Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: All right, folks, we have a lot of stuff going on in the world today and a lot of stuff going on from a crop marketing perspective. We start 2025. If you just went year to date, it looks pretty good in 2025. We've started on the right foot here, going the right way, the right direction when it comes to crop markets. But there's a lot going on in the world. There's policy, there's tariffs, there's crazy headlines. The reason I bring all this up is because my guest today joins me to talk about another tool in the toolbox. One tool that continues to be underutilized, and that's brokerage accounts. Opening up the possibilities when you have that in your toolbox. That's what I want to talk about this week. Quinton and I from JGL Capital, getting into it. Come join me here. Episode 65, let's get into It.
Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures Podcast, where we break down complex market trends into simple, actionable advice. It's your quick guide to better farming decisions.
So let's, let's get into episode 65 here. Of course, recorded in the UPL studio each and every week. I know the deadline it has passed, right? I'm recording this February 19th. The deadline to enter the Grower Rewards program is days behind us now, but I chatted with my buddy Matt at Uplift. I'm just gonna say, I hope it's all right, Matt, but if you reach out to your UPL representative, I have a really good feeling that they might sneak in yet into Grow a Reward. So if it's been on your mind, been on your radar, you didn't get a chance to do it. Reach out to UPL and they will. You even go to our website.
[00:01:38] Speaker B: What?
[00:01:39] Speaker A: The Futures Podcast. Ca. You can find your UPL rep as you dig through our website as well. Reach out to them, reach out to your retail. Get going on Grower Rewards. Alrighty. Okay, let's. I'm recording this on Wednesday. I need to harness, I need to capture. I need to figure out how to give Canada all the strength and all the momentum here to win this darn hockey game. By the time you listen to this, we will have known who is the winner of the Four Nations Cup. Quinton and I, we're going to pick our winner. Who's going to score the winning goal? He's got his, I've got mine. Of course, I'm an Oilers fan, so that'll give you a hint. So for this week, we're going to get to Quinton, in just a second. Just a second. As of recording, the wheat market is pulled back here. I haven't done a good job of this. This is like my new thing this week because I was chatting with the farmer on Monday in our meeting that we were having, and they said, you know what, Ryan? You're a little bit more. You're a little bit more optimistic. You sounded a little bit more optimistic in. In some of the content that you're putting out. And of course, this farm, they get the Lunchbox Crew episodes and so that, you know, they're getting that in hopefully on the Friday podcast as well. You're. You're. You're catching that too. But I'm. I'm a recovering. I'm on the road to recovery of being a big bear in this market. I just want to say that out loud. This is not a celebration to come out and say, you know, even though we have here, to my right, my new studio, I don't. You can't quite see the bull there. I was trying to. Studio's been. Anyway, the bull, the new bull. We're gonna have some fun with that in, In a minute. But I've got a new bull to help me.
Help me portray this moment, you know, and I'm not bullish yet, though. I'm not bullish yet, but I am setting that up for future episodes. But I'm recovering from being a bear. I'm recovering from telling farmers, any farmer I talk to in the spring of 2022 and beyond, all the way to. I don't know when. I haven't figured out the date yet, but sometime this winter. But telling farmers, sell, sell, sell, sell. The fall of 22, sell. Spring of 23, sell. The summer of 23, sell, sell, sell, sell. Bearish, sell. It took a corn market to do some amazing things for me to work out of this. It took getting out of the winter doldrums here, the zombie wheat market of the last three months, four months. It took some of that to get out of this. I'm in recovery and I am optimistic in some higher pricing moving into later winter in the spring. I made a wheat recommendation a week ago. By the time you listen to this, it was last Friday. I did make a wheat recommendation. I sold a little bit old crap wheat. All right. I did. Had too much left to sell. Wanted to reward this rally. Got some of the highest prices we've seen in a long time. It's great. It's great. I'm excited.
