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Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Alrighty, folks, welcome to the live show here of the what the Futures podcast, of course, recorded in the UPL studio. I hope you're having a fantastic Wednesday afternoon. You know, I've had a fun week.
[00:00:14] We recorded with, with Maury Miklich here. He's our, like our resident agronomist.
[00:00:22] He runs progro out of like Holden, Alberta. And we talked about fertilizer, you know, a little decline here in fertilizer prices. It's been a hot topic with the Lunchbox crew. But we talked fertilizer fertility plans. We talked about, you know, variable rate mapping, just how to, how can you be efficient here for growing this crop in 2026? Turning the page a little bit, maybe a bit soon. Maybe a bit soon, guys, but turning the page, planning some 2026, it's that time of year. You know, I know that harvest continues for many of you at least for the next week here. I know even for our farm where we're a couple days yet before we get this thing wrapped up. But you got to turn the page and we'll talk a little crop marketing here at the end. But this Week's episode, episode 95, we'll have Maury in there with fertilizer talk efficiency. We're also going to talk about your post harvest crop marketing plan as well. Alrighty. I want to just shed a little light here on the Crop Marketing Made Cool conference happening in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan this December. That's December 9th to 11th.
[00:01:38] And we have an application deadline coming up on Thanksgiving, October 13th.
[00:01:45] And you're going to say, ryan, what gives? Why are you putting a deadline on the application process?
[00:01:52] And just for the clear fact that when we approve applications, it doesn't mean that the farm buys a ticket immediately.
[00:02:03] In fact, turnaround is probably about a week before someone buys a ticket. But we're getting to that point where if all the applications that are approved, if people buy a ticket or a ticket or two, maybe it's usually like a ticket and a half, right? Is how it works out. Then we could be getting to the point here where, you know, we're approaching the sold out spot.
[00:02:29] And so the application deadline is out there for October 13th, for Thanksgiving to basically say that, hey, you know what, let's see where we're at on this day.
[00:02:39] Let's see, give everyone a chance that has an approved application to buy a ticket. It is still first come, first served. Just because you're approved, it doesn't mean you'll necessarily get a ticket.
[00:02:49] But let's make sure Those folks have a chance, right? And then we'll see where we sit.
[00:02:54] From my math here this afternoon, we have about 40 seats left. All right, around that. I haven't updated as of today. I know there was a few more sales today, but over 40 seats. We'll say 40 seats. We met with the conference room people, we met with the bars where we're hosting some of our events.
[00:03:16] And we are shuffling. We have been shuffling chairs and tables trying to make sure that we have everything figured out, that we're not too squished in there and that we have all the numbers sorted. All right, we're roughly, you could call it like 75% sold. And the applications that are approved today? Just the ones approved today. If they all came and bought, which I don't think they will, but if they did, we'd come in at like 88% sold, 90% sold.
[00:03:47] So you see what I mean, folks? Like, we are getting to that point where for the conference, you know, it's. Hey, is it going to sell it this week? No, absolutely not. In fact, it probably doesn't sell it to the end of the month, to be honest with you. At the end of October is what I. I'm thinking here. But I need to just let you know. All right, now, if you want details, go to ryandenee ca. You can get the details there.
[00:04:12] And on episode 95, Friday's episode of the podcast, I'm gonna run through the agenda, the official agenda.
[00:04:23] I'm waiting for just one more signature here from a keynote, but we'll keep them aside, everything else we can talk about, and I'll run through the speaker agenda. I also want to give a shout out to Simplehead. So I put a call, call to action, to say, hey, who do you wanna hear from at this conference?
[00:04:43] And it came back Simple Hedge. The boys over at Simple Hedge, Evan and I believe Mark, are the two gentlemen there. I know Evan's the one I chat with more often, but I think it's Mark. Hopefully it is Mark. So I apologize if I'm screwing that up. But they're coming back. They were with us last year in Drumheller, but they've had a bunch of changes, a bunch of updates.
[00:05:06] And so if you want to do risk management and hedging from your phone, there's an app that you can go and you can execute some of the stuff. And Evan was telling me about all the latest updates, and I said, man, someone brought this up to me the other day that you guys should be at this conference.
