Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: So I had a member of the lunchbox crew say, hey, Ryan, we need a weather update. We need to see what's coming down the pipeline here for the second half of June because it's a little tense in that farmer's neck of the woods. So I had a great conversation with Brett Waltz and decided, hey, let's do a little something here for episode 80 of the what the Futures podcast. And I also have Trent Clarenbach with Clarin back research. He's been a little bullish. Canola, where does he sit? As we get towards the middle part of June, let's get into it here for episode 80 of the what the Futures podc.
Hey, folks, welcome to the what the Futures podcast, your quick guide to better farming decisions.
All right, folks, welcome into episode 80 of the what the Futures podcast. Of course, recorded each and every week in the UPL studio. We got a little UPL action happening on our farm here next week. We're going to got canola to spray and we're going to do a little inner line wave application. We've got Northern Saskatchewan. We've got, let's just say it ain't perfect out there, folks. Of course, we do have some rains here in the forecast. Fingers crossed that we get something decent here. But we're going to go and play around a little bit here, do some on farm trials here. We're gonna do our first phase of our wave application, which of course is a product that you use in stressful situations. So we're going to give it some love here over the next week.
All right, I want to, I got a quick contest thing we need to do right off the hop. But before, before I get to that, I just want to congratulate Robert. If you remember a couple episodes ago, I said, hey, there's something new in the studio.
It's not on the back wall. You got to tell me what it is. I'll put together a little what the Futures prize pack. Got some new hats showing up here any moment now. And Robert said, nice glasses, Ryan. And that was it. I got some new glasses. I know that's a tough one, folks. I would never have have gotten that one either. But Robert, Sharp eye over there, pal. You're going to get some what the futures swag. Picking out my new lenses. It's funny, you know, I don't notice the darn thing. Like my wife goes, you know, I feel bad for her because she goes and gets new glasses or clothes or hair stuff. And I'm just, I'm brutal at noticing this stuff. But yet my 4 year old, I go to pick her up from preschool today. I got these glasses and she just comes right out and dad, nice new glasses. I'm like wow, kid, I don't know how you pick that up but they are sharp at that age.
All right, now to this latest contest, folks. Latest contest. I asked everyone to listen to this episode as fast as they could because if you're an Oilers or a Panthers fan. Friday, June 13th Friday the 13th. Oh boy, I'm picking again. High Noon Mountain Time, June 13th. It's a Friday. I'm picking a winner. Two pairs, four tickets for Oilers versus Panthers on Saturday, June 14th, 6pm Puck drop in Edmonton, Alberta. You have to email me ryan deniefarming.com you have to be a farm to qualify. You gotta be farming here to qualify and you have to be able to attend the game to qualify. You have to tell me which farm, farm, neighbor, doesn't have to be a neighbor. Could be anybody that farms around you or across the prairies who you're bringing to the game with you. So think about it this way. Two tickets for you, you and your partner or someone on your farm, two tickets for their farm. But you're all going to the game together. So email me Ryan deniefarming.com youm gotta get that in.
I know it's high pressure on Friday the 13th so we can pick our winner and we're going to send some folks over to to Edmonton to watch this great hockey game and I hope I'm there with you.
I'll be wearing my echo jersey if I'm there and I will certainly let you know. So is that clear? Four tickets. You got to nominate another farm. Basically you say, hey Ryan, I'm farmer here, I'm bringing farmer this farmer because of this reason. Ryan deniefarming.com that's how you email me. If you want a bonus entry. Just go to social media, go to X Instagram, Facebook and just tag them in there and say hey, I'm bringing Bob or I'm bringing Ryan or whoever and you'll get a bonus entry as well. Okay? You got to be a farmer and you got to be bringing a farm and you have to attend in person. Four tickets, two farms, one unforgettable night. Stanley Cup Final Saturday, June 14 6pm Buck Drop Edmonton, Alberta Four seats together. You'll all be sitting together and a night to celebrate farming, friendships and a damn good playoff run. Hey, I'm in it for the ride folks. I was down in the Dumps game three a little bit, but my team's in the, in the finals. Like, you can't win, lose or draw. You can't go wrong. All right. Okay, I think we got it all. Bonus entry. Go to our social media tag the person, the farm that you're bringing, and I think we're good to go there. All right, one last thing. Conference tickets while the playoffs are on, go to ryand ca. Apply for your conference for the conference in Moosera. Crop marketing made cool. You're going to save $97 per ticket. The code is McDavid97. Again, you need to email me. You have to apply to the conference to get the, the link to buy those tickets. We want farms in those seats. And McDavid 97, that is the code you're going to use. Save yourself 97 bucks.
That deal ends when the playoffs end. So I know John emailed me and said, ryan, I need five tickets. I'm going to save myself $97 times five. No pressure. John, we got you everything you need now, but when the finals are over, the code disappears as well. Now, all right, folks, I want to get into it here. Let's start off Brett Waltz with Bam wx. We're going to talk weather. We're going to come back. I'm going to talk to you guys about a story about being a smaller farm and buying power. I just have a comment around that because we've had a lot of fertilizer discussion. I'll do some fertilizer price discovery for you because you know, why the heck not? Nobody else wants to talk about this stuff publicly. So I'll let it be what the futures. And then I got some crop marketing comments where we sit here mid June. Then we'll get into it with Trent Clarenback. Then we'll have eating your veggies, positive moments, all that good stuff here for episode 80. So let's rock and roll. Let's keep it going. Brett Waltz, BAM weather.