So there's that. There's still, the discipline side of selling, as I record, the wheat market is down right now. I'm not making a recommendation today to sell, but I'm. Keep an eye on this. Keep an eye on this for new crop. And then, of course, canola making its way to 660 here, which is exciting, but I just. I wanted to let you guys know, I am a recovering bear. We'll see what that means later on in 2025. Maybe it's neutral. Maybe the markets are just neutral. We got a whole production cycle ahead of us in the Northern hemisphere. We'll see what that brings. Yeah, I'm excited. Okay, let's bring in Quinton with JGL Capital. We have a great conversation here in regards to brokerage accounts. Why would farmers consider them? Why haven't they considered them already? And some of the things that they're watching there over at jgl.
Quentin, thanks for joining me here once again on the what the Futures podcast. This has got to be, what, appearance number three or four, I'm thinking.
[00:05:32] Speaker B: Yeah, I think it's three. I think it's three.
[00:05:34] Speaker A: There you go.
[00:05:34] Speaker B: Excited to be back.
[00:05:36] Speaker A: We went quiet background, fancy background, but still with the fancy background. So it's definitely. That's three.
All right, dude, I appreciate you coming on. I gotta ask you. I gotta ask you a big question right off the hop here. So it's 2025.
We see the landscape in front of us here with all this stuff going on.
If farmers haven't.
Haven't at this time here in 2025, haven't opened up a brokerage account of any type, haven't gone down this path, you know, what reason do they have to do it here in 2025?
[00:06:12] Speaker B: Well, one thing I think we're seeing right now, we're seeing this little rally in grains happening. Wheat, canola. And what else are we seeing? We're seeing basis that's kind of pull back. This is a perfect, perfect time, perfect setup and reasoning of why someone should consider it. Do you want to go and if you want to go and make some. Some trades or do some hedging, get rid of some grain, take off some wheat exposure, take off some canola exposure, but you're not loving that basis anymore.
You kind of want to have a futures account for it.
[00:06:43] Speaker A: Yeah, good point.
[00:06:44] Speaker B: That's right now, like this environment, I've already. I've been having these conversations all week of guys talking about what they should do with some of these sales, should they be taking advantage of it? That's a big conversation right now. With me and my, my clients and you know, I highlighted to them and they already know it and they appreciate it and they're like, yeah, this is a good.
I'm not loving this space so I'm just going to do it over here.
[00:07:06] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, okay. I definitely agree to that because when I look at some of the basis being offered there in the short term, you have basis getting worse here on old crop, but even new crop, it's just to me it doesn't represent the true value for the fall. And so, yeah, a nice way to get something done and maybe allow that, to allow that to improve over time here. We'll see. Right? Anything can happen.
All right, so I saw you. Last time I saw you was in December down in Drumheller at the Crop Marketing Made Cool conference. You're with JGL Capital and I'm just wondering over the last, I guess it's been a couple months now, but have you guys made any tweaks to, to how you guys are operating and working with farmers across the prairies?
[00:08:04] Speaker B: Yeah. So over the last handful of months, this was even prior to the new year change over there, we started doing a lot more weekly or regular, you know, whatever they've got, whatever a client is interested in doing. Regular meetings where we get to sit down, not always be trying to do trades and push trades, but almost like educational. Talk about the markets, talk about different strategies. What is a caller, what is a cold call spread. Get to know them and their farm and their situation more. So we've been doing that and we've just continued on through 2025 doing that. We do the regular emails. We added a feature there where we're doing the regular charts and we have some way to do our charts up so they're a little more colorful and things like that, but they all mean something. They're not just colors for the sake of colors. So we put some of that out and they contain. Those charts contain information and I've had lots of good feedback on it. People like seeing that. Yeah. So yeah, well, that's. Those are the few things we've continued to do that are additive. I've been working in the background on a few features for our website, but I don't have a coding background. So I've been really muscling through it with the help of some things. So hopefully I'm hoping within the next month we'll have some new features on our website that help with estimating some interest costs and things like that and talking about the added the benefits or you know, whether the market's presenting itself with an opportunity to change over from cash to paper.