[00:05:24] And they were there last year, they did a great job. But they even have a different spin this year. They're going to enhance. And for those of you out there, farmers out there that are like, you know what, I'm ready to take it to the next level.
[00:05:37] You know, I'm very, I have a lot of knowledge about how to, how to execute these strategies.
[00:05:44] Like Evan was telling me stuff about even just some of the personalized strategies that come out and say, hey, you know, have you considered this? Have you considered that prompting you to think about some risk management? So I'm excited to have simple hedgeback in the fold here for Moosejaw. Alrighty.
[00:06:03] Any questions about conference stuff, you always go to the website, right? Ryandenee, Ca. You can check out anything there, Message me on X, send me a message, Instagram, wherever. And of course you can email me ryan farming.com that'll come to me and I can help answer any questions people ask, like, what time does it start? You know, if we're going to do this, like, when's it start? When does it end? Well, registration is the afternoon of the 9th, or it's all afternoon. Right. You were staying at a nice hotel with some amenities that you may want to take advantage of. So we're going to do that.
[00:06:37] It's jam packed. I was going over the agenda with Sarah from Triggergrain yesterday. Sarah is like a co emcee and I was like, Sarah, like, is this too much? And she's like, man, Ryan, you've got. There's a lot, there's a lot here, but it all looks great. So, yeah, so looking forward to it. Looking forward to running through the agenda in more detail.
[00:07:01] All right.
[00:07:02] The reason I want to go live today is we have a duck race.
[00:07:06] I have a duck race set up in the background. I'm going to shuffle the characters here. We have like a dozen, sorry, 11 ducks racing in the background. I'm going to hit the start button. Of course you can't hear this. It's through my headphones. You can't see this either. But we were doing the voicemail. Sorry, there's quacking going on in my headphones right now.
[00:07:28] So we were doing this, the voicemail feature. You go to the website, hit, you know, send voicemail. And I got voicemails from Ian, Corey, Val, John, Carl, Allison, Kenneth, Jerome, Donna Taylor, Jacob Keaton.
[00:07:48] And we were, we were playing today. The duck race was for these two yeti cups, this multi tool and a little bit of liquid courage. And that's going to go to Carl.
[00:08:00] Carl J. I believe it's Carl Jansen from.
[00:08:03] He's like Northern Alberta. So congratulations, Carl, and thank you to everyone for participating. I gotta turn this thing off. Alrighty. Thanks to everyone that participated in the voicemail for the month of September.
[00:08:19] The fun's not over, folks. We're gonna continue to do the voicemail for the month of October. And just one quick thing.
[00:08:28] I've been responding to the voicemails, all right? I go, I get a voicemail. I click a button. It says, send response. I hit that response, and I've been typing in my name and my email. I thought that's what it was asking for.
[00:08:41] And I've been sending the replies to myself accidentally.
[00:08:46] So if you haven't heard from me yet, apparently my technology skills are a little. Not very sharp right now.
[00:08:54] And I'm gonna give it another try here. But I thought I was responding to everybody and then I was looking at my email. I'm like, it's kind of weird. It's like it's coming back to me. So I messaged John. I said, john, did you get a voicemail from me? And he's like, no, no, I haven't seen anything Orion. So we'll figure that out. We'll get that working. Now the voicemail for the month of October is gonna be sponsored by the lunchbox crew. Now, the lunchbox crew is my spin on crop marketing. I was chatting with Devin this morning. He's in the lunchbox Crew. And he said what I appreciate the most about it is the. Is the community. The. The, you know, lunchbox crew is reviewing canola, different canola varieties, talking about performance.
[00:09:36] And anyways, he said the community, that's one of the big reasons that I'm in the lunchbox group.
[00:09:42] So of course you can get those details on the website. And there is a spot if you want to join the wait list. But I will say we have up to five spots here available post harvest. So if you want my spin on crop marketing again, head to the website. You can fill out a form there or you can email me ryannyfarming.com and I can give you more details on the Lunchbox Crew. So it looks like I'm going to say five spots available here, post harvest.
