. Let's see what's going on on his farm with all the tariff news and then stick around because I've got some crop marketing stuff for you as well. Let's get into it here with Nathan.
Tariffs are, are like two days old now, right? We're recording this on Wednesday, March 5th, Tuesday, tariff started. You farm. You've been on the show before. You farm in Saskatchewan just outside Unity, Saskatchewan.
Anything changed in your life over the last 48 hours on the farm side?
[00:03:48] Speaker B: I think probably more than anything as I've looked at my phone less because snip snap, snip snap. I mean, tariffs on, tariffs off. It was a little bit too much banter for my liking. So no, actually, if anything we got quieter. I mean, we'd had the discussion as a farm, you know, about these tariffs and what could happen. And truth is, none of us are overly concerned about the tariffs per se, but the duration is concerning. So, you know, I don't like to worry too much about today, but what's going to be happening come May 12th when I'm trying to market a canola for, for this upcoming.
[00:04:33] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. That's what makes it tricky. Right? You're. I said way back when the, when the tariffs were supposed to start, January 20th or 21st, I, you know, I said just park it for a week. Like, just park it. Don't look, don't do big decisions for at least a week and park it. But it's tough, right? It's tough when you see some of these markets. Well, I don't know what the heck's going on with the wheat market, to be honest. It's gone a little too far for my liking. But you know, it's tough when, when you see these markets pull them back. So. Yeah.
[00:05:10] Speaker B: Oh, and I absolutely agree, but I Mean, that's. The wheat market is actually just a fantastic example of this kind of volatility can create opportunity if you know what you're looking for. I mean, just today we were taking a look at our break even on wheat and what we need in order to be profitable on our farm. And we actually turned around and did a bunch of future strategies because we don't believe our cash price can necessarily make us a bunch of money. But in this downturn, if a guy could grab another 75 cents or a dollar, all of a sudden wheat is profitable again.
[00:05:49] Speaker A: Crop marketing is 24, 7, 365. And you know, you talk about the downturn in wheat, I was looking at the wheat charts here as well the last couple days.
Kansas City specifically, you know, just looking at where support is and the day of the year, you know, it's early March.
You know what's ahead of us here for a growing season.
Yeah, it, you're gonna have to, you might have to work pretty hard to get to break even. But looking at these scenarios, trying to add value when it makes sense, when it looks like it's got a chance to do that 20, 25. I, yeah, I like that. So can I ask, like, is that conversation you had with you and, and your dad and brother on the farm or is that something that you looped in your futures broker just. Or they reached out or how did you guys come to that discussion? Where did that come around?
[00:06:58] Speaker B: Well, I mean, a lot of it takes place on the farm. I mean, we, you know, we try to make sure we, we keep a really close eye on those break evens. And when you're, when you're doing your own personal crop rankings and you're laying them out and you're saying, why are we growing wheat? Because liking growing wheat is, is not a financial plan.
So we knew we had to do something. So then it was, it was a team effort too to, to go to the brokerage and make sure that, you know, my guy knew kind of what our goals were. We were like, hey, we want to be able to add. Our goal is A$25. If we can add A$25 on top, we can turn this into something profitable. So yeah, it was a real communication piece and continues to be. Obviously it hasn't got there yet, but letting them know what our goal was. And then, you know, we, the interesting part about our farm is we all have different risk tolerances and ways that we like to operate. So by knowing kind of, you know, all three of us pretty intimately and how we want to do things and how we want to execute. He kind of had a plan in the back of his head. So I mean, specifically when, when we reach those new lows in case it was like, well, now it's time to maybe put one of these plans into action and get things going.
[00:08:21] Speaker A: Yeah. Start building towards that buck 25. Right. The time is now. Exactly.
[00:08:27] Speaker B: And I think for 2025 too, what I've had to kind of shift my mentality on is it's, it's about base hits. I'm not saying I'm gonna try to make a $25 on the, on the very first move here, but yeah, we need to make, you know, just make good decisions and basically base hit our way to that $25. I don't think it's gonna come in all in one shot this year anyway.
[00:08:50] Speaker A: Yeah, I have while the goal on the farm basically to, to sell, you know, $6 million worth of crop some way somehow. Right. Six million bucks of. We got to generate six million bucks and you know, it's. We're going to grow X amount of bushels. We're going to have whatever average price on that can insure $6 million right now.