All right, folks, I've got Brett Waltz with BAM Weather joining me once again on the what the futures podcast. Brett, how's it going today, buddy? Hey.
[00:06:49] Speaker B: Going very well. Enjoying some sunshine out here today. And we'll take it. It has been rainy and not super warm. And so it finally feels a little bit like summer out here today in central Indiana.
[00:07:02] Speaker A: We'll trade you. We will take. We'll take wet and gloomy and you could keep the warm. We'll. We'll trade you. All right. Okay, so Indiana Pacers, that, that's in your Backyard, right. NBA Finals. Are you.
How is it a high level of excitement or is it just like it's, it's there, like it's happening.
[00:07:23] Speaker B: I, you know, I think across the community there's a ton of excitement.
You know, I, I love the Pacers. I've not been. I'm not like a die hard fan like I am for Indiana basketball. IU Baske. Yeah, I'm more of a college sports fan, but I am certainly paying attention and watching them and it's just really cool for the state to have some, some basketball. Basketball success at a professional level. So I'm pumped. I'm excited to watch the game tomorrow.
[00:07:53] Speaker A: And they call it, you know, small market team, right? You're not the Lakers or the Knicks or whatever. So small market team seeing some successes is always fun.
[00:08:03] Speaker B: I think that they underestimate the power of Indiana basketball though. We're a rowdy bunch when it comes to basketball here in Indiana. So even for college basketball, I mean the rivalry between IU and Purdue, it's just a basketball state.
[00:08:20] Speaker A: Well, we have the NHL Stanley cup playoffs. It's the finals this week.
You know, in line with NBA finals. They run the same two weeks basically. But my, my Edmonton Oilers are in the finals. Licking my wounds. They lost last night. So we're down 2:1 in the series, but feeling good about game four on Thursday. So yeah, best of luck.
[00:08:42] Speaker B: Yeah, it's exciting.
[00:08:43] Speaker A: So Brett, from a weather perspective, you know, for many it's been maybe a little bit warmer, a little bit drier here this spring. Of course you're, we're talking about a massive area and within that there's some, there's some very wet pockets as well and some great growing areas. But just want to get your perspective here on, on kind of what you see as we get towards the second half of June and if you have any indication here on. On prairie weather into July.
[00:09:14] Speaker B: Yeah, for sure. So, you know, next seven days there's a storm system that will move through and potentially drop some decent rains for areas across northern Saskatchewan and into Alber.
Not quite as active this week for central and southeastern portions of the prairies, but I do see late June. You know, there is the potential, I think the week two time frame, which will be what, between the 17th and the 24th or so. There should be some decent rain opportunities in there and so some relief for areas that need some of the precipitation.
I do think that as we trend back into early July, that could become a little bit more sporadic, especially for areas the further west that you go maybe not as widespread, maybe a little bit more hit or miss, with the best chances coming the further south and east that you go. So kind of a west to east divide, I would say, further into July.
[00:10:10] Speaker A: Okay. Is there anything that would signal, like a major change in this weather pattern over the next month? Or would you. Would you say that it's kind of, you know, what we've been getting is not far from what. What will be transpiring here over the next little while?
[00:10:27] Speaker B: Yeah, I think that generally it's a little bit more of the same. You might get a little bit more of kind of the. The rain and storm activity further south and east than what we've had.
And so parts of Saskatchewan, you know, if you've missed out. I know we were kind of talking about that before we hopped on. I think that there's some opportunities in there. Yeah, there's some potential for timely rains. But generally speaking, you know, I do think that areas that have been a little bit drier, that have a little bit lower soil moisture kind of stay that way.
There's just not a global pattern driver right now that's fluctuating enough to suggest that there's going to be a massive change in the overall pattern right now.
[00:11:09] Speaker A: Okay. All right. Well, as I look out my window, we have to keep the kids inside this afternoon because the smoke is so thick out there.
Does the smoke. Does it have an impact to the weather forecast? Like, does it change things at all? Or does it impact the.
Or slow down a rain event if it's coming? Like, what does the smoke do?
[00:11:36] Speaker B: That's a great question. And the simple answer is it depends.
[00:11:40] Speaker A: On a little bit.
[00:11:43] Speaker B: It kind of depends on what level it's at.
If it has to be. To have a noticeable impact, it would have to be very thick, a very thick layer of smoke. Now, I'd imagine up there where you all are at, you're closer to where the fires are compared to where we are at down here. We've got a haze in the sky down here.
If anything, if it's a very thick layer and it's low enough in the atmosphere, it can potentially limit thunderstorm development a little bit. It can act as kind of a suppressor.
And so if you think about a thunderstorm, it's got a rise, rise, rise, where that. That smoke layer is a little bit more stable.
And so it could potentially limit how intense thunderstorms can get. But I would say that's probably a rarer occurrence.