[00:09:27] Speaker A: Awesome. Well, I appreciate it. I'm getting those emails, I see those charts when they're coming out and I, I get some of that, some of that context. So I certainly appreciate that. When it goes back to the one on one meetings, one of the themes that came out of the conference was about going and, you know, getting down to just the basics. We had a couple people approach us after and say, hey, you know, we conference was great, information was great, but the one thing was just starting, you know, just a bare bones basics of what a call option is or what a put option is. Is that something that, that when they, when a grower, you know, partners with JGL Capital and with yourself, is that something that you're, you're comfortable doing with them to get them started?
[00:10:16] Speaker B: Oh, absolutely. Yeah. No, for sure. I'll go through, we'll provide definitions, provide examples. If you can do sort of a, yeah, we'll, we'll have a look at a call and we can look at it again at the next meeting a week from now and see what happens. See what it did. The Canola did this and this is what the option did. Talk about the Delta and some of these other terms. Try not to use jargon too much, but yeah, just how those things respond to each other. Absolutely. Lots of education definitely in the beginning when folks, you know, we're a firm that likes to, likes to educate, likes to have an opinion as well.
If you do come and open an account JGL or work with any of us, you're definitely going to get a little more hands on experience. So yeah, okay, cool.
[00:11:03] Speaker A: I did send, send your counterpart reg a message and say, and just told them like, hey man, well we're going to be in Moose Jaw here later in 2025.
What do you guys, what do you think of running this back and maybe obviously making tweaks to presentation themes to go with the year? But what do you think? And he said, absolutely, keep us in the loop. We are, we're definitely interested. So, so that's nice. We'll be, be a Moose here later this year. Yeah.
So Quinton, we, we're looking at these markets, you know, you mentioned it off the hop here just a, a little bit.
We've got lots of fear out there. We've got tariffs, we've got potential changes to policy. And on the biofuel side, as a, as the farmers out there, they're getting lots of, you know, lots of pressure. Seems to be a lot of pressure from the folks buying the grains out there. Lots of uncertainty moving forward in 2025. You know what's been your focus here the last number of days or weeks? Is there anything that's kind of stood out on a market that you've been paying close attention to?
[00:12:17] Speaker B: The one thing we've been paying a fair amount of attention to is the commitment of traders data. There's been this theme across most of the grains. Actually started with corn and it was very pronounced in corn. Going from this non commercial net short to a very large net long in corn and started seeing it in beans. Started slowly coming off in canola and now it's kind of working its way into wheat. And the last canola cot data was, was huge. Like 51,000 contracts purchased back from the non commercials. That's the largest in history, which is interesting. Didn't show up necessarily with the percentage gain there clearly met with farmer selling or some sort of, you know, short position from the commercials. But I think the same thing's happening in wheat. So that's been the main focus that we've had over the last just start of 2025. We've actually been maybe pushing, we've been pushing the long side a little more encouraging waiting or encouraging adding exposure back and we're still on that theme.
The higher we get up here, the more I get warm to something maybe like a collar or something like that still I think we kind of have a little bit more to go. But yeah, at this point now it feels, feels good. There's opportunity there.
[00:13:32] Speaker A: Well, it was nice to see canola and wheat as well. It's nice to see this markets move into gain ground and positive territory here against the backdrop of all this, of all this negativity. But the wheat one I think caught a lot of people, you know, by, by surprise. You know, the, the prices across the prairies climbing to levels we haven't seen in quite some time. And I think it seems I've caught a few by surprise. So I know the wheat market, we're recording this on Wednesday, must be February 19th I think today. You know, as we look at this wheat market, a little pullback today, in your opinion, any cause for concern on this little pullback? It's fresh, just happened but anything kind of stand out.
[00:14:20] Speaker B: Nothing jumped out at me to be honest, like a piece of news or anything. I think it's just market gyrations. I had a really big day Friday so I am, I'm not necessarily running for the hills yet, but These are great opportunities. I'm happy that farmers are seeing a chance here to make some old crop sales, make some new crop sales and get a little bit of price. You know, stuff put on the books at least. But, you know, I'm not, not yet. Running for the hills. Could be wrong. We'll see in the next. The future will tell me whether I'm right or wrong. But yeah, I think there might be a little bit more.