Been trying, Nathan, trying to get $6 million worth of insurance coverage. Can't get that figured out.
But, you know, just getting to that goal, setting that goal, that's the number that's on the whiteboard and looking at all sorts of ways to, to generate that. So. But we also have to put on here. It's a great day when you're out in the field, the bushels are coming in, you're harvesting wheat. It is. It's a good harvest day. Right. Like I, Susan Stroud didn't believe me a couple of weeks ago, but it's a fun day when the carts flow rolling and bags are out and combines are just cruising. Right. It's a good day.
[00:09:56] Speaker B: Oh, a good day. And that, that mid August there when everything's just, just starting to come in and that greens disappear and you get that little bit of a wind over the field, I mean, yeah, it's. There's something nostalgic about growing wheat. And even if you're standing there looking at it saying, you're not going to make me any money, but boy, is this fun.
Like being a cattle farmer for the last decade, up until the last few years.
[00:10:24] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, yeah. For the love of it.
So have you guys done any, you know, any serious discussions about changing your crop plan at all? Is any. Have any acres come in or out of the conversation with the, you know, with the latest on tariffs, what are you guys thinking on the, on the acre side?
[00:10:46] Speaker B: Well, not so much on the tariff side, but I mean, just basically coming into fall and going into our winter planning, we, we definitely diversified a lot more, as I'm sure many farms across western Canada did. We, we changed our rotation up to include more specialty crops to try to basically make that bottom line look a little better because. Yeah, to do the all a third, a third, a third thing. If you're like us growing hard red and yellow peas, it was just, it, it just wasn't penciling out. So the tariff things shouldn't change our acres drastically.
But again, it comes down to a duration thing too, is that you don't.
[00:11:31] Speaker A: Have to say the crop. Is that one crop that you were thinking about doing a little bit of. Is that still slated, that brand new one?
[00:11:40] Speaker B: Yeah, that brand new one still slated. Will, we've already mentally prepared for taking our yellow mustard crop and putting in the bins until our children are graduated or.
[00:11:53] Speaker A: All right.
[00:11:54] Speaker B: Able to haul it to town on their own.
[00:11:57] Speaker A: There you go. All right. And I know your kids are young, so, yeah, there'll be a few birthdays there. All right. You got a great group of young producers, active producers in the unity area.
I know you're not big on coffee shop, you know, sitting in the coffee shop, but I know, you know, you're playing rec hockey at the rink, seeing the farmers, seeing your buddies every week. You're, you know, seeing everyone around town. You're messaging any talk amongst the group with regards to tariffs. Is everyone just kind of doing the same as you or just kind of putting the phone away for now, or is the group been a little bit more tense in those conversations?
[00:12:39] Speaker B: Oh, no, it was it. Yeah, it's been pretty intense, actually. Last night's rec hockey game at, of course, at the start the tariffs were on and then there was an announcement at halftime that they were back off again. And by the time we got off the ice, they were back on again. And yeah, you got two ranchers on either side of the room arguing whether this is going to affect them or not going to affect them and asking me an opinion. And I said, I can't possibly read fast enough to form an opinion on these tariffs these days.
[00:13:12] Speaker A: Yeah, you know, I got a call from, you know, I talked to a lot of people this week, but I got a call from, you know, even just a few, like, industry people.
And, you know, it's, it's interesting to hear the tone. It's interesting to. To where the conversations go. Yeah, you know, it's. It's a little bit more stressful out there for a lot of folks. And I just out of our control and changes, you know, as we blink, it changes again. So.
Yeah, just one of those things. But I noticed a little more tension in the conversations and I don't want to say worry, but it did come in into. Creep into a few combos as well. So.
[00:13:58] Speaker B: Well, and definitely. And I mean, this, these tariff thing is a very large thing to worry about it. I mean, it's relatively out of my control. So I like to mentally prepare for it like that. But I mean, we've had these conversations too, of change. While sometimes very difficult, we're heavily reliant on a neighbor to the south that takes all this canola oil. That was not the case 10 years ago. I mean, if you really want to take a look at trade flows, you know, there could be something good come out of this and maybe we make some new trade partners and diversify and become better because of it. I mean, yeah, maybe that's just an optimist looking at it, but I would hope that something good comes out of it one day.