It's probably not producing widespread weather impacts. Aside from low air quality and just general visibility issues.
[00:12:40] Speaker A: Okay, all right, I appreciate that.
The winds have been traveling from where I live to the south and the east and obviously blowing smoke towards you.
So we've been fairly lucky so far this year. But it's just starting to settle in a bit for us here where my in laws live. They've been sending us a few pictures and it looks like the Armageddon there. Like it's just really crispy and smoke and it just, it does not look very fun. And that's all.
[00:13:12] Speaker B: That's probably where it would impact things a little bit more is when you have that, that type of a look, if you will. If you will.
[00:13:20] Speaker A: So, well, I've been, I've been taking a peek and if you see John and Tyler in the lunchroom or at the coffee machine, just thank them for me because I've been pestering you guys.
I use the chat function on clarity quite a bit. Especially, you know, the farm has not received much rain this year. And so, you know, I've been checking in, of course, getting the forecast, but also checking in with the chat saying, oh, all right. Is this actually what we're, what we're going to see or do you have anything a little better for me? And so John and Tyler have been great.
I don't know if you guys are there like 24 hours a day, but they seem to respond whenever I message.
[00:14:04] Speaker B: So there's pretty much somebody always here. So. All right, at this point, John, John is here right now. Tyler should be in by now. He should be in by now. I'll, I'll go, I'll go run them now before I head out today.
[00:14:18] Speaker A: There you go.
All right, so I'm just looking here at the map as well. We've got, you know, future forecast. I'm looking at the, the seven day rain forecast. It looks like Alberta, you know, this episode will probably go later Thursday or Friday. So the rain events will either have started or be right around the corner. Looks like Alberta's got a pretty good chance. And even that northern Alberta, northern Saskatchewan, which would, you know, fingers crossed, kind of calm some of the, some of the fire activity up there. So fingers crossed there. Brett, I wanted to ask quickly, when you're looking at the US Growing season, you know, there's been talk of, you know, early on was, you know, watch out for maybe some drought risk as the summer, you know, started in the Corn belt.
Where are you guys at now from a forecast perspective in the US and that Corn Belt?
[00:15:14] Speaker B: Yeah, for sure. You know, that that was not only the initial idea that analogs and pattern drivers had, but the data had it too.
And the data keeps trying to bring it in. It keeps trying to suggest that it's going to happen, and it keeps just not rolling forward that way. And so, you know, we made an adjustment at the end of May before the start of the, the quote, unquote summer months, June, July and August, to turn the forecast a little bit wetter, a little bit less dire, if you will, or less extreme.
You know, I think that there's still the potential that parts of the plains in the US could have some dryness as we get into July, but a lot of corn grown in Minnesota and Iowa and Illinois and Indiana that I think are going to have plenty of rains over the next couple of weeks. And it's been, it's been active. It hasn't been that hot. I don't see a ton of heat. And so, you know, I think all things considered, not that bad right now.
And a couple of, you know, oceanic pattern drivers have shifted a little bit to lead to that change.
But, you know, willing to say that we, we've trended from the initial idea, we've just turned it a little bit more active, kind of pushed some of the heat and the dryness further west. You talked about wildfire smoke in Canada. I'd watch out for the western half the US later this season as well because starting to get pretty hot and dry out there too.
[00:16:35] Speaker A: Yeah, fair enough.
All right, Brett, well, appreciate you jumping on the show this week. Thanks for the update and yeah, we'll see what happens from a rainfall perspective here this week. A lot of anticipation about what we could see and fingers crossed that everybody listening gets what they need to keep the, keep the growing season flowing for us. So appreciate you jumping on.
[00:16:58] Speaker B: Yep, thank you.
[00:17:02] Speaker A: Well, for positive moments this week, folks, I gotta kick it off here with the farm. Yeah, obviously it's been in, probably in my tone, or you can see it on the, in the episode the last couple of weeks, but it's obviously, it's a bit stressful on the farm right now with less than an inch of rain so far this growing season. But my positive moment is the farm supports that have, that have come in throughout this time. And what I mean by that is, you know, we had decisions to make. You know, we now we've put in the seed, we've. We've put in the fertilizer, and so now it's spray season, so we had to make some decisions. So it's it's support from the agronomists coming in that we work with, you know, checking things out, doing plant counts, giving us an opinion.
It's the, the reps that have come out and said, hey, we want to come see how things are looking here and give you some, an honest opinion on what we think's the play to do.
Even from our retail, you know, our local retail coming out and just having a conversation with us and talking about the chem bookings, you know, what's going to work, what isn't going to work, what could be maybe a bit of cost savings here or there, like having that discussion about what to do and also what's available in their inventory for supply.
So all those people coming together and just providing expertise and opinions on what to do. And then lastly, you know, we got a call from our private insurance provider to say, hey, I think I'm going to be out there, come out and see you guys in the next week or so.
And so, you know, that is someone that if we don't produce a crop, they would be writing us a substantial check in the seven figures and just coming in and say, hey, I just want to get boots on the ground, see what's going on and just talk to you guys, make sure everybody's doing okay. And hey, it's appreciated. So I'm going to put that down as positive moments for this week.