[00:10:12] Now for a prize. I don't have it yet. I did not get to drive. I have to go to Killam, Alberta to pick this thing up.
[00:10:19] All right. It's an LED light.
[00:10:22] You can see the UPL one behind me.
[00:10:25] It's an LED light. It's a very cool light.
[00:10:28] I can't. I'm just gonna have to show you when I have it next week.
[00:10:32] But it's a John Deere LED light. Okay, that's what I'll say. And so go send in your voicemails. And for this month, I know sometimes we get a little personal. The voicemail was quiet, but let's dive into your crop marketing plan.
[00:10:51] All right? Let's dive into your post harvest crop marketing plan. And all I want you to do, you just say, send me the voicemail. All right? And say, hey, Ryan, it's, you know, Farmer A and 100%, yes, I have sat down and created my updated my crop marketing plan post harvest. It is so important that you take time to update your plan after the crops in the bin. Even that time. Like, I know it's a little bit dry in parts of Alberta, so maybe you're not out there putting in juice and NH3, but there's that soft spot. It's that time where you should actually unwind a little bit too, and get through the harvest hangover, but that time where, you know, you should just kind of relax a little bit, but also spend a half day in the office just going over your post harvest crop marketing plan. Because I, I know what you want to do. You want to go there, you want to lock up the bins, you want to stick it to the line companies and say, ha, there you go. You know, and prices are going to climb and sure they will a little bit. You're seeing, you know, yellow pea values are on the rebound, right? You're seeing green peas, maple peas, lentils, all that stuff's on the rebound. That is farmers locking up the bins, demand still there, and prices climbing 100%. Right? It can be there, but it's not like that for every single crop.
[00:12:18] And I'm not one to sit there and say, I'm just going to store this whole thing and figure it out later. Especially when the bills and the cash flow need to come. I don't, I don't have the privilege of chatting with a bunch of farms that can just throw their crop in the bin and say, ah, let's deal with it next spring, next summer.
[00:12:36] Most farms need to generate some cash here in the fall, need to pay rent, need to pay these large, you know, repair bills, employee salaries, maybe pre buy fertilizer. Right, the fertilizer market, urea prices dropping across the prairies because you guys are inactive right now. That's one of the reasons, okay, we're going to Talk about that more on episode 95. But make that post harvest crop marketing plan right. Send that voicemail to me. Just give me, I want to hear the confidence in your voice that you've sat down and tweaked that plan moving forward for this winter. All right, now just a couple crop marketing things before I hit the end button here. Canola basis.
[00:13:18] I know nobody likes the article written this week or whenever it was on the western producer that says this. Canola crops, potentially a whopper crops, not all in the bin yet. All right?
[00:13:31] And so again, I chat with people and we talk about stuff and from a yield perspective and you believe what you want to believe, I'll believe what I want to believe and we'll move on. All right, we'll agree to disagree, but the market is also giving you some signals here. Okay, so I talked about the luxury of not having the luxury to put everything in the bin till next summer. If that's what you, if you can do that, then by all means you don't have to worry about any of this stuff right now.
[00:14:05] But if canola movement is very important to your farm operation to pay bills here during the winter months, like we got a little bit of a wake up call in portions of Alberta if you, if you're delivering it to Yorkton, Saskatchewan to a crusher, this is old hat for you. If you're up in the piece, this is old, old news for you.
[00:14:25] You're like, ryan, we have to buy our space all the time. You know, we have to get there and get that basis, otherwise it ain't going to move. Well, we had a couple crushers here in Alberta where you're not necessarily used to them filling up as fast, you know, on October 1st.
[00:14:43] But if I picked up the phone and called into Fort Saskatchewan today and said, hello, I would like to sell you some canola, they'd say, fantastic, we'll see you in 2026.
[00:14:55] Now that doesn't work for everybody.
[00:14:57] You know, the end of the year is a big time to pay bills. The many want to, you know, buy inputs and stuff later on in the year. But that's the phone call, right? That's the phone call. That's the answer you get. You know, I was talking to another crush plant this morning. Let's go to Camrose.
[00:15:15] Not as dire, but you pick up the phone, can you get some November done? Sure.