[00:14:54] Speaker A: Well, I. So here I've, you know, for the lunchbox career, I write updates regularly and so here's a few titles I had from the last week. Pullbacks can be a healthy market signal. That was one thing I wrot. Then I wrote a couple days ago, when did I stop being a market bear? Question mark? Because I'm a recovering bear. I've been bearish since 2022, the spring of 2022. And then a farmer the other day said, ryan, you're sounding a little bit more optimistic here. Positive. And I was like, oh, yeah, I'm a recovering bear right now. I'm actually trying to find reasons for neutral or higher markets. So I'm with you on the wheat rally, Quinton, is what I'm trying to say here. I'm with you. I think time will tell. Of course, folks always talk to your local experts, but I like the timing. I like how things are setting up here in this wheat market.
[00:15:46] Speaker B: I agree.
[00:15:47] Speaker A: I'm doing a presentation this week in Unity, and I'm not good at market outlooks. I look back at old presentations and I kind of, kind of chuckle because some of the stuff I say is, like, some stuff's fine, but some stuff's just way out to lunch. By the time, by the time it.
Yeah, you look back, it's just way out to lunch. But one of my themes that I have here for 2025 is, is currency and the Canadian dollar. Like, I'm not, I'm not bullish the Canadian dollar, per se. I think with tariffs and all this stuff, like, it's, it's hard for the Canadian dollar to rally.
But I also think that farmers do not have a lot of, they haven't done a lot of risk management around currency and the Canadian dollar or the US Dollar, you know, for that matter. How about for you guys? Are you guys looking at currencies on a regular basis? Is there something there that, that piques your. Your attention?
[00:16:48] Speaker B: Yeah. So for currencies, there's kind of two things I look at. One is just the general dollar index. I'm kind of just paying Attention to. I do find generally it's hard for it to be rising and wheat to be rising at the same exact time.
[00:17:01] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:17:01] Speaker B: So kind of watching the broad. More of the broader themes of that. And as we see wheat rally, we've seen the dollar have a little bit of the dollar index, the Dixie, a little bit of a correction. So that all makes sense to me. So there's that relationship that I'm looking at a little bit, and then there's the relationship of the Canadian dollar to basically basis. It's very influential. It's a big part of pricing basis for Canadian farmers. So, yeah, if you can isolate that stuff out, take advantage of, you know, basically go long, some cat or something if it sees a. You see a really big dip or. Yeah, if you're selling some grain into the US Some fellas do that, some stuff, whether it's oats or what. But yeah, taking a look at it, for sure. I don't. I'm not the biggest currency expert in the world, that's for sure. But yeah, it's an important factor and it should be looked at. And yeah, we pay attention to it for sure.
[00:17:52] Speaker A: All right. Okay. What else do I have for you here?
I think we got most of my questions answered.
I know you guys look at a lot of different things. Is there anything that we haven't talked about yet today that kind of jumps out?
[00:18:09] Speaker B: Oh, well, I'm definitely focused mainly on the grains. So if you wanted to talk about metals, there's some interesting things going on over in that world.
You know, coffee's got some interesting stuff going on, but, yeah, focused on the grains. I think we kind of covered it off. The corn has a very, very large position.
I think that's gonna hold and continue. They typically defend those positions quite well. Long. They defend them for quite long. So, yeah, if you were trying to look at that and see when could corn stumble, I would have to wait till, you know, you get some better acres, you know, better idea of the acres numbers. That's going to be like the big next fundamental sort of thing coming into play, I think. And people are already putting out their estimates and stuff. So I think they're going to defend that for a while. And I think corn will be king for a little while. And I hope it does continue because to me, it's been helpful in the. In the wheat rally as well, you know. Yeah, 100% main cause, but it's definitely been helpful.