I'll spin it over to me here just a little bit. There was two quick ones. Lunchbox Crew is. It's just over a year old here by days. We had that first run, first half of June where we kind of opened it up and, and took in our first, our first group. And so we've gone through the renewal process with, with a bunch of folks and just I want to thank, thank the Lunchbox Crew, the, the members that have been here from the start, that have let me tweak and try to improve where I can and have been, you know, with me since the, since the beginning. So thank you for that continued support. And my last one here, this is a little bit more fun on my side, but I call it the Hillbilly Hot Tub.
So we, we rent a hot tub most years. We're not fancy like some of you with, you know, that $30,000 hot tub sitting on the back deck. We, we rent the Hillbilly Hot Tub from Bernie's Hot Tub. And no, Bernie did not sponsor this segment, but I texted him on Sunday because we usually rent it the end of June. And you know, you got father's Day. You got my birthday in there. And. And so I texted him on Sunday. I'm like, hey, Bernie, whenever you're, he's 20 minutes away from me. Whenever you're driving by with a hot tub, just come toss it on the lawn for me. Like, no rush.
He was out 45 minutes later with the hot tub. And so we got this big bright blue thing hooked up with the propane heater and all the good stuff. And we got the hillbilly hot tub rental in full swing and. All right, and the last one here for pause a moment, just a very happy Father's Day. I butchered this for Mother's Day a month ago. But very happy Father's Day for everyone out there and all those that, you know, inspire, you know, the kids, your nieces, your nephews, the little people in your life that you're surrounded with all those great father figures out there. My first Father's Day was not one that I would wish on any other father.
And you know, trying to figure out how to celebrate Father's Day with not having your child there tell you it's not easy. And I know a lot of folks go through this.
This is not something that is rare or outside.
Many folks across the prairies go through this day with a bit of a heavy heart. So, you know, I'm with you as well, folks, that the guys out there going through this weekend in a different way than I am this year. All right, so again, happy Father's Day for all those inspirational figures out there in our young, young people, little people's lives. That's it for positive moments for this week.
Well, folks, Egg in Motion is just over a month away. I'm super excited. I've got a action packed week down at Egg in Motion here and I'm going to be spending Tuesday afternoon at the John Deere booth. Gonna be there 2, 2:30 for the whole afternoon. I'm gonna be. They have this beautiful, obviously booth, but they've got this great tent set up and I'm going to be hanging out in there. We're going to be going over the latest technology. John Deere operations center will be in there. I'm hoping they got a little harvest profit action for us as well.
I know, you know, earlier this week there was that announcement. JD John Deere JDLink boost to Canada. That's the partnership with StarLink. And basically JDLink Boost is a benefit for farmers when they're operating in fields where cellular coverage is limited or unreliable. That's the type of stuff that we're gonna be looking at in the John Deere booth this year. So super excited. You can come hang out with me. That's gonna be on the Tuesday.
And if you wanna write that date on the calendar, why don't you put Tuesday, July 15th from 2:00 clock on in the John Deere booth down at Egg of Motion. I'll see you there. All right. From a weather perspective, I'm very optimistic for the next couple weeks here. You know, I'm crossing my fingers, knocking on wood, trying to, you know, rub together a lucky rabbit's foot. Is that what it is? Like, stuff like that. Trying to, trying to bring some good, good luck to the farm here for a rain event. And so when I did an outlook here for the lunchbox crew, again, we kind of sped this one up. It was only supposed to be in a few weeks from now, but it's so critical right now. Lots of decisions being made on the farm and you know, basically when we looked at the outlook, it had a pretty interesting next couple of weeks. From a moisture perspective, it's not going to be perfect. Some of you are going to stare down 3, 4, 5 inches of rain and you might shake your head and be frustrated at that. Hopefully we get it in the north, calm those fires down a little bit and some of you are going to get like a half inch and be frustrated that it's not nearly enough. Right. It's going to be like that.
But what I was looking at was the trend into July. That's what makes crop marketing really tricky this year because everybody out there has got a warmer, drier forecast for July and August. Doesn't matter who it is really. That's all I kind of see out there. What does this rain event do now? What do we get for yield potential and then where do we go from here? And man, does it make crop marketing a little tricky. So before I get to that, I just wanted to say a quick story. So fertilizer prices, I guess I want to, I don't know if I want to just say this out loud and I don't know what, we'll see what you think about this comment, but the comment is around like buying power. Okay, so like with the thought being that if you farm, you know, 10,000 acres instead of 5,000 acres, the 10,000 acre farm is going to get a better deal on the product. If you farm 20,000 acres instead of 10,000 acres, you're going to get a better deal on the farm. There's definitely price advantages from, you know, efficiencies are a big one. So, you know, if you can work very efficiently with getting that product delivered and think about fuel, like if you could take one entire truckload of fuel, one stop, like that's efficiencies and their savings with that, that's probably a pretty easy example. It's like taking a full truckload of glyphosate, right? You know, you one stop like it, there's efficiencies there, there's savings, there's savings there with efficiencies. But I guess what I want to say here is, is that it doesn't necessarily mean the biggest farms don't necessarily get the best deals. And I don't know if these two brothers are going to be listening to this episode or not. They'll definitely message me if they do. But that came up the other day about, well, you know, I'm a little bit smaller farmer, so I just don't get those great fertilizer prices that, that everybody else, that the bigger farmers get. My comment back to this individual is that the farm that I know that has paid the lowest price for fertilizer for the last like decade that I know of, and I get a lot of fertilizer prices. I'm not going to sit here and say I know every penny of a fertilizer deal and I can sit here and say I've combed through thousands of these. But when I look at the numbers presented to me, this one farm, they farm call it 800 acres and they pay the lowest amount for fertilizer, for urea every single year for the last decade. And the reason they do, number one, they do their price checks, they are checking the market. And number two, the, the person that ends up selling it to them basically says, well, you know what, at the end of the day, this isn't going to impact my financials a whole bunch one way or the other on my side. And so they end up doing this deal.