[00:15:20] But I still laugh. We had a buyer a month ago tell us we were nuts for locking in a minus 15, and I believe it was a minus 34 today, I believe it was a minus 34.
[00:15:32] So Cole, we, we got, we got a one small win on that one. All right? One small win over that, over that buyer. Anyways, the market is telling you something here, folks. And so, you know, okay, well, January, that ain't gonna work for me. So I started looking around.
[00:15:46] You know, I went to the, to the.
[00:15:49] I still say Bungie Vitera. I have to get over that, guys. But it's hard looking around. It ain't better anywhere else, right? And you say, well, Ryan, that's because everyone's overdoing it here. This crop isn't that big and basis is going to improve. It will improve 100%, it will improve.
[00:16:04] But for now, the, the DECA stack against us here just a little bit.
[00:16:11] Our supply is going to our crushers, which are doing fine, margins are fine. They're going to hum along as fast as they can.
[00:16:19] But you need that little export. And you know, I said it.
[00:16:22] I don't know, I've been saying the last couple of weeks, I don't think the low of the canola market is here quite yet from a futures perspective. You know, we traded a five handle year last night recovered thanks to Trump and some comments around China and U.S. soybean demand. So soybeans rallied, bean oil rallied, canola followed suit.
[00:16:45] Did we score the low here at 5, what, 96 off the navi.
[00:16:49] It'd be nice if we did, but I don't think so.
[00:16:53] And you know, I'll just say avoid the noise. Like you could be mad. Be mad. Be mad at the situation. Be mad at the lack of initiative from our government. Be mad at the tariffs, like 100% be mad.
[00:17:12] But don't forget to take care of yourself to take care of your crop marketing and your, your farm and your business.
[00:17:18] So you can be mad, but you know, if moving canola before Christmas is important to you, then it's important to sit down and figure out your plan. If moving Canola by February is important to you, figure out your plan. If you want to be bullish, basis, hey, let's be bullish next spring, next summer, I'm with you. You know, we can be bullish then.
[00:17:39] But over the next couple months here, I'm okay, for me, if I screw it up and I locked in a minus 35 or a minus 40 and it goes to a minus 30 or minus 20, I can live with that. Because I got the futures I need to handle right? I can live with that. So anyways, if I get it wrong, that's where it's going. But in the meantime it's backing up. Supply is backing up a little bit. And be mad, be as mad as you want, but don't forget about your farm business, all right? And do what's right for you. Okay.
[00:18:11] Feed barley bids. I was saying, hey, we were holding steady for the first, you know, like first three weeks of September. A little dip now in feed barley values down about five bucks a ton this week in Lethbridge.
[00:18:23] So just something to take note of there.
[00:18:25] Yellow pea prices here, some positivity now. Yellow peas up $8 again for yellow peas in, in, in Alberta. I, I would think the low in the Marketplace, I saw 725 as a low. I, I think it's probably 750. And you can go and do a little fishing here. You can go and set a target and see what happens because again, you're kind of controlling this at the time, at this time and there's some demand there. So just, you know, little positivity, green peas, maple peas, little positivity in all of those. And then milling oats.
[00:18:58] You know, I read like the saddest milling oat price story earlier today.
[00:19:03] You know, they have the violin out but yet over in my neck of the woods, oat prices are climbing.
[00:19:12] I'm not exactly sure what, where the disconnect is yet, but I'm going to dig into that and try to find some clarity around it.
[00:19:19] But if you are east, if you're out in Saskatchewan and you're east, you know, maybe take a peek west and see because you can go, you know, you can move a lot of oats, you can freight them over. There's a, there's a, seems to be a wide gap out there in price and you may want to investigate what's going on. All right, that's all I have from a markets perspective. All right, folks. So, hey, a 20 minute live show. What the heck am I doing? Still talking. Thanks for tuning in. If you hung out on X, thank you. I appreciate it. If you are on YouTube, thumbs up. I appreciate that as well and look forward to chatting with you guys on episode 95, which will come out bright and early Friday morning. All right, folks, for the what's Futures podcast, my name is Ryan and I'm out of here.