[00:19:08] Speaker A: Yeah, Yeah, I.
We'll have acres coming out. I think that outlook, USDA outlook is later this month and then, and then we'll get, we'll get farmer intentions in, in a while here. But, you know, the growing season is right in front of us. Right.
And so for me can get a little bit wacky as you get into spring. Weather forecasts, all that stuff, crop condition ratings. We're a little ways from, from all that coming out yet, but that's all in front of us and all reasons for markets to move. And so I feel like what we've seen so far in January and February has been a nice little.
I don't want to call it a bonus, but just kind of a nice little rally to get us started, just get us back in the game after months of quiet and then we'll see what comes here. I'm a little bit excited. That's why I'm leaning, you know, a recovering bear in this, in this market world. And.
Yeah, we'll see what comes.
[00:20:11] Speaker B: Yeah, no, it's been a great start. I like it. One other comment I wanted to make, I was, I barely even touched into this, but I just saw that SCIC numbers were out. Saskatchewan Crop Insurance.
[00:20:20] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:20:21] Speaker B: Yeah, So I think it was.
[00:20:22] Speaker A: Sure.
[00:20:23] Speaker B: I think the number 13. Yeah. So that's. I can pull a better look at those. But.
And see what's good and what's bad and how everything else is sort of comparing to itself.
[00:20:33] Speaker A: But I, I was, I haven't done any analysis yet either, but I, I saw this was AFSC numbers. So the Alberta ones, I saw them come across the desk this morning. And canola at 1304.
You know, I was a little bit disappointed in, in that number.
Hard red spring wheat at 762, cps right. At 7:35. Like, I get it, obviously, but you know, we're looking at reductions of depending on, on the crop, but could be from the 20, 24 numbers. 10% reduction, 15%. 20%. You know, canola here's down 11% from last year on the coverage they offered last spring. You got some big dips in some of the specialty crops here as well. So, you know, it's insurance sites never, in my opinion is never that. Never that fun. But to see those numbers come out, lower coverage, rumors of higher premiums, just frustrating. So we'll see. We'll see what comes out of that.
[00:21:39] Speaker B: Funny enough too, like looking at what you're citing there, kind of what I briefly looked at, like this is 30 minutes before I hopped on here. I was wondering earlier today why November was up. No new crop was up. Whatever it was seven bucks. And the. The old crop was like 5ish at the time. And I was like, that's strange. I wonder why that is doing that. And I might have my answer right here in this conversation.
Right, so maybe a little bit of pullback on acres.
[00:22:08] Speaker A: Yeah. And. And so right now there's an acre pullback happening against high. And we're going off into the weeds here a little bit. But, you know, we had fed strong, exports strong crash. That one of the smallest crops here. What, third smallest in the last decade or something like that this last year for Canola. Like, we can work. We can go into the summer on. On fumes. Like, inventory can be quite tight. And so, you know, I get it. Like, when I was looking at the numbers on our farm, you know, for Canola to buy another acre on our farm, the 650 futures number just. Just wasn't quite doing it, you know, 700. 700 would. Would get me a bit more excited. So we'll see. We'll see where November Canola goes. But I. Canola has done in the past a good job of trying to buy in some acres late, and I wouldn't be surprised if it attempts to do that again here over the next month or so. But we'll see.
[00:23:03] Speaker B: Yeah, no, I don't. I agree with that.
[00:23:06] Speaker A: All right, Quentin, I appreciate you jumping on the what, the Futures podcast here once again. How can farmers listening to the show this week, how can they get a hold of you?
[00:23:16] Speaker B: You can give me a shout or send me an email. You can find my contact on the website, phone number 306-717-8428. But yeah, you can find me online and just reach out email. I'll. I'll be responsive fairly quickly. So, yeah.
[00:23:29] Speaker A: And that website is JGL.
JGL Capital or just JGL CA.
[00:23:36] Speaker B: JGLCapital CA. You're right. Yeah. We got the home, the JGL CA. But, yeah, look us up on JGLCapital CA. Should clarify that for sure. Yeah.