It changes suppliers regularly. I would say it's not consistent. They pay the lowest that I see when I look at all my numbers, as always the lowest. And then it comes back of like, well, it wasn't, it's not a huge volume deal that's going to make or break my, my business or my company. So, you know, I'm, I'm good to get this done. So I want to just say like, I know that bigger and efficient efficiencies and things like that can lead to, lead to some savings and some, some better pricing. But you know, don't there's more to it than that. And don't discount yourself if you're on the smaller scale.
You don't. Don't discount yourself on that, on your size, because I think a bit of price check inconsistency, conversation, negotiation. You guys are farmers. You are the best negotiators. You love negotiating. That's more important. That's what, what this kind of boils down to if you're looking at price. You know, I. I don't know if I've said this on the show in the last year and a half or so, but, like, I worked for an organization that did it all. They sold stuff and they bought stuff, right? They sold the input, they bought grain. The farmers that pay the most for product were the ones that were not doing the price checks, that were not doing a little bit of the legwork to see what else was out there.
And the more loyal that you were, the higher. The higher the prices were.
And I remember sitting down, I had, again, I'm working for this organization. I'm a crop marketing person.
And I sat there and I just said, hey, why, like, why are you guys paying so much more for your canola seed and your fertilizer?
Like, I work with 30 farms here, and I'm just, I don't understand why you guys are paying so much higher.
And of course, I was not popular in the boardroom the next week, but, you know, it was, hey, we're loyal to this company. They. They do some. Some good work and the farm was. Was paying for that. And again, I'm not here to say one way is right or wrong. Honestly, this started with just talking about size of farm and how to get the best deal or to maybe give yourself a bit more credit on getting a good deal done. But I honestly, it's just being a little sharp and, and checking, checking things out and, you know, keeping everybody honest. You might. I talk to farms all the time. I want one of my, you know, best better friends that farms, you know, they know that they pay a little bit more for certain products, but they have their reasons for it. And the reasons are very much about community engagement, very much about service.
And hey, I got no issues with that. No problems with that at all. I think that's great and fantastic. All right, so. All right, there we go.
Now, I want to talk before we get to Trent, I want to talk crop marketing here, because crop marketing, we've entered this really weird phase, this very strange phase of you kind of sit here and number one, think about it, but tell me what crop, what price has just caused you to pause the last week or so where you kind of, maybe you did a bit of a head turn, maybe you did a bit of a double check on that text message with that hot special for new crop. You know, maybe you were looking saying, hey, wow, that's, that's better than I expected. What crop? Because I don't, I don't have one for you. I really don't. And we're entering this phase right now where it's a little bit boring because it's, it's dry for many the, the, the maps. I have peppered the lunchbox here with all these maps. Topsoil, moisture, drought index, average precipitation, departure from average. Like all these maps over the last week or so. It's, it's tense out there and it's dry. And so from a crop marketing perspective, as a buyer sitting there, you're saying, well, I'm going to, I'm going to go with Mother Nature on this one. I'm going to go with the rain coming. That's what I'm going to do. So I'm not adjusting price. And there's a farm, I talked to a farm this morning and he's like, everyone's canceling their targets. Like the buyers are like, everyone's canceling everything. And because a farm you're not selling, we didn't sell anything physical this week. Right? You're not doing it either. I don't think some of you have phenomenal looking crops, though. So, man, like, just, you know, if you want to sell some canola or like, go for it because your crop looks fantastic, but it's tense out there. And so the prices aren't doing much of anything. The buyers are waiting for you to blink. We're waiting for Mother Nature to perform a little bit better and bring those reins that we, that we need. And we're just kind of caught in the middle right now. So after Trent, we'll talk eating your veggies. I got a few strategies for you to think about in this environment.
And let's get into my great combo here with Trent from Klarinbach Research, Trent Klarenbach with Klarenbach Research. Welcome back to the what the Futures podcast. How you doing, Trent?
[00:32:32] Speaker C: I'm doing great, Ryan. Tuesday afternoon in Saskatoon. It's a great day.
[00:32:37] Speaker A: Good stuff. Good stuff. You've.
Well, I've been paying close attention here lately because you've been throwing out a couple things on a couple posts on social media, and one of them was sell exclamation mark. And you had me and a few others panicking to just double check what you were selling specifically. But I think we got it figured out.