[00:14:44] Speaker A: Well, markets, they do sort themselves out. And it doesn't mean that there isn't any pain. While that happens quite often. There is pain.
But it's interesting, right, because you go and you're supposed to create domestic demand, you're supposed to process in your own country. And we're like doing all the right things, jobs, you know, across the prairies, value add good for the economy, processing this at home, relying less on seed exports to China. And then, and then we have this, right? So it's like, oh, we're trying to do the right things, but stuff like this does. Does happen from time to time. I want to ask as well, with all the uncertainty, is there anything.
We got the 25 crop ahead of us shortly, but are you guys looking towards changing any strategies up for 2026?
[00:15:43] Speaker B: You know, again, we're starting that planning phase, especially my brother and I, and we are right now historically undersold from what we usually are. So as far as the 2026 plan goes is I think once we see these seasonals take over, you know, kind of see that winter wheat come out of dormancy and see that May June rally happen even in the oil seeds, I. I think we'll be forward contracting more into 2026 just to get some certainty because it's been too many years of Tightness and if we can secure those long range profits, I think we're going to be looking at it. Yeah. And otherwise I, it, it comes down to this duration thing. I mean we're, we're Saskatchewan farmers. We like growing wheat and canola and I mean we'll diversify if we have to, but if we can get back to what we know, we'd sure like to.
[00:16:39] Speaker A: Yeah, I, I mentioned that the other yesterday the lunchbox grew about marketing. You know, three crop years we got to tidy up a little, you know what's left of 24. We got to be active in 25 and then not to sleep on 26. Cause I think Kansas wheat, when I was looking at it for CPS grower or a low protein CP plus grower across the Prairies like there was about a 60 cent carry there until the fall of 2026 and we're four weeks away, six weeks away, maybe less from being able to contract some of that. So all of a sudden you get a rally here of 50 cents or whatever, you start looking at some of those numbers for next year and yeah, like profitability is there. Go grab some of that certainty for sure. So cool.
[00:17:31] Speaker B: Well you know what, especially as somebody in a unique position as you, what, what's your concerns? What's your, your big header for your farms 2025 growing.
[00:17:43] Speaker A: So I, I, I kind of, I just kind of go back to like the discipline, the discipline on making sales when profits when break even and profits kind of when they present themselves. So when those opportunities are there, figure out how to be disciplined and then figure out how to continue to participate. If I, I am that, you know, bullish in nature for whatever reason, go lock down the profit or the break even scenario and then take a little less risk and go and play in, in what could be, you know, a more bullish market. But just make sure not to lose sight of, of that discipline. The like I like the other day, like I, I'll be honest, like I, I was one of the, my little guy woke up at three in the morning and by the time I got him settled down it was like 3:30. And you know, I was like oh, I'll just have a sip of water, go to the bathroom real quick and check Twitter. Well you know I shouldn't have, definitely shouldn't have checked Twitter because I'm again trying to find the latest update. I'm like all right, well let's scroll here a bit and try to find this thing. But it's a little bit nerve wracking and just to park that. To park that. Not to worry about that because it's out of my control.
And even in years where you get this crap that comes down, there's still a market that's going to rally for whatever reason and of course, go lower. But they. It doesn't just go down forever. There are recovery rallies, there are reasons weather rallies. There's fundamental things that happen. There's technical signals out there. And just to remember that, remember that doesn't go down forever. And, and not to stress too much about it. So that might be a simple way to look at it. But, yeah, I would say, you know, our conversation from earlier about the wheat market, you know, I'm staring down, you know, diesel prices here at, you know, 92 cents tonight. You know, these were a buck 18, a buck 20 not long ago. I'm not saying that saving 25 cents a liter on diesel is going to save your profitability, but, you know, just keeping an eye on. On what diesel prices are doing and making sure that we do a smart buy on diesel, making sure that we do a smart buy on fertilizer, whenever that is, later this spring or summer for next year, just, you know, focusing on those decisions, little decisions that will hopefully add up to something meaningful at the end of the year.