[00:23:44] Speaker A: All right. Awesome, man. Thanks for coming on here once again. And by the time this episode goes out, it will. The game will be over. But Canada US Thursday night, I don't want you to pick who's winning because we already know who's going to win this game, but who's going to score the winning goal for Canada?
[00:24:03] Speaker B: Well, it would be really special to me if Crosby did it. I remember 2010, watching the Golden Goal. It was amazing. I would love to see it again.
[00:24:12] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:24:13] Speaker B: And it would be. It would reward him well for his, you know, Pretty decent career here. But I would also love to see McDavid do it because that would be wicked and that would. That would prop him up. You know, he's already a special player in the game, so.
[00:24:25] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, I'm an oily fan, so I'm going to go with McDavid as well. But I remember the golden goal in 2010. I was at this bar on the west end of edmonton. We have booked a table.
We booked a table for six people. This place was sold out and we ended up being 10 people. So we were kind of standing around this tables absolutely packed. And I just remember that puck going in and that place just erupting. So, yeah, Yeah. I won't be in the same venue on Thursday, unfortunately, But still looking forward to a good game, so it's gonna be awesome, too. Exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Exactly. All right. Thanks, Quinn.
[00:25:06] Speaker B: Good to see you. Cheers.
[00:25:11] Speaker A: All right, it's now time for positive moments of the week here. And what the futures I've got. I always have a couple for you, right? So. All right, I'll start. My mama, my grandmother's turning 80 years old. It's her 80th birthday party this weekend. So we are going to be. If you go through the town of dormy and you just listen, you will hear the polka music blasting from the golden age club, the senior center, as we celebrate Mamel's 80th birthday party this weekend. That's my first positive moment. Second one, we're doing a little potty training at the house. My wife said, hey, Ryan, let's put a date on the calendar to do potty trading. Let's just put it on there and we'll start. I'm like, great idea. FINN Just turned 2 years old. Great idea. Let's do that. I come downstairs. Finn's doing his thing, no diaper. And this is on the weekend. And my wife says, I guess it's -4:40 outside. Let's just start today. So we're potty training in the Denis household. Now. This guy we went to on a vacation and he got candy on the airplane. So he knows candy. Now, our other kid, she didn't get candy for a while, but he now knows candy is very driven by this candy. So, like, dude, if you pee in the potty, you get a gummy bear. Pretty good deal, I think. Well, this guy has mastered this. He goes on that potty. He will do seven. Seven trips. I don't know how to word this properly, but seven events before the tank's empty. He just does A little bit at a time and just gets these gummy bears. Finally we said, okay, buddy, you're way smarter than we are. It's got to be a big event, all right? It can't just be seven small ones. It's got to be one big one to get the gummy bear. It's not thrilled with us anyways. A smart kid. So a positive moment. We're trying to make this exciting. So he sits down, he does his business, and I know what I'm talking about here on the podcast, folks. Hopefully you have a strong stomach, but so our four year old's involved, we're there, we're cheering. It's a lot of excitement. So proud of you, buddy. Good job. We're kind of yelling and screaming and it's being very excited. My 4 year old, in all the excitement, grabs the toilet. We have the little toilet that can move around room to room, and you just pop the, the bowl off and dump it, right? Well, in the excitement, she grabs it, flails her arms in the air in celebration. And on our walls, on our ceiling, all over the floor, is the celebration of Finn's first successful potty attempt. So all I could do was laugh. That is all I could do. As I went and grabbed the rags and the bucket, started cleaning, all I could do was laugh. And that laughter is definitely a positive moment for this week. Last one. I'm recording this before I go to Unity, but I get to go to Unity, Saskatchewan here on Thursday, which means by the time you listen to this episod, I've done my presentation and I love getting up there and doing a talk. I'm not doing a market outlook. I'm not doing any fancy analysis. I'm going to talk about a crop marketing plan and I'm going to talk about some of the things that I'm watching here in 2025. And it's just great to be up there. So hopefully the weather cooperates and I'm in and out and home safely by the time you listen to this. But it will be a positive moment for this week as well. So last week with John Deere, I was talking about, on the show, I was talking about precision upgrades, taking new technology and putting it on older equipment. And I had to chuckle because I got a message from my brother after he listened to the episode and he's like, he's like, yeah, the, the 9460R, we're currently upgrading. We're putting a gen 5 GPS and machine sync on that tractor. I don't know if that's the correct terminology, but that's his text. It's a chuckle because sometimes he's moving a lot faster than I am. And coincidence in last week's episode. All right, I'm a big harvest profit guy. Software that is, that is owned by, owned by John Deere. And they did launch a new feature here over the last couple of days. They now have a, a crop planner map which this feature allows you to view and modify your crop plan from a map based perspective. To help you get the most out of this new feature, they're hosting some webinars and you can also do a 14 day free trial.