[00:33:03] Speaker C: Yeah, yeah, yeah. That particular post was referencing the S&P 500.
Hopefully you didn't take that advice.
[00:33:12] Speaker A: I did. I did not. I was not fast enough on that one. So.
Yeah. But what I am looking for today, Trent, you know, if we want to spin to farming here and Canadian prairie agriculture, canola market.
You've been a bull here for a long time now. I don't know if we should say a long time, but all winter I would say, I don't know, maybe longer than that.
How you feeling with this canola market these days?
[00:33:40] Speaker C: Well, I mean, I do think there's another leg up here in Canola that's just see this consolidation at this period, at this level, on the 700 level. If we can get above there, then I think there's obviously another run. But we need to get above there first. But I do feel good about it. I do feel good about it for sure.
[00:33:59] Speaker A: Well, these things can take time as well, right? Doesn't happen overnight. So even though we might like it to, they can take time.
[00:34:05] Speaker C: They always seem to take longer.
Rallies take longer than one anticipated and the sell offs come quicker than one wants.
[00:34:14] Speaker A: Yeah, always the sell offs are. Oh man, they're brutal when they happen. Especially when you're not quite ready for it, not quite prepared. We've had, you know, a small little sell off here in spring wheat. Of course, we are recording this in the earlier part of the week. Spring wheat said two negative days.
Are you feeling any different towards spring wheat? Is it a market that shows any potential for you on the upside or where do you sit on that one?
[00:34:39] Speaker C: Yeah, I think there's potential in the hard red spring wheat market. I mean, it's a sign of a trend change on the daily chart, maybe even on signs of one, maybe on the longer term chart.
Could be, could be a stage one accumulation if you're into stage analysis right now. So I do think that, yeah, of all the wheats, it looks the most bullish to me and certainly in consideration with Kansas City and Chicago, those don't look, don't look very good to me at all.
[00:35:13] Speaker A: So do you find, like, obviously the volumes are much higher on Chicago and less degree that, you know, Kansas. Like do you think, you know, for spring wheat to show something special here, we'd have to see those other ones at least hold support or climb with it. Or do you find they can kind of act independently.
[00:35:34] Speaker C: Well, I, I believe where Chicago goes, the rest will go also.
So maybe, maybe Chicago's leading us another leg down. Maybe Chicago and can Kansas are certainly in downtrends across.
Well, every time frame that I look at, yeah. So maybe they're just leading hardware, you know, relating, leading Minneapolis, you know, Europe, Europe's in a similar chart pattern to Chicago and Kansas City. So maybe Minneapolis is just, it's just going to be a little, little slower to continue that downtrend. But right now it's suggesting to me we could see a rally in it. So.
[00:36:16] Speaker A: Yeah, well, I, you know, I, I, I've said a few comments here maybe the last week or so. I don't know if we'll call them idiotic comments yet. Time will tell.
But you know, I've certainly, pardon me, I've certainly been struggling here to sell physical new crop anything at this moment. And, and wheat being one of those, you know, I struggle with, with the way the weather is kind of playing out for us right now and the, the forecast into summer. It's also causing me to kind of pause a little bit here on the physical contracting side. But I guess if I could pry some bullishness out of you in spring wheat, I'd appreciate it because it'd make me feel better.
[00:36:59] Speaker C: So I'm not getting sell signals on hard red spring wheat, if that means anything.
Yeah, to me it's a sign of a beginning of an uptrend.
[00:37:08] Speaker A: So I want to, I want to switch gears here now to you know, an input, I guess diesel values. You've been chatting diesel here lately on, on some of your, some of the content that I get through the subscription there.
You know, obviously farms like to fill the tanks at some point during the summer, get ready for harvest.
What are you seeing in that market these days?
[00:37:35] Speaker C: Well, that commentary that I provided here last week on diesel, it came I guess at the inspiration of my buddy afid. He asked me about if you should be buying diesel fuel. And my comments were I felt diesel's going lower and it did for about a week or close to a week and then we saw a rally. So I switched my, my thoughts on diesel and I think we're going to see higher prices here in the, in the near term.
So this could be a sign of a trend change. We're seeing a rally in oil.
Oil's trading around that $65 mark, which is, it's very important level to me. I think it's going to take a bit of work to get above there. But nonetheless you Know, I'm seeing some signs that the downtrend could be, you know, slowing down or reversing here in both those markets.
[00:38:33] Speaker A: Okay, all right, I appreciate that. You know, when you look at markets here in general, and I'm sure. I'm sure there's outliers, but, like, is there. Do you find. There's a lot of. A lot of activity right now, like, a lot of. I don't know how to say this, but, you know, lots of. Lots of action.
Exciting.
You know, you're checking things out because there's so much going on. Is that what you have in front of you right now, or is it a little bit boring? Quote, unquote boring?
[00:39:03] Speaker C: Well, I'm really struggling to produce some actual content this week. You know, I see there, you know, we've seen some volatility, as I guess we always do, but I'm just really struggling with producing some content that's got.
That creates some value and some utility for the listener.