[00:20:50] Speaker B: You know, I think it's so great that you brought that up because I had a conversation with, we'll call a younger farmer than I am not to date myself, but I had commented that there's. There's some ways to maybe get fuel a little cheaper, and it's. It's perhaps time to wait. And he said, well, you know, on my farm, if I save 10 cents a liter on fuel, you know, it doesn't really affect me that much. And. And I had to have the conversation with him of, you're right. I mean, the savings are relatively. They're not gonna. They're not gonna pay off your half ton for you. But the fact is, when you start to look for those opportunities, no matter how small, you begin to look for them in everything that you're doing. And 10 of those small opportunities now may amount to something that is substantial to you and your farm. So don't give up those pennies. I mean, it's not about being cheap. It's just about making the right decision at the right time and taking your chance when you have the opportunity.
[00:21:50] Speaker A: Yeah, 100%. And that is the environment we're in right now. And, you know, at the end of the year, when you look at everything and you Start to put some of these decisions together.
Review some of the decisions you've made. And the farms aren't small, you know, anymore. There's millions of dollars at stake. To have an impact again, I need to generate 6 million bucks. We'll say 6 million bucks in. In 25. Well, if I can buy some fuel a little cheaper, buy some fertilizer a little bit cheaper, whatever it is, maybe that number turns into 5.7 next year or something. Right. And just becomes a little bit easier to hit, so.
All right, Nathan, anything else for me?
[00:22:37] Speaker B: Oh, man, no. Just our. I guess, if you want to look into your crystal ball. Is this the technical turnaround we were anticipating in Canola? And are we. Are we headed to that 709 level come next six weeks here?
[00:22:51] Speaker A: I. I need a. I need another. At least one more day here. I like the turnaround on wheat. I like the turnaround on soybeans. You think that that would all be related to Canola?
We're up. No, we're up six bucks. Like, I'll tell you a funny story, man. Like, tariffs hit on Tuesday, right? Tariffs hit on Tuesday. Like, my. This is how. How crazy and how criminal crop marketing is. I am panicking to get out of my Canola puts, right? It is. It is panic city that I've got these Canola puts that I bought as a safety hedge earlier, before the first tariffs. I paid a significant premium for them. And I am sitting there saying, man, if you could go down, like, another 10 bucks, like, I'm gonna get out of this, pay my commission and be even money and live to set a floor at a higher value at some point this spring. I'm sitting there like, I gotta get out of these darn puts. I gotta get out of these puts. Why aren't we going closer to limit down? Like, that's how messed up crop marketing is sometimes, Nathan, right? And so as I'm sitting there, I'm like, you can only announce 25% tariffs once.
We did it, and now this market is just not going as far down as I thought it might, and I got to get out of these puts at, like, a small loss. Now that's what I have to do, because I know I'm going to establish a floor at a higher value. So.
Yeah, but we're up six bucks. Yeah. If we. If we have another good close here on. By the time we get to Thursday, by the time people listen to this podcast, maybe the. Maybe the. The tide has turned here for us.
[00:24:45] Speaker B: And yeah, further to that, I feel Your pain? Because I jumped on the initial tariff scares and got short and lost a little bit. And then this time, no, the tariffs are actually on. And I'm sitting here saying, I'm just watching, I'm just a spectator at this point. I'm saying, well, we gotta limit down. We have to limit down. Right?
Right.
[00:25:06] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:25:07] Speaker B: And no, we do not. That's because it's all muted the second time around. Nobody believes anything the guy says anymore.
[00:25:16] Speaker A: Yeah. And that was a positive sign. Like I talked to, you know, a couple farms again, trying to reduce the stress level a little bit. But I'm like, we're not like we're saying that our canola oil to the US is going to be tariff to 25% and we are not limit down.
[00:25:34] Speaker B: Like something we're pretty comfortable that we're short or that we do not have enough product anyways.
[00:25:40] Speaker A: Yeah, it's. So, yeah. So anyways, the one thing that going back, couple questions here, but the one thing I am watching. So I read an article today from my buddies down at Marketplace Commodities and they, they just talk about truck, you know, truck traffic. Nobody's moving anything south. No, nothing's coming north. And so he said, like there's no tariff being collected because nothing is, is moving. Right. So you have that truck traffic that stopped and that doesn't seem like much now, but it adds up over days and weeks and heaven forbid, months.
So what I'm watching, like you remember a couple years ago when all the canola oil tanks were full and people were gonna deliver, couldn't deliver their canola contracts. Everything was kind of backed up. It was rail movement was poor and the cars were all full sitting on the track. The tanks were all full.