Head over to harvestprofit.com to check out that new crop planner map and all the other features they have going on with harvest profit. All right, so I did, I did get, I'm getting a few more grower questions coming in. Like I've had questions about, you know, what do you do on the consulting side. So, you know, we've had some of those conversations. We'll park that for today. I had some questions about, you know, someone asked if I had more of these handy dandy books crap marketing handbook. I do have a few kicking around here somewhere.
But I got a legitimate question here about green peas. So, okay, in this episode I talk about being a recovering bear, but I still look at some of our specialty crop markets and you know, I look at them in a different, different lens, a different way. And so the, the question that came through, and I'm going to paraphrase this a little bit, but green peas, you know, they've gone up the last few years after I've priced them. There are prices them at 16 and a half, I think is the example. And they go to 18. With that in mind, with cash flow not a major concern, would you wait to price them if you're growing them here in 2025? And my answer to that is no, I would not wait to price them. And maybe that's a little bit harsh, but I can't afford to wait. I can't afford not to price some of them because when I look at some of the specialty crops out there, the acres are going to climb. By what percentage? I don't know. By what amount, I don't know. But there's going to be some higher acres. Okay. A chance, I talked about this last week, but a chance to increase production. And on the demand side for Greenpeace, I'm not that excited about the demand side. I don't think there's anything new For Greenpeace. That gets me excited about the demand side. So we're going to attempt to produce more. Keyword, there might be attempt. So I can't afford not to sell some green peas because when I look at my negative wheat margin and I look at my negative barley margin and I look at my slightly positive canola margin, I can't sit there and say, hey, green peas, you're going to make me 100 bucks an acre here with the current bids. But I'm not taking it. I'm going to walk away and see what happens. I can't afford to do that. And especially against the backdrop of higher production, we don't know are we going to actually produce this stuff? We don't know yet. We don't know what mother nature has in store for us. But I can afford not to do something on those green peas because they are my highest margin crop on my farm. Using current values as I'm recording, crop insurance prices for Saskatchewan and Alberta have been coming out here this week. And you know, my brother's just sending me over the green P number as I'm recording here. 2025, base price of 1037. I gotta have to dig into that here a little bit more. 10:37 seems a bit wild, so I'm gonna have to dig into this. But let's just say the Saskatchewan crop insurance values are strong. Okay? Like the wheat number coming in here at 774 for base price. Tell me. Green peas at 1037, barley at 468, canola at 1350. Yeah, I'm going to have to take just a bit of a better look. But if that. If that number is true, if that. If that number buys. That buys acres, then again, production goes up. I can't afford not to sell these green peasants at $14 or $14.25 or $14.50. I'm not asking you to sell all your green peas, but to get started to lock in some of these positive margins. I hope that barley and wheat present a positive margin scenario for the farm as well. But green peas are. Canola is too. Those are the crops that I want to start building a path to profitability or get something going. So would you wait? What, I wait on marketing my green peas? No, I would not wait. I would start with something. 10 bushels with Actigod. 