And there's a lot of noise out there. You know, there's some guys, you know, in different parts, you know, a lot of crop commentary.
Of course, there's tariffs and all kind of stuff going on there, too. But weather, crop, it's just a really noisy place this time of year, and I think one has to kind of sit back and just kind of wait and see where the trend is going. And right now, I've seen the sideways consolidation. I just. Just. I don't know. I don't know what to talk about at the moment. So.
[00:39:56] Speaker A: Yeah, I'm with you. Like the, you know, to some degree, you know, canola wheat market, some of these other markets have. Seems to be.
I don't know if I want to call it a holding pattern, but.
Yeah, just not a lot of action at this time. And, you know, as the growing season continues on, you know, I'm always looking at production and weather, of course, but sometimes you get these. These peaks that happen at this time of year, and I'm just struggling. Struggling to see them right now.
[00:40:27] Speaker C: So, yeah, yeah, a lot of noise. You know, if you. You really have to manage your emotions and.
And not get too caught up in the headlines, I believe at this time. So.
[00:40:38] Speaker A: Yeah, for sure.
What do you got going on this summer? Are you gonna be egg in motion's, like a month away here? Just over a month away.
Are you gonna be at egg in motion again this year?
[00:40:49] Speaker C: I'll be at egg in motion, yeah. I'll be set up in that Scotiabank 10th again. At least it was Scotiabank last year could be the same one this year.
[00:40:56] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:40:57] Speaker C: Hopefully get some rain to settle the dust and cool things off, but yeah, it'll be. I'm looking forward to. It's a good event. A lot. A lot of traffic, a lot of producers are there and it's always good for conversation.
[00:41:10] Speaker A: Yeah, you bet. And do you have anything fun planned for your space this year? Any.
Yeah. Any games or anything?
[00:41:20] Speaker C: My wife tells me I'm boring, so I have trouble coming up with engaging ideas, so I'll maybe try to come up with something there. I usually give away, you know, I give away a trial to my product and through it, but maybe we'll have to try to liven that up a little bit with some other ideas, but.
[00:41:39] Speaker A: Just liven it up with. With gripping market analysis that, you know, everyone you talk to gets that. Gets that gripping analysis and that'll fill their cup. So. Yeah, yeah, yeah, good stuff. Anything else planned for this summer? Are you going to be anywhere else? Any other speaking engagements? I know it gets quite a bit, you know, quieter for. For that stuff in the summer, but anything popping out on the. Popping up on the calendar?
[00:42:08] Speaker C: Yeah, I got nothing lined up here at the moment. It seems to be a bit of an off season, at least for me. But, yeah, I'm certainly open to coming out and visiting with any producer groups or anyone else for that matter. And.
And, but yeah, I got an open schedule at the moment, so.
[00:42:24] Speaker A: Good stuff.
And if people want to track down your research, where do they go?
[00:42:32] Speaker C: Well, I'm all over social media. I'm on Twitter, I'm active on Twitter, LinkedIn, of course.
Klarenbach. Ca. Spelled with a K ends in an H.
It's my website, my YouTube channel, Klarnbach Research YouTube channel, which I'm getting back into producing more regular content there. So, yep, there'll be some. Everything from the stock market to the commodity market, too.
[00:42:59] Speaker A: So a little bit of bitcoin in there as well. Cryptocurrency, currency stuff.
[00:43:05] Speaker C: Gold and silver. One going out today, so.
[00:43:07] Speaker A: Yeah, there you go. All right, well, I look forward to catching up with you at Egg in Motion. I'll be there for all three days, so look forward to connecting. And yeah, hopefully that wind and dust has settled down and we're all talking about big, beautiful crops like we were last year, right? Oh, better not say that. But yeah, yeah, yeah.
All right. Thanks, Trent. Take care.
[00:43:30] Speaker C: Thanks, Ryan. Take care.
[00:43:34] Speaker A: Okay. I. I struggled with eating your veggies. I'm not gonna lie. This is the spot where you know, I'm supposed to give you some fantastic advice.
And, you know, I, I, I, I appreciate, you know, my kitchen window perspective has been a challenge for me because obviously you're, that's your biggest influence. So I, I appreciate the folks that did show me that they had some nice average crops to above average potential out there. That certainly helped straighten me out a little bit on my end. So for eating your veggies, this is what I've come up with for this week. Number one, I wrote down canola puts, and you're like, man, Ryan, are you nuts? Like, this is a crazy weather forecast. We're getting bowled up here.
We're hearing people canceling targets everywhere.
That's not my advice out there at this time. But I think when I look at Canola and the canola market, $700 canola futures, I understand that you might want to be a bit more bullish above this. I own call options right now. I'm on record here owning call options, but the Canola put. Let's just, for a second, let's just review this. Okay, so let's say, here's a, here's probably my favorite example that I used earlier this morning, actually. I was chatting with a farmer, and this is a line company scenario.
So the scenario was basically that, hey, we got a bunch of rain coming, right? That's the reality here of what's supposed to happen.