And if you're listening to this folks, I'm not here to say that this is what's going to happen. I'm just saying that that is what I'm listening for now from, you know, from our crushers and our industry. Like what where is. Because the oil, it has to move. We only have so much storage. So to me, that is the next thing that could be negative is if we see that. But I haven't heard anything about it yet. You might be more dialed in than I am with some of these folks, but I haven't heard anything like that yet. That's what I'm watching for, though.
[00:27:10] Speaker B: Well, and it's interesting that you say that because I remember this very well too. And then all of a sudden this storage problem was no longer relevant. It was no, we have lots of room. We have lots of space, lots of cars, lots of everything. Well, I mean, like you said, it's. It's a jar, and eventually the jar fills up. So. Duration. Yeah, tariff, but duration.
[00:27:37] Speaker A: I heard wheat basis levels were making a pretty good move, a pretty good gain across the prairies. I don't know. I don't know if you have any wheat left to sell, but do you notice anything on wheat basis getting better or pretty quiet?
[00:27:50] Speaker B: No, actually, yeah, wheat basis has improved. And I mean, we've especially seen where the. The futures were maybe going down. And as that Canadian dollar kind of trickled down as well, we saw that basis improved, and it's kept our prices relatively stable right now. I think the export is still there, and, I mean, our local elevators are getting it in and shipping it out as fast as they can. So it's a. It's a really positive sign so far. I mean, I'd obviously like the futures to do a little more heavy lifting for us because. Yeah, basis right now is strong and they want to move it fast.
[00:28:26] Speaker A: Yeah, no, that's. Yeah. Good stuff. All right, dude. Well, I appreciate your time tonight. Thanks for having a drink with me as we hashed out some of the impacts of tariffs here in the early days. And, yeah, thanks for being candid and appreciate you coming on.
[00:28:46] Speaker B: Well, thanks so much for the invite and yeah, take care out west.
[00:28:50] Speaker A: You're a reoccurring guest on the what the Futures podcast. Nathan Kuhn, everybody. Unity Saskatchewan. Reward Saskatchewan. Like, right in the middle of the two, basically, somewhere in there. But thanks for coming on, man. And yeah, I'll sure I'll catch you one day before seething.
[00:29:08] Speaker B: Thanks for having me.
[00:29:13] Speaker A: All right, well, that was absolutely fantastic with Nathan. I always enjoy the honest, candid conversation with Nathan and with all of our guests here at what the Futures. It's not a widely scripted show, and it's nice to. To let things kind of flow in these interesting times. So I want to talk a little bit here about crop marketing. Covered it already with Nathan a little bit, but, you know, it. Crop marketing, what people think crop marketing is, you know, is selling grain. You know, what was crop marketing? Well, it's selling grain, when in reality, crop marketing is. Is actually understanding your costs, setting targets and sticking to them. Managing risk with your grain contracts, asking questions and seeking advice. Learning about market trends and timing, taking emotions out of decisions, reviewing your strategy, regularly celebrating small wins, staying patient when the market shifts. Going to put that one in bold for you. Protecting your farm's financial future, building Confidence with every decision and remembering you can't go broke when you're selling at a profit. Crop marketing right now, the one thought that, you know creeps into many minds is, ah, I didn't do, I didn't do enough. Didn't do enough last month, I didn't do enough last week or didn't do enough in the last rally. And I get it, I understand, I understand that that creeps in now. It's important though, for you to just remember that these markets, even in turbulent times like we're seeing, they don't go down forever.
And I don't want you to just put in your mind that, hey, when the price gets back to X, whatever that number was, 875 for wheat or 15 for canola, when it get back, when it gets back to X, I'm gonna sell. Don't, don't do that. It's okay to acknowledge that markets go up and down and that there's going to be a rally of some sort driven by some type of reason, some type of technical signal. There'll be something. Don't put that in your mind, though, on that set number. You gotta erase your mind a little bit and treat this next section as brand spanking new. You know, maybe it gets back to some of those old levels, but don't use those as your guidelines. In a market recovery. It could be, it could be a false recovery. It could be a week of rallying for whatever reason and then going down and making some new lows. Going down and making, you know, fresh contract lows. That, that has happened before. It could happen again. Identifying what the market is doing and making your decision based on what is happening in front of you, if that makes sense. You're following along.