15 bushels with Actigod. I might push a little bit more than that myself, but that's up to you to decide. And hey, if you can sell the rest of them at 1650 and at $18. Awesome. Even better. Hopefully we got the yield with it as well. But for now, to me, small or. Pardon me. Yeah, small green lentils, some of these crops. I don't have them all in front of me, but I'm marketing some of these crops. All right, I appreciate the question. Keep them coming in. And I apologize if that's harsh, but that's where I stand. All right. Other than that, I got a question, too, about, you know, tips on improving farm profitability, but I'm going to. I'm going to bring that in with a larger guest at some point. I'm going to wait that one here, wait that one out to get some better context and try to paint a better story around that. But keep the questions coming in, folks. I know there's a lot of decisions to be made. You know, I get lots of questions around wheat and stuff right now. Again, you can hit me up, Ryan, at what? The futures podcast. See, that's my email. We can get you in the, in the, in the mailbox. And, hey, maybe. Maybe I'll jazz it up here with a prize. Maybe we'll get back to something like that where every mailbox question gets entered for a prize. Let me see if I can get that lined up here for March. All right, teeing up our next segment here. I just want to say every farmer knows the best advice comes from a buddy. Share the podcast and be that buddy. All right, let's get into eating your veggies for this week. Number one, this is a layup, all right? Nothing but net on this one. Your crop power rankings. You guys have been doing this. You've been doing your cost of production, working hard on your numbers here, planning for 20, 25. Go ahead, grab these crop insurance values. Plug them in your scenarios. Plug them in to your power crop rankings. Crop power rankings. Plug them into there. See what other farmers are going to be planting here in 2025. See how this looks from a risk perspective for your farm, and just punch those numbers in. All right, that's a layup. You got to do that this week. The second one again, wheat's pulling back as I'm recording here. Down about a dime. Have you rewarded this wheat rally? I'm gonna lean more towards old crop sales, but have you rewarded the rally? And if you haven't, I'm gonna put that as number two for eating your veggies to make that little old crop. Wheat sale.
Take. Take a peek at new crop. But it's. It's a little bit. It's a little tricky on the new crop side. Okay. I think old crop is where I'd like to live here with this wheat sale.
Last one, why not sell? You know, I'm going to say sell a bit of those green peas. I said it last week already. But the small acre specialty crops that look to be, they look like those acres are climbing. Just don't lose sight of this, all right? If there is profitability there for your farm, please grab some of that start.
I think I said it last week, right, start. Or maybe a couple weeks ago, but start on the small crops. All right. Okay. Lastly, if I throw a fourth in here, this is a selfish one. Head over to Ryandenee Ca. We got lots of stuff going on over there. We've made some changes, some tweaks. If you're interested in the lunchbox crew, you can join the VIP wait list. All right, you can do that. It's where I send market intel. If you want to check out the conference. Oh, man, I've been working on a lot of stuff. Yvonne's been working on lots of stuff on the conference as well. I know it's in the background. It's all top secret right now, but it's, it's good, it's moving along. But conference, you know, you can put in your application, you don't have to buy right away. Can put in your application the weep. And what do we have left? Oh, man, was it 70 seats or something like that? Like it's, we're over half capacity already. And then if you want to do anything one on one with me on the consulting side, you can send me a message there as well. I appreciate it, getting lots of different messages coming in and that's great. Lots of convo. But anyways, folks, that's eating your veggies for this week. Well, thanks again folks for hanging in with me here for episode 65. I, you know, I have fun each and every week putting these together. And you know, we are, we've got a few different themes coming up in the near future. Got a few different series and things like that we'll get into here in 2025.
But yeah, thanks for tuning in. Thanks for hanging out with me every week. Please share, you know, subscribe on YouTube, give us a like ratings, give us some stars, comments. It all helps drive the show. When I started this, I said, hey, when farmers tell me, you know, their opinion, I'm going to take that to heart. I'm going to help use that to influence the show. Don't be a stranger yeah, send it in. So with that, folks, have a safe weekend celebrating Canada's wind. Hopefully that doesn't bite me in the butt.
I'm out.