And so are we going to be bullish or bearish Canola? So we talked about the no price established. I think that's how they would word it. But no price established put option at a couple different companies out there. You can email the show. I'll tell you who it is. But basically, you could, you could go to a line company and say, hey, I want to protect $700 futures. I don't want to sell my Canola under, like, 15 bucks. I want to protect this.
But I'm worried about production. I'm worried about the growing season. I'm worried about what happens in July. You could buy a put option. You can buy a $700 canola put.
Let's, let's go grab you guys a quick value on that here while I'm recording. By the way, I'm going to do my best, but let's go get a $700 canola put, and let's protect this value now. $700 canola put. It's coming in at a buck a bushel. All right.
You know, you're probably, you're probably 50 bucks, 50 bucks a ton. When it's all said and done, all right? And so now you've got this, but you got. You have no basis established, and you have no futures established. So in that scenario, if you did not produce the crop, you would phone that company and say, hey, I didn't produce this. July got hot and dry. I didn't get it. You know what happens here? Well, they would. They would sell the put. It's not worth zero, right? You could phone them in July and August whenever it's. It's kind of done, and over in September and say, hey, I didn't get this.
You know, what's the plan? And they'd say, you know what? Okay, we're going to sell that put back. We got 10 bucks back. You know, you always. A check for 40 bucks. You do. A thousand tons is 40 grand. All right? That's your. That's your risk in this. But the reason I like to put options is that, like, let's say.
Let's say I'm wrong. Let's say I buy my put and I'm wrong. This market goes up to 800 bucks. Like, that's. You want that, right? Hopefully you have a crop and it's going to 800 bucks a ton, but you want that. And so you also can just say, hey, you know what?
I'm going to sell this put. Now. The market's obviously doing some better things. Trent Klarenbach has been bullish. Canola. It continues to go up, up. Like, whatever reasons it, it does it. You just phone and sell that put, get back. Or you might get half your value back. You might get three quarters. Whatever it is, you get it back. You let canola go to 800 and you participate in. In that. It's basically a put option today that says, hey, you know what? I don't know what's going to fall for rain. I don't know what's going to happen from a production side, but I know I don't want to sell canola at 600 or 620 or the 580 that we were at before. I don't want to do any of that. I want to protect 700.
Now this. This is a little rich. Like, it's not like 50 bucks a ton is. Is rich. You're going to phone one company, they're probably going to quote you, like 65 bucks a ton. Like, that's a little crazy, but it is a. It is there to protect downside. I've been going through the brokerage channel instead.
Buying a put, selling a put A bare put spread. Again, seek the advice of a professional folks. Don't listen to a Yahoo on the what the futures podcast. But basically getting that down to 30, 30 bucks a ton, something like that. Like getting my protection but also not, not giving it, giving all my, my margin away. So anyways, canola puts. Let's do that. One second. One. Fertilizer quotes.
Fertilizer, 700 bucks a ton right now.
You know, give or take a little bit.
That's the summer fill price. I'm not, I'm not asking you to go and buy it at that price. I'm just asking you to go on the whiteboard and start writing it down, start checking it and you'll see. We'll see where it goes. So that's number two, those fertilizer quotes for our summer fill folks out there. And then the last one is just going back to scenarios here and it's important for you and I would try to do this this weekend, but your what if scenarios on if it rains. Like, I don't know what your area's forecast for, but I know some are going to get 3, 4, 5 inches of rain. So what's your plan if it rains and what's your plan, your scenario if it does not rain both.
If it rains and you're getting comfortable with production, what does that do to your crop marketing plan? How does it influence it if it doesn't rain?
Where are you at? Do you have any targets out there? Do you have any contracts that you're. You need to create some risk management strategies around? Like what, what do you got going on? But just look at it. This isn't going to take you very long. But what does it, what does it do? What, how does it impact me, my farm, if I get this rain over the next two weeks and if I do not, there's two extremes in there, but where do you fall and make sure that you kind of plan around it. Okay, let's leave it at that. For eating your veggies for this week.
Alrighty folks. Well, thanks again for hanging out here on episode 80. It sure makes it makes it easy when you get great guests like Brett with Bam weather and Trent with Clarinebach researcher. Makes my my job nice and easy.
So again, share this episode with a friend farming friend. If you don't mind, I would certainly appreciate it. Of course. Hit that subscribe button on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast. And hey, if you made it this to the to the end here, don't forget about the contest that we started off. I know it's going to close Friday at noon, that's June 13th. But go in and send that email. Get a chance to win some, some hockey tickets here for Saturday. All right, so do that for me. I think that's about it. I'll have a few other things for you next week. Of course, we're doing live shows now, Tuesday, 1pm Mountain gonna keep the momentum going on that next week. Hey, I always appreciate the comments, the banter, the suggestions. I don't know if you noticed, but there's a couple shorter episodes now. Some people were suggesting putting out 20 minute clips and we're, we're working on that. So yeah, hopefully you saw that. But email me Ryan, at what the futurespodcast ca. I certainly appreciate the, the communication, the questions, the.
Hey, even if you want to come at me on, on something I said, you know, something I've said on this episode where you're disagreeing with me, hey, fire away. Let's have a discussion. All right folks, that's it for episode 80. My name is Ryan and I'm.