I hear it. I've heard it, oh, my whole career. Oh, man. Ryan, I didn't sell it. I didn't sell it at $9. But when it gets back there, I'm gonna do it. And then it does get back there. Think they sell at 9? Usually they don't. Usually you don't. So treat the next rally, whatever it is, as its own thing. And if it's going to give you a week of upside and you need to generate cash and you got to get the work done, you're going to sell the stuff. Don't just sit here and say, well, I know I got to do some of this. I know I need money, but I'm waiting for 875. All right? I know it's hard to do. I know it's hard to do. But it's, it's what you have to do. Start fresh, don't look at old numbers and say, when it gets there, I'm going to do something. There's always opportunity, folks. There's always opportunity. It's not always about crop marketing. You know, I, I've been hyper aware of, of fuel and what diesel prices are doing. You know, as I'm recording, we're under 93 cents a liter on, well, we'll call it what a super B load. I don't know how many liters that is. But a big order, right? A bulk order. You know, we have offers creeping around a dollar for fall, you know, keeping an eye on making a good buying decision. That's what I'm looking at there because I, you know, did I sell enough in the rally? Well, if you believe that the market's never going to get back to where we were, then the answer is no, I didn't sell enough. But you know, we did something. But I can't think, think. I can't focus on the what if or I can't focus on turning back the clock. What I can focus on is the next good decision. All right, so from a crop marketing perspective, what's on my mind here this week, again, I said it before, just trying to park some of the emotions here, park the phone a little bit with these tariffs. When some of this news hits, it's harsh days. But as I said earlier in 2025, it wouldn't bother me at all if you just put that phone in the drawer and looked at it a week later to see what markets were doing because they're, they're, they are showing us something here. You know, with as big of the. As me and Nathan talked about it, but as, as big as the news has been, things aren't that bad right now. We should have been limit down in Canola if it was going to be that bad. And it still could get that bad. But it's not, hasn't been that bad yet. All right, so just patience here as you work through it. You have an entire growing season ahead of you.
And one of the things that I learned, it was an expensive education. But until the crop is made, the growing. The crop is and will always be like it is the driving force on what prices are going to do. Even when you think everything is so bearish and prices are so bad, all of a sudden someone somewhere doesn't grow the crop or doesn't grow the crop they thought they could, this thing turns around in a hurry.
And I learned that lesson a few times when all was lost.
Prices were never going to recover. And then all of a sudden production was in question and prices recovered. You got to grow the stuff, you got to grow a bunch of it. And if you don't, prices are going to recover. That's what happens. So don't forget that we have an entire growing season ahead of us. And I'm going to leave it at that for what's on my mind in crop marketing. So I was at the farm the other day in the. The parts room, you know. Yeah, yeah. You know, when I was a kid, like we had. We had a wall, you know, of. Of parts and we had a few filters and stuff, but it was basically like a shelf on the wall.
Now the farm has an entire room. And I know some of your service trucks. I know they're pretty incredible with what you guys have for supply. I've heard of service trailers, what you guys are doing out there, which is really inspiring. Oil filters, air filters, hoses, you name it. Oil, oil galore. It's incredible what you need to have on the farm though, right now as you prepare for spring, this time of year, heading into your John Deere dealer feels a little bit like a Costco run. Stocking up before the season really kicks off.
And I know it's a great time to stock up on all that good stuff so that you are not losing time during that busy spring run.
Not everyone operates like this. Some farms have a full time parts runner, AKA my dad is a parts runner on a lot of days grabbing what's needed.
So where do you guys fall? Are you guys getting stocked up for the spring season?
No better time than to head over to your John Deere dealership and stock the cupboards for 2025. All right. Positive moments of the week. I. I got a couple here. I. Well, I'll say. Well, I've got my. I've got my e. I've got my Eva hat on for recording. Recording on March 5th. March 3rd was Eva's sixth birthday. And this hat is.
It's from the Edmonton prospects, which is a baseball team that is not around anymore. They have a different name, different town and all that stuff. But I celebrated my first father's day at an Edmonton prospects game. And. And it was a day where.
It was a tough day because eva was born March 3, passed away and my wife had bought me tickets for this baseball game. And so when I saw this hat at the game, I had to buy it instantly. I thought it was definitely a Sign for me. And so my E hat, I have a fresh one. This one's got sweat on it. I do have a fresh one wrapped in plastic that will not be taken out at all. It's in storage for safekeeping. But Eva's birthday this week we celebrate as best we can. We spent a lot of time explaining to a four year old, you know, why Eva was not physically with us. And you know, I'm not going to lie. We struggle, we struggle with, with how to celebrate and we struggle with what to do and how to make it special. But we did go out for dinner, we took the kids out for ice cream. We, we did things, we decorated the house up and we did things for, for a six year old as best we could. And you know, it, it's important to do that. It's important to acknowledge those that we've lost in, in our lives. And you know, I'm not saying that we did it, that we're perfect on how we do it, but we do what's right for us. And yeah, I didn't expect to be doing, trying to do as much explaining as we, we had to, but you know, Eva's a part of us and, and having those conversations is, is a good thing for our family and keeps your memory alive. So for that I'm thankful. And it certainly is a positive for this week.
Other than that, I would say that the warm weather is certainly nice after a frigid February. It's nice to get out in the yard and do planning and just like everybody else, you get a little bit of spring fever and get some excitement for the drawing season ahead of us. So it was good to get those, get those feelings again. And then my last one, it's only the first week of March, but we, we have 30 nights of camping booked for this summer already. So we, we did it last year. We did 30 nights last year and they are on the schedule again for this year. So big camping family here in, in 2025 once again. So those, those are my positive moments for the week. All right folks, I'm always, I'm always asking here to go and share the podcast. You know, subscribe to YouTube, give us a like ratings, share it with your friends and neighbors. So thank you for doing that. But for this week I want you to turn your attention to our social media pages. Instagram, Facebook, X. We are running a soil. Oh, what did Yvonne call it? I gotta look it up now. But it's an opportunity to win some what the futures Crop Marketing made hot underwear. We're giving away 20 pairs of underwear. All you have to do is go and comment on our post. You can't miss it. It's the bright underwear and basically crop marketing, it's not always glamorous, gets a little stressful. But let's keep you fresh with some what the futures underwear. All right. And go check that out on social media comment. Tag a buddy in there as well. We're going to pick 20 winners on March 31st. Let's go have some fun with that. All right, so eating your veggies here for episode 66, I got an easy one for you. If you're going to indulge this weekend in a spirit, indulge in a Canadian spirit. All right. I know I've got bourbon on the back. I've got some, I got a bunch of scotch in there as well. So I've got, you know, it's not all American back there, but yeah, the Gibsons will get a little more love from, from our household here during these times.
Second one for eating your veggies, I would say your 2026 plan.
I know you don't want to think about it right now because you're like, Ryan, I have old crop in the bins. I'm focusing on 25.
But 2026, your contracting abilities are right around the corner for both canola and your wheat markets. Do not forget that over the next four to eight weeks when you get your rallies, when you sell some 2025 crop. Just think for a minute, should I be selling something in 2026? How would I do that? Who could I do that with? What is that price?
You might surprise yourself at what you find and it might be some of the highest prices you get of the year. We'll see. Time will tell. But don't forget about that third thing for this week for eating your veggies again. I talked about it multiple times on the show, but fuel, diesel prices, diesel is on the decline. There's opportunity here. We're trading in the low 90s. I'm not saying this is the day to buy, but make your fuel partner on your farm. Make them your daily phone call right now because these charts, look at a crude oil chart.
Look at, I want to say New York harbor, but it's like you usld, USD, something like that. Take a look at some of these charts that impact your diesel prices. They're getting towards some support here.
Might be a signal any day, any week here to buy a little bit of fuel. Keep an eye on that. There's opportunity in my opinion right in front of us here on Fuel. All right, so domestic spirits, number one, if you're indulging this weekend, number two, focus on three crop years. Put 20, 26 in your mind right now. And then last one there, take a peek at diesel and might be a good buy opportunity here around the corner. So let's leave it at that. For eating your veggies. Well, thanks again everyone for hanging out for episode 66 of the what the Futures podcast. Appreciate it. If you have any questions, comments, hey, send me an email. Send me a message. I'm here to respond. If you have any crop marketing stuff you want to talk about, if you want to learn more about the Lunchbox crew, if you want to learn about how I work with farms here across the prairies, reach out. It's just ryan@whatthefuturespodcast ca or head over to the website ryandan ca. 2025 is a big year for you. 2026 going to be even bigger. Thanks for tuning in. That's it for me. Me and my Gibsons. Cheers. I'm out.
